Rak's NCAAF Week 7

BigRaktor

BigRaktor

Mr. Incredible?
F the last two weeks...time to buckle down...shortening up the number of picks...volume isn't working for me right now...But then again??

1 unit plays
SoCar -6.5 -110 - Damnit!
WakeForest +6 -110
FSU TT U25.5 -115
AirForce +130
Hawaii -17 -110
SDSt +7.5 2nd H -105
UDub +7 1st H -120

2 unit plays
Navy/Pitt U54.5 -110
Illinois -4 -110
Kansas -27 -105 - Pissed I didn't take this at 23.5 when I had the chance.
UDub +12 -115 - Nice 2nd H
Col/KSU O25.5 2nd H
3 unit plays
Oregon -18 -110

4 unit plays
Navy O14.5 2nd H
BC -14 -105

 10 unit play
Navy/Pitt O30 2nd H

ML Dog ($10)
Navy +175
WakeForest +220
Purdue +200
Minny +235 - How the fuck did they shit the bed on this one??
LVille +400
Wisky +250
Mizzu +400
MidTennySt +165

Parlay/Teasers
$10/$120 SoCar-1, LVille/Cincy O60.5, SDSt+20, Hou-17, BC-8, Mia/Cle O39, Tenn+9, NYG/Alt O38

Will add more as I see them

BOL everyone :cheers:

Hell yeah!!! So far this week

Sides 9-7 +$278.75 +11.15 units
ML Dogs 4-4 +$56.00 +2.24 units
Teaser 0-1 -$10.00 -0.40 units
 
Last edited:
Card and leans look pretty solid. I am staying away from South Carolina this week as the line movement has had me scratching my head. Last time that happened i bet on LSU -6.5 and i was all angry that i didn't use my self skepticism that i normally employ.

I am the other way on teh USF lean, i think UCF has the talent and coaching to keep it closer. Although, if UCF carries their debacle from last weekend over to this weekend you could end up covering by the first quarter.

GL this weekend.
 
Adding

Oregon -18 -110 3 units

I'm just not sure how the Cougs are going to hang in this one. They played well at home against ASU last week, but Wazzu is dead LAST in Opp 3rd down conversions. The way I see this, if you can't get a stop, you arent' going to be competitive vs a high power offense like Oregon. Oregon also has to be looking for some major revenge this year after getting beat last year in the Palouse.

BOL everyone :cheers:
 
Added

Navy ML +175 $10
Navy/Pitt U54.5 -110 2 units

:cheers:

Put my thoughts for this game in SpanishShark's thread...BOL everyone
 
Officially in serious chase mode

Added
Navy/Pitt O30 2nd H 10 units
Navy TT O14.5 2nd H 4 units

:cheers:
 
Last night's matchup was going to go to one of two extremes. I capped it wrong, but was able to make the adjustment and get back some serious units. Hope anyone on the under made a 2nd H play on the O!!

:cheers:

BTW...thanks again Fondy
 
Added

WakeForest +6 -110 1 unit
WakeForest +220 ML Dog Play

I like this side for a couple of reasons...first off, HD on Thursday night. It seems that every time I discount the home dog I get F'ed in the end. Tonight I'm going to change sides and bark with the best of them! Secondly, this match-up reminds me a bit of last night's game (Pitt blows on 3rd down, but so did Navy D). FSU converts 3rd downs at a horrible rate (29.33% overall, 13.33% on the road). 13.33% on the road!!! You're telling me that you want to put your money on a team that is 4 of 30 in 3rd down conversions while on the road...4 of 30!!! Those two games are @Clemson(38th) and @Colorado (19th). Wake is 22nd (overall) in Opponent 3rd down conversions at 31.25% and 16th when filtered to @Home at 26.53%.

This alone makes me find love for the home doggie. BOL whatever side you take.

:cheers:
 
Shark...I know...I hated to see you on the opposite side tonight. I just can't support FSU on the road against a decent Wake D. This game has to mean more to Wake than FSU. FSU isn't going to win the Atlantic division...all they can do is spoil things for everyone else. Wake NEEDS to win to give themselves a chance. If BC stumbles at all w/ 4 road games in their last 6 (say lose 1 or 2 - Clemson/FSU??) then Wake will have a shot at the division with a win tonight...otherwise...on to next year.

BOL to you :cheers:

Added

FSU TT U25.5 -115 1 unit
 
I understand where you're coming from. Its just that this game has such emotional ties to Bowden that no matter what he's told the media, he has had this game circled in his calendar all year and I guarantee you he is prepared for it. It should be interesting to say the least. Good Luck buddy :cheers:
 
Mags...fo sho!!

Hutch...WSU is dead last in 3rd down conversions...56% Love the Ducks to quack the shit out of my Cougs!!

:cheers:
 
WakeForest +6 -110
FSU TT U25.5 -115
WakeForest +220

Another solid night

Sides 2-0 +$50.00 +2.00 units
ML Dogs 1-0 +$22.00 +0.88 units

Hope everyone had a good night! :cheers:
 
Added

Parlay/Teasers
$10/$120 SoCar-1, LVille/Cincy O60.5, SDSt+20, Hou-17, BC-8, Mia/Cle O39, Tenn+9, NYG/Alt O38

:cheers:
 
Adding

BC -14 -105 4 units

I don't know why I have let myself just stare at this one this long. ND blows...I agree with everything in that thread on the Domer storming the field article. Plus (my new favorite capping stat) ND converts 24.93% (that is only better than 1 school...Fla Int @ 15.48%) and allows 43.96%. You cannot allow Matt Ryan and BC to convert even 30% if you want to hang in this game Domers. ND is only allowing 35.71% on 3rd down @ home, and BC is only 33.33% on the road. The BC D is the key factor is this game...#3 vs the run...#3 in passes defended...T1 for interceptions w/ 16...#22 in forced fumbles w/ 8...#110 in passing defense, but that is because you CANNOT run against them, so of course they will give up yards...#21 in opponent 3rd down conversion 30.93%.

ND cannot run, and if they do take to the air, the eagles will be waiting.

BOL everyone :cheers:
 
Added

Hawaii -17 -110

Same stat, different game. Getting back Davis will help SJSt immensely in this game, but if you can't get your opponent's offense off the field you will LOSE more often than not. SJSt #109 in opp 3rd down conv @ 46.91% & #95 in passes defended/game @ 3.67 (that means they will deflect or intercept only 3.67 passes/game). Don't let their #19 ranking in passing defense fool you...they have only seen 179 attempts all year. That means that of the 179, 113 were caught, 11 picked, and 11 deflected...this leaves 44 that were either dropped, thrown away, or flat out misses. Divide those numbers by 6 and you get 29.83 att, 18.83 comp, 1.83 int (respectable), 1.83 deflected, and 7.33 drops/whifs. Fast forward to Hawaii stats 48.83 att, 34.16 comp, 1.83 int, 4.33 TD, & 451.0 yards/gm.

Everyone's mind is made up...BOL whatever side you have...I'm on the Warriors tonight!!

:cheers:
 
Good cover for Sparty backers tonight. They played a hell of a game. Big plays seem to always be there in these games. That's what I get for getting off the home doggie!! :cheers:
 
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