RESEARCH/ANALYSIS/PICKS for Week 5 NCAA Football




hile75

CTG's ambassador of sexy
my first thread in NCAAF on CTG, lets try not to do terribly here, at least for the first week.

1) Rutgers -4.......I'm absolutely sold on the fact that this team deserves to be ranked. I watched this team play twice this year, vs North Carolina and vs Illinois and they literally dominated both of those games from beginning to end (although Carolina scored late to make it a closer game then what it was) Rutgers can run the ball as well as almost any team in the country IMO. Ray Rice might be the best RB in the country that NOONE has talked about, leading a team that averages 203.8 YPG. Throw in the fact that USF QB's have thrown 6 TD and 6 INTS in there 4 games, and I think this is a rather easy pick.

Being ranked should stoke this team enough to overcome being on the road.



2) Texas A & M -2.............Simple writeup for this game, TAM won this game 2 years ago when it was played at Kyle Field , arguably one of the TOUGHEST placest to play a college football game. I KNOW what TAM will produce at home, I'm betting this side based on what I've seen from Tex Tech this year, this team was humiliated by TCU on the road. The turf runners will be out of there element for this game at College Station. Throw in Stephen McGee's 167.4 passer rating and 6/0 TD to INT ratio, and this will be a tough O for Tex Tech to stop.

Texam A&M allows ONLY 127.5 yards per game passing this year, and Tx Tech cant run (less then 100 per game average)



3) Ohio St -6.5........Sooner or later people will realize that Iowa is OVERRATED. So far this year they blew away Montana (who cares), struggled to beat Iowa St at HOME, and had to fight for survival against Syracuse on the road ( i thought syracuse actually played better that game). Tresse, I dont believe, will let this team come out slow like they did against Penn State, I see him scoring early and lettign the D handle what will end up being a majority passing attack late in that game.

Ohio St is 10-0 ATS in there last 10 games, Iowa hasnt covered a game yet this year.


4) UAB/Troy UNDER 41...........From what I've been reading, UAB is suffering from a lot of random injuries, the Miss St game really took a lot out of them. I think I would love this pick more if i knew more about Troy, but I did see them play a tough game with Florida St. Both teams QB's are careless with the ball, Haugabook especially. I really see a 10-14 game here, with lots of running and lots of time moving.

UAB is 4-0 on the UNDER this season so far and the last 2 times these teams have played, totals were 34 and 29.




5) Boise St/Utah OVER 51.5.......Both these teams have scored a slew of points against weak opponents, now we'll have to see how they do against one another. I unfortunately havent gotten to watch any of Utah this year, but i LOVE watching Boise, and after seeing that Hawaii game I'm pretty positive that this will end up somewhere around the same score.

The OVER is 12-3 in Utah's last 15 overall



Thats the rundown for this weekend fellas. wish all of you the best of luck and of course commesnts are always encouraged

money;
 
You do realize tate was out against the cuse and iowa st is a rivalry game that they normally lose. But G Luck and welcome to the site
 
Don't be so quick to jump on the aggies. I'm an aggie and I know that pass defense stat is misleading. Just look at who we played. We really have a terrible secondary, but you are right, it's really hard to play at Kyle Field. In my opinion its a play on tech or a no play. Either way I do hope the aggies win and you cash your bet.
 
Hile, I'll likely be playing Rutgers with you before the week is out. Good luck, dude!
beer.gif
 
abcs, i do recognize this, but my personal opinion is that Tate is really no better then Morelli from PSU, just more experience, so thats more or lesss where I value this bet from, my lack of respect for the Iowa O, WITH Tate, but gl man

pat, your right, the aggies havent really played any stellar opposition, maybe something i should have looked at alittle bit harder when evaluating this game, i guess I'm really putting my value on the 12th man making things difficult for that Tx Tech O.

Sooner, sounds good, gl man
 
ahitspat said:
Don't be so quick to jump on the aggies. I'm an aggie and I know that pass defense stat is misleading. Just look at who we played. We really have a terrible secondary, but you are right, it's really hard to play at Kyle Field. In my opinion its a play on tech or a no play. Either way I do hope the aggies win and you cash your bet.

