Royals open at -120 WORLD SERIES Discussion

it's my belief that KC is here two years in a row in spite of their manager, but I live in NYC and completely disagree that Collins was ever in a place to be fired because of anything but the shitty roster he'd been given and how changes eventually have to be made even though it's not the manager's fault at all (see Bud Black).

He had always done a great job making a team without any sort of hitting competitive and I really heard nothing legitimate about him losing his job this year at any point. I think you're either mistaken or gotta question why you utilize upstate information when no professional teams are located there (even though I know NYM country extends up that far)
 
GWarner27 said:
it's my belief that KC is here two years in a row in spite of their manager, but I live in NYC and completely disagree that Collins was ever in a place to be fired because of anything but the shitty roster he'd been given and how changes eventually have to be made even though it's not the manager's fault at all (see Bud Black).

He had always done a great job making a team without any sort of hitting competitive and I really heard nothing legitimate about him losing his job this year at any point. I think you're either mistaken or gotta question why you utilize upstate information when no professional teams are located there (even though I know NYM country extends up that far)
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It's not upstate info...I said because of proximity we have access to NYC stuff. SNY, for instance, is part of our local cable package. MSG is as well. Surprised they mentioned it after Game 4 if it never happened. They must have had bad info.

I don't disagree that he would have been fired for his roster more than anything, but I didn't say he was going to be fired because he's a bad manager (ffs, I said I liked him and thought he was a good manager), I said he was rumored to be fired.
 
And jeebus, maybe the talks were nothing more than talk from certain media members and not too serious, but googling Terry Collins fired, or Terry Collins almost fired pulls up dozens of articles/links from before the season up until about the beginning of July. You really didn't hear any of that at all?
 
gotcha RE:cable, Darling being in the broadcast booth regularly during the season and then coincidentally handling the NLCS gives him a ton of opportunity to write his own story filled with much more drama than there actually was flying around the team. That's the Boston media curse right there and there's definitely truth to it in NY, too...

there have been rumors the Mets have been talking about shuffling their team up since i moved here in 2012 when the squad was nothing close to this one's talent, but that's pure speculation that isn't meant to be believed imho. I don't think Collins was ever really close to even being discussed this year thanks to how bad WAS was as NYM was barely expected to finish over .500 and were jockeying for 1st place all season long
 
Lareux said:
But the opposite can also be said to be true...there is nothing to back up saying that experience is THAT important. By saying something is 'overrated' doesn't mean, in the least bit, that it is not valuable. It means that it's OVER rated...it's made too much of, people put too much stock in it. You certainly cannot say that there is proof, beyond any doubt, that experience is any more important than talent, coaching, or many other factors.

In this world where everything has to be the best or the worst, and people like you like to talk in such superlatives, there are many, many, many things that are 'overrated' these days. Playoff experience is one of them.
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It's not just experience of the players. It's experience of the coaching. The coaching aspect has been documented. I remember reading something about it last year. I'll have to look it up sometime. Coaching experience and team chemistry wins championships. That's been studied.
 
Close series, imo. Offense is about equal, but KC is deeper. KC will be able to manufacture runs better. Royals have the better defense by a long shot. Mets have a huge starting pitching edge, Royals have a big bullpen edge; better closer (though I trust Familia), but can also bring in Madsen, Herrera, Morales, Medlen.

This series comes down to if the Royals can force the Mets starter out of the game in the 6th/7th inning and if they can manage 2 runs a game off the Mets starter. The Royals have the advantage if any game is tied after the 6th inning, but we could see a couple games where the Mets are up 3-4 runs the first half of the game.

I favor Royals ever so slightly.
 
Went with KC +100 for series.

Experience edge, BP edge, lineup edge, home field in a possible game 7.
 
C-MAN said:
If Murphy cools off this could be a 4-0 or 4-1 type series.
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Just don't see Royals beating Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard in a 4-0 sweep or five games. All of these guys are capable of going deep into games and all have pitched well on the road. Believe Mets will win at least one of the games in K.C. and don't think they'll lose three straight at home. I'm old school but good pitching beats good hitting.
 
the mutts coaching isn't anything to brag about, but they win the managerial category by default here, and by a large margin...yeast makes bonehead and inexcusable decisions quite frequently. he is just a horrible manager.
 
Its not ingame managing that's impressive by the mets coaches/manger.... its the preparation for their opponent and figuring out how to take advantage of their weaknesses

hopefully the mets pitchers throw more changeups than fastballs
 
17 of the last 20 teams which won game 1 of the World Series went on to win the World Series.... including the last 5.
 
aplous said:
I like KC tonight and then will go with Mets for the series after G1.....
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Don't necessarily like KC unless I get a + on NYM, but agree here

geezer said:
Just don't see Royals beating Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard in a 4-0 sweep or five games. All of these guys are capable of going deep into games and all have pitched well on the road. Believe Mets will win at least one of the games in K.C. and don't think they'll lose three straight at home. I'm old school but good pitching beats good hitting.
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You are old, but you are right

nbafan88 said:
I think the mets offense is being overlooked a little bit
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KC doesn't hit HR so I'm not sure you can really say they're much better than NYM at this point

Dollaz said:
Close series, imo. Offense is about equal, but KC is deeper. KC will be able to manufacture runs better. Royals have the better defense by a long shot. Mets have a huge starting pitching edge, Royals have a big bullpen edge; better closer (though I trust Familia), but can also bring in Madsen, Herrera, Morales, Medlen.

This series comes down to if the Royals can force the Mets starter out of the game in the 6th/7th inning and if they can manage 2 runs a game off the Mets starter. The Royals have the advantage if any game is tied after the 6th inning, but we could see a couple games where the Mets are up 3-4 runs the first half of the game.

I favor Royals ever so slightly.
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To be fair, medlen pitched mop-up duty once and morales didn't get a meaningful out that I can remember. Also can't believe you have any faith in Madson, he's been complete dogshit only able to get hanging cutters over the plate.

Clippard-Familia vs Herrera-Davis is pretty even at this point imo and the SP difference is going to decide this series
 
tough loss for under backers, felt it was right (and have no idea how Escobar was given a HR on what should have been an easy F8), and NYM backers cuz they gave that one away.

Good for Adam's theory doe
 
can't be that high, home teams are pretty much supposed to a win and a split was probably what NYM had in mind anyway.

I would expect KC is now the favorite, so -120? I'm hoping for something above that
 
Cue the twilight zone music. The last time a home team won Game 1 of the WS by 1 run was in 2000. In that game...

(1) The home team didn't score between the 2nd & 5th innings.

(2) The home team scored 2 runs in the 6th inning.

(3) The home team trailed in the bottom of the 9th.

(4) The game required extra innings.

(5) The Mets were the losing team.


Who said lightning doesn't strike twice?
 
GWarner27 said:
can't be that high, home teams are pretty much supposed to a win and a split was probably what NYM had in mind anyway.

I would expect KC is now the favorite, so -120? I'm hoping for something above that
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-170 will be the low end. No chance of -120 being out there
 
What a good game though. Had a little bit of everything. We could be in for an epic series.
 
Some quick historical stats of whatever value, reflecting on a couple of aspects of the nature of KC's Game 1 win (stats in gray don't mirror KC's spot, but are included for sake of comparison).


(1) KC scoring a 1st inning run in a Game 1 win is reflected in WS history as follows...

- Teams are 23-10 in the WS when they've scored a 1st inning run in a Game 1 win.
- Teams are 15-5 when they've managed this feat with HFA.

In 1969 the Championship Series were introduced for each league, so teams managing a 1st inning run in a Game 1 win...

- have gone 9-7 in WS played between 1903 to 1968 (5-3 with HFA)
- have gone 14-3 in WS played since 1969 (10-2 with HFA)

The last 12 teams to manage the feat have all won the WS (including San Fran last year). The last team to fail to win the WS after managing the feat was the Brewers in 1982 (& they didn't have HFA).



