Ranking Divisional Round Defenses
1. L.A. Chargers
The Chargers have an elite secondary. PFF grades Desmond King as the best slot cornerback, Derwin James as second-team safety, and, last year, Casey Hayward won top coverage defender. James was also elected to the Pro Bowl. They earned these accolades despite having to play the Chiefs twice, the Steelers, and the Rams. L.A.’s secondary is helped by a solid pass rush that ranks 10th in sack rate. That statistic is deflated because defensive end Joey Bosa was not really healthy until November 25. Despite only being fit for six games, Bosa finished the regular season with 5.5 sacks. Bosa’s counterpart Melvin Ingram has seven sacks and he achieved two last week against Baltimore. L.A.’s run defense is also one of the better ones. It ranks 11th in opposing YPC.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots have also cultivated an impressive track record against elite pass attacks. Andrew Luck mustered an 84.4 passer rating against the Patriots, although his season average is 98.7. Likewise, Ben Roethlisberger’s passer rating was 79.9 against New England, although his season average is 96.5. In that game, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster failed to eclipse 50 yards. The leader of New England’s secondary is cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s impossible to burn Gilmore. Not a single receiver has gained more than five yards of downfield separation against him. It’s generally a bad idea to throw in Gilmore’s direction. He ranks eighth in yards per target allowed and 16th in pass break-ups even though he defends a high frequency of routes. Gilmore is a big reason why the Pats rank seventh in opposing average passer rating. I put the Pats behind L.A. because they rank 29th in opposing YPC.
With Tom Brady and Philip Rivers facing tough secondaries, I recommend taking the „under“ at 45.5. Also look for some kind of Keenan Allen „under“ yards prop, available at various sportsbooks.
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3. New Orleans Saints
Towards the end of October, the Saints made a big move in acquiring cornerback Eli Apple. He’s one of the PFF highest-ranked cornerbacks. While he improves their secondary, the best aspect of New Orleans’ defense is its run defense, the biggest reason for which is its defensive line. The Saints’ d-line ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate. Against the run, it ranks third in short yardage situations and sixth in stuffing the opposing running back at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, it ranks second in opposing running back yards. Defensive end Cam Jordan earned his Pro Bowl selection with 12 sacks, seven stuffs, and a forced fumble. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who had 12 tackles for loss and 15 quarterback hits, was snubbed. They limited Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot to one of their worst performances on the season. The key reason for New Orleans’ high selection may actually be opposing scoring. Six of its last eight opponents scored fewer than 20 points. The two exceptions were Pittsburgh and Carolina in a meaningless Week 17 game.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas, like New Orleans, boasts a defensive line that is solid against the run. Led by Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence, it ranks sixth in opposing running back yards and stuffs opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage with the fifth-highest frequency. However, Dallas’ pass defense is inconsistent. On the one hand, Drew Brees had one of his worst games on the season in Dallas—although all of his clunkers that he laid this season have come away from home. On the other hand, after that super bowl-like victory against New Orleans, Dallas allowed Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz to have his second-best passing performance of his season.
5. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis’ overall defensive numbers are misleading because it took time to gel under first-year defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. Since their bye week, the Colts held four opponents to 10 points or fewer, including Houston in the Wild Card round. I’m only ranking Indy fifth because its second-half schedule was really soft, including the likes of Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Miami, all of which rank bottom seven in points per game. In its playoff opener, it got to face a quarterback making his first ever playoff start. The Colts did also shut down Dak Prescott, but one has to wonder if Dallas was very focused after basically clinching the NFC East in an overtime thriller against Philadelphia the week before. Indy’s rush defense is legit, though, led by All-Pro rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and a veteran-laden defensive line that helps Indy rank sixth in opposing YPC.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ defense has suffered an unfair amount of injuries. It hasn’t really showed against fringe NFL talent like Mitch Trubisky. But later in the season, Dak Prescott threw for over 450 yards and three touchdowns versus Philly. Deshaun Watson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia. Besides two poor performances against Dallas, a blowout against the Saints, and a desperate success against a Rams team in a funk, the Eagles haven’t gotten another chance after its bye week to prove itself against a strong offense.
7. L.A. Rams
The Rams’ overall defensive numbers benefitted by playing lower-ranked or even abysmal offenses to conclude the regular season like Arizona, San Francisco, Detroit, and Chicago. Still, they allowed 30+ points on six different occasions including twice against Seattle, then it allowed 45 against the Saints, and 51 against the Chiefs. They consistently allow big plays with one of the worst rankings against offensive explosiveness.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a solid pass rush and that’s it. They rank 31st in opposing yards per game and 27th in opposing rushing yards per game. Safety Eric Berry has dealt with injuries throughout the year and he’s been an important loss.
