Purdue vs Arizona

Now, Purdue hasn't been in a shootout since the Ohio game. The Louisville game had 63 points but in retrospect that isn't a lot in a UL game. At the same point, Purdue didn't face any top offenses that I can recall. Playing in the B1G West will do that to you.
 
Total gut call here, and I don't even know the line, but Purdue is a nice story...that is about it. I think Arizona offense should maul them.
 
I feel like that running QB will give Purdue problems. Haven't seen anything like it in Big Ten. Only reason not to take Zona is their idiot coach.
 
Purdue has issues putting up points. But 53rd in plays per game so pretty fast tempo I think
One-dimensional on offense with poor running game. But Markell Jones seems to be coming on strong for that rush attack.
Pass defense hasn't been tested at all
 
aplous said:
Don’t have the stat handy but Purdue was awful at giving up big chunk/explosive plays on D
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Not sure what criteria being used but Purdont was actually top ten or top 15 in preventing 30+ yard plays this year in the nation. Arizona, not so much. I realize purdue plays in a conference where offense is optional, though.

Number of Chunk Plays Allowed:

Over 10
Arizona 197
Purdont 169

Over 20
Arizona 69
Purdont 57

Over 30
Arizona 37
Purdont 17
 
Moorhead’s definition of explosive plays is a run of 12 yards or longer or a pass completion of 15 yards or more.

Maybe that helps?
 
I think Aplous might be looking at a more advanced statistic.

I say that because purdue is top 30 in yards per carry defense which would generally capture the explosive plays within the subset.

I think it would help if I understood exactly what you mean by explosiveness and how the stat is measured that Purdue is 92nd. It would seem difficult given their overall rush stats.

I mean I could be missing a concept with this .. like maybe the consistency of the gains allowed or something. Depends on how this is all defined.

Can I get a link to what you are using Aplous?
 
Have to think strong motivational edge for Purdue here given the new coach and a program that hasn't been to a bowl game in how long?

Vaguely recall arizona under dick rod not showing up for a few of their bowl games in recent years.
 
Last edited:
I assume splitting of snaps at QB for Zona. Tate has been kind of nursing a shoulder I think.
 
vk said:
I assume splitting of snaps at QB for Zona. Tate has been kind of nursing a shoulder I think.
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That injury did occur over 4 weeks ago however. Is there an indication from bowl prep it has been bothering him or is Dawkins getting more reps than a backup normally would?
 
Brohm went 3-0 SU at WKU in bowls

2014 -3.5 vs CM 49-48 (was the big comeback for Chips with the failed 2pt conv at the end)
2015 -2.5 vs USF 45-35 (USF led 14-0, but WKU came back to lead 38-21 late 3rd, USF cut it to 3 in the 4th before WKU scored last).
2016 -7 vs Memphis 51-31 (Memphis just could never keep up 28-17 HT, 44-24 end of 3)

Rodriguez has gone 3-1 SU at Zona in bowls (1-3 ATS)

2012 -8.5 vs Nevada 49-48 (Zona was down 14 with only 2m left, but won recovering an onside kick in the process)
2013 -7 vs Boston College 42-19 (Arizona scored 35 unanswered in the first 3 qrt)
2014 -3 vs Boise in Fiesta 30-38 (Boise led 21-0 and 28-7 before Zona tried coming back)
2015 -9 vs New Mexico 45-37 (Arizona nearly blew an 18 pt 2nd half lead)
 
Can't imagine UA doing anything more than using this game as a way to hype Tate for next year. Not sure what it means, but this is the showcase to get him up front for Heisman and actually get the program on the map for a minute
 
vk said:
They've been splitting snaps. What they have been doing in bowl prep, I have no idea.
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If I'm not mistaken the only reason Dawkins played vs ASU was due to Tate's injury. Other than that I think he's just played some mop-up duty. If Tate has healed from the shoulder in the finale I would think he is the QB the entire game.
 
Purdue should have a full assortment of trick plays, Brohm likes them.
 
B.A.R. said:
Now, Purdue hasn't been in a shootout since the Ohio game. The Louisville game had 63 points but in retrospect that isn't a lot in a UL game. At the same point, Purdue didn't face any top offenses that I can recall. Playing in the B1G West will do that to you.
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Not necessarily a shoot-out in the sense it was just more of a blowout, led 34-7 HT (13 Boiler pts were off short fields due to Ohio TOs or SOD).

Purdue has had some good yardage games this year that just didn't translate to pts.

