CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
OK fellas, got a few plays already in. Try to briefly write them up. Probably won't end up with many plays after these but who knows. Ended up 9-3 on Saturday, who know the two second half decent sized plays would end up being ones that ruined an otherwise real good day.
Bowling Green ran 113 plays on offense last week and beat Indiana a year after losing to them by about 30. The backup QB directed the Beegees for 395 yards. What will Mauk do? This Missouri team is not in rebuilding stage; they're reloading at this point in defense of their SEC East crown. Money drove the game down, only one way to go now.
The play: 308 Missouri -13 flat medium. I have not seen it yet but when you do, it's a recommendation at that level.
As I listed earlier today in the movement thread, was able to go UNDER 57 and OVER 52.5 in the Maryland game, and recommended all who were around to do the same. Both were small to medium 1.5u plays. Rotation number 317-318. I also did the same with 373-374 U of L/FIU, going UNDER 49 and a few minutes ago, OVER 44.5. Same 1.5u plays on both games.
Watched Wiskydicks go up all week, and realize they might physically punish the Beegees, but their running game looked suspect a couple of weeks ago and I'll take a stab with a QB who can throw 70 passes a game.
The play: 325 Beegees +27 small to medium.
I not sure who will be right on these games where I opened one side the favorite and the other side gets bet to a field goal favorite. But as bad as Wake might be, I still made them -5 and have to take here. Army 11 losses in a row ATS as a visitor and Wake held them without a touchdown last year at West Point. Sure, I know the regime is different, but seems some baby steps have been made with QB Wolford, a true frosh, throwing for 548 yards and four touchdowns the last two games.
The play: 330 Wake Forest +125 ML medium.
There won't be many more chances to get Vandy. People are starting to figure out what an unmitigated disaster this coach is. Sakerlina should show no letup here; OBC has thrived in these spots when picking on weaker over the years. His defense will surely relish this spot after getting Ayyunem, E Caro and Jorja to open the season; that's 3 probable top-10 national offenses. Vandy was to the death against MAC doormat UMass last week, scoring two touchdowns late and watching the Minutemen backup kicker miss a chip shot at the end after they had 1st and goal late to eek one out.
The play: 339 Sakerlina -21.5 medium.
I liked Hawaii but my price there included the bruising RB, and without him and them making the first trip to the mainland of the season, I'll sit it out. Tangible progress could be happening at Colorado; I'll pass here even though my numbers supports a take on 343 +8 or more.
I liked Southern Miss's effort last week and even though they've only won 2 of their last 27 and are laying here, I think this is a good spot. Alabama's longest touchdown last week was a 29 yard run. Appalachian State has had two games against teams it doesn't belong on the field with (Michigan at the top end, and I-AA doormat Campbell at the other end). I'll side with the Golden Eagles at this price, as I think it should be a touchdown.
The play: 350 Southern Miss -2.5 medium
Game 2 in the showdown of who is right, the linesmakers or the bettors is 351-352. The Glantz/Korner crew in Vegas made this game a PICK. Betonline opened first at -3.5 on the bottom; the M opened later at -4 on the bottom. I made it at a touchdown, so no play for me at that level. But this move changed my mind. One limit bet shoved it inside a field goal, and sharp money has been on Georgia Southern at +2, PICK and -2. My turn to get it to come back at some point.
The play: 352 South Bama PICK small. South Bama +3 small to medium. Call it a 2.25 unit play or so. Just have to trust my work. Sharpies bet this Ga Southern last week and they were right; luckily I stayed away. This week i'll try my luck against them.
i was really hoping that i made Oregon higher this week. That coach has my respect after the way they rallied from being brain dead against Michigan State. He'll be redassed after Wazzou kept throwing the ball last year; i think he threw like 91 passes in an eventual 62-38 loss where Leach's bunch easily covered the 39 or so. But I only made the game right at the number, and Wazzou has caught +31 each of the last four meetings and lost by no more than 25 in any of them.
Took a price on Clempson (as stated in the other thread) as soon as CRIS opened back up the FSU game following the first half Winston suspension. Will be selling back at hopefully much lower. Gotta admit it's tough to not even do better than -16 -105 at a sportsbook.com-type place. Will set for now. I'm not done with this game yet.
THe plays: 365 Clem +17.5 medium. Will sell the whole thing back on FSU, but i'll have to figure out how i want to do it first. Stand by.
I really wish I made BYU higher. I had them last year for a real big bet in the season opener at Virginia and basically everything that could go wrong for me to lose the bet did, despite me getting the best of the price by about 3 points. Dominate line of scrimmage both sides, but a couple of key turnovers go against you. Start asserting yourself, then take two hours off for a lightning delay. Come back out and the wet field is much worse for your team than the other team for some reason (cleats?). Shit you just can't handicap beat me that day, and it's why the best of the best at this can't even hit 3 out of every 5 bets consistently. They're headed straight for a 12-0 season and this Virginia is off a very emotional effort and win. Now they travel to altitude to face a revenge-minded opponent with 36 hours extra rest. I'm sick that I can't bet them here.
Lots of love for Old Dominican, and I guess I can respect their senior-laden team and QB Heinicke, but the loss to NC State doesn't tell me much about their defense. With Rice playing at Notre Dame and A&M on the road, this will feel like a walk in the park, as Rice has Texas talent and Old Dome is playing against a full I-A schedule for the first time. The Owls had the ball for 43 mins last week at Kyle Field; they'll be able to run the ball up and down the field here. Why so cheap?
The play: 372 Rice -6.5 -105 big.
Took a lead the other day. Am a bit nervous about the potential physical mismatch, but NIU has always one to battle on the road, winning 17 straight away from DeKalb in true roadies and covering 14 of those. Hare seems another in a long line of more-than-capable Huskie QB's and Stingily should help keep the NIU defense off the field for long periods.
The play: 381 N Illy +14.5 medium (see line movement thread for when I made the bet; the line was widely available). I would take 14 for the same but anything less would only be a smaller play.
Just gonna wait to see how much farther game 391-392 falls. Arizona's offense is scoring 40 ppg, and Cal's defense should have all sorts of trouble keeping them below 45. Meanwhile, this version of the Desert Swarm will have had ample prep tape on Cal's second-year offense. The rotating QB system that ambushed Northwestern is far less likely to catch wily Rich Rod off guard. Close call last year keeps Arizona properly focused here.
The play: 392 Arizona -7 flat or better (currently not available) big, 3 units (up to 3.5 or 4 units if it goes to 6.5 flat or so).
Ariz -7.5 to -9.5 medium to big 2.5u.
Good luck this week!
:shake:
Bowling Green ran 113 plays on offense last week and beat Indiana a year after losing to them by about 30. The backup QB directed the Beegees for 395 yards. What will Mauk do? This Missouri team is not in rebuilding stage; they're reloading at this point in defense of their SEC East crown. Money drove the game down, only one way to go now.
The play: 308 Missouri -13 flat medium. I have not seen it yet but when you do, it's a recommendation at that level.
As I listed earlier today in the movement thread, was able to go UNDER 57 and OVER 52.5 in the Maryland game, and recommended all who were around to do the same. Both were small to medium 1.5u plays. Rotation number 317-318. I also did the same with 373-374 U of L/FIU, going UNDER 49 and a few minutes ago, OVER 44.5. Same 1.5u plays on both games.
Watched Wiskydicks go up all week, and realize they might physically punish the Beegees, but their running game looked suspect a couple of weeks ago and I'll take a stab with a QB who can throw 70 passes a game.
The play: 325 Beegees +27 small to medium.
I not sure who will be right on these games where I opened one side the favorite and the other side gets bet to a field goal favorite. But as bad as Wake might be, I still made them -5 and have to take here. Army 11 losses in a row ATS as a visitor and Wake held them without a touchdown last year at West Point. Sure, I know the regime is different, but seems some baby steps have been made with QB Wolford, a true frosh, throwing for 548 yards and four touchdowns the last two games.
The play: 330 Wake Forest +125 ML medium.
There won't be many more chances to get Vandy. People are starting to figure out what an unmitigated disaster this coach is. Sakerlina should show no letup here; OBC has thrived in these spots when picking on weaker over the years. His defense will surely relish this spot after getting Ayyunem, E Caro and Jorja to open the season; that's 3 probable top-10 national offenses. Vandy was to the death against MAC doormat UMass last week, scoring two touchdowns late and watching the Minutemen backup kicker miss a chip shot at the end after they had 1st and goal late to eek one out.
The play: 339 Sakerlina -21.5 medium.
I liked Hawaii but my price there included the bruising RB, and without him and them making the first trip to the mainland of the season, I'll sit it out. Tangible progress could be happening at Colorado; I'll pass here even though my numbers supports a take on 343 +8 or more.
I liked Southern Miss's effort last week and even though they've only won 2 of their last 27 and are laying here, I think this is a good spot. Alabama's longest touchdown last week was a 29 yard run. Appalachian State has had two games against teams it doesn't belong on the field with (Michigan at the top end, and I-AA doormat Campbell at the other end). I'll side with the Golden Eagles at this price, as I think it should be a touchdown.
The play: 350 Southern Miss -2.5 medium
Game 2 in the showdown of who is right, the linesmakers or the bettors is 351-352. The Glantz/Korner crew in Vegas made this game a PICK. Betonline opened first at -3.5 on the bottom; the M opened later at -4 on the bottom. I made it at a touchdown, so no play for me at that level. But this move changed my mind. One limit bet shoved it inside a field goal, and sharp money has been on Georgia Southern at +2, PICK and -2. My turn to get it to come back at some point.
The play: 352 South Bama PICK small. South Bama +3 small to medium. Call it a 2.25 unit play or so. Just have to trust my work. Sharpies bet this Ga Southern last week and they were right; luckily I stayed away. This week i'll try my luck against them.
i was really hoping that i made Oregon higher this week. That coach has my respect after the way they rallied from being brain dead against Michigan State. He'll be redassed after Wazzou kept throwing the ball last year; i think he threw like 91 passes in an eventual 62-38 loss where Leach's bunch easily covered the 39 or so. But I only made the game right at the number, and Wazzou has caught +31 each of the last four meetings and lost by no more than 25 in any of them.
Took a price on Clempson (as stated in the other thread) as soon as CRIS opened back up the FSU game following the first half Winston suspension. Will be selling back at hopefully much lower. Gotta admit it's tough to not even do better than -16 -105 at a sportsbook.com-type place. Will set for now. I'm not done with this game yet.
THe plays: 365 Clem +17.5 medium. Will sell the whole thing back on FSU, but i'll have to figure out how i want to do it first. Stand by.
I really wish I made BYU higher. I had them last year for a real big bet in the season opener at Virginia and basically everything that could go wrong for me to lose the bet did, despite me getting the best of the price by about 3 points. Dominate line of scrimmage both sides, but a couple of key turnovers go against you. Start asserting yourself, then take two hours off for a lightning delay. Come back out and the wet field is much worse for your team than the other team for some reason (cleats?). Shit you just can't handicap beat me that day, and it's why the best of the best at this can't even hit 3 out of every 5 bets consistently. They're headed straight for a 12-0 season and this Virginia is off a very emotional effort and win. Now they travel to altitude to face a revenge-minded opponent with 36 hours extra rest. I'm sick that I can't bet them here.
Lots of love for Old Dominican, and I guess I can respect their senior-laden team and QB Heinicke, but the loss to NC State doesn't tell me much about their defense. With Rice playing at Notre Dame and A&M on the road, this will feel like a walk in the park, as Rice has Texas talent and Old Dome is playing against a full I-A schedule for the first time. The Owls had the ball for 43 mins last week at Kyle Field; they'll be able to run the ball up and down the field here. Why so cheap?
The play: 372 Rice -6.5 -105 big.
Took a lead the other day. Am a bit nervous about the potential physical mismatch, but NIU has always one to battle on the road, winning 17 straight away from DeKalb in true roadies and covering 14 of those. Hare seems another in a long line of more-than-capable Huskie QB's and Stingily should help keep the NIU defense off the field for long periods.
The play: 381 N Illy +14.5 medium (see line movement thread for when I made the bet; the line was widely available). I would take 14 for the same but anything less would only be a smaller play.
Just gonna wait to see how much farther game 391-392 falls. Arizona's offense is scoring 40 ppg, and Cal's defense should have all sorts of trouble keeping them below 45. Meanwhile, this version of the Desert Swarm will have had ample prep tape on Cal's second-year offense. The rotating QB system that ambushed Northwestern is far less likely to catch wily Rich Rod off guard. Close call last year keeps Arizona properly focused here.
The play: 392 Arizona -7 flat or better (currently not available) big, 3 units (up to 3.5 or 4 units if it goes to 6.5 flat or so).
Ariz -7.5 to -9.5 medium to big 2.5u.
Good luck this week!
:shake:
