RSMS NCAA Week 6

[RSMS9999]

Season Record: 21-11-2 (+13.90 Units)
Week 1: 4-5-1 -1.65 UnitsWeek 2: 3-1-1 +4.60 Units
Week 3: 2-2-0-1.05 Units
Week 4: 6-2-0 +4.15 Units
Week 5: 6-1-0 +7.85 Units
Sides (ATS): 12-10-3 +2.30 Units
Sides (ML): 0-1 -1.65 Units
Totals: 5-0 +8.50 Units
Parlays: 2-0 + 4.00 Units
Teasers: 1-0 + 1.50 Units
Props: 1-0 + 1.00 Units



Finally had my breakout saturday last week, as it all came together. I will probably come back down to earth this week but who knows. i only can wish Bodog would offer more totals.

No lines posted for me yet, but STRONG leans on TCU, TCU-UTAH Under, Arizona + points, Michigan - pts, Kentucky + pts and Kansas + points.

Official Play List

Florida St./North Carolina St. Under 39 (-110) 1.5 Units L

TCU/Utah Under 42 (-110) 1.5 Units W

Purdue/Iowa Over 53 (-115) 1.5 Units W

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -28 (-130, bought 1 point) 1.5 Units L

Michigan Wolverines -14 (-130, bought 1 point) 1.5 Units

Kentucky Wildcats +4 1/2 (-110) 2 Units

Oklahoma St. Cowboys -3 (-110) 2 Units

Mississippi St. Bulldogs +21 1/2 (-120, bought 1/2 point) 1 Unit L :moose::moose::moose::moose::moose::moose::moose:

Viginia/East Carolina Under 44 (-115) 1.5 Units

 

[RSMS9999]

South Carolina Gamecocks Under 7 Wins
(3-2, 1-2)
Made it much closer thatn I thought vs. Auburn. I think it was more a fired up performance on Nat'l TV than a statement. If they dont win their next two, they will be hard pressed to win 7 let alone 8. i hope/think they wont.

Alabama Crimson Tide Under 8 1/2 Wins
(3-2, 1-2)
I forgot how much of a joke their schedule is. They might be better than I thought, but winning 2 out of 3 against Tennessee, LSU and Auburn? HAHAHA. This one is safe, but it will take awhile.

UCLA Bruins Under 6 1/2 Wins
(3-1, 1-1)
Their 31-0 win over Stanford is the most misleading final score this year. They struggled with one of the worst teams in college football. However with ASU falling apart and WSU and OSU at home, they might squeeze out 7. A little worried.

Louisville Cardinals Over 10 Wins
Louisville Cardinals To Win Big East Title 3/2
(4-0, 0-0)
Waiting for WVU

Nebraska CornHuskers Over 8 1/2 Wins
Nebraska CornHuskers To Win Big XII Title 5/1
(4-1, 1-0)
What the hell happened in Lincoln. They should have rolled Kansas but didnt. A wins a win, but i hope that was an aberration.

 

[RSMS9999]

still waiting on the lines for tcu-utah.

First Midseason Future:

To Win ACC Championship
-With the new ACC championship game, betting who will win the conference really comes down to picking a division winner, and then getting yourself a great hedging position. I'm focusing on the Coastal Division, which has three "contenders" and three of the worst teams in college football in North Carolina, Duke and UVA. The only 3 with a real shot at winning the division title are the U, Va Tech and Ga Tech. Miami has the easiest path through this horrid conference with plenty of shitty opponents surrounding a visit to Atlanta and hosting Va Tech. Overall, I think this team has a great chance to win a lot of games, but are way to flawed a team to run the table. I'm projecting a 9-3 season here. Va Tech was exposed last week at home vs. Ga Tech. Lets face it, this is not a very good team, and even with the schedule, it is safe to say that they wont run the table. That leaves GT, as the remaining "contender" in the ACC. I think they lose to Clemson, but beat Miami to claim the Coastal. Bottom Line, the Coastal Division rests on the GT-Miami Game, and in Atlanta, Im not betting with the Canes. As to actually winning the championship game, Clemson or FSU aren't terribly frightening, and GT has a great shot against them. Bodog inexplicably has VT 2/1 and MIA 3/1 to win the ACC and GT 11/2. Considering I think GT has the best shot to take this division, I have to take this value.

Pick: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets "To Win ACC Championship" 11/2 1.09/6 Units

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

If you're gonna take a shot at the Kentucky + the points, I'd go ahead and grab the over as well. gl with the plays you decide on

 

[RSMS9999]

Florida St. @ North Carolina St.
10/5/2006 7:00pm

I try hard to not play games just because they are the only ones on on a weekday, but this one caught my eye. FSU is still overrated as that close win at Miami just confirmed what I already knew, both teams were not very good. They have a pitiful offense, but their defense is pretty decent. The problem with going against them here is that NCST is a terrible team, flat out horrendous. Yes they beat BC, which is in my opinion the most overrated team in college football year after year, but they are still bad. They will struggle to score vs. this FSU offense, but their defense MIGHT be able to keep them in the game. Regardless, I expect both these teams to struggle mightlily to score. FSU will dominate, but I don't think they have the offense to put up serious pts.

Pick: Florida St./North Carolina St. Under 39 (-110) 1.5 Units

I will definantly be betting on the later game. I have not decided on whether to play TCU +3 and Under 40 single, parlayed or teased, or a combination. I feel very good about TCU getting points here and the Under, though I think the under is pretty fairly set here. probably will go with single bets on the side and total with a small teaser, but I haven't mad eup my mind yet.

 

[texsn95]

If you don't like Bodog, why not change books??

 

[RSMS9999]

SATURDAYS PLAYS

Stanford @ Notre Dame
10/7/2006 2:30pm

Before the season I pledged not to bet on the most overvalued team in college football, but I broke that vs. Michigan ST. I lost after the missed extra point gave them a three point win instead of 4 (i had -3.5). I can't beleive I am seeing another good spot for the Irish. This is less about them thatn the absolute horridness that is Stanford football. They have no defense and their offense consists of Trent Edwards getting sacked. I really can not see Stanford reaching double digits in this game. On the other side, I think ND will explode offensively, 40s or 50s most likely. 4 touchdowns is not enough in this game. I am not betting my usual 2 units on ATS plays because I bought a point (to way overjuice it) and I am never comfortable with huge spread games. However, I am very confident with this pick.

Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -28 (-130, bought 1 point) 1.5 Units

 

[RSMS9999]

If you don't like Bodog, why not change books??

too complicated to get into. Especially now with the whole legislation issue now appearing.

If you're gonna take a shot at the Kentucky + the points, I'd go ahead and grab the over as well. gl with the plays you decide on

probably leaning towards just the over instead of the cats right now.

 

[RSMS9999]

TCU @ Utah
10/5/2006 9:00pm

First of all I originally really liked TCU game but some things recently have caused me to change my mind. I think both defenses in this game are underrated and I am not scared of either offense. I will continue to bet against the Dudwig train (Utah OC) as I predicted that Utah's offfense would struggle last week too. My gut feeling is a Utah blowout but I have no idea why. Regardless, i think that both defenses play well,keeping this under the total

Pick: TCU/Utah Under 42 (-110) 1.5 Units

 

[RSMS9999]

more saturday plays:

Michigan St. @ Michigan
10/7/2006 4:30pm

I know that MSu seems to be a popular pick but I have no idea why. This team has quit folks. They will not be able to challenge a focused and determined Michigan at home. I expect this game to be close at the beginning (1st quarter) but not for long. Michigan will go up by 10 or so and then MSU will be done, with the Wolverines rolling at the end. Something like a 38-20 victory. 17 1/2 was too much to play, 14 even with the juice is too good to pass up. Like the ND pick, with the fairly big line, as well as the high juice, I will settle for 1.5 units.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -14 (-130, bought 1 point) 1.5 Units

South Carolina @ Kentucky
10/7/2006 7:00pm

My thoughts on SC have been expressed on all my posts this season (see futures) so it is established I dont liek that team this year. They cost me aunit last week vs. Auburn and impressed everyone with their solid showing. I still think they are not that good and that they are overvalued here. Looking at their schedule, these are two CRITICAL road games (UK, and VU) for bowl eligiblity. These guys haven't been on the road since september 2nd and I think that Kentucky will be fired up to face them. The Wildcats will score on SC pretty easily in my opinion. UK's defense sucks but hopefully their crowd will rattle SC's young offense. I think this is a very close game and UK wins, but in a game like this 4 and a half will be golden. I know I am getting a shit line, but the "sharp" movement is a good sign.

Pick: Kentucky Wildcats +4 1/2 (-110) 2 Units

Oklahoma St. @ Kansas St.
10/7/2006 3:30pm

Honestly, I don't know much about this game. I know OSU is far from a good team, and KSU is even further. I think KSU is the weaker team here and will struggle to get on the board and OSU will get enough to cover. There is also a strong possibility of a push (another shitty line). The board seems to be solidly on OSU so I will put some green on them too.

Pick: Oklahoma St. Cowboys -3 (-110) 2 Units

West Virginia @ Mississippi St.
10/7/2006 2:30pm

I really do not know why I am playing this game. I am fully aware of teh ineptness of the MSU Bulldogs, but I just have a gut feeling that this is a very close game. I have no idea why. This looks like a very sharp play as the public is all over WVU but the line dropped from 28 to 21!!! However, the "sharp" value is most likely gone at this point so that is not a reason to play this. Logically, I think that MSU could slow down this WV offense to a point and tey might be able to get some points at home. Why not?

Pick: Mississippi St. Bulldogs +21 1/2 (-120, bought 1/2 point) 1 Unit

leans remaining (possible plays)

-Arizona +12.5
-Tennessee -3
-Virginia/ECU Under 42
-Kansas, Kansas/Tex A&M Under 53

 

[B.A.R.]

On Kentucky and Okie with yas...

GL this weekend.

I do think that MSU will quit soon but they have been fired up all week in papers shit talking and all that. Drew Stanton has a lot to play foir for his professional career. This team has boatloads of talent and will make UM or tOSU sweat here the next few weeks. Then they will fold..lol

 

[RSMS9999]

BAR

- I think that MSU will come out fired up in the first quarter and make it a good game early on (I will probably begin doubting my pick) But I really believe that once Michigan starts pounding the ball on the ground and establishes a lead, MSU will fold right then and there.

 

[RSMS9999]

Purdue @ Iowa
10/7/2006 12:00pm

Both these teams are a little beat up after misleading undefeated starts. I dont trust either defense to play well but Ill take Tate and IA to score comehwere around 35 today in a bounce back. Purdue wont play much D, but they should get some ppoints too.

Pick: Purdue/Iowa Over 53 (-115) 1.5 Units

 

[RSMS9999]

wow, fuckin west virginia. biggest joke ive ever seen. I cant fuckin believe I lost that.

Virginia @ East Carolina
10/7/2006 6:00pm

A couple of cancerous teams going at it today. I think that Virginia's defense is improving. If they are going to win this game, it will be because of ball control and slowing down ECU's offense. On the other side, I think Virginia will struggle to score. This looks to me like one fo those 20-17 games. Lets see what happens.

Pick: Viginia/East Carolina Under 44 (-115) 1.5 Units