Satyr
Paster of Muppets
First of, my approach to betting is far too serious for me to be betting with my heart, I can support a team but betting on them is a different thing. But here I think we have a decent bet at our hands.
I skipped betting on the game in Moscow, where Croatia coped very well with a revamped team and a new coach, and England surely seemed to be on the rise then, but not at the moment. Let me just tell you a few facts, then you'll see why I find 1.55 on 1X (local bookie) a very good bet here.
1)England are very powerful, perhaps one of the best teams in the world, looking by names and reputation. However, they don't look like a team, and as long as I can remember that has been a fact. I remember 96' and Venables' team, they had glimses of teamwork and they understood each other very well, but it all faded away very quickly. Also they had a solid few games back in 1998., and of course Euro 2004 where they destroyed Baric's Croatia without many problems.
I was one of Eriksson's naysayers, never liked the guy, and I thought McClaren will set them straight soon, it surely looked like that for a while, but the game against Macedonia overshadowed that big win over Greece and released media hound dogs on McClaren and his team. Not the best situation if you ask me. And that's only pressure wise.
2)England will be missing Hargreaves, Gerrard, probably Rio Ferdinand. Gerrard is probably their best player, Hargreaves is very useful while only Rio Ferdinand can play sweeper role in McClaren's team.
3)Wayne Rooney hasn't scored in 16 hours of play.
4)Stewart Downing and Scott Parker aren't in best form ever, and with Shaun Wright Phillips (bench warmer in his club) I don't think the newly formed midfield (alongside Frank Lampard, who has seen better days when it comes to scoring) are able to outplay Croatia in Maksimir.
5)Croatia hasn't lost a home match since it's independence, except the friendly match against France. As far as qualifiers are concerned, Croatia are unbeaten.
6)Despite the fact that The S*n and similar tabloid crap newspapers tried to create a fuss from Slaven Bilic's estimation that England game was crap on WC (he said similar for Croatia's play on that tournament), Slaven Bilic is respected in England, and as a player that wore West Ham and Everton jerseys and spent some time analyzing the coaching of Arsene Wenger, I'm sure he is more than suitable for the job.
It will be a hard match no doubts about that, but current problems in England squad, mixed with bitter feeling of draw against Macedonia, surely can't mean anything bad for the Croats.
position breakdown
GK - edge to the visitors, Paul Robinson hasn't conceded a goal in almost 9 hours, if we don't count those two goals by Sweden, both after free kicks.
Defence: Croatia have Josip Simunic who will look after Crouchie, also in form Dario Simic, and dependable Robert Kovač, a solid back 4, there are several variables, with Corluka as RB or Simic at that position.
England's back 4 is solid as well, Ledley King, experienced Gary Neville, Ledley King and Terry who was solid even in an all round lousy game against Macedonia. Pretty tied here, both defensive lines play together for a while, no big shuffles here.
England's big miss will be Rio Ferdinand.
Midfield: England's ideal midfield is one of the strongest in the world (Hargreaves, Gerrard, Lampard, Beckham), but after first two are out due injuries and Becks playing the role of a scapegoat of the new system, Lampard will connect with Man United's Carrick in CM. Lampard has seen better days, and I definitely don't like solutions like Phil Neville on the wing, or Wright Phillips who isn't playing much lately.
Scott Parker is a big question, England have several tactical solutions with 3-5-2 so I won't make any big analysis here. The fact is, their big misses are Hargreaves and Gerrard.
Croatia will have left footed Rapaic as a RM (replacing injured Srna who is a big miss), new Portsmouth acquisition Niko Kranjčar on the left side, and N.Kovač - Modrić duo in the middle. Perhaps we will see Eduardo as a midfield-forward, paired up with Petric up front. Klasnic or Eduardo is also a question, but I think Bilic will decide for Klasnic, despite his scoring drought.
Attack: I always liked Peter Crouch, no wonder, but as you know Crouch backers always had to fight with knee jerk bollocks and stupid remarks made about his height and looks, which btw have nothing to do with his game, which was very good even last season when he couldn't score for 20 games. He still knows how to play, he's a typical set up player, but this season this guy is on a serious roll. He is very good technically, and will have to use that against tall Simunic who will be glued to him after every FK or corner.
Wayne Rooney is totally the opposite. Man U striker is out of form for a while now and even though his talent is immense, it's hard to expect that he will explode against such a tough backline on hot venue as Maksimir surely is.
Don't underestimate Mladen Petric. FC Basel striker is one of the hottest strikers in Europe right now, this guy is a scoring machine this season. Eduardo from Dinamo Zagreb has pace and speed, he also has solid ball control and will play in front of his fans.
Ivan Klasnic can't seem to shake off the bad form. Expect Bosko Balaban to enter in mid 2nd half, he is always dangerous when he enters, also Ivica Olic with his speed is an option. Plenty more combinations here for Bilic than McClaren, who has to pray that Rooney will end his scoring drought.
Keys to win:
For England, it will basically be Crouch or Rooney's move since I really doubt Lampard will get back to scoring in Zagreb. Gerrard could've been a huge threat but Lampard, Carrick and SWP won't be as much, even though they are surely dangerous and nothing to underestimate.
Croatia will search to control the midfield and neutralize Crouch's set up plays from long balls. Modric and/or Eduardo will run a lot trying to find a gap in England's defence, Niko Kovač will probably watch Lampard, and of course, if Croatia want to win, they will have to insist on ground play, a lot of combinations and clever passes rather than long balls, which will be drowned deep in England's half.
Basically, I believe this will be a very hard match, but according to team situations (injuries, absentees) and morale/confidence level in both teams , Croatia should be able to get something from this game and stay unbeaten. Croatia DNB is my call here, 5 units.
