Rexy's Week 15 College...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
103 Central Florida +7 medium to big 2.5u.

Get it now, gonna crash. Will have reasoning for this one later, as well as several other juicy plays...

GL this week!

:shake:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
103 Central Florida +7 medium to big 2.5u.

Get it now, gonna crash. Will have reasoning for this one later, as well as several other juicy plays...

GL this week!

:shake:
Click to expand...

looking forward to your thoughts on these champ games....(scratches his head)
 
To me it seems like more bets are coming in on UCF yet the line keeps moving in the opposite direction...
 
OK fellas, let's get tonight's game out of the way. First, Element, I looked at two different stores a bit ago. At this point, UCF is still getting an average of 56 percent of the bets, but there is a smidge more $ for ECU, telling me that someone sharp is on the favorite. That said, since the line went back to 6.5 flat earlier, more bets have come on the favorite. So who knows.

I made this game 3. ECU is 1-6 in their last seven ATS and have been overvalued since their dismantling (for the second straight year) of Norkerlina. The Pirates obviously boast record-breaking QB Carden and WR Hardy, but they'll be hard-pressed to come up with big numbers tonight against a UCF secondary that leads the nation in pass efficiency on defense, yielding just 12 touchdowns to its 16 interceptions. The Knights yield less than 17 ppg and that's fourth-best in America, albeit against a pedestrian slate of foes. On the other side of the ball, QB Holman has been solid if not spectacular since his 4-pick head-scratcher at UConn back at the start of last month. He's 51-for-78 with six touchdowns in his last three and should be able to swap points throughout with Carden and the Pirates' O. O'Leary is 3-0 in these roles (sub-DD digit dog) since the start of last year. Really a no-brainer take on this one. Would recommend +6.5 for a bit less, maybe 1.5 to 2u somewhere.

Back in a bit for observations on later games this weekend.
 
tell you what, i'm too busy (more than i thought i would be) to writeup anything else right now. I've got nothing on Friday (made NI 6.5 and Oreg 14.5).

Looking at Houston if i can get +7.5 at Cincy but nothing for now; might take 7 small.

Looking at Okie Light for sure at +21 but will see if that one's topped out yet (big edge for Okie Light with that true frosh at QB although he's a bit green considering he never played before last week. Either of Okie's guys, Knight or Thomas, are inferior to Rudolph). OSU stinks but it's Bedlam and this is always gonna be too many points.

Have LT +11.5 and Mizzou +14.5 both medium; will write up when I get time. Nothing in the rest... GL...
 
Is your Mizzou bet based on an inflated line? Trying to get a feel on that game and my gut tells me it's too many points, but it looked like AU was going to win and easily cover for a large part of the game last week too. If Alabama gets it going on you on both sides, it's hard to keep it close
 
Mizzou bet is because the line is too high, correct. I figured it in the 10 ish range, maybe as high as 11. Was going to pass all the way til I saw 13 and higher. I will talk about it again tomorrow when i get a bit more time. But the price is just too high here, even with the refs a sure thing to cheat Mizzou to get an SEC team into the playoffs. I am just not impressed with Alabama, particularly their defense.
 
Do I dare ask what you made FSU? I think GT might be the worst matchup for them as GT will continue to pound the rock if that is working (which I think it will). Just not sure of what to make GT's defense. sometimes they look really good and sometimes they shit the bed. I'm tempted to wait to see if FSU falls down early by a score or two to grab them live.
 
good plays on both LT and Misery and I'm right there with you on Okie Lite. Let's hope they can slow down Perine at least a little.
 
good start to the week.

I made Florida State -5.5 and would consider a small lay if it gets any cheaper. I think they're to the point where it's impossible to shave at this point, even in the 1H. The other team is good enough to beat them...