(2) KC winning Game 1 by a 1 run margin is reflected in history as follows...

Teams have gone 25-13 in the WS after winning Game 1 by a 1 run margin.

- Home teams have gone 13-6 : 8-2 when they also scored 1st in said win.
- Road teams have gone 12-7 : 10-5 when they also scored 1st in said win.

In 1969 the Championship Series were introduced for each league, so teams managing a 1 run Game 1 WS win...

- have gone 12-9 in WS played between 1903 to 1968 (6-5 with HFA)
- have gone 13-4 in WS played since 1969 (7-1 with HFA)



(3) Last and somewhat least: In WS history, there's only been 4 previous instances of a Game 1 going to extra innings and being decided by a 1 run margin. All 4 of those WS (1924, 1946, 1977, 2000) were won by the team with HFA, even though the team w/out HFA won those 4 games 3-1 SU [fixed] (bolded years won by road team).

[edit: For the 2nd time in this thread, my misreading of the 1958 WS screws with a stat I post. That WS saw game 1 won by the team w/HFA in extras by 1 run, but they ended up losing the WS, hence undermining the post above I've now 'dehighlighted' (without adjusting re the new stat). Naturally I always try to ensure everything I post is accurate.]
 
If you like the Mets in game 2, isn't a F5 play a better option? Better SP and you eliminate KC bullpen advantage and late game heroics.
 
C-MAN said:
If you like the Mets in game 2, isn't a F5 play a better option? Better SP and you eliminate KC bullpen advantage and late game heroics.
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can't disagree, though i'm not sure their bullpen is that much better than clippard/familia despite last night's results
 
and i'd assume you're paying extra juice for the 1H versus getting some back for the perceived KC bullpen advantage
 
sitting on a decent Royals +100 series wager and thinking about betting a little on the Mets tonight. Mets probably going to win.
 
GWarner27 said:
Don't necessarily like KC unless I get a + on NYM, but agree here



You are old, but you are right



KC doesn't hit HR so I'm not sure you can really say they're much better than NYM at this point



To be fair, medlen pitched mop-up duty once and morales didn't get a meaningful out that I can remember. Also can't believe you have any faith in Madson, he's been complete dogshit only able to get hanging cutters over the plate.

Clippard-Familia vs Herrera-Davis is pretty even at this point imo and the SP difference is going to decide this series
Click to expand...


I put more stock in the a players year than I do performance in a small playoff sample. Madsen is a good reliever, Im not going to change my opinion on of him based on 5 innings. I don't see how Clip/Familia is close to Herrara/Davis. Davies is probably the best reliever in baseball right now. Davis is better than Familia and Herrera is better than Clippard. Clippard, btw, gave up 1.4 homers per 9 this year so I have a hard time trusting him. He is tough on lefties, but if hitters can lay off the fastball up, they typically have success off him. I also consider how much his velocity is down right now.

After that you have Morales/Medlen/Madsen/Duffy/Hochevar vs. Gilmartin/Reed/Robles/Niese/Colon. I may hold Mets tickets in individual games this year and I know Im not comfortable with any reliever in the game besides Familia.

As a Nats fan, I've been scared of Clippard for years, but he has pitched well for the most part. But, he's worse now (with less velocity) than he was with the Nats.
 
GW- I love your content, but I don't see your point of view. For ease, I will use ERA, but other advanced statitics show similar trends.

ERA KC PEN:
Davis 0.94
Madson 2.13
Herrera 2.71
Morales 3.18
Duffy 0- as reliever (small sample. But had 2.53 ERA last year as a starter and looks better as a reliever) as starter had 4.08 ERA
Medlen 2.51
Hockever 3.73


NYM:
Fanukua 1.85
Reed 1.17 (small sample, 3.38 overall)
Clippard 3.06
Robles 3.67
Colon 0 (small sample, 4.16 overall)
Neise 2.45 (small sample, 4.13 overall)
 
Dollaz said:
GW- I love your content, but I don't see your point of view. For ease, I will use ERA, but other advanced statitics show similar trends.

