Rexy's Week 2 College...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Ended up a winner last week, somewhere in the 4-3-1 range with Okie State and 2H LSU being nice hits in addition to Louisville anoche, the biggest play of the week.

Fairly busy this week with new work projects, so feel free to ask about any game, and I'll try to do what I did last week and get a sentence or two about every game when time permits, if not any more.

Wrong team favored in Reno. Washington State might well be able to chuck and duck it all way the downfield, but I'll trust in now-healthy 13th-year senior QB Cody Fajardo (7k yards passing, 2k rushing for career) and the Wolf Pack to get the job done at home. If Rutgers could move the ball up and down the field against the Wazzou defense, what will Fajardo do? Reno +3 medium.

Will have a long look at Toledo if a 7 pops at home against Mizzou.

Made Mississippi State a smidge higher against U-ab and might consider laying 27, and probably will if it goes below that.

Wrong team favored in Atlanta. That said, anyone who is super excited about betting New Mexico State OR Georgia State without catching substantial points needs professional help, and probably needs it immediately.

I made Colorado much cheaper at UMass, but again, anyone rushing out the door to bet on UMass needs professional help, and probably needs it immediately.

Made Utah cheaper, but not in any rush to bet Fresno; I probably have a bad rating there.

Made Penn State cheaper, but I'm not laying that. Akron is better than I have them rated, almost for sure.

Some sets of numbers I saw on Ohio U/UK were much lower than it opened out in Vegas. Surprised that the M popped a 10 there, and disappointed as well. Kentucky was going to be a lay for me in the 7-ish range. Can't lay more than that -at least not for now.

Made Florida higher but who F-in knows.

Michigan State starting to look a bit more attractive at this level. Probably going to wish I had taken 13.5 at some point but won't force it for now.

Lean to Duke a little bit but sure don't want to start laying three touchdowns with them, on the road nonetheless.

Made Sakerlina a little bit higher but would only be interested in laying 14 tops.

Made Notre Dame a little bit higher but not interested in laying more than about 3 there.

UCLA should be higher I think, but I might have bad rating on Memphis State. Pass.

Air Force favored at Wyoming? How can that be? Wyoming coach obviously has a clue about what's going on, just beat a 10-win Montana team last week. I have bad number on AFA, as I made them 10 full points lower against Nicholls State last week, but home dog in the MWC seems a no-brainer. Wyoming beat this bunch 56-23 last year, and return a bevy of skill players and most of their defense. Wyoming +2.5 and 2 is a big bet and I've got some ML offscreen at +120 ish also...

Boise I made much higher but might have bad price on Culo State. Then again, I did bet them last week so who F-in knows.

That's it for now. GL this week fellas; i'm sure i'll have some adds as soon as some of these touts release and fuck up all the lines.

:shake:
 
Tulane breaking in a new stadium so i give them a bit more for HFA than I normally would. Extra prep time might help but mitigated by GT playing a I-AA team last week. I made the game 9 and feel pretty comfortable with my number. Can't see myself getting involved with the game, at least not til the half ;)
 
i made Texas 1, and see that it's going to re-open something close to that, so won't be involved most likely. Am relatively sure that Mormons are superior team on paper but with Texas new coach and revenge, not sure what to expect. Will almost assuredly be passing.
 
as will i, just wondering how in the hell the horns offense is supposed to manufacture yards with those two being out.
 
Texas is sitting at 3 now post-Ash news. With Daje out we have no one with perimeter speed on the outside / no deep threat. And there's also a question to begin with of whether Swoopes can even get the ball to someone that is open. You talk about a bunch of guys around the line of scrimmage? Wait till you see BYU on defense this Saturday.
 
Adding Stanford -2.5 small to medium. Guy I respect made it higher, and most numbers in Vegas i see are saying it should be 4. Walters bet the dog yesterday but I think it's a smokescreen and the game will go back up at some point. Just taking a price.
 
Air Force favored at Wyoming? How can that be? Wyoming coach obviously has a clue about what's going on, just beat a 10-win Montana team last week. I have bad number on AFA, as I made them 10 full points lower against Nicholls State last week, but home dog in the MWC seems a no-brainer. Wyoming beat this bunch 56-23 last year, and return a bevy of skill players and most of their defense. Wyoming +2.5 and 2 is a big bet and I've got some ML offscreen at +120 ish also...

I had WYO vs Montana.

The Wyoming offense is very different than the Bret Smith led teams. Bohl wants to be power run team and I fear that some of their receiving weapons may end up under utilized. That and I also fear that Kirkegaard isn't all that good in getting the ball to these guys when called to do so. He didn't do much vs Montana to give me confidence.

Wyoming was able to keep pounding it on the ground which paid off for them in the 2nd half vs Montana where the bulk of their rush yards came on their last several drives of the game. Montana did get pressure and had 6 sacks and 9 tfl.

So offensively I think Wyoming will need to be better vs AF than they were vs Montana to win. That effort won't be good enough this week.

