Raw data question

[pressitup]

I've been looking back at why teams won/lost .
This is generic data that can be found anywhere, but I put it in a visually easy format for me.
I don't strip the playoff games out.
This is the Chicago Bears 2018 season.
There are absolutes we all pretty much know, the winner covers the spread most of the time, you rush the ball and stop the rush you win...
I use this to then decide how far I wish to deep dive.
If this might be beneficial, I'll post it.

​	​	​	​	​
Wins​	ATS​	​	Losses​	ATS​
​	​	​	​	​
12​	11-1​	​	5​	1-4​
​	​	​	​	​
Rushes​	opp​	​	Rushes​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
29.4​	19.5​	​	26.6​	25.6​
​	​	​	​	​
Rush yds​	opp​	​	Rush yds​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
115​	66.7​	​	124​	104.2​
​	​	​	​	​
Passes​	opp​	​	Passes​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
29.7​	38.5​	​	39.8​	38.6​
​	​	​	​	​
Pass yds​	opp​	​	Pass yds​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
210.8​	197.1​	​	265.2​	281.8​
​	​	​	​	​
TO ​	opp​	​	TO​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
1.2​	2.2​	​	1.8​	2.2​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
Preseason​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
2-3​	​	​	​	​

 

[austinhous]

raw is best. reminds me of ncaa.org data table. looks like bears planned to possess the ball/lean on the run. and then had to pass more to make up for turnovers in the losses.

 

[pressitup]

raw is best. reminds me of ncaa.org data table. looks like bears planned to possess the ball/lean on the run. and then had to pass more to make up for turnovers in the losses.

Their losses , except for NE, was to teams in the lower half of rushing offenses. A lot about this league is mind boggling. Nothing said the Cardinals should have won a game, much less three.

 

[pressitup]

Pick the winner, win 82% of the time.

season = 2018 and W
SU: 265-0-0 (11.05, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 209-45-11 (8.28, 82.3%) avg line: -2.8 +6: 256-7-2 (97.3%) -6: 144-112-9 (56.2%) +10: 263-2-0 (99.2%) -10: 90-170-5 (34.6%) O/U: 120-139-6 (-0.18, 46.3%) avg total: 46.7 +6: 81-180-4 (31.0%) -6: 175-84-6 (67.6%) +10: 51-209-5 (19.6%) -10: 210-50-5 (80.8%)

 

[pressitup]

Here are the raw number RSW. No schedule or player move examination.

KC 10-6
Lambs 10-6
Bucs 7-9
Pitt 9-7
NE 10-6
Atl 8-8
Ind 10-6
Saints 10-6
Balt 10-6
Car 8-8
LAC 10-6
Pack 7-9
Browns 7-9
Iggles 8-8
Texans 10-6...........pfffft
9ers 6-10
Gints 7-9
C-Hawks 10-6
Broncs 8-8
Vikes 8-8
Bears 11-5
Cows 8-8
Raiduhs 5-11
Lions 7-9
Titans 8-8
Bengals 7-9
Jags 6-10
Foreskins 6-10
Jets 6-10
Bills 5-11
Phins 6-10
Cards 4-12

Just wanted to post it to see how far off.

 

[Fondybadger]

Is it bad that every time I see this thread listed in new posts I think the title is "raw dogging"

 

[RetroVK]

Unless the Bills trade for John Elway, they arent making the playoffs

 

[pressitup]

Is it bad that every time I see this thread listed in new posts I think the title is "raw dogging"

Delete it then.
I've got my info elsewhere.

 

[pressitup]

Unless the Bills trade for John Elway, they arent making the playoffs

And Juice in a white Bronco

 

[RetroVK]

And Juice in a white Bronco

I'm just saying

 

[pressitup]

In going through some of this, I'm currently looking at situations where the a non-division game is sandwiched between divisional games(came about from the Giants victory over the Bears).

