Post Season ~ 2021

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [8-4 +15.2u]
2021 - [129-120 +0.84u]

Saturday:

• 5/4.76 OKLAHOMA STATE -6 -105
• 5/3.23 Kent St -155
• 5/4.76 1H OKLAHOMA STATE u23-105
• 5/4.76 San Diego St -6 -105

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/3.96 ALABAMA +6½ -101
• 1.90/4 ALABAMA +210
• 4/3.48 1H ALABAMA / GEORGIA u24½ -115
• 5/5.15 CINCINNATI -10½ +103
• 4/3.74 1H CINCINNATI -6½ -107
• 4/3.81 HOUSTON / CINCINNATI UNDER 52½ -105

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

add
4/3.81 Michigan -12 -105

 

[mrpickem]

Saturday

• 5/5.00 ARMY -7 +100
• 4/3.64 NAVY TEAM TOTAL u13½ -110

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [0-2 -9u]
POSTSEASON [4-8 -19.08u]
2021 - [133-128 -18.24u]

Friday:

• 5/4.85 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +10½ -103
• 3/2.86 TOLEDO / MID TENNESSEE ST UNDER 49½ -105

Slow start to the post season, but today the bowls get started in earnest. I like Toledo as they had a very good year and their record should have been much better, however I do believe this line is simply too high. I think MTSU can keep this close with even a slim chance of winning so long as they keep the scoring down.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 5.50/5 Coastal Carolina Team Total OVER 37 -110

Not sure which UNI team shows up, but there's little doubt the Chanticleers will puts up points and lots of them.

 

[mrpickem]

• 5/3.85 Coastal Carolina. -7 -130 2nd Half

:tongueout2:

 

[mrpickem]

• 3/2.7 JAMES MADISON +4-111

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [3-2 +7.7u]
POSTSEASON [7-10 -11.38u]
2021 SEASON [136-130 -10.54u]

Saturday:

• 3/3.90 Western Kentucky +130
• 4.20/4 Appalachian State / Western Kentucky OVER 66½ -105
• 4/3.51 JACKSON STATE -10 -114
• 4.24/4 TEXAS EL-PASO (UTEP) +12 -106

 

[mrpickem]

rest of my day...

• 5/4.76 UAB +6 -105
• 5/4.76 Utah State +7 -105
• 5/4.76 UL Lafayette -4 -10
• 5/4.76 Marshall / UL Lafayette OVER 55½ -105
• 5/4.81 EASTERN MICHIGAN +9½ -104

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [7-2 +21.94u]
POSTSEASON [14-12 +10.56u]
2021 - [143-132 +11.4u]

Monday:

• 5/4.55 OLD DOMINION +9 -110
• 2.10/2 Tulsa / Old Dominion OVER 54½ -105
• 2/1.60 Tulsa / Old Dominion OVER 27 -125 1st Half

randoms...

I had a very nice day Saturday to get back in the green on the year, so just trying to finish the season strong.​

• ODU +9 ...The Golden Hurricane closed with wins in L3 but SU & ATS, including a 34-31 road win over SMU in the reg season finale, to earn this bowl. They're a 4-0 ATS in Bowl games off a win, and are on a 9-2 ATS vs the Sun Belt since '03. Tulsa is led by junior QB Davis Brin, who threw for nearly 3,000 yds w/16 TDs. The Hurricane was also 5-1 ATS this season vs teams w/winning record and are 8-0 ATS on turf over the last 2 seasons.. On the flip side, the Monarchs also came in hot, finishing with 5 straight wins SU & ATS after a 1-6 start to the season. They didn't play last year so presumably it took awhile to figure things out. Six previous teams have finished with 5 straight wins after 1-6 start and they proceeded to go 1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS in their bowl game. ODU did edge Eastern Michigan, 24-20, as +5 chalk in their only other Bowl appearance in 2016, but are still looking for their first win vs AAC opponents (0-2 all-time). All these thing contribute to the larger than called for spread we get. My model rates this one barely over 6 points on neutral field. Also I'm thinking the Monarchs get more fan support than the Golden Hurricane way down in Conway, SC.