438y vs NW and just 13 pts (Sindelar threw for 376 in first full game as starter - PU outgained NW by 48y)
474y vs Rut and just 12 pts (PU outgained Rut by 257y! kicked two FGs from inside the 10, threw 2 INTs and SOD 3x).
 
Foster Farms Bowl: 5 Purdue players to watch vs. Arizona
Mike Carmin, Journal & Courier Published 9:23 a.m. ET Dec. 25, 2017 | Updated 11:02 a.m. ET Dec. 25, 2017


Journal & Courier Purdue insiders Nathan Baird and Mike Carmin and host Clayton Duffy on Jeff Brohm's signing day haul. Nathan Baird/Journal & Courier

Another solid defensive game from the Boilermakers is needed against the Wildcats

SAN FRANCISCO – Five Purdue players to watch in Wednesday’s Foster Farms Bowl against Arizona at Levi’s Stadium:

JA’WHAUN BENTLEY

The talented senior's final game. Missed the Old Oaken Bucket victory but the Boilermakers picked up their captain and gave him one more game. Expect a big performance. Led the defense in tackles and is poised to add to his total. He’s played well most of the season and has stepped up with big plays throughout this surprising turnaround by the defense. Benefited from the play of Purdue’s front – including Gelen Robinson, Lorenzo Neal and Danny Ezechukwu – and plugged the holes most of the time. Has a tough task in trying to corral quarterback Khali Tate and Arizona’s potent running attack.

MARKELL JONES

One of the few healthy running backs on the roster. The Boilermakers have lost Tario Fuller and Richie Worship to injuries and D.J. Knox is coming off thumb surgery but is expected to contribute in some capacity. Jones enjoyed a monster outing against Indiana, rushing for 217 yards on 31 carries. He didn’t score a touchdown but it didn’t matter because Purdue had enough points to win the game. Jones missed most of the first four games due to a knee injury and the running back rotation has kept the 2014 Indiana Mr. Football fresh down the stretch. If the Boilermakers have the lead in the second half, expect a heavy dose of Jones to eat up yards and clock.

636451424577010203-JC-photos-11.jpg

Markell Jones gets past Antonio Shenault of Minnesota for a touchdown with 1:17 remaining Saturday, October 7, 2017, at Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue defeated Minnesota 31-17 in a game delayed by weather. (Photo: John Terhune/Journal & Courier)

DANNY EZECHUKWU

Another senior defender playing in his final game. Lots of seniors on this defense, which has enjoyed a historic turnaround in points given up and rushing yards allowed. Ezechukwu played a big role in making the defense the storyline of the season. Playing the Leo position – a hybrid end – Ezechukwu registered five sacks and recovered three fumbles, a sign he’s always around the ball. With a month to prepare, look for Nick Holt to dig deep in his bag of schemes to use Ezechukwu and other defenders to confuse Tate.

ELIJAH SINDELAR

Another chance to solidify the No. 1 quarterback position going into the 2018 season. He’s played well since ascending to the top spot after David Blough suffered a dislocated ankle against Illinois. Just one interception the last three games along with eight touchdown passes in that time frame.

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Appeared regulated to the No. 2 position before Blough’s injury but his experience from earlier in the season paid off. He’s confident and his receivers are starting to make plays down the field. Arizona’s defense is young and probably a year or two away from becoming a force in the Pac-12. With the help of coach Jeff Brohm, Sindelar should have opportunities to make big plays.

636399945879703652-LAF-Pfoot-vs-Louisville-41.jpg

Purdue wide receiver Anthony Mahoungou with a pass reception in the fourth quarter against Louisville Saturday, September 2, 2017, in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Louisville defeated Purdue 35-28. (Photo: John Terhune/Journal & Courier)

ANTHONY MAHOUNGOU

Was benched following the loss to Rutgers where the dropped passes outweighed the catches. Was back on the field against Iowa after Jared Sparks suffered an ankle injury and couldn't go in the second half. However, a five-play sequence resulting in two touchdowns defined his season and gives the Wildcats a weapon to cover. Is playing with a high level of confidence and Mahoungou seems to thrive under those circumstances. He is the big-play threat in the passing game and has developed a strong chemistry with Sindelar.

BONUS: JOE SCHOPPER

Do you think special teams coordinator Tony Levine won’t have something ready for the bowl game? You can count on it. Purdue’s punter is 2-for-2 passing for 44 yards and has one rush for 13 yards. Just the idea of a trick play has probably kept Arizona coaches looking at film.
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Foster Farms Bowl: 5 Arizona players to watch vs. Purdue
Mike Carmin, Journal & Courier Published 5:12 a.m. ET Dec. 24, 2017

The Wildcats feature plenty of weapons on offense to challenge Purdue's defense

SAN FRANCISO - Five Arizona players to watch in Wednesday’s Foster Farms Bowl matchup against Purdue at Levi's Stadium:

KHALIL TATE

The No. 1 priority for the Boilermakers. Since taking over the quarterback spot full-time from Brandon Dawkins, Tate has produced eye-popping numbers, especially on the ground. The stretch started with a 327 -yard rushing performance on just 14 carries along with completing 12 of 13 passes for 153 yards at Colorado in early October. He rushed for more than 200 yards three times and has accounted for more than 2,500 yards of total offense and 21 touchdowns in the last eight games. Compared to Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, who the Boilermakers faced in the season opener after winning the Heisman Trophy in 2016. Tate is already on the early watch lists for the 2018 Heisman Trophy.

COLIN SCHOOLER

Coach Rich Rodriguez was committed to playing several young players when the season started. He’s one example of a true freshman taking charge and has shown a knack for making game-changing plays. Fair or not, Schooler was compared to former Arizona standout linebacker Scooby Wright. The middle linebacker was named the Pac-12 Conference’s Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, finishing second on the Wildcats in tackles with 88 behind another freshman, Tony Fields II. Schooler also produced a team-high 13 tackles for loss in just nine conference games. Despite his youth, a playmaker to watch and someone the Boilermakers will have to contend with on nearly every play.

636496665193886487-USATSI-10298700.jpg

Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Shun Brown (6) runs the ball against the Utah Utes during the first half at Arizona Stadium. (Photo: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports)

SHUN BROWN

When Tate goes to the air, he’s looking in the direction of the junior. Brown led the Wildcats in receptions (39) and receiving yards (511) and was the only Arizona player to make at least one catch in 11 of the 12 games. He made a total of 33 catches in his first two years but has stepped up and become a threat to give the Wildcats a balanced attack.

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Another area Brown can hurt the Boilermakers – punt returns. He ran back two punts for touchdowns in the first three games and had a third called back. His presence will challenge Purdue special teams coordinator Tony Levine, punter Joe Schopper and the coverage unit to keep Brown in check.

KYLAN WILBORN

Staying with the freshman theme on defense, the end/linebacker who plays the Stud position has made a big first impression. Wilborn led all Power 5 freshmen in sacks with 7.5, including four against UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. He’s also helped the Wildcats create turnovers with four forced fumbles. Arizona has forced 24 turnovers this season, multiple ones in eight of the 12 games, allowing the offense to score 70 points. Wilborn could make life difficult for either left tackle Eric Swingler or right tackle David Steinmetz if the Boilermakers don’t keep the California native from pressuring quarterback Elijah Sindelar.

J.J. TAYLOR

While Tate has received a bulk of the attention in the Wildcats ranking third nationally in rushing – behind Army and Navy – don’t forget about Taylor. He gained 828 yards on the ground. He’s a workhorse with 136 carries, proving his durability. He earned the Pac-12 Conference Co-Freshman Player of the Year after totaling seven touchdowns, including five on the ground. The redshirt freshman saw his 2016 season cut short after suffering a broken ankle in the fourth game last year. The 5-foot-6 Taylor enters the bowl game averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

636496665811806448-USATSI-10437694.jpg

Arizona Wildcats quarterback Khalil Tate (14) runs the ball in the second quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Sun Devil Stadium. (Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
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Purdue were good defensively against the run this season. Gave up 3.59 ypc against 4.50, and 133.3 ypg against 176 ypg.

Tates first four starts and second four are night and day

41-58 186ypg, 6 TD 2 INT vs 48-86 126 ypg, 3 TD 5 INT

59 carries for 840 yds (ave 14.24), 8 TD's vs 64 carries 427 yds (ave 6.67), 4 TD's
 
Anyone think Arizona TT U 34.5 is worth a look? This seems high to me based on how Purdue's D has played this season (albeit against some less than stellar offenses as others have pointed out). I also think Purdue O will be able to move the ball a bit against the leaky Zona D and keep Tate and company off the field.

The status of Tate is something I'm watching. If he is limited I like this even more.
 
