***Round 2 Lex***

Lexington 125

Lexington 125

I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Bills tt o23.5-122

10 units


James Cook rush yds o77.5-118

Bills-108

4 units each



Cook td-118

Bills 2ndh tds o1.5+138

Bills+4.5/Rams ML +121

2 units each



Keon 40+ & td +950

1 unit



+5000

Cook 100+rush & td
Shakir 4+ rec
Knox TD
Sutton 30+ rec
Harvey 40 + rush

1 unit



+3400

Cook 110+ rush & TD
Kincaid 50+ rec & TD

half unit
 
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Well now it’s at 23.5-103. Never claimed to be good at predicting movement but I never thought was coming. I’ll be back with thoughts on the matchup… injuries and rest are my biggest concern
 
Lexington 125 said:
Well now it’s at 23.5-103. Never claimed to be good at predicting movement but I never thought was coming. I’ll be back with thoughts on the matchup… injuries and rest are my biggest concern
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The mid day kick on Saturday certainly is a disadvantage. With that being said, this is now or never.

Both teams are different than last years WC Game. I don't think we can take too much from that game at all. Cook was awesome and the Bills held the ball for 41+ mins!

I'm firmly rooting for you all this postseason. I think this is a very tough spot and frankly you need J.A. to be Superman here.

The bottom line though -- Denver plays close games and I think nerves could come into play for a team playing their first home playoff game in awhile.

Buffalo would do well to get this to the 4th quarter relatively close and let experience take over.
 
Added Cook props. Also added 2ndh total tds o1.5 again (riding the rest of the way)



Some thoughts...

I think the broncos are a great defensive team but they are facing an all time great qb. Lawrence threw 4tds & ran one in @ Denver. Love put up 26. Dart threw 3 tds.. they are NOT the Texans D.

People I think are just looking at Allen's performance last week. The offensive line was unbelievable in pass pro. If anything there were a couple plays early that Allen rushed when he actually had great protection. I feel as if once he saw the protection was good he started ripping it. I don't see why the oline can't replicate the same thing vs Denver.

Cook got shut down last week, congrats to Jax. Still got the W. Cook stats the following game after being held under 3.5 ypc are insane.

last year

@seattle 17-111-2tds/ 3 catches 22yds

vs SF 14-107-1td/ 1-13 yds

@DET 14-105-2tds/ 1-28 yds

@NE 10-28-1td

this year

@NYJ 21-132-2tds/ 1 catch 3 yds

@ATL 17-87

@Houston 17-116-1td/ 3-13


You don't hold Cook down 2 games in a row! I think even more this season with the way he's running the ball. O line should be able to get him some lanes we will see if the Broncos D can stop him. I'll be honest I think if he's under 70 on this game the Broncos probably win. I think Cook will get Buffalo in manageable situations and Allen will take care of the rest.

Allen does not need to be superman to win this game.
Bo Nix has to be superman to beat the Bills.


more thoughts to come
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
How could you predict this price drop ..I was expecting a move to 24.5 -113 or more from what the Broncos games I've rewatched lately
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Maybe because of the injuries? Not sure but only way I see this happening is if Denver scores like 6 points. I don't see Denver just shutting down the Bills offense at all.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Maybe because of the injuries? Not sure but only way I see this happening is if Denver scores like 6 points. I don't see Denver just shutting down the Bills offense at all.
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Same , I just jumped on over 22.5 with some juice ..Trying to have some discipline, tempted to put more down ...Not many scenarios where the BILLS don't get there imo
 
wiseplayer said:
What’s the weather going to be for the Bills team total to drop a point?
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High 20s chance of wind nothing crazy….

Really kicking myself for not waiting on a big play but I don’t think the point drop comes into play.

Bills dogged +1.5.
 
B.A.R. said:
The bottom line though -- Denver plays close games and I think nerves could come into play for a team playing their first home playoff game in awhile.
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One last point. Denvers soft schedule...Houston is the only team still in the playoffs that Denver faced this year. Imagine that...Chargers, Philly, Green Bay and Jags are all out.
Game time temperature between 45-55 degrees.
 
Gameday is finally here!

Still waiting to see if TY will be out but Cook is the key for me. Healthy top tier rb off getting shut down, o-line healthy, everyone talking about Allen when the Bills have shown they are a very balanced offense. I'll tip my cap if the Broncos shut Cook down like Jax did- I think Cook carries over is a great wager but I'm trying to be more selective.


Still mulling over straight play on Knox yds.
 
If Ty doesn’t go, Knox yds will be a 3 unit play. I played cook all over the place. They’ll go big 2 te sets one te will get targeted. Could be completely off base here but I think we see heavy cook and quick passing to offset the pass rush. TEs targeted more than wr broncos likely try to limit Shakir. Trying to not go crazy but I think cook smashes yds prop 2td @+600 is scary but he is amazing. About time a running back goes off this playoffs.

