Road to the Derby 2017

<blockquoteclass="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><a href='http://<blockquoteclass="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Make that FIVE winners for <a href="https://twitter.com/MrB_CBYanalyst">@MrB_CBYanalyst</a>, as his top pick in the Gulfstream 9th, Dickinson, wins at 9/2! Awesome work, Brian!</p>— John Piassek(@theyreoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/theyreoff/status/830528612864495618">February 11, 2017</a></blockquote> <script asyncsrc="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>' target="_blank"><script charset="utf-8" asyncsrc="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><script charset="utf-8" asyncsrc="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Make that FIVE winners for <a href="https://twitter.com/MrB_CBYanalyst">@MrB_CBYanalyst</a>, as his top pick in the Gulfstream 9th, Dickinson, wins at 9/2! Awesome work, Brian!</p>&mdash; John Piassek (@theyreoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/theyreoff/status/830528612864495618">February 11, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></blockquoteclass="twitter-tweet">
 
Pretty good job on that late pick 5 Saturday YG. I tried sneaking through the tenth with Divisidero and would up with 4 of 5. Should've singled Dickinson instead as he seemed to be the wise-guy horse.
 
Gandolf said:
Pretty good job on that late pick 5 Saturday YG. I tried sneaking through the tenth with Divisidero and would up with 4 of 5. Should've singled Dickinson instead as he seemed to be the wise-guy horse.
Click to expand...

I unfortunately singled Dickinson on my pick 5 and only used 6,12 in the last. While not singling Dickinson in my pick 4, and using 1,6,9,12 in the last. The 1 won the last race.
 
Likely one of the most painful losses I had though was Oaklawn Park pick 4 and pick 5 on Saturday. I had 5 horses in the Chanel Legacy race and didn't use the 4. Although I was knocked out I would have been singled to the 9 in the last leg, so naturally I was cheering against the 9 so I could sleep at night knowing I wasn't close with 2 of 4 and 3 of 5. The 9 was my single was was paying 3k for the pick 4 and 11k for the pick 5. As the race is going off, mid stretch call the announcer committed the cardinal sin of announcing and said the 9 is too far back today and simply didn't fire......2 furlongs later the 9 crossed the wire first and I was 4 of 5 and 3 of 4 on tickets that paid 14k. I wouldn't be mad if the race I lost was a single and a bomber came in or something, but I used 5 horses and could have had Chanel's Legacy.

So close yet so far.
 
Funny you should mention Oaklawn, today (President's Day) marks the 4th anniversary of my most depressing loss. The $1 Classix had a $303,000 carryover heading into the President's Day card, so I took a small shot at it. I was focused on early speed as Oaklawn had been kind to early speed in recent days. Had an $18 ticket: single x 9 x single x 2 x single x single. I watched it all unfold on my phone through my ADW feed.

Mizzen Maze was first, he was lone E in the mile race. Sure enough, he broke sharp, built a quick 2 length lead and cruised. 9/2 odds

Next race was an odd maiden claimer with five first time starters. Couldn't make heads or tails of it and only threw out a couple. Winner was a first going wire to wire at 10/1. NICE.

Next race, favorite Harborplace looked strong and looked to be the speed of the speed. Another wire winner, 2/1.

4th leg, I thought the favorite, Stereo in Motion was tough, but he was a closer-type, so I paired him with early runner Bullcreekroad. Bullcreekroad blasted off to a 46&3 and set the table, Stereo in Motion rallied from 13 lengths back to win at 9/5.

Next up was my boldest single. Transylvania Flash looked like another lone speed type and went off at 8/1. After getting challenged on the turn he exploded away and drew off to win by 8. Sweeeet! Five up, five down, was at least guaranteed a conso.

I was feeling good about the last race. 6 furlong sprint. I had the favorite, Fevernthefunkhouse, being ridden by Calvin Borel. He was breaking from post 2 and knowing Bo-rail I figured he would be sent and have the shortest journey. It was about 5:30 and I was pacing in my office. I tried checking the will pays....no luck, Oaklawn didn't post for the Classix. Suddenly my phone rang. It was my daughter.....the chatty one. She was notorious for her bad timing....she later called me with two minutes to post at the California Chrome Belmont Stakes, not realizing I was actually at the race! I could sense the mojo slipping away, but I managed to extricate myself just before post time. I went back to the live feed.....WTF.....what happened to the track?

Apparently there was a huge downpour just after the end of the last race that turned the track from fast to sloppy. Shit. I knew my horse was good but was he a mudder?

It didn't take long. Fever broke well but Bobcat Jim, a 9/2 shot, broke a little better, just to his outside. Fever tried to stay with him but Jim was clearly best, and he slowly drew away splashing his way down the stretch. Dammit.

I tallied up the winner's odd to try to guess at a parlay price for the winning tickets. A straight parlay on a $1 ticket was $30,000. Figured a 33% boost for the parlay, and another 50% for the carryover funds, so probably 80 grand to the winning tickets. Probably would've been 50 grand for me if I'd have won.

Then I saw the payoff..................SINGLE WINNING TICKET.............. $548,533 :prayer

My one 5/6 conso paid $816. Nice win but damn....I was sick for a long time about missing that one. Didn't answer another call from my daughter for months, lol.
 
Winkfield and Southwest running today on this President's Day. Uncontested is favored in the Southwest but Johnny V made the trip to Hot Springs with Pletcher's horse One Liner. Hmmmm. Bavaro favored in the Winkfield, sure to get a lot of play in New York. Could a horse name Sal the Turtle actually be fast?

Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream (all starter stakes): 3,7,9 / 1,9 / 2,4,5 / 2,8,11
 
We start punching tickets in earnest this weekend with the first 50 point race, the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Full field of 14 going 1 1/16 miles. Good group of trainers, although no Baffert or Pletcher entries:

1 Girvin - most lightly raced, only 3rd start, returns to dirt after a good turf stakes effort. Won at 6f in career debut at Fairgrounds. Well considered in last race, still considered viable with 6/1 morning line. Trainer is 1 for 32 in graded stakes, so this is a bit out of his league. Still has a lot of prove.

2 Untrapped - steadily improving, second in the muddy Lecomte, where he was gaining ground late. Trainer knows how to win. Sire is through Tapit, who's been solid in recent years. At 10/1 worth a serious look.

3 Local Hero - Moves from maidens to stakes company after a giant win at track, geared down late after being up 10 lengths. The "other" Assmussen along with #2. Figures to go right to the front and take them as far as he can. Geroux hitting at 29% at track! Very dangerous on a track that's seen 40% wire to wire winners at this distance to date.

4 Arklow - relatively close 4th in Lecomte without many apparent excuses. Still a maiden, now 0 for 2 against #10 Takeoff. Not sure what would propel him to victory now.

5 Shareholder Value - experienced horse, has passed n1x level with six starts under him. Was bumped and shuffled back early in Lecomte, ran on well for fifth. Has a two turn win at the track. Amoss is in his element here, 27% at the meet, has a +1.05 ROI in graded stakes. Finished within 8 lengths of McCracken at Kentucky Jockey Club. Son of Uncle Mo who's been a sharp stud so far. At 15/1 morning line this one has real value.

6 Guest Suite - winner of Lecomte now 3-0-2 in his 5 race career. Alway seems to give a solid try. Not sure why he's 6/1, although that's tied for 3rd choice in this big field. Worth using based on consistency.

7 US Officer - had 7 starts as a two year, but has been off since mid-December. Last start at Remington was his fasted effort, but he lost to Cool Arrow for the second time. Not sure how much improvement we'll see this year, although last workout was good. Big stage for trainer, 0 for 12 in graded stakes. Not a lot to love here.

8 Cool Arrow - winner of three of last four, including 300k stake at Remington last out, but also has a big win at Laurel, albeit in a maiden claimer. The other Joe Sharp (1 for 32 in graded stakes) entry. Could put some pressure on Local Hero upfront to set things up for stalkers. Like him a little better than Sharp's other horse, and he'll be higher priced, but not really a top contender.