Important Injuries
Purdue
Date Pos Player Injury Status Statistics
12/27 4:41am K Spencer Evans Undisclosed is probable Wednesday vs Arizona
12/27 4:41am TE Brycen Hopkins Back is probable Wednesday vs Arizona
12/27 4:41am QB Jared Sparks Ankle is probable Wednesday vs Arizona
12/27 4:41am DT Eddy Wilson Personal is OUT Wednesday vs Arizona
12/26 6:03am RB D.J. Knox Thumb is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Arizona
12/10 8:18am LB Ja'Whaun Bentley Undisclosed is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Arizona U
11/19 9:56am RB Richie Worship Knee is out for season
11/14 7:20am RB Tario Fuller Ankle is out for season
11/05 7:17am QB David Blough Leg is out for season
10/23 9:07am OL Grant Hermanns Knee is out indefinitely
10/13 4:55am DT Keiwan Jones Knee out for season
08/23 8:17am S C.J. Parker ACL out for season
Arizona
Date Pos Player Injury Status Statistics
12/26 6:05am QB Donavan Tate Left Team is out for season
12/07 8:08am DL Justin Belknap Knee is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Purdue
12/07 8:07am DL Luca Bruno Concussion is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Purdue
12/04 6:35am QB Khalil Tate Shoulder injured last game, is probable Wednesday vs Purdue
12/03 2:04pm LB Josh Brown Ankle is "?" Wednesday vs Purdue
10/19 1:18pm DE Jalen Harris Undisclosed is out indefinitely
10/03 10:33am S Isaiah Hayes Shoulder out for season
10/03 10:29am WR Cam Denson Foot out for season
09/14 9:06am LB Carrington Vaughn Knee out for season
09/12 4:53am LS Nick Reinhardt Knee out for season
09/05 9:34am T Bryson Cain Ankle out for season
 
I think you have to take Purdue's stats with a grain of salt considering who they played in the Big Ten. They drew Michigan, Rutgers and Indiana out of the East.

I think they'll have problems stopping Zona. I like Zona TT and game over.
 
Team YPR RA YPA PA SOS TO
Ariz 6.9 4.8 7.6 7.6 70.79 +4
Purd 4.4 3.6 6.6 7.0 74.67 +3

Arizona .557 points/play (6th)
Purdue .264 points/play Def (12th)
 
I agree w/ the comments on Purdue's schedule, not the strongest. I did notice their D seems to travel well though (at least from a PA perspective) if you look at their road games:

@ Mizzou: 3 PA
@ Wisc: 17 PA
@ Rutgers: 14 PA
@ NW: 23 PA
@ Iowa: 15 PA

Not exactly murderers row, but that's good work, esp against Mizzou + Wisconsin.

I'm less concerned w/ their D and more concerned w/ their terrible offense. They will need to move the ball a bit to control the clock, flip field position, etc.

Arizona TT is currently 34 at my book.
 
It boiled down to me based on what I saw during the season and simply put...I don't know if Purdue defense can stop Arizona from scoring. Even if they hold them to 24...can Purdue put up 20+ against a shitty team? Maybe, but if it becomes any form of a shootout, which I believe it will, I am going with Arizona.
 
I agree, which is why I don't like a side here. I don't trust the Purdue O, even if the Zona D is a sieve. Just not sure I see Zona getting to 35+.

Should be an interesting game to watch.
 
Qdog said:
I agree, which is why I don't like a side here. I don't trust the Purdue O, even if the Zona D is a sieve. Just not sure I see Zona getting to 35+.

Should be an interesting game to watch.
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These things are making me consider the game under
 
ksimpsc said:
These things are making me consider the game under
Click to expand...

I agree. Total seems high to me as well. I just diced it a bit further and preferred the Arizona TT U. Game seems like a coin flip to me and I think Purdue can slow them down a bit.

I also noticed the total has dropped from 66 to 64 at BM. Glad I locked in early on Zona TT U 34.5 :)
 
I'm on AZ tt over, only other QB Purdue has seen like Tate was Lamar somewhat and they had an offseason to prepare for him...still gave up 35. I do think this could be a shootout, if Purdue tries to bleed clock to start, so be it but AZ can score very quickly. It's possible Wildcats score a couple quick at some point in the game and artificially make Purdue speed the game up. And not like the AZ defense is worth much. Purdue might get several chunk yardage plays as well even if they're not trying.

Weather in Santa Clara gonna be 50s and clear.
 
i think ville had a few rz issues as well. I had purdue in that one ...sweet.

Great thread people. I am waiting for halftime.
 
inspired until the kneel down at the end of the game when i would make sure the qb left with a torn acl.

I took the under 2h.
 
i think the fake kneel is a play that could get someone very hurt....may inspire a fight before the game is over
 
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