 

[mrpickem]

Had WYO earlier today and though I posted it, but I guess not. Oh well it looks good but not over yet.

Night game...

• 3.12/3 UTSA +2½ -104
• 2/2.40 UTSA +120
• 3/2.50 San Diego State / UTSA OVER 24 -120 1st Half
• 2/2.20 UTSA +110 1st Half

 

[B.A.R.]

Had WYO earlier today and though I posted it, but I guess not. Oh well it looks good but not over yet.

Night game...

• 3.12/3 UTSA +2½ -104
• 2/2.40 UTSA +120
• 3/2.50 San Diego State / UTSA OVER 24 -120 1st Half
• 2/2.20 UTSA +110 1st Half

The pic above looks good, my o my.

 

[mrpickem]

I knew I posted it, it was in my NFL thread lol

 

[mrpickem]

The pic above looks good, my o my.

yep, she's well endowed with great ASSets

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [5-3 +3.7u]

POSTSEASON [19-17 +7.16u]
2021 - [148-137 +8u]

Thursday:

• 5/4.72 NORTH TEXAS +1 -106
• 5/4.76 MIAMI OHIO / NORTH TEXAS over 56½ -105
• 5/4.76 CENTRAL FLORIDA +7 -105

randoms...

• North Texas +1 & over 56½ ...Mean Green figured it out the last 5 weeks of the season on both sides of the ball. The defense was playing pretty well by the end of the season, but the fact they average the most plays per game in CFB will hurt their scoring numbers. Miami was efficient with 6.4 yards per play this season and put up just shy of 40 ppg in its last four. Backing the small dog in a shootout.
• UCF +7 ...seems like a good spot to back the underdog..in-state team from a smaller conference with a lot of fans in the stadium and Florida looked really checked out the second half of the season. Lot of players missing so kinda hard to tell how exactly it will play out, but probably be fairly close any way, gimme the 7

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [1-2 -5.24u]
POSTSEASON [20-19 +1.92u]
2021 - [148-137 +2.76u]

Saturday:

• 4.40/4 GEORGIA STATE -5½ -110
• 4/3.88 BALL STATE / GEORGIA STATE o51½ -103

randoms...

Ga State comes in riding high after winning 6 of last 7 with only loss at conference champ ULL. Ball State was lucky to make a bowl and bring one of the worse offenses(109th ranked in total off) of all bowl games. Drew Pitt is a decent QB though and should help them at least get 2-3 TDs and help out with the over, but very unlikely they can match GSU in points...38-20​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [2-0 +7.88u]
POSTSEASON [22-19 +9.8u]
2021 - [150-137 +10.64u]

Monday:

• 5/4.76 Nevada +7 -105

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [0-1 -5u]
POSTSEASON [22-20 +4.8u]
2021 - [150-138 +5.64u]
Tuesday:

• 5.10/5 AUBURN -2 -102
• 5.15/5 UCLA +2 -103
• 4.85/5 Air Force +103
• 5.25/5 NC State / UCLA OVER 59½ -105
• 5.25/5 Texas Tech +10 -105
• 6/5.71 Minnesota -5 -105

randoms...

• Minnesota -4.5 ...Golden Gophers head into the Guaranteed Rate Bowl with the #4 defense in all FBS, only allowing 284 yards per game. Mountaineers, on the other hand, come in 40th overall allowing 349 yards per game. Neither of these team's offenses are anything to write home about. WVU is 78th with 385 YPG & MIN is 99th with 360 YPG. WV will give MIN all their average yard gains, while struggling to reach their own YPG vs a more stout Gopher D. WV also will be without their top RB, Leddie Brown, who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Brown was responsible for an average of 18 carries per game this season, 4.8 yards per carry, 88 yards per game, and 1.08 TDs per game. His 13 TD's make up 34% of the Mountaineers Offensive TD's over the season. Sophomore Mathis Jr. will step in not having scored a single TD all year and facing the FBS's 9th best rushing defense. MIN also ranked 20th in YPP at 6.56 YPP & who's real bad at getting yards per pass...Jarret Doege, who only manages an average of 7.4 YPP. I think this becomes a defensive showcase for MIN as WV will struggle with Mathis Jr. getting the bulk on early downs...then Doege will fail to convert on 3rds with his low YPP average.

