Playoffs

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Finally we have reached the playoffs...time to crush :glove:

  • 952 Chicago Cubs -123
  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Under 8 -110
Better lineup and even though I give Chacin the pitcher edge, hitting, scoring, defense and bully all favor cubs. Would have gave add to Chi for manager too...but lately I'm just not sure as Madden has made some questionable calls to say the least and Counsel has matured quickly and become formidable

this trend applies at 75% winner for 42.5% ROI in playoffs...
fade away team when line within 40 cents of flat, batting avg <= .255 and facing starter w/era 3.70-4.20

f0128a9c-a7d4-4934-8101-2f810727d11c.png


smaller sample for playoffs but if you take just reg season, same query link
Code:
AC and 140 >= line >= -140 and hits / at bats <= .255 and 3.7 <= o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and league = NL and playoffs = 0          
SU:  283-536 (-1.29, 34.6%)        avg line: 105.4 / -115.5      on / against: -$25,344  / +$21,872      ROI:  -28.9% / +22.4%      
RL:  291-381 (-0.79, 43.3%)        avg line: -145.4 / 129.3      on / against: -$25,214  / +$20,835      ROI:  -23.7% / +26.4%  
OU:  231-554-35 (-1.48, 29.4%)     avg total: 8.2       over / under: -$37,296  / +$30,133      ROI:  -41.5% / +33.2%
 
3-2 so far

really want to back A's tonight but liam hendrik, wtf am I missing here...committee pitching?

will have to ponder this awhile

1c5cec70-78c1-4c84-b438-840e6e698eee.png
 
Severino 6-6 since break, but 5-2 last 7 and has pitched better down stretch although he was shelled 8-2 at Oak Sep 5

overall he has been respectable 28-17 in 2nd half for his career(only 2-2 in playoffs lifetime)
74ea4f3d-1f2a-4519-8708-681a9ea8f8ce.png
 
Yes, the A's are bullpenning. Also I wouldn't be surprised to see Severino with a short leash if he gets into trouble and they go right to Happ.
 
Yes, the A's are bullpenning. Also I wouldn't be surprised to see Severino with a short leash if he gets into trouble and they go right to Happ.

Dont understand why they're not going with Fiers on 4...he only threw 53 pitches on 28th

I expect more from 15 yr vet and 2-time manager of the year Melvin
 
Their cast of characters out of the pen are very good and can maybe keep the Yanks really off balance. I guess that's the idea. And if the A's put together a lead they can always bring in Fiers as well.
 
no play yet but still slight lean oak. Seen prop Oak wins by 1-2 at +350 and thought may be value there

from db

New York won 100 games and set a record for most home runs during the regular season (267) despite being without slugger Aaron Judge for 50 games, but knows none of that matters now. "I view that pressure as a privilege, and we'll all embrace that and look to apply that to our opponent," Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters of the one-game playoff. "Yeah, we've had a great season to this point, but that's now behind us, and the real season starts now. Our guys will be ready, and I look forward to watching them go out and do their thing (Wednesday) night." The Athletics will eschew a traditional starter against that powerful New York lineup and will instead turn the game over to the bullpen, with Liam Hendricks serving as "opener" opposite Yankees ace Luis Severino. "Part of potentially doing it this way is you're going to have to make some adjustments on the fly," Oakland manager Bob Melvin told reporters. "You can look at it and draw it out how you think it's going to go. Very rarely does it go exactly the way you think."

TV: 8:08 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Liam Hendricks (0-1, 4.13 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39)

Hendricks made eight of his 25 appearances as a starter and posted a 2.08 ERA in that role over a total of 8 2/3 innings. "Same as any other game," Hendricks told reporters. "I'm taking it the same way, warming up the same as I do, trying to keep it as much as a relief appearance as I can. All it means is I'm relieving in the first inning." Oakland will carry 11 pitchers for the game and is considering using All-Star closer Blake Treinen (9-2, 0.78 ERA, 38 saves) for multiple innings.

Severino is getting a chance to start the wild card game for a second straight season and is hoping for a better showing than 2017, when he served up a pair of home runs and was charged with three runs on four hits in one-third of an inning. "It means that they trust me," Severino told reporters. "They know that I can be good, that I can be better. I mean, you guys know me; I can have trouble, and the next start I can be good. If something bad happens, it happens at that time, I just get over it and keep working and get better." Severino was ripped for six runs (five earned) on six hits and a walk in 2 2/3 innings at Oakland on Sept. 5.

WALK-OFFS

1. Yankees 1B Luke Voit finished the regular season strong and was named the AL player of the week after hitting .458 with three homers and eight RBIs in his last six games.

2. Athletics DH Khris Davis led the majors with 48 home runs while batting .247 for the fourth consecutive season.

3. Oakland, which went 3-3 against New York during the regular season, is in the playoffs for the first time since losing the wild card game 9-8 in 12 innings to the Kansas City Royals in 2014.