9 Mo Town - favorite, winner of Grade 2 Remsen lure Johnny V into town to ride. Has best speed figure by far to date and it was at the extra length of 9 furlongs. Stalk and pounce style should set him in a good position as they hit the stretch. Three straight bullet works heading into this, should be a serious contender.

10 Takeoff - outfinished in the Lecomte, switches back to Leparoux after the other Frenchman Geroux had last two mounts. Sire Arch also sired Ark Derby winner ArchArchArch. Has weakened in stretch in two out of three two turn races, which I hate. If he wins it won't be with my money.

11 Sorry Erik - eight time start with no Bris Speed Rating higher than 86 (par of this race is 99). Ships from California, but feels like he's C level, not triple crown nominated. Not sure what his connections are thinking. No thanks.

12 Horse Fly - six starts, no Bris Speed above 85. Finally broke maiden in sixth try by a dirty nose at Oaklawn last start. Not sure again why their shipping him south other than trying to strike while the iron is hot. No thanks.

13 It's Your Nickel - 4th start, won n1x last out due to disqualification. 2nd start off layoff could show continued improvement, but he'll have to take a huge leap to match up with others here.

14 So Conflated - won Cal Derby on poly at Golden Gate last out, now ships 1/2 way across US for O'Neill, who brings his "A" rider Gutierrez along. Could be an interesting choice here, showed a strong finishing kick in Derby. Worth a look at 10/1 price.

Win Possibles - 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 14. Will be playing with these in some combination.
 
Marty McGee , Tampa Bay Downs , 2017-02-28 - DRF LivePosted : 7 mins ago
[h=2]Derby favorite McCraken to miss Tampa Derby[/h]McCRAKEN, the unbeaten colt who ranks as the current favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby, will miss his next scheduled prep race, the March 11 Tampa Bay Derby, after being diagnosed with what trainer Ian Wilkes described as a “very minor” injury to his left front ankle.
All was fine following for McCraken following a Monday breeze at the Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, Fla., but “we noticed he was a little off this morning,” Wilkes said Tuesday. “We x-rayed it and he’s clean, so that’s good. But I just want to give him a little time for the ankle to flatten down. We’ll use poultice and ice and everything and see how he does and hopefully he’ll back to the track soon enough.”
Wilkes said the plan now is to go straight to the April 8 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for a final prep for the Derby and that he is optimistic that is a feasible plan.
McCraken, unbeaten in four starts for owner-breeder Whitham Thoroughbreds, won the Feb. 11 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa in his 3-year-old debut in track-record time.
In Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager held last weekend, McCraken closed at 6-1, the lowest odds of any individually listed interest.

 
This is huge regardless of if it is truly "nothing" or not. I think the Derby is a wide open affair this year and may be a welcomed opportunity considering we have had some heavy favorites last 3 years between Nyquist, Chrome, and Pharaoh
 
Irish War Cry said to be looking great in training right now.

Agree we could use a wide-open Derby for a change. Last year's was an all-time stinker in terms of WPS and vertical payouts.
 
I am writing my column for Saturday and what a tough card. I don't think Irish Warcry is the lock everyone else is discussing. That race is awfully competitive and many could continue to improve with how lightly raced the entire field is.
 
2,5,6,8,11 for me.

2: This $16,000 purchase is what dreams are made of with 7 races and $840,000 in earnings already and surely more to come. Seems like a hard knocker, who will have a successful career but likely to fill out the tri and super versus win.

5: Might be my favorite longshot possibility in here. Tries hard every time, and unlike many in here does not need the lead despite last out running line. He should improve 2nd time routing, and will give it his all every time like his daddy Shackleford.

6: Wise guy horse in my opinion. Appreciate what he has done in his 2 year odl campaign for sure, but it's awfully tough to close on this surface as his running style doesn't fit at GP. However, horses can make huge strides from 2 to 3 years old, his resume speaks for itself but plenty of questions of a lengthy layoff at low odds.

8: Surely the one to beat in here off of last race performance. However let's not forget he wasn't favored that day and was luke warm on the board at 9-2, so why settle for 6-5 of 8-5 today? I think he is a play against that could win for fun. Likely to single on one ticket and try and beat on another. He is not going to be afforded a loose lead Saturday and will likely be pressured all the way around.

11: Interested to see how Lookin for Eight will improve in the Casse Barn. Tough post, but last time out seemed like he would take to a stretch out very well. Love the fact he fires back with 3 workouts since the last. Another who may not win, but a must use underneath as there is no way he should be 20-1 after losing to a 1-5 Battalian Runner and then beating a nice field in hand last time out.
 
Mark Hennig‏ @Hennigracing <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 1h1 hour ago</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: -2px -9px 0px 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; position: relative;">More
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Beasley will be scratched from today's FOY, breezed a 1/2 in :46.4 this morning in preparation for the TB Derby.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
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Beasley will be scratched from today's FOY, breezed a 1/2 in :46.4 this morning in preparation for the TB Derby.
Click to expand...
Definitely
hurts dynamics of race as he was one of the early speeds
 
Pace setting favorites thoroughly trounced in both the Gotham and FOY. Good to see. Those types always get overbet in the Derby and until the last few years usually failed and allowed price horses to come in and boost the exotics. Lets hope we're getting back to less predictability in May.
 
Jackpot Hi 5 is a must pay pool today in the last race at woodbine fwiw. One of the largest overlays each time it happens that you can find in horse racing without cheating.
 
Bizarre couple of races on the trail this past weekend. The two biggest prices go 1-2 in the Spiral. Maker is no slouch as a trainer but this was the higher priced of his two entered. Pace was pretty solid and Fast and Accurate attended to it, staying within 1-1.5 lengths of his stablemate En Hasse before making a big move on the far turn. With only 35-1 Blueridge Traveler closing any ground in the stretch its hard to endorse any of these mules.

The Sunland Derby is a tough read. Track was sped up as usual, with the Oaks, Henson and Derby all showing 45 & change and 1:10 and change splits. Like the Spiral, Hence was one of two from Steve Asmussen, although this time it was the better price winning. That extra furlong seemed to wipe out everyone but the winner, who broke like a slug but circled the field around the far turn and drew off well. The fact that pace leader Hedge Fund managed to hold on to 3rd while finishing over 8 lengths behind the winner showed me that overall this was a pretty substandard group. But the winner's performance turned some heads.

Hence, I'll be watching Hence in the run up to the Derby to see how he's doing. He looks like a good price candidate to at least catch a piece of the super.

Didn't see the UAE Derby but with the muddled picture this year and the fact that the favorite came through to win in a nice stretch duel with established Derby qualifier Epicharis, on a track that held up well for American horses, makes me think there may be a better chance than usual for the foreign invaders. Although the final time seemed a little slow.
 
Doubleheader of 100 point races just ahead, LA Derby and FL Derby.

In LA, Patch looks potentially like another Malagacy for Pletcher, who's just loaded with 3yo's this spring. If he can't get then I expect Girvin and Guest Suite to renew acquaintances yet again.


In FL, Gunnevera looks for a repeat of his Fountain of Youth win, and the biggest challengers look like another Pletcher sophomore, Always Dreaming, and Three Rules who should be the one to catch at the top of the stretch.
 
Pletcher gonna be really busy on Derby day, not sure we can bet against them all.....
 
Side note, so glad I don't have to wait for another tardy post time from Gulfstream for the rest of the year.
 
I don't like the West Coast division right now, no standout 3yo anywhere right now....still wide open
 
Gotham seemed like a sneaky good race to me. Liking Cloud Computing in the Wood, J Boys Echo in the Bluegrass, and Gormley with a bounceback effort at Santa Anita.
 