• W VIRGINIA 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
• W VIRGINIA 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) on a neutral field since 1992.
• W VIRGINIA 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in December since 1992.
• MINNESOTA 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on road games vs teams with losing record L3 seasons.

 

[AtlHawks]

Posted plays in the NFL section

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 4.40/4 Oklahoma -7 -110
• 4.20/4 Oregon / Oklahoma OVER 64 -105

Thursday

• 8.48/8 TENNESSEE -6 -106

Since this is one of my top Bowl plays and I see a strong possibility of this line moving, I'm on it tonight.

• Tennessee -6 ...Tennessee Volunteers head into Thursday's TransPerfect Music City Bowl in what might as well be a Home Bowl Game as it's being hosted in Nashville, Tennessee. Purdue will be relying on their 8th ranked Passing Offense to get any work done as they are the 4th worst in FBS on the ground with an average of 83.5 yards per game. However, even their passing game will take a hit because their best pass option, David Bell, has opted out of the Bowl Game. He was their Top Passing option in 8 of 12 games, and was responsible 30% of the Boilermakers Passing Yards this season & 20% of their Passing TDs. Bell has almost twice as many receptions as the next best receiver Milton Wright, who will have some big shoes to fill in this game. The Vols, on the other hand, have a two-dimensional offense at their disposal, and will have no problem getting success on their drives. On early downs, their 20th ranked Rushing Offense will get an opportunity to punch through the 61st ranked Rushing Defense in the Boilmakers. This job will be made easier for the Volunteers as Purdue is without their #1 Defensive End, George Karlaftis, who led their DE's in every defensive stat this season. When they need to go to the air, the Volunteers will raid with their 56th ranked Pass Offense that avg 247 YPG. The Boilers have the 21st ranked Pass-D, but success from the ground game on early downs combined with high conversion rates on 3rd and 4th will assist in Tennessee moving the chains and getting points on the board. Want proof that the Volunteers can fight against a good Pass D? Just take a look at the 332 passing yards and 2 TDs that the Volunteers were able to put up vs the #3 Pass D of Georgia. They accomplished that by converting 45% on 3rds and a 60% on 4ths. The Boilermakers will be much easier to score on than Georgia. Tenny has the edge on home-like turf in Nashville, they have an edge on Offense, and I believe their defense will be able to stand it's ground against Purdue's predictable passing offense. TEN is 4-1 ATS in their L5 against B10 schools, and Purdue chokes the spread going 2-6 ATS in their L8 Bowl Games.

 

[mrpickem]

CFB
I stupidly posted my plays yesterday in my NFL thread but I still went 7-0 :breakdance:

LAST - [7-0 +28.07u]
POSTSEASON [32-21 +43.48u]
2021 - [160-139 +44.32u]

Thursday:

• 4/3.81 North Carolina -10 -105
• 4.28/4 1H South Carolina / North Carolina UNDER 30 -107
• 4/3.81 South Carolina / North Carolina UNDER 57 -105
• 6/5.71 Wisconsin -6 -105
• 6.75/5 Michigan State -135

Parlay: Tennessee -200 1H, Wisconsin -205 1H, North Carolina -6 -118 1H​

​

Don't forget my POD Tennessee -6 from earlier post.

randoms...