Defensively WYO has a history of playing well vs the option, they have players on hand to defend it, who know how to defend it and the new coaching staff is certainly familiar enough to put a good plan in place to prep for it. That would be the edge WYO would have here, not offensively I think.

I don't know anything about Air Force this year. Other than what we all know from last year that they were riddled with injury in 2012 and starting 4th string QB I think so I'm hesitant to put alot of stock in last years AF outcomes. At times I'm sure they were not giving their best effort for Calhoun. Playing half assed at an academy, especially with a winning history like AF is pretty strange, but the didn't play with much heart last year.

Just wanted to offer some thoughts if you didn't see much of the WYO-Montana game.
 
Made Reno -3...We will win this game, it will be high scoring, but, us hammering it down their throats all game will kill then in the 4th.
 
Yeah these threads are a must see...

I recommend this guy to anyone..Good capping with a savvy sense of the market..
 
Rex what are your thoughts on the Thurs night game? Everyone and their mother seems to favor Zona here and I realize they probably have a huge talent advantage but I can't get past the fact that UTSA has 20 returning starters and I can never trust Rick rod to cover spreads. 6-7 ATS last year alone.
 
I only made the game 6.5 but if i had a gun to the head I would bet on Arizona. Line should go up as I think most sharp money I've charted is on the favorite, although that could be phoney. I also do not feel confident about my rating on San Antonio. Were they good last week, or did they just beat up on a bad team? We'll find out a bit more tonight, for sure. I'll be NiffelKingRex though, tonight, considering that my only play for the pros this week so far is tonight.
 
Rexy..long time no talk bud..

Have a feel on the BC game tonight. I made the line closer to Pitt -2, therefore leaning to a med play on BC. Thoughts?
 
Reno gets the week off to a good start. Gotdamn, my thread was buried in the middle of page 2. Good shit, lots of people chiming in here.

Added Penn State -13.5 medium game 342. Matches up with two other guys I respect.

Added Michigan State +13 small to medium.

GL; i'll try to post second half plays when i get time

:shake:
 
Reno gets the week off to a good start. Gotdamn, my thread was buried in the middle of page 2. Good shit, lots of people chiming in here.

Added Penn State -13.5 medium game 342. Matches up with two other guys I respect.

Added Michigan State +13 small to medium.

GL; i'll try to post second half plays when i get time

:shake:

I'm on Sparty like a hobo on a ham sandwich!!!
 
no time to answer questions today boys, i'm in the weeds

BYU ML for me agianst Texas. Move to the Horns but i'm not buying it. Hill should have a field day against a depleted Tejas defense, and the Horn "O" should struggle to score against a stingy Mormon D as well.
 
added fresno state +13.5 small to medium; I made this game way lower. Might be stone wrong, but when it's this far off from my line i have to go; seeing it twitch and it might go down a bit.
 
2H Michigan State +9 -105 big. What game are they watching? Sparty mauling them in the trenches and this guy is a good 2H adjuster; this might end up being a 3-touchdown MSU win.
 
in the future, don't sweat the line movement in my thread. I told you earlier what I liked. Nothing that happened today or could happen in the last 90 minutes is going to change my mind. Billy could be on my side or against; I don't care. I make my own numbers and trust that in the long run they will win. This is not an endorsement on a one-shot deal. If i had to bet one game today, it would be Wyoming and it is a hefty bet for me, but i have enough bankroll and manage my money properly enough that I can withstand any losses that could come of an unexpected Air Force win. GL to us....
 
added fresno state +13.5 small to medium; I made this game way lower. Might be stone wrong, but when it's this far off from my line i have to go; seeing it twitch and it might go down a bit.

Wow my man, surprised you took this sucker line..

Not like you..
 
could never have been more wrong about 2H Oregon. I really had the Mich State coaches on a pedestal in which they did not belong. The Oregon guy, who i thought would lose his job after another 9-3 year, coached circles around them.

Lesson learned.

Gyno - what is sucker about a line where the bet count at 3 different places i looked at was 4-to-1 against me on average? I just took a price because the suckers were AGAINST me, not with me. Got it wrong, happens.
 
i had 2H Mich State by the way, i guess i never posted. Was the only game i've ever seen where they were down 12 with a 4th and short early in 4th and i said this is play of game, could lose by 25 or win outright, one play decides it, hahaha
 
oops, i see now, i did post Mich St. So buried with work that i forgot.

I also liked Mishitgan 2H some but never got the price i wanted. Shows how lost I've been. Go Wyoming! Whole day hinges on that now
 
It takes a real jackass to make a comment like this after the fact. Not a good look bro .

Wtf is wrong with the people on this forum?

If I make a bad play I admit it... I made a horrible bet and a total sucker play on wash st Tt over..

My post was a compliment if anything..
 
Glad you got the late WYO win.

I was liking it all week but at PK laid off.

Sparty wore down, had a feeling that would happen with the tempo and heat.

Still will easily win B10 though...
 
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