Round 1 Pucks

Santacapper

Santacapper

Pretty much a regular
Decided to keep a round by round thread to keep everything easy to read etc etc... Finished the regular season 27 and change units, and its onto the playoff year. I typically lower my unit size in the post season, and will do so again this year.

Pending Series

Vancouver -120
Calgary +228
Nashville +183

0-1 First round

Pending Futures

Calgary 15:1
Buffalo 15:1
San Jose 15:1
Vancouver +2050
Minnesotta +3050

Onto the games.

Wednesday April 11, 2007

Nashville -132

Very very home team dominated series, where the visitor was a measly 3-14 @ their opponents rink. Nashville opened up the series in last years playoffs with a victory over the sharks and then lay down. Preds led season series this year 3-1. In my opinion the Preds are the deeper team and have size to match up with Thornton this year where they wore down in the series last year. Preds lost all of 8 games at home this season. Nice price for me personally.

Dallas / Vancouver under 5

2-1 x 4... that was the final score in each meeting in the regular season between these 2 teams. I think that this will be the first series we see a 4.5 total on a game. Dallas hasnt allowed a PP goal in 7 games leading into the playoffs. Luongo holds a 1.93 GAA vs the Stars including 2 shut outs, Turco counters with a 1.59 GAA vs the Canucks. Accounting for his disappearance in the playoffs this should still be a low scoring affair.

Minnesota / Anaheim under 5

Playoff hockey equals different styles and tight affairs. Both teams play somewhat different variations of the trap. Minny has once again found a gem of a goaltender in backstrom who has played his way to a 1.97 GAA this season and nearly a .930 save percentage. That should stay the same in the playoffs as most of the shots Minny allows are from the outside with clear lanes. I believe this series goes at least 6 if not 7. Wednesday will set the tone. Like unders as not many teams like to go down 1-0 and take chances.

Pittsburgh +156 1/2 unit

Minnesotta +145 1/2 unit

GL everyone:cheers:
 
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SC:
Probably be going in diffeent directions but you plays make sense...except for the NSH one, heh heh.

GL!
 
Morphius - thanks man, you too. GL

Noose - lol, at least your team is playing in the second season. haha. Thanks. GL

Yans - no doubt, sure hope that stays true.

still debating playing the 2 bigger dogs tonight too
 
Added pittsburgh and Minnesota, think both these series go back split, played em for half because Im kind of experimenting along with Lipps / Joe
 
i agree on the sides santa....tickle the dogs tonite and if not, hit em again in game 2

split is highly likely
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Good luck with your picks Santa! I'm hoping to win a few tonight and turn a small profit myself. I have the Jays tonight in Bases!
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Ret - I'll be on them again in game 2, and the Preds. Think a split in all 3 will be where its going. GL

Terp - thanks man, Glad we got the Jays. GL

Not the best first nights, but think I learned a lot to get that back over the course of the series. Preds could have won a bunch, Nabakov played excellent in goal. Was pleased with Minny's effort, going forward with a series play etc. Like I mentioned in the in game thread, looking for plus back on a 6.5 in the Sens Game 2.

Sides 0-3 -2.32 units
Totals 1-1 even


Thursday April 12, 2007

NY Rangers +124

Thrashers first playoff series. Look at the Penguins and how they looked like a deer in the headlight for the first period. Rangers had a tough go last year vs teh Devils when they were banged up, but have a rested Lundqvist, a gritty guy with Avery and an ever dangerous Jagr, Shanahan etc. Think its a nice dog price.

Calgary / Detroit under 5

Pretty well documented with the Wings scoring going south for the spring the past few years. Bertuzzi out tongiht wont be able to cause problems for Kiprusoff. Wings will get the shots on net, but he will see them. Healthy Hasek in the playoffs is always the potential for a SO. I'll take a feeling out game.

Buffalo -1.5 +105

It pains me to make this play with my hatred for Ruff running deep, lol. WIth all ap9ologies to Lute, the more I look at the series the more I think blowout in the opening game. A healthy Afinigenov really makes the difference in this series IMO. He is a game breaker for the Sabres. Isles have to play physical with the Sabres to have any shot, and the way the league looks like they are calling stuff in the first round there is no way they can stay out of the box with the Sabres speed.

