Rexy's Divisional Round...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Antonio Brown was SORELY missed in the return game. Forget the offensive side. The lack of return game (or the ability to even catch a punt) hurt the steelers tremendously in the field position battle.
ArizonaKid
Pretty much a regular
Allowed a postseason worst 6.7 yards per play and 8 plays of over 20 yards including 3 plays of 40 or greater yards. Not impressed.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
twinkie - You might be right about that. But 18 also wasn't helped by his skill players on offense dropping about a dozen balls that clearly could (if not SHOULD) have been caught. I think the final official stat was 9 drops and i thought i saw something on twitter where no team in the playoffs in at least 10 years had dropped more than six in any one game.
nubafan - Great observation about Brown in that facet. Denver's special teams won the game in my mind. Not only were Pittsburgh's very poor but Denver's were very good in the three most important facets at altitude: (FG, punt, punt return). The offense consistently was given a short field and did very little of substance for most of the game.
A-Kid - Way too many chunk plays and while Brady is great, I would take Pittsburgh's offense over New England's in one minute despite the losses to Bell/Williams and Brown. The receivers are all beasts. Sammie Coates would be the No. 1 for NE and he can't even sniff the field for the Steelers. Ben seemed healthy to me and he played a pretty solid game against the best defense in the league. I don't think Pitt had more than about 2-3 first downs the whole game where they actually got it on a 2nd/3rd and short and converted a 10 yard play or less. Lots and lots of big plays and while that is possible next week, it's not likely. New England just doesn't have the offensive playmakers outside of the tight end for Brady to consistently beat the Denver defense like that.
aplous - More than anything else, the injury to Harris creates doubt in my mind for the Denver case. His ability to go and be near healthy is far more significant to the outcome of this game than any of the hogwash you hear all week about Brady vs Manning. In reality, 18 should have very little say so in how this game plays out. Get people in the right places, create advantages that your skill players can exploit and limit mistakes. Let your superior players make plays. Brady will have a far bigger say in whether they can score enough points and limit mistakes to give NE a chance to win. It will be tough but you can't start throwing around 3 and more to the home team with the superior defense in league championship games.
I'll have a new thread in the next day or two and elaborate on my position here as well as talk about the NFC final as well. Hope everyone has a good week. I've been at it 9 hours and have lots of film to watch tomorrow and wednesday. This is my weekend, and it's cocktail hour...
:shake:
nubafan - Great observation about Brown in that facet. Denver's special teams won the game in my mind. Not only were Pittsburgh's very poor but Denver's were very good in the three most important facets at altitude: (FG, punt, punt return). The offense consistently was given a short field and did very little of substance for most of the game.
A-Kid - Way too many chunk plays and while Brady is great, I would take Pittsburgh's offense over New England's in one minute despite the losses to Bell/Williams and Brown. The receivers are all beasts. Sammie Coates would be the No. 1 for NE and he can't even sniff the field for the Steelers. Ben seemed healthy to me and he played a pretty solid game against the best defense in the league. I don't think Pitt had more than about 2-3 first downs the whole game where they actually got it on a 2nd/3rd and short and converted a 10 yard play or less. Lots and lots of big plays and while that is possible next week, it's not likely. New England just doesn't have the offensive playmakers outside of the tight end for Brady to consistently beat the Denver defense like that.
aplous - More than anything else, the injury to Harris creates doubt in my mind for the Denver case. His ability to go and be near healthy is far more significant to the outcome of this game than any of the hogwash you hear all week about Brady vs Manning. In reality, 18 should have very little say so in how this game plays out. Get people in the right places, create advantages that your skill players can exploit and limit mistakes. Let your superior players make plays. Brady will have a far bigger say in whether they can score enough points and limit mistakes to give NE a chance to win. It will be tough but you can't start throwing around 3 and more to the home team with the superior defense in league championship games.
I'll have a new thread in the next day or two and elaborate on my position here as well as talk about the NFC final as well. Hope everyone has a good week. I've been at it 9 hours and have lots of film to watch tomorrow and wednesday. This is my weekend, and it's cocktail hour...