Denver has the better defense. Bills offensive line capable of playing great if they don’t get dumb penalties. Pass pro was out of this world last week considering how good Jax d was. I’m banking on them repeating that performance with better run blocking
 
Lexington 125 said:
Gameday is finally here!

Still waiting to see if TY will be out but Cook is the key for me. Healthy top tier rb off getting shut down, o-line healthy, everyone talking about Allen when the Bills have shown they are a very balanced offense. I'll tip my cap if the Broncos shut Cook down like Jax did- I think Cook carries over is a great wager but I'm trying to be more selective.


Still mulling over straight play on Knox yds.
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Sounds like Ty is out with the elevation of Frank Gore Jr. ..Tempted to take Cook over 15.5 rushing yards but I do like his rushing 76.5 a little more ..Can't see him being shutdown today.

The Knox play makes sense too , have to imagine he's on the field a ton today .
 
Lexington 125 said:
Thoughts on your rams? I know Puka will be a popular prop but how do you not?
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They’ve been practicing in 80 degree temperatures this week. History has rarely shown this Chicago weather to favor the west BUT, Bears defense is not good vs the run. Rams can run it. Rams offense thrives with 2 TE’s on the field. Bears defense struggles be TE’s. Rams have 4 good ones. Recent play from both of these teams indicates Rams start quick and finish slow. Bears do the opposite.
60% of public on Bears while line is moving opposite. Rams are the better team. I’m playing this one in live ingame. GL!
 
One other noteworthy stat. Run D with Bears vs 12 & 13 personnel the Bears rank 30th on defense. As I mentioned, Rams love having their TE’s on the field. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rushing props could be worth a look. Bears MLB is out as is their LT
 
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wiseplayer said:
One other note worthy stat. Run D with Bears vs 12 & 13 personnel the Bears rank 30th on defense. As I mentioned, Rams love having their TE’s on the field. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rushing props could be worth a look. Bears MLB is out as is their LT
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I'm going back and forth between Williams and Corum ...As a Kyren fantasy owner it drove me nuts that Corum got so many touches ...Tempted to bet Corum over at his lower number of 43.5
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I'm going back and forth between Williams and Corum ...As a Kyren fantasy owner it drove me nuts that Corum got so many touches ...Tempted to bet Corum over at his lower number of 43.5
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McVay spilt time with these guys. I believe the Rams implemented a system because of their depth to preserve their players. Most starters are splitting reps except the QB and Oline. Rams even bring in their 3rd and 4th WR’s a lot. It bothers me how often Puka is on the sidelines. Rams have quietly implemented this as the season progressed into December.
 
I really like that over in Ram/Chi gm despite temperature. Ram defense has fallen off the cliff in last couple of weeks even against run, and we know Forbes is a huge liability in the secondary. Chi defense is ass and Rams can do whatever they want on offense. They get Dotson back on OL at RG which is huge for running game. Like both RB RY props there. Bears 2H team for sure, and will be forced to try and match points w Rams.
 
wiseplayer said:
McVay spilt time with these guys. I believe the Rams implemented a system because of their depth to preserve their players. Most starters are splitting reps except the QB and Oline. Rams even bring in their 3rd and 4th WR’s a lot. It bothers me how often Puka is on the sidelines. Rams have quietly implemented this as the season progressed into December.
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Yeah I remember reading that McVay was planning to do that...Super annoying as a fantasy owner 😂
 
Timh said:
I really like that over in Ram/Chi gm despite temperature. Ram defense has fallen off the cliff in last couple of weeks even against run, and we know Forbes is a huge liability in the secondary. Chi defense is ass and Rams can do whatever they want on offense. They get Dotson back on OL at RG which is huge for running game. Like both RB RY props there. Bears 2H team for sure, and will be forced to try and match points w Rams.
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Agreed
 
bills+1.5

3 units


Team total and side equally huge wagers. Betting on the oline, run game & of course qb 1.

Was going to wait until live but I’m gonna be too involved to post much probably.
 
Forever the team of what ifs

I feel I capped correctly I knew cook would go off. 3rd down d was a joke. Allen had them and didn’t make it happen. Didn’t expect turnovers galore but another year same result.

Allen missed Knox wide open with ten seconds left.
 
Texans+3+100

Texans tt o19.5-105

Kirk td +270

Stevenson rec yds o20.5

3 units each


Higgins rec. yds o37.5

Diggs 5+ rec -104

2 units each



+5400 boost

Stevenson 30+ rec & td
Schultz 30+ rec & td
Higgins 50+ rec

Half unit
 
Lex, looks like you’re trusting the Rams at -9. How do you see this playing out? It’s not like McVay to play smash mouth football. He barely runs it twice in a row.
 
wiseplayer said:
Lex, looks like you’re trusting the Rams at -9. How do you see this playing out? It’s not like McVay to play smash mouth football. He barely runs it twice in a row.
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I think they keep it balanced and score tds. I don’t trust the bears defense and I think the bears luck will run out today.
 
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