No plays on the Devils game... want to see how both come out.

GL everyone:cheers:
 
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Really like that DET under..may add that as well.

Capping, especially playoffs, is all about learning as you said. Lets get em tonight
 
Santacapper said:
Ret - I'll be on them again in game 2, and the Preds. Think a split in all 3 will be where its going. GL

Terp - thanks man, Glad we got the Jays. GL

Not the best first nights, but think I learned a lot to get that back over the course of the series. Preds could have won a bunch, Nabakov played excellent in goal. Was pleased with Minny's effort, going forward with a series play etc. Like I mentioned in the in game thread, looking for plus back on a 6.5 in the Sens Game 2.

Sides 0-3 -2 units
Totals 1-1 even


Thursday April 12, 2007

NY Rangers +124

Thrashers first playoff series. Look at the Penguins and how they looked like a deer in the headlight for the first period. Rangers had a tough go last year vs teh Devils when they were banged up, but have a rested Lundqvist, a gritty guy with Avery and an ever dangerous Jagr, Shanahan etc. Think its a nice dog price.

Calgary / Detroit under 5

Pretty well documented with the Wings scoring going south for the spring the past few years. Bertuzzi out tongiht wont be able to cause problems for Kiprusoff. Wings will get the shots on net, but he will see them. Healthy Hasek in the playoffs is always the potential for a SO. I'll take a feeling out game.

Buffalo -1.5 +105

It pains me to make this play with my hatred for Ruff running deep, lol. WIth all ap9ologies to Lute, the more I look at the series the more I think blowout in the opening game. A healthy Afinigenov really makes the difference in this series IMO. He is a game breaker for the Sabres. Isles have to play physical with the Sabres to have any shot, and the way the league looks like they are calling stuff in the first round there is no way they can stay out of the box with the Sabres speed.

No plays on the Devils game... want to see how both come out.

GL everyone:cheers:
Click to expand...


SC - wtf? What happened to all of the positive vibes? 1 phrase - shock the world!
 
Lute - I said... with all apologies... lol. In all seriousness though, I think in just tonights game Buffalo will run the tide. I will say that if it goes the way I think tonight, it wont be a sweep, but a wake up call to the Isles. We will get them as a dog at teh couliseum and I'll be all over them there. GL
 
Santacapper said:
Lute - I said... with all apologies... lol. In all seriousness though, I think in just tonights game Buffalo will run the tide. I will say that if it goes the way I think tonight, it wont be a sweep, but a wake up call to the Isles. We will get them as a dog at teh couliseum and I'll be all over them there. GL
Click to expand...


I hear you SC & I can certainly see it going this way tonight. If they can get a split in Buffalo & come home to a rocking coliseum, I will obviously be thrilled. Also, keep an eye on DP, everything I am reading is leading me to believe he will be in the crease come game 3. If he can get into a groove like he was in before he was concussed, well, he is the type of goalie than can steal a game or two & make things very very interesting.
 
Lute - depending on the outcome tonight I could very well be playin the Isles in game 2. I heard / saw he skated. Thing with concussions, speaking from experience is its a timing thing. One symptom and he is back to square 1. Either way, the Island will be crazy.
 
Lute - same to you. GL

Update this window as I go.

Friday April 13, 2007

Sides 2-3 -0.03 units
Totals 1-1-1 even

Nashville -135

Going to play this now as I can see the line movig against me as more and more is learned about Cheechoo. As of right now, its assumed he is done, but could play this series. I would doubt tomorrow. Anyways, regardless of that, this series should be split going back to SJ, Preds played well last night and had some real good opportunities, Nabaokov helped out in OT. Preds need to stay out of the box, got some real bad calls against them in Game #1. No 5-3's and its a different game IMO.

Minnesota +146

Really liked the way Minny went at the Ducks. Couple bounces their way and its a different game entirely. Anyways, think this goes back to Minny split.