• Michigan State -135 ...Spartans were one of the most improved teams from last year under Mel Tucker and I think he ends off his spectacular season with a bowl win. Pitts starting QB, Kenny Pickett, has opted out for this game to prepare for the draft. The backup is Nick Patti, who has thrown a total of 14 passes this year. He’s really only been in during garbage time, so he’s very inexperienced. He was a 3-star coming out of high school and this is his third year at Pitt, but there is a really small sample size to tell if he can play at this level. This is a huge hit to Pitt offense as 70% of their yards come from the pass and switching to a run game may not help either as Spart sports the 12th ranked run defense. The Spartans lost possibly the best RB in college football in Kenneth Walker, but it's arguable if the loss of Pickett is greater for Pitt than Walker is for the Spartans. Jalen Nailor returns for MSU, providing an offensive weapon to Payton Thorne and hopefully opening up space for Jayden Reed who is trying to prove himself heading into the draft. Ultimately, I trust this Spartans offense much more than a Pitt offense ran by a backup QB. The only issue I see here is MSU’s defense, which ranks dead last in defense against the pass, but then again, they are facing an inexperienced backup, so maybe this defense can trick Patti into causing some turnovers. There is a possibility that MSU’s defensive woes continue, but it’s hard to tell what Patti will do in this game. I’m gambling on the fact that this game is too big of a stage to get situated in and the Panther offense just won’t get rolling.
• Wisconsin -6 ...Badgers have won 7 of their last 8 and their defense has carried the load, ASU will be without their star RB and they've done most damage on the ground with him this season. This Wisconsin defense will show up, attack this Sun Devil run game and force them to throw the ball. While Whisky has a great defense, their offense struggles a lot. Graham Mertz is not a good QB and may throw more picks than TD’s. Allen is a strong RB, but if ASU can shut down the run game this game will likely be very close. However Herm Edwards' team after a decent start, finished a disappointing 8-4 losing 3 out of their last 6. Every loss this year was by 10+ while WIS finished the season strong even though they fell short of preseason expectations. Wisconsin is the more physical team overall and they are excellent against the run allowing less than 67 yards per game, even after facing some good run teams. Making things worse for ASU is the absence of White, who was the leading rusher and second leading receiver! Also out is DeaMonte Trayanum (backup RB) and the starting center(Dohnovan West). On defense, the Sun Devils will be without arguably their three best players: LB Darien Butler and CBs Chase Lucas and Jack Jones, who have all begun preparing for the 2022 NFL Draft.

1. WIS 12-5 ATS L17 on grass
2. ASU 12-3 ATS vs B10 conference since 1992.
3. ASU 0-8 ATS L8 Thursday games

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [2-4 -10.05u]
POSTSEASON [34-25 +33.43u]
2021 - [162-143 +34.27u]

Friday:

• 5/3.85 Wake Forest Team Total OVER 39½ -130
• 5/4.76 Central Michigan +7 -105
• 7/6.36 Cincinnati +14 -110
• 7/5.98 GEORGIA -7 -117 (B+½)
• 6/5.71 GEORGIA / MICHIGAN UNDER 45½ -105

randoms...

• GEORGIA -7 -117(bought half) and UNDER 45½ ...Harbaugh has lost 4 straight bowl games, and these struggles will continue vs this dominant Georgia defense. I think too much money is on Big Blue today. But even with Michigan is getting ~70% of the bets, the line has hardly moved since opening. This is for good reason, as the public are riding the high of Michigan’s Big Ten championship, while money players more likely back UGA to bounce back from SEC championship game setback. The Dawg defense right now is at its best against the run, holding their opponents to just 83.3 yards a game (2nd in fbs). Running the ball has been Harbaugh’s identity all year and they look to win games in the trenches. Michigan barely gets 50% of their yards through the air (110 in fbs). I don't believe Michigan has enough weapons on the outside to truly challenge the Dogs secondary vertically allowing them to commit to stopping the Michigan run game. If MI is unable to adjust in game, they will likely get pummeled and it will not be close. When they do decide to air it out, Cade McNamara, who is just in the middle of current fbs QBR ratings at 145, will be no comparison to Heisman winner Bryce Young who taught Georgia all they needed to know about their weaknesses. The identity of running the football and inexperience Cade has at seriously throwing it will not match up well with this Georgia defensive juggernaut. Sorry Jim...better luck next year. The MI defense looks amazing however they are built more on being disruptive and causing havoc as this is not a defense that just lines up and beats you down. Georgia is a terrible matchup for them, in fact MI matches up much better with Bama IMO. Georgia is gonna line up and make Michigan go toe to toe with them every down and eventually the Michigan defense will break. I see UGA out to an early lead and then just grinding Michigan down the rest of the game. These teams are very similar just Georgia is way more talented.
  
• Wake Forrest Team Total OVER 39½ -130

• Wake Forrest was meant to play Texas A&M (7th ranked defense) until COVID opt outs. Rutgers has not played a game since Nov 27th and playing the bowl game short notice against a team that was in bowl prep for TAMU.
• Rutgers defense ranks 77th, WF ranks 5th in scoring (41.2 ppg)
• Demon Deacons have scored 40+ in 8/13 games this season and are looking to tie the program season wins record
• WF has an explosive offense but a very mediocre defense, giving up 423 ypg and 30 ppg

• Cincinnati +14

• Alabama without #1 receiver Metchie and Cincinnati have a great secondary with All-Americans Gardner and Coby Bryant. Bearcats allowed only 10 passing TDs this year and ranked #1 in pass efficiency defense.
• Cincinnati 5-0 ATS as an underdog, including last year’s bowl game vs Georgia
• Bama has struggled in some bigger close scoring games this year (LSU, Auburn, Arkansas) and have shown they can be vulnerable
• Alabama is a different monster in playoff games but think the Bearcats are being written off here and like the double digit spreads
• Also considering: Cincinnati 1Q +5.5, Alabama Team Total u35.5
• ALABAMA 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a conference game L3 seasons
• CINCINNATI 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) on turf L3 seasons
• CINCINNATI 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs team with a winning record this season

Cincy actually has the players to match Bama physically in the trenches, have an NFL caliber dual threat quarterback that is probably good enough to have success against Bama's defense, and they're a strong defensive team themselves. They should have won outright against Georgia in last year's bowl games and Georgia needed a 4th quarter comeback to prevent it. If they play to the best of their ability, they should cover this spread easily with a small chance at SU win. Can't get stuck judging a game based on single previous games.​

​

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 6/5.66 2H WAKE FOREST -4½ -106

​

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [4-2 +10.11u]
POSTSEASON [38-27 +43.54u]

2021 - [166-145 +44.38u]

Saturday:

• 5.55/5 Oklahoma State +1 -111
• 5.25/5 Arkansas -3 -105
• 5.25/5 Kentucky -3 -105
• 5.15/5 Kentucky / Iowa OVER 44 -103
• 5.25/5 Utah / Ohio State UNDER 64 -105

3.5/19.6 Parlay: Kentucky -2½ -125 ,Utah / Ohio State UNDER 64 ,Utah +4 -110​

randoms...

Kentucky -3

Passing:

• Kentucky 71st with 225 YPG & 23 TDs vs Iowa 43rd Pass D allowing 213 YPG & 15 TDs
• Iowa 110th with 117 YPG & 11 TDs vs Kentucky 52nd Pass D allowing 219 YPG & 19 TDs
• Kentucky 36th in Passing Eff. (149) vs Iowa 4th Pass D Eff. (109)
• Iowa 3rd in Turnover Margin (+13) vs Kentucky 128th in Turnover Margin (-13)

Both of these teams have above average passing D. Kentucky will be better at getting the ball downfield to score, but they will need to do so with much caution as Iowa is dangerous with a high turnover margin, plus KY tends to turn the ball over a lot with one of the worst turnover margins in FBS. Not sure who is starting QB for Iowa, QB1 or QB2 while the Wildcats dual-threat Will Levis knows he has the job, and is ready to get out there and show Iowa the power of his passing efficiency.

Rushing:

• Kentucky 24th with 206 YPG & 26 TDs vs 13th Rush D of Iowa allowing 113 YPG and 14 TDs
• Iowa 111th with 119 YPG & 17 TDs vs 17th Rush D of Kentucky allowing 117 YPG and 11 TDs

Both teams have excellent run D, but the edge is with Kentucky. KY will meet resistance from Iowa, but their run game should get the job done enough when needed. Iowa will stuggle to run the ball especially without their top RB, Tyler Goodsen, who has opted out of the game.

Scoring and Time of Possession:

• Kentucky 34th Scoring Offense with 32 PPG vs 13th Scoring Defense of Iowa allowing 19 PPG
• Iowa 95th Scoring Offense with 23 PPG vs 31st Scoring Defense of Kentucky allowing 22 PPG
• Kentucky 14th in Time of Possession (32:00) vs Iowa 42nd in ToP (30:00)
• Kentucky 20th in Total Offense with 431 YPG vs Iowa's 16th in Total D with 326 YPG
• Iowa 123rd in Total Offense with 297 YPG vs Kentucky's 24th in Total D with 336 YPG
• Iowa 7th in Defensive TDs (4) ; Kentucky 12th in Defensive TDs (3)

Both teams have excellent D's and this is evident in their scoring defenses this season, ranking 13th and 31st respectively. However, in the L7 games Iowa's D broke-down a little as they allowed 24 PPG for those seven games. That trend is not what you want to see when the offensive scoring power of each team is separated by 61 ranks, in favor of Kentucky. As long as Kentucky can get a grip on their tendency to turn the ball over, and use their run game to control time of possession, the Cats should have no problem winning today.

Other Standout Stats:

• Kentucky 5th in 3rd Down Conversions (.511%)
• Kentucky 3rd in 4th Down Conversion Defense (.294%)
• Iowa 4th in Fewest Penalties per Game (4.08) ; Kentucky 23rd in Fewest Penalties/pg (5)
• Kentucky 18th in Fewest First Downs Allowed (222)
• Kentucky 16th in Tackles for a Loss Yards Allowed (4.17)

These defenses will be able to keep the game close by creating opportunities for their offenses. & KY certainly has an edge on offense & in a game of defenses that offensive edge will likely be be the 'X Factor'.

• Ohio State / Utah: Under 64 ...Utah, winners of the Pac-12 for first time since joining the conference back in 2011, was rewarded for their dominant win over Oregon with a trip to their first Rose Bowl against an Ohio State team that is undoubtedly more talented but has plenty of question marks. The spread here (currently at OSU -4) is tricky, but I do like under 64. A red flag for Ohio State’s offense is that they will be without two star receivers, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who combined for 1,994 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns. Plus, OSU will be without one starting tackle and O-Line leader Nicholas Petit-Frere. Their offense is a powerhouse, but some big pieces will be missing and inexperience might hurt them. Utah’s D brings one of the best D-lines in the country, racking up 41 sacks on the season (t-5th in the country) and allowing only 3.56 yards per carry. They haven’t faced any lines as talented as Ohio State’s, but their sheer dominance of their conference’s most talented o-line in Oregon proves that they can compete with the big dogs. They’re quite comparable to Michigan’s physicality in the trenches, which we saw give the Buckeyes big problems at full strength. While Utah might surprise some with their D, I’m not sure that they are ready for the challenge that Ohio State’s defense will pose for them. Utah’s bread and butter is running the ball, but that won’t be easy vs OSU’s top-20 (118.5 ypg, 3.52 ypc) run D. QB Chris Rising is efficient but lacks the ability to throw downfield and is without big playmakers at WR that other teams have used to exploit OSU’s weaker secondary at times. Yes, these are two high-scoring teams in general, their strengths would seem to cancel each other out in many respects and I think this game will turn into a lower-scoring game than many imagine despite Utah’s ability to run the ball and OSU’s dynamic scoring attack. Smart money is usually on the under, and I think that is definitely the case here. In short, I like the under considering the star power missing for OSU and their possible lack of motivation to be in this game, as well as their d-line’s ability to neutralize Utah’s rushing attack and force them to throw the ball. 64 is a tall number, and I just don’t see it tonight in the Rose.
  
• Arkansas -3 ...I like Arkansas here because Penn St has key components missing. Their D-coordinator jumped ship for a job at VT. They've lost their top two LBs(top two leading tacklers), team captain strong safety, and their top wide receiver Jahan Dotson all due to opt outs preparing for the draft. Their pass D is ranked 34th in the FBS while the rush defense is 42nd. Penn State ranks 83rd overall with an average of 26.3 points. These numbers are greatly effected by the key players who will be missing. Penn St. run game has been garbage all season long, avg. 107 yds/game. They relied heavily on the pass, and with top WR out, offense will be hard to come by. Arky bread and butter is the run game with Sam Pittman calling the plays, I can see him running through this depleted Penn St. squad, especially with a dual threat QB like KJ Jefferson. Jefferson is having a tremendous season and even tallied over 300 yards in the tough defeat vs Alabama and has gone six straight games without a pick. Jefferson has 2578 passing yards and a 21:3 TD to INT ratio.
• Oklahoma St +1...Both teams have been great all year but I like OSU in this spot. They lost to ISU who always plays them tough and lost by less than a yard to Baylor. For Notre Dame, Brian Kelly left for LSU and Kyren Williams, their top RB, won’t be playing. I expect ND to struggle against one of the top defensive lines in the nation. With no ground game to speak of for ND, Okie State will be tempted to send just three or four rushers to create pressure. Kyle Hamilton has been as big of a loss on the defense as Williams has been on offense for ND. The Irish covered in the regular-season finale against Stanford, but the Cardinal had multiple explosive drives and posted more than 170 passing yards with a depleted roster. OSU’s ability to force three-down drives and post a top-10 rate against explosiveness in passing downs will be enough to allow Sanders to make enough plays for an outright victory. Plus the Irish have appeared in 7 New Year bowl games since 2000 and they’ve lost them all.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 5.15/4.6 Mississippi +1 -112

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [2-3-1 -5.55u]
POSTSEASON [40-30 +37.99u]
SEASON - [168-148 +38.83u]

Tuesday:

• 5/4.95 KANSAS STATE -7½ -101
• 4/3.88 LSU / KANSAS STATE UNDER 47 -103

randoms...

• KANSAS STATE -7½ ...LSU QB1 & RB1 have opted out. The QB2 is "?" as well. K-State QB Skylar Thompson(1844 yds, 9 TD, 4 IND w/154 Rating) wants to make a statement today after returning from injury. Coach Orgeron is gone after this game so it's hard to see the LSU players getting up for this oh-by-the-way bowl. Run game definitely favors KSU. Deuce Vaughn is a stud and he's certainly going to be eager to perform for the Wildcats in his first career Bowl Game. On the other side, LSUs David-Price has opted out for the NFL Draft, leaving RB2 Corey Kiner to run the ball for the Tigers. LSU would hold the edge in passing, but with their QB1 moving over to Texas A&M, these passing stats mean almost nothing. The QB2 is freshman Garret Nussmeier, whose only thrown 59 passes all year with an average QBR of 32 & he may not even start in order to reserve his red shirt status. That leaves QB3, Taivon Faulk more likely to get the start. Faulk is also a freshman and hasn't thrown a single pass in the FBS. With that in mind, you have to give the edge in passing to KSU as well. Both teams bring above average defenses to face less than stellar offenses. Wish I would have bet earlier and got a better line, but I doubt it matters tonight as I only see one team showing up motivated.

 

[mrpickem]

LAST - [2-3-1 -5.55u]
POSTSEASON [40-30 +37.99u]
SEASON - [168-148 +38.83u]

Monday:

• 6/5.71 Alabama +3 -105
• 5/6.75 Alabama +135
• 5.20/5 ALABAMA / GEORGIA UNDER 53 -104
• 5/4.76 OVER o16½ -105 | TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY STETSON BENNETT
• 5/4.55 OVER o14½ -110 | TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY BRYCE YOUNG

randoms...

• Alabama +3 & +135 ...Trying to wade through the sea of superlatives that defined these teams in 2021 is impossible. So, to simplify things and start at the top. First and foremost, it's hard to fade the Tide when they’re getting points. Think about this: over the last 158 games, Alabama closed as a lined underdog ONCE, against Georgia, and Bama won outright. Then there’s Tide HC Nick Saban – the Nicktator, the Sabinator – whose standards of excellence and results on the field have equaled those of the god-like Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant (Nick’s college coaching tree boasts 21 assistants that went on to secure a head coaching position). Even though he’s doing AFLAC commercials with Deion Sanders lately, we think he secretly longs to be the spokesman for d-CON after becoming the first FBS coach in history to win three conference championship games as an underdog when the Tide beat the Dawgs, 41-24, as 6.5-points pups two games ago. Afterward, Saban confessed to the media that his players used their rare underdog status as motivation. “You guys gave us a lot of really positive rat poison,” he said. “The rat poison that you usually give us is fatal. The rat poison that you put out there this week was yummy.” And what about Alabama’s resumé? Six nattys since 2009 (including two without winning the SEC) and 14 consecutive 10-win seasons, plus this will be its 9th title game appearance in 13 seasons. Whew! While Georgia can’t match that level of success, head coach Kirby Smart (a previous Saban assistant) has put together a UGA team that can go toe-to-toe with the Tide tonight, and finally get that elephant-sized Mouse off their backs. The Dawgs shook off their loss to Bama by treating Michigan like they had every other team in 2021, delivering a one-sided smackdown of the Wolverines in the Orange Bowl’s semifinal matchup, and giving hope to Georgia fans that they’ve got their mojo back just in time. In the words of Jaybird The Bulldog, our SEC Scout, “Georgia may NEVER have a better opportunity to beat these guys for years to come, so the Dawgs can’t let this slip away.” Before December’s SEC title game loss to the Tide, Georgia’s defense was virtually impenetrable. Considering Saban’s crew scored more points in the second quarter of the SEC Final (24) than the Dawgs had allowed in any game this season, the defense will need no further incentive to hit the field breathing fire. But Bama has a defense, too, holding unbeaten Cincy to 6 points and 284 total yards in the Tide’s semifinal win – their 8th game this season in which the Tide managed to hold an opponent to season-low yardage. The offenses are very evenly matched, as well, with the loss of key WR John Metchie negating Alabama’s QB edge with Heisman winner Bryce Young over UGA’s Stetson Bennett. Just when things are looking more and more like a stalemate, our mean machine comes to the rescue with these gems. Saint Nick stands 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS against former coaches by an average margin of victory of 23.8 PPG, including 4-0 SU vs Smart by an average margin of victory of 11 PPG. He’s also a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS as a dog coming off four or more wins in a row – the same role in which he knocked off Georgia in the SEC title game last month. In addition, the Dawgs had better not let the Tide take a double-digit lead in this contest as Alabama is 60-0 SU in games when leading by 10 or more points (the longest streak in the nation). The favorite in CFP championship games shows no real advantage, going 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS all-time, including 0-3 ATS when not undefeated. Bad role for Georgia, too, as the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or fewer points when not coming off consecutive SU & ATS wins and facing foes coming off a SU & ATS win. We could go back-and-forth all day, but the bottom line, How can one pass up an opportunity to back the No. 1 ranked team in the nation as a dog in the biggest game of the season. Look for the Tide to have their cake and eat it, too, as they kill off the hopes and dreams of yet another wannabe champion.

But perhaps the real reason to stick with BAMA, is because their dancers don't wear shorts under their skirts...​