ERA KC PEN:
Davis 0.94
Madson 2.13
Herrera 2.71
Morales 3.18
Duffy 0- as reliever (small sample. But had 2.53 ERA last year as a starter and looks better as a reliever) as starter had 4.08 ERA
Medlen 2.51
Hockever 3.73


NYM:
Fanukua 1.85
Reed 1.17 (small sample, 3.38 overall)
Clippard 3.06
Robles 3.67
Colon 0 (small sample, 4.16 overall)
Neise 2.45 (small sample, 4.13 overall)
Click to expand...

ERAs for relievers are pretty insignificant. This isn't what should be looked at when comparing BPs. I'm not agreeing with you, GW, or anyone, just saying that ERAs for relievers don't mean much.

:shake:
 
Lareux said:
ERAs for relievers are pretty insignificant. This isn't what should be looked at when comparing BPs. I'm not agreeing with you, GW, or anyone, just saying that ERAs for relievers don't mean much.

:shake:
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Yeah, agreed. Thats why I said for ease.

The advanced stats and cumulative stats show KC with the edge in the bullpen. But, bullpens are shorter in the playoffs (last night, notwithstanding) thus, it's hard to illustrate without a long post.
 
Dollaz said:
Yeah, agreed. Thats why I said for ease.

The advanced stats and cumulative stats show KC with the edge in the bullpen. But, bullpens are shorter in the playoffs (last night, notwithstanding) thus, it's hard to illustrate without a long post.
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:shake:
 
If I made it sound like the two bullpens are even, then that was not my intent. I just think the KC bullpen is overrated at this point because it's talked about like its the best thing ever and while I do see it as an advantage, I don't see it being landslides better than NYM's.

Davis may be the best in the game, Herrera is lights out, too. Behind them I think they can be had and Yost is still foolishly using Madson instead of Hochevar, which is great for my NYM series play
 
Anybody have current Mets lineup numbers vs Cueto? Looking at a couple of player props and want to make sure no bad history.
 
C-MAN said:
Anybody have current Mets lineup numbers vs Cueto? Looking at a couple of player props and want to make sure no bad history.
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Johnny Cueto

(kc) - throws R vs. nym - 8:07 PM EDT - Kauffman Stadium [SIZE=-1]RotoGuru ESPN MLB Yahoo BB-Ref FanGraphs[/SIZE]
2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSAVGwOBA
20653200101100.600.6671.0001.667.685
7116123002234410.250.438.7501.188.490
14130256001445402.240.367.360.727.332
83181530011321000.200.278.400.678.291
25661100000000.167.167.333.500.211
6619173000011100.176.263.176.440.214
5513122000001201.167.231.167.397.189
8220000000100.000.000.000.000.000
4691109421304811142313.223.327.383.710.318

<tbody>
[TD="align: left"] BATTER [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"] NP [/TD]
[TD="width: 30"] PA [/TD]
[TD="width: 30"] AB [/TD]
[TD="width: 30"] H [/TD]

[TD="width: 20"] R [/TD]

[TD="width: 40"] OBP [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"] SLG [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"] OPS [/TD]

[TD="align: left"] other site links[/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Travis

d'Arnaud [SIZE=-1]R[/SIZE][SUP]^6[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Curtis Granderson
[SIZE=-1]L[/SIZE][SUP]^1[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] David Wright
[SIZE=-1]R[/SIZE][SUP]^2[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Lucas Duda
[SIZE=-1]L[/SIZE][SUP]^5[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Wilmer Flores
[SIZE=-1]R[/SIZE][SUP]^8[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Daniel Murphy
[SIZE=-1]L[/SIZE][SUP]^3[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Juan Lagares
[SIZE=-1]R[/SIZE][SUP]^9[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Yoenis Cespedes
[SIZE=-1]R[/SIZE][SUP]^4[/SUP][/TD]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=-1] | RotoGuru | ESPN | MLB | Yahoo | BB-Ref | FanGraphs |[/SIZE][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]Active totals for
New York Mets:[/TD]

</tbody>
 
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