Rochclone Week 5 NCAAF

Hello,
Been following your picks you are doing great,
Have a question regarding the army/ec game.
I had line yesterday at army +5’
Saw today it was down to +4 and 4’
Any news on that game?
To me that’s a big change this close to kickoff.
Any info is appreciated thank you.
Keep up good work.
Woodman 1968 (Dave)
 
Week 0 9-1-0 (+27.65 Units)
Week 1 65-39-0 (+59.63 Units)
Week 2 47-44-4 (+17.34 Units)
Week 3 47-39-2 (+42.96 Units)
Week 4 50-29-2 (+27.64 Units0

YTD: 218-152-8 (+175.22 Units)

Thursday:
Army +4.5 (4.5 Units)
Army TT Over 23.5 (1.4 Units)
N. Short (Army) Over 39.5 rushing yds (1.8 Units)
 
Woodman1968 said:
Hello,
Been following your picks you are doing great,
Have a question regarding the army/ec game.
I had line yesterday at army +5’
Saw today it was down to +4 and 4’
Any news on that game?
To me that’s a big change this close to kickoff.
Any info is appreciated thank you.
Keep up good work.
Woodman 1968 (Dave)
Click to expand...

It in my opinion, and others on this board are likely better positioned to speak to this, but a move from 5.5 to 4.5 isn't that big of a move. It still is a move but it could come from a syndicate or from information. A move from 5.5 to 3.5 or 3.0 pushing through 4 would likely signal something much bigger. I anticipate that the small move may be linked to Coleman being probable as the QB for Army. His status was up in the air and I suspect that news of his availability (despite the backup leading them to a W against Kansas State) might line up with the line movement. But I can't find any information on his current status. Hope that helps.
 
rochclone said:
It in my opinion, and others on this board are likely better positioned to speak to this, but a move from 5.5 to 4.5 isn't that big of a move. It still is a move but it could come from a syndicate or from information. A move from 5.5 to 3.5 or 3.0 pushing through 4 would likely signal something much bigger. I anticipate that the small move may be linked to Coleman being probable as the QB for Army. His status was up in the air and I suspect that news of his availability (despite the backup leading them to a W against Kansas State) might line up with the line movement. But I can't find any information on his current status. Hope that helps.
Click to expand...
This is a great point, that not all points are created equal. The difference in win expectancy between 2.5 to 3 and 3.5 is about 3% each, same with 6.5 to 7 to 7.5. Well, the difference in win expectancy between 4 and 5.5 is about the same (3.2%). 4.5, 5 and 5.5 are all dead numbers and not worth nearly as much as moves near at key number.
 
rochclone said:
It in my opinion, and others on this board are likely better positioned to speak to this, but a move from 5.5 to 4.5 isn't that big of a move. It still is a move but it could come from a syndicate or from information. A move from 5.5 to 3.5 or 3.0 pushing through 4 would likely signal something much bigger. I anticipate that the small move may be linked to Coleman being probable as the QB for Army. His status was up in the air and I suspect that news of his availability (despite the backup leading them to a W against Kansas State) might line up with the line movement. But I can't find any information on his current status. Hope that helps.
Click to expand...
 
Thank you and I’m very new to this site. A friend of mine turned me onto it so I’m still learning the proper etiquette so to speak on addressing people and stuff like that thank you for your information. I knew they had some injuries but I had not heard anything definite so that makes sense Again appreciate the information thank you.
 
Friday:
Virginia +7.5 (2.8 Units)
C. Morris Over 243.5 passing yds (1.5 Units)
Virginia TT Over 24.5 (2.0 Units)
Arizona State -3.0 (4.5 Units)
R. Brown Over 57.5 rushing yds (2.0 Units)
Houston -12.0 (5.0 Units)-posted earlier
Houston 1H -6.5 (3.4 Units)
Oregon State TT Under 17.0 (3.0 Units)
D. Connors Over 76.5 rushing yds (2.4 Units)
 