The Noles keep getting dumped down in the rankings, and if I were Jimbo and my team really were trying to win every week, as opposed to win and not cover, I would say that this would be good bulletin board material. If he hasn't at least been spending a little bit of time in practice prepping for this offense since the day after Duke lost to UNC, then he's not doing it right. Motivation and respect factor should be there. Can't remember the last time the Noles have been this short in a non-road ACC game. Reeks of a lack of respect, and lots of people will be betting GT because they "want" the villainous Noles to lose. It's a lay or nothing for me, and if they seem to be able to slow down the other team, then it's a live or 2H play again.
 
100 percent Johnny. FSU has depth for days at RB (at least two others who i'm comfortable with after Williams), while Smelter is one of the top defensive players in the ACC.
 
And GT top WR out as well... Think FSU puts full 4qtrs and remember FSU d coordinator was gatech d coordinator 2yrs ago when these teams last played and has a lot of knowledge on ga tech schemes.. So FSU D should be well prepared
 
CollegeKingRex said:
100 percent Johnny. FSU has depth for days at RB (at least two others who i'm comfortable with after Williams), while Smelter is one of the top defensive players in the ACC.
Click to expand...

Smelter plays wide receiver

You been watching Cole Stoudt too much...starting to think WRs are DBs. They do have to cross train with Stoudt at QB though
 
bg down from 6.5 to 5 on my book in the last couple hours. they setting up or taking a stand?
 
I don't know Mizz well enough to call the sec championship game but the Alabama defense IS good. Where they suck is the deep ball. Too much press coverage and 2 of the 3 corners do not play the ball well in the air. I think I told everyone I know 3 times that auburn would burn them deep over and over. But that's what auburn does best. I'd like to know what Mizz does well on offense but I just haven't seen them enough. I doubt they will have much success on the ground.

I want to say the line is too high but this is a home game for alabama and they just covered 10 at home vs a rival that I would think is a better team.

Just a couple thoughts that don't mean much. More talking to myself about the game because I really know dick about mizzou..

I really can't see bama not winning this game though. When they cover, they do so because teams get tired of tackling beasts running over them in the 4th.

How is Mizz dbs? How the hell are they going to cover cooper and stop the run?

Good luck Rex. Hope you've had a great season and it keeps rolling.
 
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1) Everyone knows (at least i thought everyone knew) that Auburn's offense is run based, run first, run everything. The run game is their offense. Going deep is not what they do best.
2) This is not a home game for alabama. Its in atlanta. Speaking from experience (as i was in atlanta last year when au beat mizzou), mizzou fans will be there in full force. It might be pro-bama, but not a home game by any stretch.

Coming from an alabama fan, I would say this surprises me that you dont know this sort of thing, but then I'd be lying. Yet another uninformed bammer.
 
ram1502 said:
1) Everyone knows (at least i thought everyone knew) that Auburn's offense is run based, run first, run everything. The run game is their offense. Going deep is not what they do best.
2) This is not a home game for alabama. Its in atlanta. Speaking from experience (as i was in atlanta last year when au beat mizzou), mizzou fans will be there in full force. It might be pro-bama, but not a home game by any stretch.

Coming from an alabama fan, I would say this surprises me that you dont know this sort of thing, but then I'd be lying. Yet another uninformed bammer.
Click to expand...

You come off as the homer attacking me like that.

I obviously know auburn runs well. Duh. Marshall throws one of the best deep balls in college football and they have maybe the best tandem Wrs for the deep ball in college. It's how they score.

Hope Missouri gets shut down tomorrow.
 
i meant to say top receivers, just goes to show how fuckin tired i am. Picked a bad week to go on the wagon. Not sleeping well, fighting the college basketball movers every morning, and tomorrow have to focus on both football and UFC fights. I'll try to write some shit up in the morning when i'm a bit fresher.
 
ksimpsc said:
bg down from 6.5 to 5 on my book in the last couple hours. they setting up or taking a stand?
Click to expand...

Sharp side was BG, there was no stand-taking. everyone and their mom bet BG.

I was gunshy to lay NIU. I had them big last year and got it right up my ass in a game that was never competitive.

This Pac 12 game ranks right up there with the worst I've ever seen. If I didn't know better I'd sayOregon is playing Savannah State.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
i meant to say top receivers, just goes to show how fuckin tired i am. Picked a bad week to go on the wagon. Not sleeping well, fighting the college basketball movers every morning, and tomorrow have to focus on both football and UFC fights. I'll try to write some shit up in the morning when i'm a bit fresher.
Click to expand...

Do you post MMA?
 
This is the SAME Pac 12 that I've been seeing since September. It's overrated and if you take a good look at Oregons Oline, and Dline, you think you're watching D2 athletes.mthese guys are small and will get mauled vs physical lines like Bama or FSU.
Arizona is in the Pac 12 Title game and they didn't even beat the 2 better teams in the south, USC or UCLA.
 
wiseplayer said:
This is the SAME Pac 12 that I've been seeing since September. It's overrated and if you take a good look at Oregons Oline, and Dline, you think you're watching D2 athletes.mthese guys are small and will get mauled vs physical lines like Bama or FSU.
Arizona is in the Pac 12 Title game and they didn't even beat the 2 better teams in the south, USC or UCLA.
Click to expand...

So true......prolly 4 loss team in SEC....can't see how you don't unload in the semi-finals fading this team......
 
It's insane zona came into the final week of the season ranked 7th when they might be the 8th best team in the PAC. The committee embarrassed themselves with that one.


they luckboxed their way into the south title but they're closer to Cal than they are to Oregon.
 
They put them at 7 to make sure they had had a PAC team to put out there in the rose bowl...but yes embarassing
 
Looks like I'm just fucked. What did they do? Must not be rape accusation because we know that doesn't rise to suspension.
 
144 Illy State -1.5 small to med 1.5u

147 Liberty +10 medium 2u

both are in for the I-AA games.

I want to take 10 with 137 Fordham as well. No play as of yet. Taurus, Timbo, anyone else I-AA experts, tru, etc? Thoughts?
 
CollegeKingRex said:
144 Illy State -1.5 small to med 1.5u

147 Liberty +10 medium 2u

both are in for the I-AA games.

I want to take 10 with 137 Fordham as well. No play as of yet. Taurus, Timbo, anyone else I-AA experts, tru, etc? Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I can't argue 10 with Fordham as I had it in the 6 range. Also like Liberty +10. Illy State is no play for me as I think that number is right on. Also have Montana +9.5 made it 6.
 
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Marshall OVER 67 medium 2u.

Fuck you billy. Get a life. These two teams scored 66 and 76 last week. Take your winnings from Oregon UN and go count them. Don't try to make these two monsters stay under...
 
suspensions weren't that big of a deal, i guess.beats me.


2H We Are Marshall -6 medium 2u

-2 turnovers and they've been a good second half team in the past when trailing. Of course, i bet on Rice last week 2H and LT rammed it up my ass
 
not sure if posted locked in or not but do have Okie State +21 medium 2u. Go now if you've not, it seems billy is on my side there
 
a couple of folks wanted my take on Ohio State game.

Warning: Conspiracy Theory coming...

friend asked:
why is whiskydicks so cheap with backup qb in for bucks

My skypie response:
refs will cheat
want Ohio State in playoffs
committee has 2 former Big 10 coaches on it
Nebraska guy who was in Congress
and Wiskydicks guy who is their AD now
makes it an easy rig


told other guy down here, who is aware of the dynamic (not sure if his comments are factual but they make sense to me, lmao)...
so, the wisky ad, who is on the cfs committee, secretly wants ohio state to win, becuz he knows his team has no shot at the final 4, and wisky's of the conference's one entry into the final 4 means way more $ to his school and, eventually him via bonus,
make sense... no need to go to your head coach to tell him to tank, to to the refs



me:
that's how i see it
the 6 percent in me that is a conspiracy theorist
i don't believe in many
but i see them all
 
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