:shake:
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
one of my locals still holding denver +3.5, you think i should jump on it now or see if I can get 4?
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
Rex. Lov your stuff and always read. This is just a contrarian view as my handicapping skills are not even close to being in the same league as yours. I'm a homer so this could be off. When the Pats D has been healthy they have been very good. I'm not sure if they will be this week as Collins Mayo and Chsndler all went out and did not return. But when Collins Hightower and Chandler play together (Saturday first time since week 8) they are very good. And 18 looked shaky on Sunday. Brady will not be able to stretch the field. He has lost that skill set but the NE offense is more organized than Denvers with a better QB. Denver's D is very good but NE has already carved them up once with half the cast they will have on Sunday. So as I look at this game I can see NE putting up 24-31 points just like they have all year with the offense healthy (who's gonna stop gronk) and I can't see Denver getting to 20 with Manning. He can't throw as well any more and they won't run on the Pats if Pats d healthy. Just my 2cents and no disrespect meant as I admire your body of work.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
we are all here to share information and i value your thoughts. Still can't agree with it.
Primary arguments is that 18 did not look that shaky to me, considering the wind was doing what it was (he looked as good as he has in most any game all season which isn't saying much but he for sure he more healthy than he was at this time last year). His receivers let him down the most.
The offense being more organized I don't see, either. If they get to 24 points I'll be relatively surprised for sure considering I like UNDER pretty good and Denver outright. If they pull that off, I'm guaranteed to go no better than 1-1. If Harris is playing then I don't see NE carving them up Sunday for sure; the weather is still up in the air. I would also be a bit surprised if Denver can't get to 20. With the Denver D and ST getting involved, 18 won't have to do a ton of heavy lifting and I think that 23 or 24 is attainable. Gun to head with all I know now i would think 23-16 or so with Brady being routinely frustrated once NE moves the ball some and gets held to field goals.
Primary arguments is that 18 did not look that shaky to me, considering the wind was doing what it was (he looked as good as he has in most any game all season which isn't saying much but he for sure he more healthy than he was at this time last year). His receivers let him down the most.
The offense being more organized I don't see, either. If they get to 24 points I'll be relatively surprised for sure considering I like UNDER pretty good and Denver outright. If they pull that off, I'm guaranteed to go no better than 1-1. If Harris is playing then I don't see NE carving them up Sunday for sure; the weather is still up in the air. I would also be a bit surprised if Denver can't get to 20. With the Denver D and ST getting involved, 18 won't have to do a ton of heavy lifting and I think that 23 or 24 is attainable. Gun to head with all I know now i would think 23-16 or so with Brady being routinely frustrated once NE moves the ball some and gets held to field goals.
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
My biggest concern is Denver's d line getting to Brady,if they do then the Pats will have a difficult if not impossible task. Wade is not afraid to bring the house which is worrysome.The o line of the Pats was atrocious late season but actually played pretty well against the Chiefs last week,surprisingly. Not sure they can repeat that against this front d line of Denver's. If they can then we have a decent shot. Denver has the superior d and I'm cognizant. Brady 2-6 in Mile high and 0-2 in the playoffs. One of those 2 playoff losses the Broncos had the better team. I can't remember the one before that. Pats offense before Edelman went down averaged 33 ppg and in 7 of their 14 wins the d allowed 17 or less points. It was a d that was improving weekly until the injuries set in. Collins and Chandler healthy imperative imo. Solid point about the wind in Denver Sunday, wind games have historically given Peyton trouble and he actually did look pretty good considering the conditions,and reasonably nimble. So I amend "shaky" to pretty good. Not sure where I am at in this game wager wise,not nearly as confident in the Brady bunch this week. Manning will be prepared,as will Brady. Belichick will be prepared, not so sure about Kubiak but Wade will have his boys ready as will Patricia. Not sure who has the edge on special teams,probably a coin flip.Amendola good return guy and we have a good punter and kicker so if Brady>Manning cancels out the homefield and Belichick>Kubiak cancels out the defense of Denver (not sure if it does) then this game is starting to look more like a pickem. Looking forward to your writeup.
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