Raiders vs Vikings Week 3 NFL Odds & Predictions
Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Odds: Vikings -8.5, O/U 43.5
TV: FOX
Last Sunday, Oakland’s pass defense looked bad. But it’s easy to look bad against Kansas City’s elite pass attack. The Raider secondary upped the general complexity of its coverage schemes. As a result, its lack of overall playing time together showed. Kansas City took advantage of breakdowns in communication, of zone coverage, (which its first opponent, Jacksonville, also played a lot of to its own demise) and of its own superior speed and scheming against man coverage. Still, the Raiders’ secondary can at least say that it grew up a bit together as a unit.
Where Oakland’s defense did look strong is against the run. The Raiders showed speed, stoutness, and reliability in making tackles even one-on-one. On the season, metrics reflect the strength of Oakland’s run defense, which ranks fifth in adjusted line yards, seventh in power rate, and sixth in stuff rate. In order, these metrics indicate Oakland’s high level of success against opposing run blocking units, its effectivity against running backs in short-yardage situations, and its tendency to stop the opposing runner at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Concretely, the Raiders shut down Denver’s Phillip Lindsay and limited Kansas City running backs to fewer than two yards per carry despite the focus that they had to devote to KC’s pass attack.
This strength of Oakland’s defense is crucial against a Minnesota offense that is extremely reliant on Dalvin Cook and its ground game. The Vikings rank first in run-play percentage, but face their toughest test so far on Sunday.
When the Vikings can’t lean on Cook, then their offense is in serious trouble considering how poor quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked. The former Spartan is completing just over 52 percent of his passes, while accruing 328 yards and two touchdowns to two interceptions.
Cousins’ play has been plagued by poor decisions, missed throws, bad reads, and so on. With him struggling, Oakland’s pass defense faces a much easier test and I expect its results to closely resemble the easy success that it found in the season opener against Denver and Joe Flacco.
On the other side of the ball, Oakland features a balanced offensive attack. In particular, former Crimson Tide product Josh Jacobs has impressed as a rookie with his 5.3 YPC. He utilizes his strength and bruising qualities between the tackles while he’s surprisingly elusive and can make defenders miss also as an undervalued weapon in the passing game.
Jacobs and Oakland’s overall ground game will prosper all the more from the return of Pro Bowl left guard Richie Incognito who missed the first two games due to suspension. He’ll join an already vastly improved offensive line that enjoys a healthy Kolton Miller at left tackle, an elite center in Rodney Hudson, and former Patriot behemoth Trent Brown at right tackle.
Minnesota is a salivating opponent for Oakland’s ground attack as the Vikings’ run defense ranks 26th in adjusted line yards, despite a relatively soft schedule in terms of opposing running backs faced, which includes an Atlanta offense that lacks any run game or decent blocking and whose characteristic Week 1 slop-fest offers desperate solace for Viking backers.
As for Oakland’s pass attack, Derek Carr is building off his strong finish last season, currently completing 70 percent of his passes for 457 yards. He prospers from the deep threat posed by Tyrell Williams while he still has a super athletic tight end to throw to in Darren Waller and two pass-catching options out of the backfield in Jacobs and Jalen Richard.
Picks: Raiders +8.5 & Over 43.5
Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Odds: Vikings -8.5, O/U 43.5
TV: FOX
Last Sunday, Oakland’s pass defense looked bad. But it’s easy to look bad against Kansas City’s elite pass attack. The Raider secondary upped the general complexity of its coverage schemes. As a result, its lack of overall playing time together showed. Kansas City took advantage of breakdowns in communication, of zone coverage, (which its first opponent, Jacksonville, also played a lot of to its own demise) and of its own superior speed and scheming against man coverage. Still, the Raiders’ secondary can at least say that it grew up a bit together as a unit.
Where Oakland’s defense did look strong is against the run. The Raiders showed speed, stoutness, and reliability in making tackles even one-on-one. On the season, metrics reflect the strength of Oakland’s run defense, which ranks fifth in adjusted line yards, seventh in power rate, and sixth in stuff rate. In order, these metrics indicate Oakland’s high level of success against opposing run blocking units, its effectivity against running backs in short-yardage situations, and its tendency to stop the opposing runner at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Concretely, the Raiders shut down Denver’s Phillip Lindsay and limited Kansas City running backs to fewer than two yards per carry despite the focus that they had to devote to KC’s pass attack.
This strength of Oakland’s defense is crucial against a Minnesota offense that is extremely reliant on Dalvin Cook and its ground game. The Vikings rank first in run-play percentage, but face their toughest test so far on Sunday.
When the Vikings can’t lean on Cook, then their offense is in serious trouble considering how poor quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked. The former Spartan is completing just over 52 percent of his passes, while accruing 328 yards and two touchdowns to two interceptions.
Cousins’ play has been plagued by poor decisions, missed throws, bad reads, and so on. With him struggling, Oakland’s pass defense faces a much easier test and I expect its results to closely resemble the easy success that it found in the season opener against Denver and Joe Flacco.
On the other side of the ball, Oakland features a balanced offensive attack. In particular, former Crimson Tide product Josh Jacobs has impressed as a rookie with his 5.3 YPC. He utilizes his strength and bruising qualities between the tackles while he’s surprisingly elusive and can make defenders miss also as an undervalued weapon in the passing game.
Jacobs and Oakland’s overall ground game will prosper all the more from the return of Pro Bowl left guard Richie Incognito who missed the first two games due to suspension. He’ll join an already vastly improved offensive line that enjoys a healthy Kolton Miller at left tackle, an elite center in Rodney Hudson, and former Patriot behemoth Trent Brown at right tackle.
Minnesota is a salivating opponent for Oakland’s ground attack as the Vikings’ run defense ranks 26th in adjusted line yards, despite a relatively soft schedule in terms of opposing running backs faced, which includes an Atlanta offense that lacks any run game or decent blocking and whose characteristic Week 1 slop-fest offers desperate solace for Viking backers.
As for Oakland’s pass attack, Derek Carr is building off his strong finish last season, currently completing 70 percent of his passes for 457 yards. He prospers from the deep threat posed by Tyrell Williams while he still has a super athletic tight end to throw to in Darren Waller and two pass-catching options out of the backfield in Jacobs and Jalen Richard.
Picks: Raiders +8.5 & Over 43.5
