Rexy's Week 14 CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
The MAC title game is tonight, and the line finally got far enough out of whack that I'm forced to take it.

Thanks to Br@ssknux for this writeup, which I am stealing completely and in its entirety from him.

The play: Northern Illinois +14 flat med to big 2.5u. *** At current level of 13.5 flat at most places or 14 dog 15, it would be only 2u, all the day down to 13 flat it would be good for...

GL!

:shake:



'1. Northern Illinois +13 v Bowling Green: This line is all the way up to 13 because NIU will be on their 4th string QB, a true freshman, after their 3rd stringer Ryan Graham got hurt last week.I guess there's a chance he can still play, but they are probably just going to go with the healthy body. This is obviously concern, especially against a team with an offense like BG, but this is a line that is completely out of whack for a team with Northern's history. This will be their 6th consecutive MAC title game, and in that stretch (since 2010) NIU is 47-6 against MAC competition. They've been an underdog a grand total of 4 times, and won all 4 outright. They've never been even close to this big of a dog, and I'm sure all these players have noticed the spread and are taking it personally. Defensively, the Huskies have been strong this year, ranking 25th in total yards per play, 38th against the run and 24th in passer rating against, all tops in the MAC. They've also got a big edge in special teams, and their ATS history away from DeKalb is outstanding, going 19-5 ATS since 2012. This is just too many points to not take for a program as proud as Northern's. They will definitely show up and give a great performance. It's a must take in my opinion.'


 
GL Rex - Question for you on FCS Playoffs. Why haven't 5D lines shown up on DB when they have been out during the week? Also, I see Jazz has posted FCS on DB board and others to follow. Will those lines be released with standard -10 vig?
 
Thanks Taurus, yes sir let's hope he's spot on. I'm with him.

You see anything you like in the I-AA playoffs? The market just opened for me at Jazz, but the limits are laughable so I won't bother for now. Judging by those numbers, it looks like I might have plays on Colgate, Jacksonville State, North Dakota State and Portland State. Let me know if you agree or disagree with any of those at your leisure.

:shake:
 
Thanks timbo, maybe we can both win there since you only laid 11. It got to where 13 woke me up and i said if this goes up anymore I have to bet NIU on principle.

Jazz copies the 5dimes line. They can put to the screen whenever they open or want to.

5dimes (and a lot of books that have ASI or similar-type software) have the ability to "hide" the line from Don Best. This was happen often with the Cascade/Del Mar guys. Terry and Larry would be moving Lenny's lines, which once people found out (after Del Mar went off the screen) in about 2003, the Cascade line was right there with Pinnacle with one that was respected most by the sharps. Guys like QT or Baxter would call the stage directly when going out on a game and would call them first because they knew Terry or Larry would give those guys a big bet and also move the game inside only (meaning the line on the website or for the clerks to read to the callers would be different than what showed up on the screen). He'd give 3-5 mins or so most of the time, but if it started to pop on the screen before that, he'd move it on the screen also soas not to look like they were hiding the line.

My guess is 5dimes isn't showing on the screen yet because it's a 40-cent line and limits are still low. When they raise them and lower the juice, the lines will probably hit the screen and move normally.
 
Thanks Rex, very interesting. I like the Jacksonville State play quite a bit. They outgained them 2-1 in earlier game and Jacksonville State defense is really solid only allowing 4.3 ypp and 2.8 ypr.
 
I had Montana in the season opener which was a great game and now that their QB is back i might have the wrong number for them, but ND State is slowly getting better with the new QB, and playing in that dome it could get real ugly real early in this revenge spot.

Colgate got no respect last week at Slimes either and won outright catching double-digits. I guess the computers must not think much of them. Wrong favorite in Portland.
 
Slimes lol...and that is a lot of points for them to be catching in lieu of their big win last week. I like NDST play as well, along with Richmond and Char Southern. NIowa had the brutal schedule in the middle of the season facing the gauntlet of good teams in their league all in a row and losing some tough games but have played really well since then. Portland State throws the ball really well but I wonder about their strength of schedule? They do have an amazing +16 TO ratio. I don't see them being able to run on NI though and that could make it tough on them.
 
Had a feeling a few of these would get bet the way I wanted them to.


320 Western Kentucky, wanted to lay 7 or better. Won't lay more. But the first half play that worked out well last week is in play. First half Western -4.5 med to big 2.5

Back with more shortly. Time issues with the screen lightingup like a christmas tree
 
waited that out all morning, had to go as Walters is out taking out the rest of the 4 now. If you can find it, GO... Bet from 4.5 to 5.5 would be smaller, up to 2 units only. No play at 6 or higher
 
would only have Western OV in that top total but who knows, they stayed UN in 2H last week and USM will be a stiffer test.

Iowa at 4.5 you are stealing, line is painted 3.5, value that or nothing.

Southern Cal number good on dog there, would only bet +5.5, hell I am considering taking 4.

Florida +17.5 you slaughtering number but i made Bama higher

Ga St unbeaten on road catching points this year ATS but other team murdered them last year. Sun Belt games I made all around the line all of them. Would only have OVER in that game as well. GL


I-AA plays so far:

Colgate +20 med 2u
Jacksonville State -9 small 1u
North Dakota State -12.5 med 2u
Portland State +7 med 2u
 
CollegeKingRex said:
would only have Western OV in that top total but who knows, they stayed UN in 2H last week and USM will be a stiffer test.

Iowa at 4.5 you are stealing, line is painted 3.5, value that or nothing.

Southern Cal number good on dog there, would only bet +5.5, hell I am considering taking 4.

Florida +17.5 you slaughtering number but i made Bama higher

Ga St unbeaten on road catching points this year ATS but other team murdered them last year. Sun Belt games I made all around the line all of them. Would only have OVER in that game as well. GL


I-AA plays so far:

Colgate +20 med 2u
Jacksonville State -9 small 1u
North Dakota State -12.5 med 2u
Portland State +7 med 2u
Click to expand...


Thank you!

So, if I have Temple +7 or better, I would think I am looking good?

GL to you too.
 
Go figure that Southern Miss won the toss and took the ball; was not expecting that. Still, Western was wrong side. Can win game and maybe even cover, but I wouldn't lay more than 3 and will expect 2H to come 3.5 or even 4.

I did bet Houston PICK -115 at open for 2u in the 2H there, as I don't see Temple keeping up. That line is long gone and it's tough to justifying laying points with a 2-touchdown lead, so pass.
 
2H Alabama -9 -105 medium.

If Florida covers for the game I will be very surprised. Whoever opened up 7.5 should be fired, should have opened 10.5 or even 11.5. Sure there is sharp Florida, and their defense is great. But did anyone bother to see three defensive starters go down in the first half, and I think two of them are out for the rest of the game. Bryan Cox is not replaceable. This is a wear down jobber, the same of which i get so fucking sick of seeing week in and week out from Alabama. It's nauseating.
 
2H U-La-La -3 med 2u

Interesting stat. Troy State QB has thrown 17 of his 19 TD passes this year in the first half. Troy State tends to go the wrong way after the break; the other team is still playing hard and looks like they'll try to rally. Worth a shot laying a field goal, and will receive the kick
 
I am on 323 Southern Cal +4.5 med 2u.

Made the game 1. I realize earlier in year that Stanford handled them by 10. The difference now is that USC has changed its offense to something a bit slower paced, with more ball control. It earned this guy a full time head coaching gig. The USC QB is a real good one - he won't get them beat here. The Trojans played two overmatched foes at the Coliseum before running into the Stanford machine early. Things have slowed down for their young kids now. It's an easy take, and I think Southern Cal wins outright.
 
Be prepared for a live play on SD STate at some point. 3 was the price-point there. No Maxwell Smith (he might not have helped UK but he wouldn't have hurt them as much as the other two stiffs did)... and I don't know whether the backup is capable of managing the game. Rocky Long has defended the option better than any coach in history west of the Mississippi going back to the 90s and his UNM days. Several covers in a row vs. AFA and can't see how Air Force gonna stop SD State ground game after getting gashed in recent weeks. Looks like the Flyboys might be running out of gas.
 
North Carolina game 329 +6.5 -105 small to med 1.5u

I knew i was going to be on this side after the matchup was set last week. A few things temper my enthusiasm here on the Heels, despite me making the game much lower. One, the Clempson fans will be roughly 3/4ths of the crowd. Lots of orange in there. Second, UNC's statistical domination over the course of the last 11 games has also been aided by playing two I-AA teams. So I'm going to reluctantly keep the bet down to just 1.5u.
 
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