Saturday:
11:00 a.m.-2:00 p.m.
Georgia Tech -13.5 (2.2 Units)
Illinois +6.5 (5.0 Units)
Illinois TT Over 26.5 (2.5 Units)
Notre Dame -4.5 (5.0 Units)
Notre Dame TT Over 34.0 (3.0 Units)
J. Price Over 52.5 rushing yds (1.0 Unit)
J. Love Over 103.5 rushing yds (1.8 Units)
Rutgers +4.5 (5.0 Units)
A. Kalimakis Over 254.5 passing yds (2.0 Units)
Duke -4.0 (1.0 Unit)
Pitt +3.5 (0.2 Units)
Kansas -5.5 (10.0 Units)--Post earlier this week
Kansas TT over 30.5 (2.5 Units)
UCF +5.5 (0.8 Units)
South Alabama +12.5 (4.5 Units)
Bowling Green +7.5 (0.4 Units)
Utah State +23.5 (3.8 Units)
Utah State TT over 17.0 (2.0 Units)
Eastern Michigan +3.5 (1.2 Units)
Georgia Southern +15.5 (5.0 Units)
Arkansas State +1.5 (0.2 Units)
 
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Saturday
2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m.
Washington +8.5 (3.8 Units)
Ole Miss -1,5 (4.5 Units)
Texas AM -6.5 (1.5 Units)
Iowa +8.5 (5.0 Units)
UCLA +2.0 (0.2 Units)
Cal +6.0 (0.2 Units)
Baylor -21.0 (4.5 Units)
Baylor TT over 39.5 (2.5 Units)
Utah -12.5 (1.8 Units)
Buffalo +3.5 (0.2 Units)
NIU +2.5 (1.6 Units)
Rice +14.0 (4.5 Units)
Akron +20.5 (1.0 Unit)
Miami (Ohio) -21.0 (0.8 Units)
New Mexico State +15.5 (3.5 Units)
Air Force -6.5 (5.0 Units)
Tulsa +15.5 (3.0 Units)
Mississippi State +7.5 (4.5 Units)
MTSU +7.0 (0.6 Units)
ODU -14.5 (2.0 Units)
Western Michigan -7.5 (0.5 Units)
 
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Saturday
6:00 p.m.-9:30 p.m.
Iowa State -4.5 (5.0 Units)
B. Eskidslan Over 33.5 receiving yds (2.0 Units)
Virginia Tech +9.5 (0.4 Units)
Southern Miss -3.5 (2.5 Units)
Western Kentucky -3.5 (0.8 Units)
Memphis -14.0 (5.0 Units)
Memphis TT over 37.5 (2.2 Units)
Oregon +3.5 (2.0 Units)
Alabama +2.5 (2.6 Units)
Alabama TT Over 24.5 (3.5 Units)
T. Simpson Over 269.5 passing yds (1.5 Units)
Missouri -44.5 (4.0 Units)
Colorado State -5.5 (1.4 Units)
Stanford -3.0 (1.0 Unit)
App State +16.5 (0.2 Units)
South Carolina -5.5 (3.5 Units)
Louisiana +2.0 (0.6 Units)
La Tech -3.5 (5.0 Units)
BYU -6.0 (10.0 Units)
BYU TT Over 27.5 (2.5 Units)
L. Martin (BYU) Over 93.5 rushing yds (2.5 Units)
 
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Woodman1968 said:
Thank you and I’m very new to this site. A friend of mine turned me onto it so I’m still learning the proper etiquette so to speak on addressing people and stuff like that thank you for your information. I knew they had some injuries but I had not heard anything definite so that makes sense Again appreciate the information thank you.
Click to expand...
Welcome to the site @Woodman1968 !!

Any questions or concerns, let me know.

Rochlone is a great guy to follow for picks!
 
B.A.R. said:
Welcome to the site @Woodman1968 !!

Any questions or concerns, let me know.

Rochlone is a great guy to follow for picks!
Click to expand...
Thanks
This site is awesome!
It’s also reassuring to be amongst people that know what they’re doing and not spouting off in some basement that every game is rigged when they lose and claiming they won every bet they’ve ever turned in I admit I’m addicted to reading them because they are humorous, and some of the claims are just amazing. I mean to listen to some of them you think they’ve never lost a bet in their life anyways everything I’ve read on here is positive even if somebody has a bad week there’s no shaming that person which I like cause nobody’s perfect. We’re all in this together. Sorry I sound like a public service announcement anyways good luck to Everybody.
 
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