Vancouver -122

The Stars threw absolutely everything they had at the Canucks in Game 1, to the tune of 73 shots. I think Luongo is a goalie to recover fromplaying 2 games more so than Turco, add in I like the Canucks depth and the home team carries them to a 2-0 series lead heading into Dallas.


GL Everyone:cheers:
 
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SC: The calls against Preds were mostly right on...the knee shot on Cheechoo wasn't premeditated but they got away with tons of interference...mostly non called...I think SJ wins by 3 tomorrow as Preds will play cautiously and Nabby is on fire!
 
Liquid - probably should have clarified. Not the initial calls, but the second call after the major 3 minutes in after SJ hadnt gotten a shot on net was a tough one to swallow for me. I do think after looking at the replay the major was the right call though. I guess I just dont like the way the games were called across the board last night. Let them play, old school hockey
 
Satyr - Isles never really had a shot last night, emotional crowd, they took penalties etc etc. Glad we got it. GL

Yanks - thanks man, appreciate it. Kick some ass tonight. GL

I have edited the Friday post to make Minny a full unit play and added the canucks. I'll post the Penguins play for 0.5 units tomorrow.

GL everyone
 
Santacapper said:
Satyr - Isles never really had a shot last night, emotional crowd, they took penalties etc etc. Glad we got it. GL

Yanks - thanks man, appreciate it. Kick some ass tonight. GL

I have edited the Friday post to make Minny a full unit play and added the canucks. I'll post the Penguins play for 0.5 units tomorrow.

GL everyone
Click to expand...


Interesting game last night SC.
I felt like the isles focused so much on holding down the sabres in the 1st, that they never really got into the offense flow (obviously with 1 shot). That being said, I was somewhat happy with the way they played. They had the crowd simmered down a bit & it was a slow grinding game. In the second period I was ecstatic. I felt like they came out & carried the play for the most part. After Asham tied it, I got a little giddy up, but I knew they had to remain smart. Then they took 2 awful penalties - Witt shooting it over the glass & a holding call on Hill that seemed a bit questionable at the very least. 2-1 going into the 3rd - hell, I'll take it. Unfortunately, it was more bad penalties in the 3rd. The isles had a chance to clear at the end of that penalty that bridged the 2nd & 3rd - they didn't clear & Buffalo scored with like 2 seconds left on the power play. 3-1 & game just about over. They had one last chance to get back into it....there was a delayed penalty & the isles were swarming - buffalo could not get the puck. They missed on 2-3 shots from in close. Then, they did not score on the penalty = game over. See you Saturday night, hopefully with a chip on their shoulder & DP in net (Dubie, i felt, played very well but DP gives them a different dynamic).
Anyway - I know you watched, just sharing my observations...they need to play like they did in the second minus the penalties to have any chance because Buffalo is potent & Drury's hangs way past his knee...good luck tonight.
 
I watched the sabres-isles lute, and i do think the isles can take some positives from that game. I dont think its a surprise buffalo won (Buffalo all pumped, out to show theyre contenders, havent played hard in a while etc), but things could tighten up and not be the rout everyone expects I think.
 
catfood said:
I watched the sabres-isles lute, and i do think the isles can take some positives from that game. I dont think its a surprise buffalo won (Buffalo all pumped, out to show theyre contenders, havent played hard in a while etc), but things could tighten up and not be the rout everyone expects I think.
Click to expand...


Glad you saw some positives as well cat...they need to stay out of the penalty box first & foremost. Should be an interesting game Saturday night!
 
Lute - no doubt a few missed opportunities, especially on that delayed penalty call. Its almost a certainty with a delay of game that there will be a goal, its weird. Sure can take some positives out of it, they were 'in the game' for about 45 - 50 minutes. They cant try and beat up Buffalo to take them off their game, you cant take a deep team off its gameplan you just need to do what you do best. Of course going to the box that many times is not an option. GL

Cat - definitely could turn into a real good series. GL
 
Good luck with your picks santacapper. I havent played any games, am fairly new to this and in the process of reloading and looking for a new book, made a couple of large bets in the champions league and a couple in hockey that I shouldnt have, oh well lesson learned lol Them sabres though sure are impressive when theyre buzzing in the offensive zones, they have fast passing plays that connect that make me wonder how did they do that?

