Rochclone Week 6 NCAAF

R

rochclone

Pretty much a regular
Solid Week 5 with 7-3 on TU plays.

Week One (44-31-2) +$447.55 +17.90 Units
Week Two (40-35-1) -$81.35 -3.25 Units
Week Three (32-28-1) +45.47 + 1.82 Units
Week Four (26-30-2) -$294.05 -11.76 Units
Week Five (26-23-0) +$278.00 +11.12 Units


Overall: 166-147-6 +$395.62 +15.82 Units


0.2 Units (Season Record 33-34-1)
Buffalo -13.5
Army +11.5
Miami (Ohio) +3.0
Toledo -21.5
UMASS +25.5
Minnesota +18.5
Wake Forest +7.5
Tulane +3.0
FIU +17.0
New Mexico -9.5
South Carolina -21.0
San Jose State -5.0


0.4 Units (SR 19-14-0)
UL Monroe +7.5
SMU +4.5
UNC +7.0
UTEP -1.0


0.6 Units (Season Record 17-12-1)
Air Force +11.0
Syracuse +13.5
Oklahoma State -14.0
Fresno State -27.0
Missouri +1.5
Washington +7.5

0.8 Units (Season Record 9-12-1)
Tulsa -3.0
Arkansas +12.0


1.0 Unit Plays (SR 9-7-0)
South Alabama +3.5
Middle Tennessee State +7.5

1.2 Unit Plays (SR 4-5-0)
Oregon -38.5


1.4 Unit Plays (SR 7-5-2)
Marshall -14.0
Washington State -1.5


1.6 Unit Plays (SR 7-6-0
Alabama -55.0
UAB -4.5

1.8 Unit Plays (SR 7-7-0)
Louisville -32.0
Texas State +11.0

2.0 Unit Plays (Season Record 4-5-0)
Ball State +5.5

2.2 Unit Plays (Season Record 6-4-0)
Northern Illinois -8.5
Cincinnati -11.5

2.4 Unit Plays (Season Record 5-6-0)
Iowa State +7.0
Penn State -3.0

2.6 Unit Plays (SR 4-4-1)
BYU +6.0
UCF -9.5

2.8 Unit Plays (SR 4-7-0)
Nevada +5.5
Georgia -10.0

3.0 Unit Plays (Season Record 31-19-0)
Utah +5.5
Maryland +15.5
Georgia Tech +6.0
Iowa +1.0
Kansas +17.5
Illinois +9.5
Ohio -5.0
Ole Miss -3.0
LSU -9.5
Arizona State -5.5
Baylor -27.5
Ohio State -5.5
Oklahoma -10.0



Early Leans this Week:

Baylor -27.5 (Oregon of the Southwest...not buying into West Virginia as I believe that came was more about the flaws of Oklahoma State then anything else. Last year Baylor put up 63 in Morgantown and gained 700 yards in the process. This offense is better this year. West Virginia is a shell of itself offensively. Baylor 59 West Virginia 21

Ohio State -5.5 (Just not buying Northwestern in this big spot) Wildcats really struggled in the game against Maine and were the benefit of a defensive score or that game is a whole lot closer. TOSU will be too much.

LSU -9.5 at Mississippi State--LSU's offense looks superb under the direction of Cameron. Concerned about the LSU defense but Mississippi State struggled against a worse defense in Oklahoma State. LSU can stop the run and I'm not a believer ultimately in Tyler Russell against high end competition.

Kansas +17.5--The Big 12 is a conference where you will make money on dogs this year (the exception being whoever plays Baylor). Texas Tech's offense is not quite there yet. Against FBS schools they are averaging 31 points per game. They travel outside the state of Texas for the first time this year as a ranked opponent. Walk on Frosh struggled against TCU and against Texas State. But more importantly....this is a Kansas team that I believe is dangerous at home when it comes to pulling upsets against that second tier of the Big 12 (See Texas Tech, Kansas State and West Virginia) this year. KU played Oklahoma State tough last year at home 14-20, Texas 17-21 and TCU 6-20. Would expect KU on homecoming to feed the ball to Pierson and Sims and hope to control time of possession 33 minutes to 27 minutes if not more. If Kansas avoids the turnovers then I think this is a 7-10 point game.
 
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Wow - hard to believe KU is getting 17.5. I don't buy the reference to last year's home dog covers -- Oklahoma State was in an unbelievably negative situation, UT was disinterested and overrated (don't recall the exact situation), and TCU appeared to be shaving points with 3 or 4 lost fumbles in the red zone. However, Tech is also in a bad situation, and the Homecoming angle is worth something, and the line has gotten out of hand, so KU looks like the right side. I won't be playing Tech at that number, that's for sure. It really sucks, because KU's schedule hasn't really given us the chance to play against Heaps yet. He was money in the bank at BYU.
 
