Colorado Serving Rockie Road Upset in Wild Card Game at Chicago
The Cubs host the Rockies on Tuesday, 7 ET on ESPN and ESPN 2 in the Wild Card Game. It’s winner take all and the contrarian road dog will pull off the upset.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML
Colorado will trust its best pitcher, Kyle Freeland, (17-7, 2.85 ERA) off short rest. Freeland’s form has been superb, conceding two runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts. Freeland is one of baseball’s most profitable pitchers, yielding +15.5 units. The Rockies have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The one loss came in Los Angeles against future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.
The southpaw Freeland relies primarily on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches comprise 66 percent of his arsenal. They’re his most effective pitches based on opposing BA. The fastball yields a .238 BA, the cutter .202. His fastball is effective due to its combo of glove-side movement and location. He hammers the periphery of the plate that’s inside against lefties and away from righties. He’s able to use the slight horizontal movement to toy with the batter’s perception of whether it will land for a strike or a ball. Either way, the precision makes it insusceptible to good contact.
Freeland he applies the same principal in a more lethal way to his cutter, concentrating its location not only on both peripheries but also low in the zone. He places it with 19.50% frequency in the lowest-left spot in the zone. His cutter’s vertical and horizontal release points intersect closely with those of his sinker. This intersection creates deception that makes the batter struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand and to react well.
The Cubs rank 25th in slugging against Freeland’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and cutter, from lefties. As a whole, their team rhythm is mediocre heading into the playoffs. They’re 4-4 in their last eight games, 6-6 in their last 12. They’re not trending upwards as a team. Kris Bryant, for example, is batting .154 in his past seven days. Ben Zobrist, Chicago’s BA leader, is batting only .208 in his past seven days. Anthony Rizzo has been in good form, but primarily against righties. Against lefties, he bats .248. He’s 0-for-6 lifetime against Freeland.
The only concern with Freeland’s lack of rest is that he may not last as long as he usually do. But that’s not a valid concern because Colorado’s bullpen has been one of the best in September, yielding a 2.97 ERA. Adam Ottavino is yielding a .158 BA, Scott Oberg has thrown 4.1 shutout innings in his past seven days, Seunghwan Oh has thrown 4.2 straight shutout innings. Closer Wade Davis has allowed one run in 11 September innings.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kyle Freeland Guys and Gals unite!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rocktober?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Rocktober</a> <a href="https://t.co/hxCAowFYBg">pic.twitter.com/hxCAowFYBg</a></p>— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) <a href=" ">2. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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The Cubs will trust Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA). This seems like a bed decision given his 5+ ERA in elimination games. He’s pitched well lately, but has had the benefit of facing losing teams like the Reds and White Sox. Against three of his last four winning teams, he yielded an ERA of 4.50 higher and against two of them he yielded eight runs. Lester was a beneficiary in the first half of a low ERA, high FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) disparity, but luck has since caught up with him. The Cubs are 1-3 in his last four starts against winning teams.
The southpaw Lester, like Freeland but to a larger degree, relies on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches yield slugging rates well above .400. One big problem with them is location. His fastball hits the middle parts of the plate with 5-6 percent frequency. His cutter does so to a lesser degree, but he also commands it poorly, only throwing it with 22 percent frequency for a strike and batters are able to be selective when deciding whether to swing at it.
The Rockies match up well against him, ranking seventh in slugging against Lester’s two favorite pitches from lefties. The Rox show great rhythm despite losing in Los Angeles like they almost always do. Colorado won two out of three in Chicago in the regular season and has won nine of its last 11. Watch for Nolan Arenado, who is slugging 1.115 against the Cubs (1.143 in Wrigley Field) and .862 in his past seven days.
The Cubs host the Rockies on Tuesday, 7 ET on ESPN and ESPN 2 in the Wild Card Game. It’s winner take all and the contrarian road dog will pull off the upset.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML
Colorado will trust its best pitcher, Kyle Freeland, (17-7, 2.85 ERA) off short rest. Freeland’s form has been superb, conceding two runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts. Freeland is one of baseball’s most profitable pitchers, yielding +15.5 units. The Rockies have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The one loss came in Los Angeles against future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.
The southpaw Freeland relies primarily on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches comprise 66 percent of his arsenal. They’re his most effective pitches based on opposing BA. The fastball yields a .238 BA, the cutter .202. His fastball is effective due to its combo of glove-side movement and location. He hammers the periphery of the plate that’s inside against lefties and away from righties. He’s able to use the slight horizontal movement to toy with the batter’s perception of whether it will land for a strike or a ball. Either way, the precision makes it insusceptible to good contact.
Freeland he applies the same principal in a more lethal way to his cutter, concentrating its location not only on both peripheries but also low in the zone. He places it with 19.50% frequency in the lowest-left spot in the zone. His cutter’s vertical and horizontal release points intersect closely with those of his sinker. This intersection creates deception that makes the batter struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand and to react well.
The Cubs rank 25th in slugging against Freeland’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and cutter, from lefties. As a whole, their team rhythm is mediocre heading into the playoffs. They’re 4-4 in their last eight games, 6-6 in their last 12. They’re not trending upwards as a team. Kris Bryant, for example, is batting .154 in his past seven days. Ben Zobrist, Chicago’s BA leader, is batting only .208 in his past seven days. Anthony Rizzo has been in good form, but primarily against righties. Against lefties, he bats .248. He’s 0-for-6 lifetime against Freeland.
The only concern with Freeland’s lack of rest is that he may not last as long as he usually do. But that’s not a valid concern because Colorado’s bullpen has been one of the best in September, yielding a 2.97 ERA. Adam Ottavino is yielding a .158 BA, Scott Oberg has thrown 4.1 shutout innings in his past seven days, Seunghwan Oh has thrown 4.2 straight shutout innings. Closer Wade Davis has allowed one run in 11 September innings.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kyle Freeland Guys and Gals unite!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rocktober?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Rocktober</a> <a href="https://t.co/hxCAowFYBg">pic.twitter.com/hxCAowFYBg</a></p>— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) <a href=" ">2. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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The Cubs will trust Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA). This seems like a bed decision given his 5+ ERA in elimination games. He’s pitched well lately, but has had the benefit of facing losing teams like the Reds and White Sox. Against three of his last four winning teams, he yielded an ERA of 4.50 higher and against two of them he yielded eight runs. Lester was a beneficiary in the first half of a low ERA, high FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) disparity, but luck has since caught up with him. The Cubs are 1-3 in his last four starts against winning teams.
The southpaw Lester, like Freeland but to a larger degree, relies on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches yield slugging rates well above .400. One big problem with them is location. His fastball hits the middle parts of the plate with 5-6 percent frequency. His cutter does so to a lesser degree, but he also commands it poorly, only throwing it with 22 percent frequency for a strike and batters are able to be selective when deciding whether to swing at it.
The Rockies match up well against him, ranking seventh in slugging against Lester’s two favorite pitches from lefties. The Rox show great rhythm despite losing in Los Angeles like they almost always do. Colorado won two out of three in Chicago in the regular season and has won nine of its last 11. Watch for Nolan Arenado, who is slugging 1.115 against the Cubs (1.143 in Wrigley Field) and .862 in his past seven days.