Other bets coming up... :cheers:
I skipped betting on the game in Moscow, where Croatia coped very well with a revamped team and a new coach, and England surely seemed to be on the rise then, but not at the moment. Let me just tell you a few facts, then you'll see why I find 1.55 on 1X (local bookie) a very good bet here.
1)England are very powerful, perhaps one of the best teams in the world, looking by names and reputation. However, they don't look like a team, and as long as I can remember that has been a fact. I remember 96' and Venables' team, they had glimses of teamwork and they understood each other very well, but it all faded away very quickly. Also they had a solid few games back in 1998., and of course Euro 2004 where they destroyed Baric's Croatia without many problems.
I was one of Eriksson's naysayers, never liked the guy, and I thought McClaren will set them straight soon, it surely looked like that for a while, but the game against Macedonia overshadowed that big win over Greece and released media hound dogs on McClaren and his team. Not the best situation if you ask me. And that's only pressure wise.
2)England will be missing Hargreaves, Gerrard, probably Rio Ferdinand. Gerrard is probably their best player, Hargreaves is very useful while only Rio Ferdinand can play sweeper role in McClaren's team.
3)Wayne Rooney hasn't scored in 16 hours of play.
4)Stewart Downing and Scott Parker aren't in best form ever, and with Shaun Wright Phillips (bench warmer in his club) I don't think the newly formed midfield (alongside Frank Lampard, who has seen better days when it comes to scoring) are able to outplay Croatia in Maksimir.
5)Croatia hasn't lost a home match since it's independence, except the friendly match against France. As far as qualifiers are concerned, Croatia are unbeaten.
6)Despite the fact that The S*n and similar tabloid crap newspapers tried to create a fuss from Slaven Bilic's estimation that England game was crap on WC (he said similar for Croatia's play on that tournament), Slaven Bilic is respected in England, and as a player that wore West Ham and Everton jerseys and spent some time analyzing the coaching of Arsene Wenger, I'm sure he is more than suitable for the job.
It will be a hard match no doubts about that, but current problems in England squad, mixed with bitter feeling of draw against Macedonia, surely can't mean anything bad for the Croats.
position breakdown
GK - edge to the visitors, Paul Robinson hasn't conceded a goal in almost 9 hours, if we don't count those two goals by Sweden, both after free kicks.
Defence: Croatia have Josip Simunic who will look after Crouchie, also in form Dario Simic, and dependable Robert Kovač, a solid back 4, there are several variables, with Corluka as RB or Simic at that position.
England's back 4 is solid as well, Ledley King, experienced Gary Neville, Ledley King and Terry who was solid even in an all round lousy game against Macedonia. Pretty tied here, both defensive lines play together for a while, no big shuffles here.
England's big miss will be Rio Ferdinand.
Midfield: England's ideal midfield is one of the strongest in the world (Hargreaves, Gerrard, Lampard, Beckham), but after first two are out due injuries and Becks playing the role of a scapegoat of the new system, Lampard will connect with Man United's Carrick in CM. Lampard has seen better days, and I definitely don't like solutions like Phil Neville on the wing, or Wright Phillips who isn't playing much lately.
Scott Parker is a big question, England have several tactical solutions with 3-5-2 so I won't make any big analysis here. The fact is, their big misses are Hargreaves and Gerrard.
Croatia will have left footed Rapaic as a RM (replacing injured Srna who is a big miss), new Portsmouth acquisition Niko Kranjčar on the left side, and N.Kovač - Modrić duo in the middle. Perhaps we will see Eduardo as a midfield-forward, paired up with Petric up front. Klasnic or Eduardo is also a question, but I think Bilic will decide for Klasnic, despite his scoring drought.
Attack: I always liked Peter Crouch, no wonder, but as you know Crouch backers always had to fight with knee jerk bollocks and stupid remarks made about his height and looks, which btw have nothing to do with his game, which was very good even last season when he couldn't score for 20 games. He still knows how to play, he's a typical set up player, but this season this guy is on a serious roll. He is very good technically, and will have to use that against tall Simunic who will be glued to him after every FK or corner.
Wayne Rooney is totally the opposite. Man U striker is out of form for a while now and even though his talent is immense, it's hard to expect that he will explode against such a tough backline on hot venue as Maksimir surely is.
Don't underestimate Mladen Petric. FC Basel striker is one of the hottest strikers in Europe right now, this guy is a scoring machine this season. Eduardo from Dinamo Zagreb has pace and speed, he also has solid ball control and will play in front of his fans.
Ivan Klasnic can't seem to shake off the bad form. Expect Bosko Balaban to enter in mid 2nd half, he is always dangerous when he enters, also Ivica Olic with his speed is an option. Plenty more combinations here for Bilic than McClaren, who has to pray that Rooney will end his scoring drought.
Keys to win:
For England, it will basically be Crouch or Rooney's move since I really doubt Lampard will get back to scoring in Zagreb. Gerrard could've been a huge threat but Lampard, Carrick and SWP won't be as much, even though they are surely dangerous and nothing to underestimate.
Croatia will search to control the midfield and neutralize Crouch's set up plays from long balls. Modric and/or Eduardo will run a lot trying to find a gap in England's defence, Niko Kovač will probably watch Lampard, and of course, if Croatia want to win, they will have to insist on ground play, a lot of combinations and clever passes rather than long balls, which will be drowned deep in England's half.
Basically, I believe this will be a very hard match, but according to team situations (injuries, absentees) and morale/confidence level in both teams , Croatia should be able to get something from this game and stay unbeaten. Croatia DNB is my call here, 5 units.
Other bets coming up... :cheers:
. But this is an american board and I should comply, you're right. I'll write the name of the month next time. :cheers: :shake:
