Public Handicapper Picks--Week 11

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Lots of love for Texas Tech and Iowa so far

Stanford Steve 0-0 42-31
BYU/Tex Tech u 52x
Miss State +9x
Iowa +6x
Alabama -9x
USC -13x
Tulane +3x
Tulane +3x

Colin Cowherd 0-0 26-19
Indianapolis -5x 33-24
Baltimore -3x 30-20
Tampa Bay -2x 27-23
Detroit -7x 33-21
Pittsburgh +3 24-23

Todd Fuhrman 0-0 39-30
UCLA -1x
Nevada +9x
Bama/LSU u 49x
Auburn +6x
Vandy/Auburn u 45x
Missouri +7
Iowa 1st H +3x
Texas Tech -10

Bear Fallaca 0-0 38-29
Wake Forest +7
Wisconsin +11x
Auburn +7x
Iowa tt u 16x

Adam Kramer 0-0 46-48
Texas Tech -10
Iowa +6x
Wake Forest +6x
Tulane +4x
Bama/LSU o 49x
Colorado St +5x
S Florida -13x
UCF +1x
W Virginia -5x

SVP Picks 0-0 41-47
Penn St +14x
Missouri +6x
Iowa +6x
Wake Forest +6x
Colorado St +4x
Texas Tech -10x

Pam Maldonado 0-0 28-35
N Ill tt u 19x
Indiana -14x
UConn +9x
Iowa/Oregon u 43
BYU/Tex Tech u 52x
LSU tt u 19x
N Caro/Stanford u 41x
UMass tt u 19x
Mizzou St/Liberty u 51x
Florida State ML
A Force/SJ State o 67x

Phil Steele 0-0 22-23
California +20x
N Mexico St +9x
Iowa +6x
Liberty -7x
Temple +7

Joel Klatt Picks 0-0 21-31
Iowa +6x
Texas Tech -10x
Texas A&M -7x
Alabama -9x

My Picks 0-0 28-35
S Florida -13x
Iowa +6x (waiting to see if +7 shows up, will take 6x if not)
Teaser
USC -8x
Iowa +12x
 
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McElroy's Podcast - my recall and brief notes. I know I will mispell players' names.

3-2

Tulane vs Memphis -6.5. (I know line is now down to -3.5).
He said Memphis offense has the advantage. Questions re Tulane QB situation. "Memphis to win game but Tulane to cover." Don't know how he now accounts for line change. W

BYU vs TxTech -10.5.
BYU running backs' health a concern. Can BYU force Tech turnovers? BYU has 12 Ints this year. He is normally surprised at a spread tthis high but attributes it to Tech D Line. Takes TxTech - 10.5 W

Indiana vs PSU + 14.5
Speaks glowingly of Mendoza. Concerns about PSU's Drunkenmyer QB injury staty=us. PSU has to be able to run and keep game low scoring. Loves Indiana O line and running game. Concerns receiver Serrat receiver for Indy hamstring, LB Fisher injury. "Lay the points take Indiana." L

GA vs Messy +7.5
"Trap Game" He spent a fair amount of time. Questions GA pass rush. Loves their offense run game. GA is 9th in time of possession on Offense. Messy is 95th against the run on D. Concerns re GA defense injury status Jordan Hall D tackle, Chris at LB and Demeron Jones D Back. "GA wins, Messy covers, would not be surprised if Messy leads after 1H." L

Ducks vs Iowa +6.5
Best Iowa offense in their special eams and punt returns. Ducks O has underperformed against good compeition. If Ducks get to 23 to 27 can Iowa win game? He doesn't think so. "I want to take Iowa, I can't. Close win by Ducks." It was hard to tell what he thought re the line?

But See his "Giant Killers" below. He liked Iowa at +5.5 W

A&M vs Mizzu +7.5
If you listened you'd think he liked Aggies -7.5 IMO. He did say "low scoring game." He concluded with "Aggies win, take Mizzu plus the points." L

Other Games briefly discussed:

Wake vs VA -7
Wake won last 5 btw these two teams. "Wake will make it interesting."

FSU vs Clemson -2.5
"Clemson has not been good" Other comments made me think he leaned FSU

Cal vs Ville -20.5
Questions Cal's offense. He essentially echoed my preconceived bias this year as Cal being in my words a squirrelly team" to figure out. I heard no pick and I am through betting Cal myself

Florida vs KY +3.5
"Low scoring." He had a concern re Florida offense and loss of Wilson receiver for Florida.

LSU vs Bama - 11.5
He had lots of information. He is calling game and made no pick. Bama has won 5 of last 6 at home vs LSU. He is not normally a homer and did not think so here. But, he convinced me to take Bama at -10 whether he intended to or not.

Navy vs Notre Dame
"N.D. runs Navy out of the gym"

"Giant Killers" (3-2)

Tulane +6.5 (don't know his toughts re current line of +3.5. I took Memphis -3.5) W

MissSt +7.5 L

Mizzu +6.5 L

Iowa +5.5 (earlier grpahic was Iowa +6.5 and is the line at my local) W

Wake +7 W
 
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Cowherd's Blazin' 5

Indianapolis -5x 33-24
Baltimore -3x 30-20
Tampa Bay -2x 27-23
Detroit -7x 33-21
Pittsburgh +3 24-23
 
lb49ers said:
Cowherd's Blazin' 5

Indianapolis -5x 33-24
Baltimore -3x 30-20
Tampa Bay -2x 27-23
Detroit -7x 33-21
Pittsburgh +3 24-23
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If I recall correctly he is generally awful when it comes to falcons games. I assume it more a Indy play cause he has always liked playing good teams off a loss. Didn’t listen to show or anything just assuming.
 
Added picks for Bear and for Phil Steele.

Added another pick for SVP. Long after he gave his five Wnners picks he came on after a commercial and said, "this has never happened before, but I'm adding a pick. I was so impressed by the promo we just ran (about the last time Game Day was at Tech, the time they beat Texas on a last second pass to Crabtree) I'm adding Texas Tech -10x."
 
SVP mentioned a capper named Kevin Sheehan during his show last night and said he was having a great year, going 70-41 so far this year. I found his picks for this week and he said he just looks for the games where the money is most one-sided and takes the other side. I've know a lot of guys who tried this and none of them won over the long haul. Bear is the perfect example. He was beating everyone a few years back, then switched to the fade the public strategy and has never had a winning year since. It reminds me of guys who bet the no pass line in craps and think that gives them the same odds as the house has

Not sure if he does it every week, but this week Sheehane took all dogs except for the Pack. No way he could be 70-41 if he uses that strategy every week. NFL league dogs are 60-74 this year, a win rate of 44%. College dogs are 301-325, a win rate of 44%.

Plus he takes a lot of road dogs and they are even worse, NFL road dogs going 45.4% college road dogs going 46%. Home dogs in the NFL are only 43.9. College home dogs are the only ones who have been in positive numbers at 52.4%

In any case, here are his picks.
Tulane +3x
Colorado +6x
Purdue +29x
Iowa +6x
Auburn +7
Wake +7
NFL
Atlanta +6x
Vikings +4
Dolphins +9
Saints +5x
Commanders +8
Pack -2x
 
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I never like being on same side of lopsided bet games, if I can justify it I like to be against but never liked the idea of strictly playing something to fade money.

Love Iowa but wouldn’t have guessed ducks be overwhelmingly popular this week. Think most the ppl I know would either play Iowa or pass. Like wake to a lessor extent, certainly expect uva would be incredibly popular and like every acc team with a pretty record I think they a tad fugazi.
 
2daBank said:
I never like being on same side of lopsided bet games, if I can justify it I like to be against but never liked the idea of strictly playing something to fade money.

Love Iowa but wouldn’t have guessed ducks be overwhelmingly popular this week. Think most the ppl I know would either play Iowa or pass. Like wake to a lessor extent, certainly expect uva would be incredibly popular and like every acc team with a pretty record I think they a tad fugazi.
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The guy said Iowa was the one pick he had this week where the public money was not heavy on the other side.

I love Iowa getting points at home against anyone. I automatically play them. Especially when they have Iowa Weather like they are going to have Saturday--wind, cold temps, rain, turning to sleet.
 
TahoeLegend said:
The guy said Iowa was the one pick he had this week where the public money was not heavy on the other side.

I love Iowa getting points at home against anyone. I automatically play them. Especially when they have Iowa Weather like they are going to have Saturday--wind, cold temps, rain, turning to sleet.
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Gotcha. That makes more sense cause don’t think it a huge secret taking points w Iowa at home usually a good idea. Yea the weather kinda an added bonus, i think there lot of matchups that favor Iowa. their offense should be able to stress ducks linebackers and ducks run game is pretty reliant on explosives which Iowa rarely gives up. If wasn’t for the weather I’d have prob considered the over but as is I’m thrilled getting 6.5 and kinda lean to ducks tt under 23.5 but not sure I’ll play that.
 
2daBank said:
Gotcha. That makes more sense cause don’t think it a huge secret taking points w Iowa at home usually a good idea. Yea the weather kinda an added bonus, i think there lot of matchups that favor Iowa. their offense should be able to stress ducks linebackers and ducks run game is pretty reliant on explosives which Iowa rarely gives up. If wasn’t for the weather I’d have prob considered the over but as is I’m thrilled getting 6.5 and kinda lean to ducks tt under 23.5 but not sure I’ll play that.
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Iowa is even scoring some points this year, something new for them. 34 points or more in five games
 
Added picks for Stanford Steve
BYU/Tex Tech u 52x
Miss State +9x
Iowa +6x
Alabama -9x
USC -13x
Tulane +3x

No doubt what the most popular pick is for the public cappers. All but two of them took Iowa, and those two took either Iowa tt under or game total under. First time this year that every one of them has been on the same game
 
Two Utes said:
Oregon plays in their fair share of bad weather. Not saying Iowa can't cover or win but the Ducks are no stranger to bad weather.
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Exactly. I do not know what will happen but the weather angle as a reason to take Iowa is not my favorite
 
Add W Virginia -6x for Stanford Steve

I like that pick even though W V has only won two games all year, but it's not for me. I wonder if maybe Colorado has quit for the year

Never did find Iowa +7 so I took the +6x
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Good weather for almost every game in the country except Oregon/Iowa. Warm and sunny for BYU/Texas Tech but, as usual, strong winds in Lubbock.

NCAAF Weather Today - Weather Report for November 28, 2025

Daily NCAAF weather forecasts for every field, including temperature, wind, and chance of rain or snow. See how the it will affect games this week.
www.covers.com
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Blows, I was really hoping the front would go thru Columbia before the am/mizzou game kicked, now looks like it won’t show up til after the game. Wasn’t a make or break for me liking Mizzou or Aggies team total under 27.5 but it wouldn’t have hurt 🤣
 
bones said:
McElroy's Podcast - my recall and brief notes. I know I will mispell players' names.

3-2

Tulane vs Memphis -6.5. (I know line is now down to -3.5).
He said Memphis offense has the advantage. Questions re Tulane QB situation. "Memphis to win game but Tulane to cover." Don't know how he now accounts for line change. W

BYU vs TxTech -10.5.
BYU running backs' health a concern. Can BYU force Tech turnovers? BYU has 12 Ints this year. He is normally surprised at a spread tthis high but attributes it to Tech D Line. Takes TxTech - 10.5 W

Indiana vs PSU + 14.5
Speaks glowingly of Mendoza. Concerns about PSU's Drunkenmyer QB injury staty=us. PSU has to be able to run and keep game low scoring. Loves Indiana O line and running game. Concerns receiver Serrat receiver for Indy hamstring, LB Fisher injury. "Lay the points take Indiana." L

GA vs Messy +7.5
"Trap Game" He spent a fair amount of time. Questions GA pass rush. Loves their offense run game. GA is 9th in time of possession on Offense. Messy is 95th against the run on D. Concerns re GA defense injury status Jordan Hall D tackle, Chris at LB and Demeron Jones D Back. "GA wins, Messy covers, would not be surprised if Messy leads after 1H." L

Ducks vs Iowa +6.5
Best Iowa offense in their special eams and punt returns. Ducks O has underperformed against good compeition. If Ducks get to 23 to 27 can Iowa win game? He doesn't think so. "I want to take Iowa, I can't. Close win by Ducks." It was hard to tell what he thought re the line?

But See his "Giant Killers" below. He liked Iowa at +5.5 W

A&M vs Mizzu +7.5
If you listened you'd think he liked Aggies -7.5 IMO. He did say "low scoring game." He concluded with "Aggies win, take Mizzu plus the points." L

Other Games briefly discussed:

Wake vs VA -7
Wake won last 5 btw these two teams. "Wake will make it interesting."

FSU vs Clemson -2.5
"Clemson has not been good" Other comments made me think he leaned FSU

Cal vs Ville -20.5
Questions Cal's offense. He essentially echoed my preconceived bias this year as Cal being in my words a squirrelly team" to figure out. I heard no pick and I am through betting Cal myself

Florida vs KY +3.5
"Low scoring." He had a concern re Florida offense and loss of Wilson receiver for Florida.

LSU vs Bama - 11.5
He had lots of information. He is calling game and made no pick. Bama has won 5 of last 6 at home vs LSU. He is not normally a homer and did not think so here. But, he convinced me to take Bama at -10 whether he intended to or not.

Navy vs Notre Dame
"N.D. runs Navy out of the gym"

"Giant Killers" (3-2)

Tulane +6.5 (don't know his toughts re current line of +3.5. I took Memphis -3.5) W

MissSt +7.5 L

Mizzu +6.5 L

Iowa +5.5 (earlier grpahic was Iowa +6.5 and is the line at my local) W

Wake +7 W
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I had McElroy at 3-2 on his "picks" and 3-2 on his Giant Killers.

As I noted at the time, if you listened to his analysis of the A&M game it made no sense that he took Mizzu. I took Aggies based on his analysis and my lean.

Also, while he did not pick Bama, his analysis seemed to indicate a preference for Bama. It won.

He also nailed Notre Dame.

His bet of the week was Iowa
 
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