Lute - keep the faith bro!
 
I'll be there Wed night (monday is my 2-year anniversary - nothing like celebrating by watching playoff hockey)...looking for a 2-1 series at that point...3-0 will take something away from the experience.
 
Cat - have any questions on books,, fire me or any other mod a PM and we'll answer em. It happens to all of us. Sabres are a high skilled team. Going to take a big effort for anybody to knock em off. Anything can happen over 7 games, and home ice / last change is huge. GL

Lute - enjoy the game man, yeah would suck if it was 3-0. Hope it isnt. GL
 
Adding

Series Play

Nashville +183

Come on... its 1-0, the game went to OT, Sharks might be without Cheechoo for a while, even if he does play it cant be 100%. Series is still a crapshoot and if the Preds can take one in SJ, they get home ice back. I'll take it
 
SC: Obviously I'm against anything vs Sharks but to get pos money at this point is great value...nice find.

Cheechoo won't be missed as much this year as last since we have Guerin and some babys have grown up (Bernier, Clowe...even Grier and possibly Pavelski).
 
Noose - thats pretty much the only reason Im taking it. Thinking they win tonight (sorry, lol) but if they can get home ice back and the series price then swings back to Nashville faves, I buy out and sit on guaranteed profit. If not, I can buy out for the stake when the moment calls for it, no love lost. Thanks man. GL
 
BOL Santacapper


A Marc-Andre Fleury Sidenote:

He's been pulled 5 times this season. And how did he do in his follow up games after being pulled ? He's LOST all 5
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Dan - thats the plan in my mind, lol. Thanks. GL

Yanks - you too man, you know it., GL

Morphius - real interesting stat. Remember Kiprusoff being the eact opposite, not that it matters in game 2 but its always been a good note with the Flames. Thanks. GL
 
Saturday April 15 2007

Sides 3-5 -1.25 units
Totals 1-1-1 even

Pittsburgh / Ottawa under 6.5

I dont know what else to say other than the pace of game 1 did not equate to the final score. Ott got a coupld nice bounces and that kinda led to a free for all pace. That wont happen tomorrow IMO.

NY Rangers +125

NY Islanders / BUffalo over 6

Pittsburgh +170 0.5 Units

GL Everyone:cheers:
 
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so I lied, lol.

Wont be around much of the day, going to the race track / casino this afternoon. Probably be around late night.
 
Won a big 0.1 units yesterda, better than losing it. Sorry for posting late, long day at teh track, won a little bit

Sides 5-5 +0.85 units
Totals 1-3-1 -2 units

Calgary / Detroit uner 5

Pittsburgh +103

Minnesota -135

GL everyone:cheers:
 
Never apologize for going to the track, Santa. Unless, you know, you've moved in there. Then it's a problem.

Like the Pens, like the Wild--again.

Let's get it done.

Good luck tonight.
 
Santacapper said:
Won a big 0.1 units yesterda, better than losing it. Sorry for posting late, long day at teh track, won a little bit

Sides 5-5 +0.85 units
Totals 1-3-1 -2 units

Calgary / Detroit uner 5

Pittsburgh +103

Minnesota -135

GL everyone:cheers:
Click to expand...


LOL...through very different routes yesterday...we both ended up at the very same point.

Good call on that under. Glad an empty netter didn't moose ya.
PITT and MINNY:cheers: :wacka wacka:
 
Monday April 16, 2007

Sides 5-7 -1.50 units
Totals 3-3-1 +0.05 units

Buffalo / NY Islanders over 6 +105

New Jersey / Tampa Bay under 5 +115

San Jose -143

NY Islanders +170 1/2 Unit

GL everyone:cheers:
 
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Lute - day is young my man. lol. So far I have gone with the over as I think the crowd should bring out a faster style for the first bit. Might play the first period over as well. GL to you and your Isles, I will be rooting for them even if I dont have a play as I would love to see it.
 
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