Agreed. I fondly remember the days of the Wrecking Crew, but it was apparent vs army that the aggie d is still the same slow, porous bunch it has been for the last 3 years or so. I'm tempted to take the tech team total OVER, even though I hate to route against my alma mater :down:
 
Well i'll be there trying my ass off as the 12th man to rake in some cash for you. I just can't bet on the aggies myself!! good luck.:cheers:
 
hile75 said:
abcs, i do recognize this, but my personal opinion is that Tate is really no better then Morelli from PSU, just more experience, so thats more or lesss where I value this bet from, my lack of respect for the Iowa O, WITH Tate, but gl man

pat, your right, the aggies havent really played any stellar opposition, maybe something i should have looked at alittle bit harder when evaluating this game, i guess I'm really putting my value on the 12th man making things difficult for that Tx Tech O.

Sooner, sounds good, gl man
Tate's def. better than Morelli. Morelli blows. Tate is at least average.
 
great stuff, Hile.
with you on Ohio St. think Iowa is jsut way overmatched.
i'm also on Boise plus the pts...but will definitely take another look at that over. having watched ucla beat up utah, i can definitely see lotsa points.

BOL this weekend.
 
BAR - i really need to thank you guys for finding me and helping me escape covers.com, this site is awesome so glad to be here.

yanks, Ohio St might be better at EVERY position on the field, a rare thing these days, but I seriously have a huge lack of respect for iowa, and i'm also considering boise getting the points, something i might see how i do early before i jump on it
 
Good Luck with Rutgers tonight Hile. I agree that Iowa is overrated. They're always going to be a solid team, but they can't win the big games, nor do they do very well covering large spreads.
 
I love that Under of the UAB/Troy game, I was looking at this game after I won my ML play on Miss State last weekend because I like Troy and didnt see a good angle but I think this is a very very solid bet. I think I may make this a few unit play. GL
 
ahitspat said:
Don't be so quick to jump on the aggies. I'm an aggie and I know that pass defense stat is misleading. Just look at who we played. We really have a terrible secondary, but you are right, it's really hard to play at Kyle Field. In my opinion its a play on tech or a no play. Either way I do hope the aggies win and you cash your bet.

Tech fan here - I agree this should probably be a no play. I've got a small bet on Tech +3 (bought the hook) for entertainment value, but that's it. From a Tech standpoint, we came into the season thinking we'd have a team that would compete for the Big XII. So far, we've looked like absolute crap! Getting Hicks back at WR is a big plus but I think this game will tell us a lot about both teams.

I fully expect Tech to right the ship at some point, I just don't know if this is the game. There will be no sneaking up on TAMU here, they are ready, the fans are ready and Kyle Field will be rockin'! I can't wait!
 
I agree with you about TT. I was at first all over this game when the season began but both teams have been up and down its hard to pick a side. Home field and Fran playing for his coaching job is huge here.

Fran will feel the heat if he doesn't beat TT. I'll be cheering for Aggie because I want Fran to stay there and not have Butch Davis come aboard.

Also welcome to the site. Loved reading your stuff at covers.
 
badger - damn those scarlet knights last night, not the start i would have liked.....

maxwell... ive watched miss st twice this year, i seen them play s. carolina and uab last week, theyre D is very good, and I dont think I would have liked this as much if Troy wasn;t embarassed last week vs Nebraska, the D tightens up for this week

raider and shsu - honestly i dont think i can spit out facts here to really solidify my side of thisgame, i think this is just my gut telling me that A&M wins here, TCU's D was exposed by BYU, something tech could not do, so even if A&M has slow DB's like were saying, i still say they use a dime D all game, cause Tech doesnt even try and show they can run, not even averaging 100 a game.
 
***ADDING***

Northwestern +20....Kafka or no kafka, N'Western will find a way to score a few points today, and PSU im pretty sure is tired and emotionally drained going into this one, afterthe battle they gave OSU for 3 quarters last week and michigan coming up
 
***ADDING***

Alabama +16..........this team crushed florida last year, although the game was in alabama, i wasnt sold on this game when it opened at 13, but with it gettign over 2 TD's it becomes much more attractive to me, I have faith that if Tennessee was able to move against this team, that John Wilson will be able to keep this game close
 
***Adding***

Akron - they win this by an FG, the win on the road at NC State was no fluke, they played well with psu as well, kent is bad, dont let them beating bowling green fool you, akron wins this by 14
 
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