Well, one out of three isn't bad when the one is on the board at 6/1 as Gormley was. It was a day of bounce backs as Irish War Cry ran back to his Holy Bull effort to win the Wood. That wasn't too surprising; I left him off my Pick 5 ticket for budget purposes only (just as well, since I never would've used 50-1 Green Gratto in the Carter). The real shocker was Irap coming out on top at 35/1 in the Blue Grass, beating McCracken, Practical Joke, J Boys Echo and Tapwrit, all considered serious Derby contenders. The only angles that make sense here were Irap's fitness level coming in on a quick 2 week turnaround vs. horses working a full month to two months since their last start, and then the equipment change back to blinkers off. However equipment changes immediately before the Derby are generally a strike against a legit Derby contender. This season just gets more and more curious. There are not be a horse below 5/1 this year, it's looking that wide open.

Current top 20 with one 100 pointer to go (Arkansas Derby).

1. Girvin, 150, Joe Sharp
2. Gormley, 125, John Shirreffs
3. Irap, 113, Doug O’Neill
4. Irish War Cry, 110, Graham Motion
5. Thunder Snow, 100, Saeed bin Suroor
6. Always Dreaming, 100, Todd Pletcher
7. Gunnevera, 84, Antonio Sano
8. Practical Joke, 74, Chad Brown
9. J Boys Echo, 63, Dale Romans
10. State of Honor, 62, Mark Casse
11. Tapwrit, 54, Todd Pletcher
12. Malagacy, 50, Todd Pletcher
13. Hence, 50, Steve Asmussen
14. Fast and Accurate, 50, Mike Maker
15. McCraken, 40, Ian Wilkes
16. Battle of Midway, 40, Jerry Hollendorfer
17. Patch, 40, Todd Pletcher
18. Battalion Runner, 40, Todd Pletcher
19. Cloud Computing, 40, Chad Brown
20. Untrapped, 34, Steve Asmussen

Anticipated Lineup at Oaklawn on 4/15:

Petrov (Moquett/Sanatana) - 13 points
Malagacy (Pletcher/Castellano) - 50 points IN
Classic Empire (Casse/Leparoux) - 32 points, #21 on list
Sonneteer (Desormeaux/Eramia) - 20 points
Untrapped (Asmussen/I. Ortiz) - 34 points, #20 on list
Lookin at Lee (Asmussen/Vasquez) - 12 points
Silver Dust (Morse/Lanerie) - 1 point
Blueridge Traveler (McPeek) - 20 points
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez) - 20 points
Dilettante (Lukas)
 
I had McCracken, Tapwrit, and Practical Joke on 2 pick 4's that the lowest payout was $3,500 since there was two 20-1 shots prior. To physically watch the race, and watch your money go down to a Maiden made me physically ill haha. I especially hate Leparoux as well.

All in all, I didn't put a ton of stock into the race. I think all 3 ran poorly and were victims of a very slow pace as the track played towards speed the entire weekend. I don't think any of the 3 trainers had them fully cranked as it appears all 3 are safe to head into the Derby.

What is telling, and I am not saying I disagree at all but Brian Hernandez decision to stick with McCracken in the Derby and hop off of Girvin. With the addition of Mike Smith riding Girvin that should assure he will take plenty of money come the first Saturday in May.

I am very disappointed to see One Liner off of the Derby trail. With all the disappointment surrounding elsewhere, I thought he would have a good chance the way he won at Oaklawn, as that was his first time routing and he was sure to improve with more distance. Oaklawn has put themselves in a great position as their is plenty of very good horses who need to do well in order to get a chance for the roses. What is unfortunate is the trainers may have put themselves in the spot to need to peak performance on 4/15 instead of 5/5. I would love to somehow see Petrov and Lookin at Lee sneak into the derby. There is still so much up in the air right now which is a nice change of pace. I think with addition of Mike Smith it will make Girvin a likely fav in the Derby or contending fav along with McCracken and Gunnevera. I still think there will be so much value as Girvin, McCracken, and Gunnevera (add Classic Empire maybe) will take a ton of money.

We will know a lot more after Saturday!
 
Have Oaklawn and Keeneland capped for both days. Alive in Keeneland Pick 4 to 123689.

Oaklawn P4
2: 13456791112 single 4 $48
3: 39
4: 2356910
5: 245678910 single 8 $54

PAID $1801

Late pick 4:
7: 18
8: 1356891012
9: 13
10: 16712 $64 PAID $483
 
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