I love the Baylor play. Think about adding a 1Q and/or 1H play when those lines come out. Do you realize that when Baylor is not winning by more than 14 points (basically the first 5 to 10 minutes of their games this year), Petty has completed 18-21 passes for 495 yards? That's over 24 yards per attempt. That's unheard of. WVU's defense has been surprisingly good so far this year, but I expect BU to jump out to an early lead again.
 
Ohio State has been an outstanding road favorite for a long time. Good luck on that one.

I also played LSU but am re-thinking because the bye week should really help State.

Hope you have a great weekend.
 
congrats on a good week 5 and GL this week
too early for me to comment on your leans, but I'll be back on Friday
 
Appreciate the feedback as always gentlemen. Streakin I initially lean to the Sooners this weekend but a tremendously difficult emotional spot for the Sooners between ND and Texas. Just not convinced that TCU can move the ball consistently to stay within 10.
 
Here we go:

0.2 Units
Buffalo -13.5
Army +11.5
Miami (Ohio) +3.0
Toledo -21.5
UMASS +25.5
Minnesota +18.5
Wake Forest +7.5
Tulane +3.0
FIU +17.0
New Mexico -9.5
South Carolina -21.0
San Jose State -5.0


0.4 Unit Plays
UL Monroe +7.5
SMU +4.5
UNC +7.0
UTEP -1.0

0.6 Unit Plays
Air Force +11.0
Syracuse +13.5
Oklahoma State -14.0
Fresno State -27.0
Missouri +1.5
Washington +7.5
 
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0.8 Unit Plays
Tulsa -3.0
Arkansas +12.0

1.0 Unit Plays
South Alabama +3.5
Middle Tenn. State +7.5

1.2 Unit Plays
Oregon -38.5


1.4 Unit Plays
Marshall -14.0
Washington State -1.5
Oklahoma -10.0
 
1.6 Unit Plays
Alabama -55.0
UAB -4.5

1.8 Unit Plays
Louisville -32.0
Texas State +11.0

2.0 Unit Plays
Ball State +5.5

2.2 Unit Plays
Northern Illinois -8.5
Cincinnati -11.5

2.4 Unit Plays
Iowa State +7.0
Penn State -3.0
 
2.6 Unit Plays
BYU +6.0
UCF -9.5

2.8 Unit Plays
Nevada +5.5
Georgia -10.0


3.0 Unit Plays
Utah +5.5
Maryland +15.5
Georgia Tech +6.0
Iowa +1.0
Kansas +17.5
Illinois +9.5
Ohio -5.0
Ole Miss -3.0
LSU -9.5
Arizona State -5.5
Baylor -27.5
Ohio State -5.5

Gl to all
 
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You must see a little something in Minny that I don't. LW was not a letdown as it was a huge rivalry game. They just got trucked. They are going to have to figure out how to stop the run and I think scUM keeps the ball on the ground given his struggles in the passing game. If minny does that, it could be a close one - but history tells me this one is not going to be close. Hope they can keep it competitive though.
 
P-Unit

Iowa was a TU play for me last week against Minnesota. As much as I hate the Hawkeyes I think they are a team that knows their identity and is committed to running Weismann until he falls over. I actually think the Michigan match-up is a slightly better one for Minnesota as I think they will be able to move the ball on the ground against MU's defense. Furthermore, Michigan is extremely lucky to be undefeated at this point. I don't think the game is ever in doubt but a 35-17 finall will work for me.
 
It is a shame that Iowa State lost that game tonight. Guess I'm not sure why we have replay reviews if you aren't going to overturn obvious fumbles.
 
rochclone said:
P-Unit

Iowa was a TU play for me last week against Minnesota. As much as I hate the Hawkeyes I think they are a team that knows their identity and is committed to running Weismann until he falls over. I actually think the Michigan match-up is a slightly better one for Minnesota as I think they will be able to move the ball on the ground against MU's defense. Furthermore, Michigan is extremely lucky to be undefeated at this point. I don't think the game is ever in doubt but a 35-17 finall will work for me.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response. Some very good points here and I agree that Mich has been very lucky thus far. GL on the plays this week.
 
Thanks Bull, Hunt and Punit. Good luck to you guys as well today.

Adding a few parlays for shits and giggles.

4 team
Alabama -55.0
Ohio State -7.0
Maryland +15.5
Kansas +17.0

0.2 Units to win 2.57 Units


6 team
Iowa +1.0
Illinois +9.5
Ole Miss -3.0
Georgia -10.0
Oklahoma -10.0
Washington State -1.5

0.2 Units to win 9.11 Units


15 team
Iowa ML
Ball State ML
Illiois +9.5
Georgia -10.0
LSU -9.5
UCF -9.5
South Alabama ML
Washington State -1.5
Ole Miss -3.0
UAB -2.0
Kansas +18.0
Arizona State -3.0
Baylor -28.0
Ohio State -4.0
Penn State -3.0


0.2 Units to win 3,615.09 Units
 
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