Read BEFORE Wagering, 06/18/13, Baltimore at Detroit

[Son_of_A_Legend]

For 06/18/13
Baltimore at Detroit

Here is how Justin Verlander does verses the Orioles' starting line-up:
1. CF, Nate McLouth, 2 for 9, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 SB, .222 AVE, .300 AVE
2. 3B, Manny Machado, 1 for 6, 1 BB, 2 SO, .167 AVE, .286 OBP
3. LF, Nick Markakis, 10 for 41, 4 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 10 SO, .244 AVE, .279 OBP
4. CF, Adam Jones, 2 for 24, 1 BB, 8 SO, 1 SB, .083 AVE, .120 OBP
5. 1B, Chris Davis, 3 for 14, 1 RBI, 2 BB,, 8 SO, .214 AVE, .313 OBP
6. C, Matt Wieters, 3 for 17, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 SO, .176 AVE, .222 OBP
7. SS, J.J. Hardy, 6 for 28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 6 SO, .214 AVE, .464 OBP
8. DH, Travis Ishikawa, No information available and/or 1st time meeting
9. 2B, Ryan Flaherty, 0 for 4, 1 SO, .000 AVE, .000 OBP


Here is how Zach Britton does verses the Tigers' starting line-up:
1. CF, Austin Jackson, 2 for 5, 1 2B, .400 AVE, .400 OBP
2. RF, Torii Hunter, 0 for 2, 1 BB, 1 SO, .000 AVE, .333 OBP
3. 3B, Miguel Cabrera, 2 for 3, 3 BB, .667 AVE, .833 OBP
4. 1B, Prince Fielder, 0 for 1, 2 BB, 1 SO, .000 AVE, .667 OBP
5. DH, Victor Martinez, 0 for 3, .000 AVE, .000 OBP
6. SS, Jhonny Peralta, 0 for 5, 2 SO, .000 AVE, .000 OBP
7. LF, Matt Tuiasosopo, No information available and/or 1st time meeting
8. 2B, Omar Infante, 1 for 3, 1 SO, .333 AVE, .333 OBP
9. C, Brayan Pena, 1 for 3, .333 AVE, .333 OBP

Weather Information
Partly cloudy.
Temperature is 73°F (22°C) at 44% humidity.
Wind from the North and gentle at 9 mph (14 km/h) which is AWAY from home plate.

 

[DaRaiders]

What have you extrapolated from this info?

 

[cogenman]

Looks like JV owns these set of Orioles they are putting on the field tonight.

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

What have you extrapolated from this info?

7 of the 9 starters have at least one hit against JV while only three Tiger starters have a hit (and no HR's) against ZB.
As such knowing this board loves their Detroit teams, I put the information out there so people might think twice before making their wager.
Just because JV was the starter and the Tigers are at home, does not mean to blindly take the home team.

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

Looks like JV owns these set of Orioles they are putting on the field tonight.

JV does have many SO against that starting nine but 7 of them have gotten at least one hit off him.
That should send up a red flag. Four or five, okay. Six, now you're pushing it. Each starter has thier own cut-off number.

 

[Lareux]

7 of the 9 starters have at least one hit against JV while only three Tiger starters have a hit (and no HR's) against ZB.
As such knowing this board loves their Detroit teams, I put the information out there so people might think twice before making their wager.
Just because JV was the starter and the Tigers are at home, does not mean to blindly take the home team.

Having at least one hit doesn't really mean much of anything though. Their stats, as a whole, against JV are pretty pedestrian (to say the least). The highest average for the lineup is .244 against JV, and 5 of the 9 are hitting under .200.

Of course, blindly betting the home team in this (or any) spot is a bad idea, I'm just not sure that the stats you provided give any reason to bet the Orioles.

:shake:

 

[Lareux]

JV does have many SO against that starting nine but 7 of them have gotten at least one hit off him.
That should send up a red flag. Four or five, okay. Six, now you're pushing it. Each starter has thier own cut-off number.

Why would having one hit throw up red flags? JV doesn't throw no hitters every single game, or anywhere near that, so most guys in the league will have at least one hit off of him. I'm not sure I'm following you as to why anyone should be concerned because 7 of the 9 guys have at least one hit off of JV. Look at the numbers as a whole, and those 9 guys don't hit JV very well at all.

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

Having at least one hit doesn't really mean much of anything though. Their stats, as a whole, against JV are pretty pedestrian (to say the least). The highest average for the lineup is .244 against JV, and 5 of the 9 are hitting under .200.

Of course, blindly betting the home team in this (or any) spot is a bad idea, I'm just not sure that the stats you provided give any reason to bet the Orioles.

:shake:

One-third of the O's have what I call 'power hits' against JV.
A power hit is a double, triple or home run.
Add in SB and BB and it reduces all his SO.
I know that might seem weird, but it's something I've found to be effect.

I could also have provided a data list of why Detroit should win tonight but when I saw how ZB matches up thought this set had more credence.

I know each person handicaps the game in a way they works for them and I'm okay with that. We're all here to try and make a few bucks and then get paid.

:cheers:

 

[Schrute]

Barring a tremendous fuckup you're going to get paid

Good capping

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

Why would having one hit throw up red flags? JV doesn't throw no hitters every single game, or anywhere near that, so most guys in the league will have at least one hit off of him. I'm not sure I'm following you as to why anyone should be concerned because 7 of the 9 guys have at least one hit off of JV. Look at the numbers as a whole, and those 9 guys don't hit JV very well at all.

Those seven are all in row - three straight hits and a run scores, another hit another or two more runs; it's very dangerous. This is just a part of what I look at in trying to determine if this game is worth putting something on. :shake:

 

[twinkie13]

son of a legend

we like thoughts here

please continue

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

Barring a tremendous fuckup you're going to get paid

Good capping

Thank you but the game isn't over.
I can and will not count for here as I did not clearly state I was on the O's.

 

[Play2win]

son of a legend

we like thoughts here

please continue

THIS!

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

son of a legend

we like thoughts here

please continue

Good to know twinkie13.

So many other boards just list a team and what their action is.
If one "dares" ask them, "why" they get lit-up by the sheep.

While what I posted might not help a person tonight, it might spark an idea for a person which might lead to them making some money.

While knowledge is power, sharing it provides the giver good karma.

FYI, that's one of the ways I look at each and every MLB game (SP v B match-up) and it's a real pain sometimes when line-ups aren't know until a hour before gametime.

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

THIS!

I will gladly share what I can.
More eyes equals more ways to look at a game.

What track is in your avatar?

 

[Play2win]

home court...Saratoga

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

home court...Saratoga

Thank you and guessing you go there when able.
Haven't been there yet but I got time.

 

[bloodhound]

nice job son

continued success :shake:

 

[P-Unit]

keep up the good work. As Twinkie and P2W said, independent thoughts are a great addition to this forum.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

:shake:

 

[KowboyKarl]

I'll be watching this system closely.

Although I liked the play on the Orioles, I was speculative based on the actual reasoning. It worked out and you cashed. Congrats!

Looking forward to more of your thoughts/analysis. ty/gl

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Good lookin out.

 

[Play2win]

Thank you and guessing you go there when able.
Haven't been there yet but I got time.

when i was a kid went every day, now make at least 2/3rds of meet. Best track...not in the country, best in the world.