1. L.A. Chargers
The Chargers have an elite secondary. PFF grades Desmond King as the best slot cornerback, Derwin James as second-team safety, and, last year, Casey Hayward won top coverage defender. James was also elected to the Pro Bowl. They earned these accolades despite having to play the Chiefs twice, the Steelers, and the Rams. L.A.’s secondary is helped by a solid pass rush that ranks 10th in sack rate. That statistic is deflated because defensive end Joey Bosa was not really healthy until November 25. Despite only being fit for six games, Bosa finished the regular season with 5.5 sacks. Bosa’s counterpart Melvin Ingram has seven sacks and he achieved two last week against Baltimore. L.A.’s run defense is also one of the better ones. It ranks 11th in opposing YPC.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots have also cultivated an impressive track record against elite pass attacks. Andrew Luck mustered an 84.4 passer rating against the Patriots, although his season average is 98.7. Likewise, Ben Roethlisberger’s passer rating was 79.9 against New England, although his season average is 96.5. In that game, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster failed to eclipse 50 yards. The leader of New England’s secondary is cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s impossible to burn Gilmore. Not a single receiver has gained more than five yards of downfield separation against him. It’s generally a bad idea to throw in Gilmore’s direction. He ranks eighth in yards per target allowed and 16th in pass break-ups even though he defends a high frequency of routes. Gilmore is a big reason why the Pats rank seventh in opposing average passer rating. I put the Pats behind L.A. because they rank 29th in opposing YPC.
With Tom Brady and Philip Rivers facing tough secondaries, I recommend taking the „under“ at 45.5. Also look for some kind of Keenan Allen „under“ yards prop, available at various sportsbooks.
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3. New Orleans Saints
Towards the end of October, the Saints made a big move in acquiring cornerback Eli Apple. He’s one of the PFF highest-ranked cornerbacks. While he improves their secondary, the best aspect of New Orleans’ defense is its run defense, the biggest reason for which is its defensive line. The Saints’ d-line ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate. Against the run, it ranks third in short yardage situations and sixth in stuffing the opposing running back at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, it ranks second in opposing running back yards. Defensive end Cam Jordan earned his Pro Bowl selection with 12 sacks, seven stuffs, and a forced fumble. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who had 12 tackles for loss and 15 quarterback hits, was snubbed. They limited Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot to one of their worst performances on the season. The key reason for New Orleans’ high selection may actually be opposing scoring. Six of its last eight opponents scored fewer than 20 points. The two exceptions were Pittsburgh and Carolina in a meaningless Week 17 game.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas, like New Orleans, boasts a defensive line that is solid against the run. Led by Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence, it ranks sixth in opposing running back yards and stuffs opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage with the fifth-highest frequency. However, Dallas’ pass defense is inconsistent. On the one hand, Drew Brees had one of his worst games on the season in Dallas—although all of his clunkers that he laid this season have come away from home. On the other hand, after that super bowl-like victory against New Orleans, Dallas allowed Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz to have his second-best passing performance of his season.
5. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis’ overall defensive numbers are misleading because it took time to gel under first-year defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. Since their bye week, the Colts held four opponents to 10 points or fewer, including Houston in the Wild Card round. I’m only ranking Indy fifth because its second-half schedule was really soft, including the likes of Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Miami, all of which rank bottom seven in points per game. In its playoff opener, it got to face a quarterback making his first ever playoff start. The Colts did also shut down Dak Prescott, but one has to wonder if Dallas was very focused after basically clinching the NFC East in an overtime thriller against Philadelphia the week before. Indy’s rush defense is legit, though, led by All-Pro rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and a veteran-laden defensive line that helps Indy rank sixth in opposing YPC.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ defense has suffered an unfair amount of injuries. It hasn’t really showed against fringe NFL talent like Mitch Trubisky. But later in the season, Dak Prescott threw for over 450 yards and three touchdowns versus Philly. Deshaun Watson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia. Besides two poor performances against Dallas, a blowout against the Saints, and a desperate success against a Rams team in a funk, the Eagles haven’t gotten another chance after its bye week to prove itself against a strong offense.
7. L.A. Rams
The Rams’ overall defensive numbers benefitted by playing lower-ranked or even abysmal offenses to conclude the regular season like Arizona, San Francisco, Detroit, and Chicago. Still, they allowed 30+ points on six different occasions including twice against Seattle, then it allowed 45 against the Saints, and 51 against the Chiefs. They consistently allow big plays with one of the worst rankings against offensive explosiveness.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a solid pass rush and that’s it. They rank 31st in opposing yards per game and 27th in opposing rushing yards per game. Safety Eric Berry has dealt with injuries throughout the year and he’s been an important loss.
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