Saturday Football: Best Bets for the Wildcard Round
Best Bets for Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is the first playoff game of the season and the first of two rematches on Saturday. On November 30, the Rams were ten-point favorites in Carolina and lost by three points. The Panthers benefited from a pick-six and the Rams from a 35-yard touchdown drive and two touchdown receptions from a player – Davante Adams – who is coming off a pesky hamstring injury – hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky. This particular matchup interests me because of the details, relevant to its strategy for the rematch, that Carolina’s defensive coordinator learned on November 30 and because of altered variables that reshape the outlook for both teams.
Expect this rematch to proceed differently because of the defenders that will play that did not participate much or at all in the first game. These defenders include: Poona Ford, the defensive tackle whom the Rams acquired in order to stabilize its run defense, Quentin Lake, the Rams safety without whom L.A.’s defense ranked toward the very bottom, Jaycee Horn, Carolina’s Pro Bowl selection at cornerback, and three of Carolina’s other defensive starters. Their participation in this rematch helps justify my NFL betting picks, beginning with my total play.
Saturday Picks (Under 46.5 at -112 with BetOnline)
Carolina’s defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero, has a special edge in this matchup. In the year in which the Rams, led by their current head coach and starting quarterback, won the Super Bowl, he was their secondary coach and passing game coordinator. This knowledge helps explain why, against his defense, Matthew Stafford suffered the third-worst game of his season, as measured by passer rating. Evero knows not to blitz Stafford. When he didn’t, Stafford was 11-for-19 for 100 yards and threw both of his interceptions. As a consequence of his knowledge of the Rams’ offense, Evero had his defenders positioned well, forcing Stafford to be impossibly perfect with his accuracy. This knowledge helps explain why the Panthers defense was able to make Stafford struggle even while so many starters were missing. They will only be stronger both in coverage and against the run with those starters back. Moreover, they accumulated only four pressures out of 30 pass plays in the first meeting. With the Rams ranking 25th in pass-blocking per PFF, this is something that Carolina’s defense can easily improve upon.
As for Carolina’s quarterback, over half of Bryce Young’s 206 passing yards came via three completions. He generally struggled to move the ball against the Rams even though he didn’t have to deal with Quentin Lake’s coverage skills. Young is one of the statistically least inclined quarterbacks to attempt deep passes, so one can’t expect big plays from him. Both quarterbacks, therefore, are going to struggle in this game. The Panthers relied heavily on their rush attack in the first meeting, but with Poona Ford healthy and taking pressure off of his teammates on the defensive line who underperformed, they are going to have to rely more on Young in the rematch, which they won’t be able to do.
Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford over ½ Interceptions Thrown at +120 with Bovada
Despite attempting only 28 passes and despite the absence of Jaycee Horn, who is second in the NFL with five interceptions, Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions against Carolina. Carolina is one of the best teams at achieving interceptions only partly because of Horn. The Panthers’ defense is characteristically opportunistic. Former Pro Bowl selection at defensive tackle Derrick Brown might bat a pass in the air. A cornerback might jump a route. There are various ways for the Panthers to get interceptions. Stafford, in particular, tends to trust and lock onto his wide receivers, making him easier for defensive backs to read. With so many Panthers players in coverage, it will be harder for him to hit his preferred target. When the Panthers intercept him, expect it to come from his determination to force a pass or, at the very least, his human vulnerability to attempting a pass inaccurately against a defense that knows how to force him to be impossibly perfect.
Best Bets for Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is the first playoff game of the season and the first of two rematches on Saturday. On November 30, the Rams were ten-point favorites in Carolina and lost by three points. The Panthers benefited from a pick-six and the Rams from a 35-yard touchdown drive and two touchdown receptions from a player – Davante Adams – who is coming off a pesky hamstring injury – hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky. This particular matchup interests me because of the details, relevant to its strategy for the rematch, that Carolina’s defensive coordinator learned on November 30 and because of altered variables that reshape the outlook for both teams.
Expect this rematch to proceed differently because of the defenders that will play that did not participate much or at all in the first game. These defenders include: Poona Ford, the defensive tackle whom the Rams acquired in order to stabilize its run defense, Quentin Lake, the Rams safety without whom L.A.’s defense ranked toward the very bottom, Jaycee Horn, Carolina’s Pro Bowl selection at cornerback, and three of Carolina’s other defensive starters. Their participation in this rematch helps justify my NFL betting picks, beginning with my total play.
Saturday Picks (Under 46.5 at -112 with BetOnline)
Carolina’s defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero, has a special edge in this matchup. In the year in which the Rams, led by their current head coach and starting quarterback, won the Super Bowl, he was their secondary coach and passing game coordinator. This knowledge helps explain why, against his defense, Matthew Stafford suffered the third-worst game of his season, as measured by passer rating. Evero knows not to blitz Stafford. When he didn’t, Stafford was 11-for-19 for 100 yards and threw both of his interceptions. As a consequence of his knowledge of the Rams’ offense, Evero had his defenders positioned well, forcing Stafford to be impossibly perfect with his accuracy. This knowledge helps explain why the Panthers defense was able to make Stafford struggle even while so many starters were missing. They will only be stronger both in coverage and against the run with those starters back. Moreover, they accumulated only four pressures out of 30 pass plays in the first meeting. With the Rams ranking 25th in pass-blocking per PFF, this is something that Carolina’s defense can easily improve upon.
As for Carolina’s quarterback, over half of Bryce Young’s 206 passing yards came via three completions. He generally struggled to move the ball against the Rams even though he didn’t have to deal with Quentin Lake’s coverage skills. Young is one of the statistically least inclined quarterbacks to attempt deep passes, so one can’t expect big plays from him. Both quarterbacks, therefore, are going to struggle in this game. The Panthers relied heavily on their rush attack in the first meeting, but with Poona Ford healthy and taking pressure off of his teammates on the defensive line who underperformed, they are going to have to rely more on Young in the rematch, which they won’t be able to do.
Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford over ½ Interceptions Thrown at +120 with Bovada
Despite attempting only 28 passes and despite the absence of Jaycee Horn, who is second in the NFL with five interceptions, Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions against Carolina. Carolina is one of the best teams at achieving interceptions only partly because of Horn. The Panthers’ defense is characteristically opportunistic. Former Pro Bowl selection at defensive tackle Derrick Brown might bat a pass in the air. A cornerback might jump a route. There are various ways for the Panthers to get interceptions. Stafford, in particular, tends to trust and lock onto his wide receivers, making him easier for defensive backs to read. With so many Panthers players in coverage, it will be harder for him to hit his preferred target. When the Panthers intercept him, expect it to come from his determination to force a pass or, at the very least, his human vulnerability to attempting a pass inaccurately against a defense that knows how to force him to be impossibly perfect.