Skins @ Minny.
Skins have outgained 4 out of the last 5 games (exception at Denver). Minny has been outgained every game except last week vs. Dallas. Skins are average slightly over 400 yards per game and Minny is giving up slightly less than 400 yards per game. Minny is about middle of the pack vs. the run and bottom 5 vs. the pass. They are facing a top 5 run game and a bottom 10 pass game. Minny on offense is among the worst in passing and pretty good at running, obviously. Skins on defense middle of the pack vs the pass and among the worst vs. the run.
Last matchup at Fed Ex, Washington escaped with a double digit lead. They were up 31-12 in the 4th and Minny got it to within one score and had a 3rd down, but RG3 had the biggest run of his career to score and seal the game. Last year, Minny was able to shut down Morris and were shut down themselves running the ball. Ponder was able to beat the Skins through the air, mainly to Percy Harvin.
Losing Rudolph is a big loss for the Vikings ans he was often a target of Ponder on 3rd down vs. blitzes. Essentially he would just throw the ball up to Rudolph.
Point totals don't always show the success of a unit. I think the Skins defense has played pretty well the past few weeks (at least up to their standards of earlier in the year). I would say ever since the Detroit game, they have performed well, even somewhat vs. Denver. Oakland and Dallas did nothing offensively vs. the Skins. Chi put up 41, but that was due to turnovers and special teams (reason why Dallas put up 31) Bears had 21 first downs and 359 yards, really just one long play given up to Forte. Last week vs. SD they allowed an int in the end zone so the defense gave up 17 points and created 2 turnovers.
The real difference with the Skins is obviously the health of RG3. Since the bye, they have gone back to getting him on the move again which has really opened up the run game and given him some passing lanes. The whole offense is reliant on running the ball and play action; when they get down, they are worthless. Minny really hasn't faced a ton of strong running teams and I think that has inflated their stats a little bit. Dallas had no interest at all last week in running the ball. Minny will have short rest to prepare for a different type of offense than they've seen this year (though they saw last year).
RG3 in the dome may be even more of a threat with his speed and it's something Minny will have to gameplan for. Their secondary is also not good enough to sell out vs. the run or there will be open WRs down the field. I look for Aldrick Robinson to make an impact in this game, even if it's just keeping the safeties away from the line of scrimmage.
I am a Skins fan, but this is a game I feel they win. They have some momentum going (lost vs. Denver, but really played well until late). Im concerned that I think a lot of people are on the Skins, but I see them having some success on the ground and it really opening up the passing game. The way to beat the Skins is to jump out to a lead and take away the run....I don't see the Vikes doing that. They are going to try and run the ball and keep the ball out of Ponders hands for the most part. I think the Skins surprise some people and limit some points scored by the Vikes. They will blitz Ponder relentlessly on 3rd down.