Home Dogs playing a NDIV game between divisional games:
(2018)

SU:	6-3-0 (-1.78, 66.7%)
ATS:	7-2-0 (2.72, 77.8%)

(Last 5 yrs)

SU:	17-16-0 (-2.06, 51.5%)
ATS:	21-12-0 (2.41, 63.6%)

Home Faves playing NDIV game between divisional games:
(2018)

SU:	12-4-0 (4.56, 75.0%)
ATS:	6-10-0 (-0.69, 37.5%)

(Last 5 yrs)

SU:	51-19-0 (5.81, 72.9%)
ATS:	31-37-2 (0.39, 45.6%)

New York basically outrushed the Bears, but I found this interesting.
Lifetime record of this sandwich isn't the greatest SU, but ATS was a slight winner.
Something to look at.
There are 14 such situations in 2019.

 

[jedi ninja]

I've been looking back at why teams won/lost .
This is generic data that can be found anywhere, but I put it in a visually easy format for me.
I don't strip the playoff games out.
This is the Chicago Bears 2018 season.
There are absolutes we all pretty much know, the winner covers the spread most of the time, you rush the ball and stop the rush you win...
I use this to then decide how far I wish to deep dive.
If this might be beneficial, I'll post it.

​	​	​	​	​
Wins​	ATS​	​	Losses​	ATS​
​	​	​	​	​
12​	11-1​	​	5​	1-4​
​	​	​	​	​
Rushes​	opp​	​	Rushes​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
29.4​	19.5​	​	26.6​	25.6​
​	​	​	​	​
Rush yds​	opp​	​	Rush yds​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
115​	66.7​	​	124​	104.2​
​	​	​	​	​
Passes​	opp​	​	Passes​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
29.7​	38.5​	​	39.8​	38.6​
​	​	​	​	​
Pass yds​	opp​	​	Pass yds​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
210.8​	197.1​	​	265.2​	281.8​
​	​	​	​	​
TO ​	opp​	​	TO​	opp​
​	​	​	​	​
1.2​	2.2​	​	1.8​	2.2​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
Preseason​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
2-3​	​	​	​	​

Good stufff. The Bears are one of the teams that Football Outsiders see as regressing this year, mainly because they were extremely fortunate with turnovers (they had 36 takeaways, 5 more than 2nd place) and that isn’t something that can necessarily be replicated year after year. Turnovers are one of those “lucky” stats that can make a team look better/worse than they actually are.

 

[pressitup]

Good stufff. The Bears are one of the teams that Football Outsiders see as regressing this year, mainly because they were extremely fortunate with turnovers (they had 36 takeaways, 5 more than 2nd place) and that isn’t something that can necessarily be replicated year after year. Turnovers are one of those “lucky” stats that can make a team look better/worse than they actually are.

They had six fumbles in that NYG game, losing one. I bet it stopped some drives none the less. Judging by the box score, looks like more occurred in the 2nd half. That's where the Giants pulled away before giving back.
The Giants came out of the bye winning twice, losing a div game then besting the Bears. THey obviously had mo coming out of the bye. What a sorry team to lose to tho.

 

[pressitup]

The Bears have lost the game after the bye for 5 straight years.

 

[cubsker]

raw is best.

indeed

 

[Alan Tongue]

In going through some of this, I'm currently looking at situations where the a non-division game is sandwiched between divisional games(came about from the Giants victory over the Bears).

Home Dogs playing a NDIV game between divisional games:
(2018)

SU:	6-3-0 (-1.78, 66.7%)
ATS:	7-2-0 (2.72, 77.8%)

(Last 5 yrs)

SU:	17-16-0 (-2.06, 51.5%)
ATS:	21-12-0 (2.41, 63.6%)

Home Faves playing NDIV game between divisional games:
(2018)

SU:	12-4-0 (4.56, 75.0%)
ATS:	6-10-0 (-0.69, 37.5%)

(Last 5 yrs)

SU:	51-19-0 (5.81, 72.9%)
ATS:	31-37-2 (0.39, 45.6%)

New York basically outrushed the Bears, but I found this interesting.
Lifetime record of this sandwich isn't the greatest SU, but ATS was a slight winner.
Something to look at.
There are 14 such situations in 2019.

I normally post a colour codedgrid that highlights these sort of games. I'll try and find it and post it

 

[B.A.R.]

I normally post a colour codedgrid that highlights these sort of games. I'll try and find it and post it

I love that grid.