Rexy's Week 10 CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Back to a little more manageable schedule this week. Last weekend was the Breeders' Cup, and it was the first time that all five major US professional team sports were in action on the same day (Sunday).

Plays now, writeups coming shortly.

326 Purdue +4.5 big. Would take 4 also med to big. This is a 3u play.
335 U-La-La -2 med 2u.
360 Northwestern -1 small 1u.
364 Tulane +6.5 med 2u.
383 Texas Christian -5 med 2u.
407 We Are Marshall +3 -115 small 1u. Moneyline +130 small 1u. Total 2u play.
419 Idaho +10 med 2u.
422 Nebraska +6 med to big 2.5u

GL this week to all!

:shake:
 
Purdue

All praises go to Bill Cubit, who stepped into an impossible situation after the head coach was fired with due cause by the university the day before the Illini were to open the season (two days, after a thunderstorm delayed the game to Saturday from Friday night) by thrashing Kent State. As the season has progressed, however, Illinois hasn't. They were blanked 39-0 in Happy Valley last week, with the running game hitting the skids since top RB Ferguson went down. Lunt threw for 332 and two touchdowns against the Boilers last season, but it still wasn't enough, as the 10-point underdog Boilermakers made the short trek to Champaign and handed Illinois a 38-27 loss for their only Big 10 win last season. They gained 551 yards in that one, so there was nothing flukish about it. The win against Nebraska last week was aided by +5 turnovers, but the Cornhuskers ran for just 77 yards in that one. Doesn't bode good for an Illini squad that's rushed for an average of 46 yards per game in its last three. Purdue finally found its QB of the future, as Blough is gonna be a good one. Purdue has beaten Illinois in eight of the last 10; the trend continues. Boilers by double digits.
 
U-La-La

Not sure how this line is so low. U-La-La came back to rally and beat rival Monrow last week (21-0 after the half) and should be a confident bunch heading into the Jorja Dome, where the Panthers hardly enjoy any sort of homefield edge. They've lost eight straight there, and included in the victim list are the two worst teams in I-A football and a I-AA team (New Mexico State, UNC-Charlotte and Liberty). This streak won't end anytime soon.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Purdue

All praises go to Bill Cubit, who stepped into an impossible situation after the head coach was fired with due cause by the university the day before the Illini were to open the season (two days, after a thunderstorm delayed the game to Saturday from Friday night) by thrashing Kent State. As the season has progressed, however, Illinois hasn't. They were blanked 39-0 in Happy Valley last week, with the running game hitting the skids since top RB Ferguson went down. Lunt threw for 332 and two touchdowns against the Boilers last season, but it still wasn't enough, as the 10-point underdog Boilermakers made the short trek to Champaign and handed Illinois a 38-27 loss for their only Big 10 win last season. They gained 551 yards in that one, so there was nothing flukish about it. The win against Nebraska last week was aided by +5 turnovers, but the Cornhuskers ran for just 77 yards in that one. Doesn't bode good for an Illini squad that's rushed for an average of 46 yards per game in its last three. Purdue finally found its QB of the future, as Blough is gonna be a good one. Purdue has beaten Illinois in eight of the last 10; the trend continues. Boilers by double digits.
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I agree its Purdue or nothing at this price but coach said Josh Ferguson is starting this week.
 
Northwestern

The number here is only NW -4 and I've seen a couple of other sets that make Penn State the favorite etc. This tempers the size of the bet for now, but that can change like my mood in the next 17 hours, especially if I play faces and can put anyone else i respect on my side. Wildcats are a big situational play here. They're off a bye here. Counting bowls, they're just 2-11 SU under Fitzgerald with extra rest but remember the season opener was off extra rest as well (that's not counted in the 2-11, obviously) and they played their most prepared game of the season. Penn State has been a great home team this year. Considering they've played one true road game (Ohio State) since the season opener (even that game was at Temple, where a big PSU fanbase helped make it a neutral-ish game at Lincoln Financial Stadium), that's probably a good thing. This is the 10th game in a row without a week off for the Nittany Lions, and it's tough to even figure out their best win. San Diego State? Indiana? I guess it would have to be Maryland, in Baltimore. Even there, Maryland was shorthanded if I recall correctly, and Penn State was never in position to cover the 6. An easy lay at this level, and I might add to it.
 
nflguy said:
I agree its Purdue or nothing at this price but coach said Josh Ferguson is starting this week.
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I see on DB that they upgraded him on Wednesday to PROBABLE. Yet billy's guys didn't bet Illy hand over fist until yesterday at 11:40 am EST. Hmm.
 
Tulane

I had the Wave last week, and with Lee missing his third straight against Memphis State, I was probably a bit fortunate to win it, although I was catching a jillion and they were up outright 10-0 at one point. UConn has been pretty schizo lately, with four takeaways in each of their last two wins; they haven't played to within 11 points either way of the opening number in this four game stretch, with losses to South Florida and Cincinnati in the sammich around wins over UCF and ECU. Last week's results have inflated this price; the Huskies should be laying around 1.5 or 2 tops here. Tulane finally drops in class after facing four teams with a combined record of 29-2 in their last four games! Temple, Houston, Navy and Memphis were the four squads that eviscerated the Green Wave. At 2-6, this is a must-win if the Wave want to go bowling, and they should be favored or a very small dog in the rest of their games, so that carrot is one worth nibbling on. QB Lee is going to be back here, and UConn is 5-19 outright on the road since 2011. Tulane outright.
 
Texas Christian

I'm gonna get this Oklahoma State eventually; I have them rated lower than any of the unbeatens and this seems as good a spot as any, laying less than a touchdown with a TCU bunch that put a beating on West By God Virginia last Thursday. They dominated on both sides of the ball and that really hadn't happened all season (616-327 yard edge); the extra two days of prep won't hurt either. Kudos to Gundy for once again overachieving with a team that's not all that talented but the backloaded schedule is really going to send the Cowboys into bowl season on a downer. Boykin was locked in last year's 42-9 TCU romp at home, going 26-for-39 for 410 yards and three touchdowns. OSU dropped four straight (one cover) after that one last year; don't be surprised if something similar happens after tomorrow. Horned Toads by double digits.
 
Don't know what you see in Nebbie. Team psychie is fragile and a bad bounce or 2 and this is a rout. If Huskers have a chance it has to be a shootout.
 
We Are Marshall

Middle Tennessee State is firmly entrenched in the middle tier of C-USA... they'll have their fun with the Old Dome's of the world but were never competitive with Western Kentucky or Louisiana Tech. Marshall certainly belongs in the same class as the latter group. Freshman QB Litton has rendered the absence of the RB virtually a moot point, and I don't see a way for the Blue Raiders to stop the Herd QB and his passing game. MU put up 49 in each of the last two meetings betweeen these two and I can see them getting near again on Saturday; and I DON'T see Middle getting 50 or more. Wrong team favored.

Also, seeing how low the total is, I added a play. OVER 57 is a medium 2u play here as well.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Tulane

I had the Wave last week, and with Lee missing his third straight against Memphis State, I was probably a bit fortunate to win it, although I was catching a jillion and they were up outright 10-0 at one point. UConn has been pretty schizo lately, with four takeaways in each of their last two wins; they haven't played to within 11 points either way of the opening number in this four game stretch, with losses to South Florida and Cincinnati in the sammich around wins over UCF and ECU. Last week's results have inflated this price; the Huskies should be laying around 1.5 or 2 tops here. Tulane finally drops in class after facing four teams with a combined record of 29-2 in their last four games! Temple, Houston, Navy and Memphis were the four squads that eviscerated the Green Wave. At 2-6, this is a must-win if the Wave want to go bowling, and they should be favored or a very small dog in the rest of their games, so that carrot is one worth nibbling on. QB Lee is going to be back here, and UConn is 5-19 outright on the road since 2011. Tulane outright.
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Homecoming and maybe some weather here

GL I hope they win too
 
thanks all

Idaho.

Smashing RB Penny has 376 yards on the ground in the last two. Ignore the loss in Las Cruces; horrible spot coming off two straight wins in league play with the other team "balls out". Won't have much of a shot in the next two weeks... so bowl chances shot which worries me some... that said, who is South Bama to lay double digits to anyone. Beat a I-AA in the opener, beat Troy State by six five weeks ago; if they played now Troy State would win by two touchdowns or more... and in one of the inexplicable results of the year, won as a 19-point dog in San Diego. What gives them the right to lay this price here when their losses have come by 39, 50, 18 and 18; the last coming against a sad-sack Texas State team that couldn't stop air all season until the 36-18 win on Oct. 24. Maybe the bye will help, but this is a big number for a bad team to lay. To the wire this one should go...
 
Nebraska.

Context: Last season, Mish State was a great team; about 8 points better than this version (interestingly enough, I had Nebraska about six points better than last year's team. Made the game around 13 and it closed 7.5 ish) yet were life-and-death with the Cornshitters in Lansing last fall. They were 0-7 or 1-7 (check both Phil The Thrill Steele pages, he lists both and I'm too lazy to look it up, lmao) vs. Nebraska lifetime before winning last year, despite forcing five turnovers and having to stop Corn twice in the 4Q. Need to win out to get to a bowl, and the talent is there for them to do it; there's no better five OR SIX loss team. Atmosphere should be good in a Lincoln night game, unless cubsker refutes my thoughts... Bowl eligibility hinges on a win here and this will be the toughest assignment. Line only 6 with an unbeaten team vs. a 6-loss one; you think it's an accident? Mish State easily the worst unbeaten out there. Did I say that earlier about Okie State? Whoops - put them in the Shit Bowl against each other as neither is one I am interested in watching after the last weekend of this month...
 
Matty, lmao. All the sharpies begging that 'We Are Marshall' money again. Get in line and good health. I actually made a couple of big adjustments down on them (after the first two) but not enough for me to not keep betting i guess... so go, Turd...
 
ADDING 344 Florida Internacional -17 - medium 2u

Fla Int'l

As many of you know by now I would bet on ISIS if they played UNC-Charlotte. The 49ers take to the road off six straight losses and two home losses by 34 and 24 to meet an angry FIU bunch that no-showed on me last week in the Shula Bowl. At home, the Panthers have won their three decisions by 25, 40 and 29. Any of those margins seem about right today in a game against the worst team in I-A football this century.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
We Are Marshall

Middle Tennessee State is firmly entrenched in the middle tier of C-USA... they'll have their fun with the Old Dome's of the world but were never competitive with Western Kentucky or Louisiana Tech. Marshall certainly belongs in the same class as the latter group. Freshman QB Litton has rendered the absence of the RB virtually a moot point, and I don't see a way for the Blue Raiders to stop the Herd QB and his passing game. MU put up 49 in each of the last two meetings betweeen these two and I can see them getting near again on Saturday; and I DON'T see Middle getting 50 or more. Wrong team favored.

Also, seeing how low the total is, I added a play. OVER 57 is a medium 2u play here as well.
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Hey man, cheap shot:hang:

Agree with the play. Old Dome is going to run this conference in 2 years. :popcorn:
 
SOLID analysis brother. Really like Purdue myself, with you there and with the toads. BOL.

PS. If you have a sec, thoughts on Clemson at the current #. Cheers.
 
I made Clempson 10.5 but would be very hesistant to lay any sort of big number against Florida State. The last time they've lost a regular season game by more than 11 points was in the second game of the Jimbo era (2010).
 
atmosphere will be good to start. could get ugly if neb goes down a couple scores quick though as the majority of the fanbase has already seen enough from Bike Smiley. i personally don't see how neb stops them. i do agree that sparty is prob the worst unbeaten and that neb should be able to score a good amount of pts, but that neb pass defense is just brutal. if mich st is smart, they'll throw 50 times. from what i've seen from them this year, though, they are not smart which is how they only beat purdont by 3 pts and how they let rutgers hang around until the final whistle.
 
2H Western Kentucky -13 medium 2u.

Back with more second half losers this week, just for everyone's entertainment!

I also like Vandy, i must be nuts
 
Auburn QB White OUT tonight... only available in emergency; they're going back to Johnson, who was the starter at the beginning of the season

ADDING 414 Texas A&M -7 small to med 1.5u
 
CollegeKingRex said:
2H Cal OVER 36.5 -110 small to med 1.5u
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im playing too but cautiously cause there been a time or 2 of late where i was on a cal over in great shape but they roll over and die once they down this number and proceed to help run out the clock like they all have dates..
 
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