PREDICTION: Athletics 4, Yankees 3
 
yanks may be be right side but damn if i'm laying 195 vs this team...call it value play

  • 2004 OAK/NYY no score 1st inn -125 .625/.5
  • 2009 OAK wins by exactly 1 run +583 .1/.583
  • 2011 OAK wins by exactly 2 runs +765 .1/.765
  • 939 Oakland Athletics +185 1/1.85
 
Love Braves and Folty, but Ryu is fresher starter after missing 2 months mid season, and he has been dealing lately. Folty has been slipping a bit but I do expect him to show up and pitch well, hence the under. Bugt LAD should prevail with better lineup + fresher/better starter.

  • 904 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -131 low scoring game may bite me here, but didn't like 175 chalk
  • 903 Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 +103
 
6-2 so far
..but 0-4 on props :enragedsmile:

Big Friday likely best day of playoffs as we have games all day.

Leaning Houston despite JV struggles

Here's 1 query I seen over 5 years that returns 19% ROI
View attachment 35028
 
  • 908 Houston Astros -1½ +145
  • 908 Houston Astros -151
  • 907 Cleveland Indians/Houston Astros Under 3½ -113 for 1st 5 Innings
Definitely leaning all favs today...danger danger :embarassed:

randoms...

friday records 2018
MIL 19-8
NYY 16-10
LAD 15-10
HOU 16-11
COL 16-11
BOS 13-13
CLE 11-15
ATL 10-17


home record since Jul 1
BOS 29-12
MIL 28-13
LAD 24-14
HOU 21-18


road record since Jul 1
CLE 25-15
ATL 23-18
NYY 24-19
COL 19-19


record vs lefty 2018
NYY 30-14
MIL 24-19
BOS 21-16
ATL 21-27


today's starters 2018 MONEY
CHACIN 23-12 +10.7U
HAPP 21-10 +5.4U
SANCHEZ 13-11 +3.7U
SALE 18-9 -1.4U
KLUBER 21-12 -1.9U
KERSHAW 16-10 -4U
ANDERSON 12-20 -9.6U
VERLANDER 21-13 -10U



Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

CHACIN, SANCHEZ, SALE, HAPP

 
here's a profitable angle for doyers...plus braves have not fared well vs lefties

basically big fav 175-250 with starter who walks 1.7 or less per start vs starter who had good outting last time out(less than 3 runs) in NL only
d0444149-db42-4e1a-a0c9-f9f490587134.png
 
Gonna lay off Sox, even consedered taking Yanks...played no no 1st inn only

  • 7004 NYY/BOS no score 1st inn -125
 
yesterday 5-2 and 1-1 props with hou series pending
2018 playoffs 11-4
Playoff props 1-5

I knew the Sox and Doyers were the plays, but got scared off by chalk. Still a good day :cheers3:

Today's card:

View attachment 35068

...like a broken record, should be stros and sox again
 
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randoms...

saturday records 2018
NYY 21-7
HOU 19-9
BOS 19-9
CLE 12-14

sunday records 2018
ATL 17-7
LAD 19-8
COL 12-14
MIL 10-16

home record since Jul 1
COL 32-12
BOS 30-12
HOU 22-18
ATL 20-21

road record since Jul 1
CLE 25-16
LAD 26-18
NYY 24-20
MIL 21-20

record vs lefty 2018
NYY 30-15
COL 34-27

today's starters 2018 MONEY

View attachment 35069

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

PRICE
 
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Damn if I know why line has dropped, but I'm not seeing it. Better start, bats, defense and way better pen

  • 8004 CLE/HOU no score 1st inn -135
  • 952 Houston Astros -135
  • 951 Cleveland Indians/Houston Astros Under 7½ -117
 
Prob. the fact that People are betting Cleveland to even the series at 1-1...so my guess is more money on Cleveland at this time.
 
huh....interesting...oh well...i tailed ya...except for the O/U, which I took the Over. Cole hasn't been perfect and I'm expect him to be over amped and groove a few FBs.
 
huh....interesting...oh well...i tailed ya...except for the O/U, which I took the Over. Cole hasn't been perfect and I'm expect him to be over amped and groove a few FBs.

Good luck! :shake:

Unders typically good in post season and are 12-6-2 so far this year

Edit: Scratch that, it's half that...that counts each game twice..so 6-3-1

d994a481-8290-49c4-9183-36d7816dc1cd.png
 
cant believe yankee-fan has bet them to favorites...makes no sense at all

  • 954 Boston Red Sox +115
  • 954 Boston Red Sox +104 First 5 innings
WAR REDSOX
 
cant believe yankee-fan has bet them to favorites...makes no sense at all

  • 954 Boston Red Sox +115
  • 954 Boston Red Sox +104 First 5 innings
WAR REDSOX


Well maybe something was up with Price...something maybe we missed? I know Price doesn't have a great record against the Yankees, but he did pitch well against them the last time out i recall.
 
Would lean under..may still take some. Cool weather and both starter have been solid...mostly
 
Eovaldi has only gave up 3 runs in last 5 starts (1.35 era) including 6 scoreless inn vs NYY 9/18
BOS 10-2 on Mondays, best in baseball while Yanks 10-9
BOS 23-14 on road since July 1(2ns only to HOU)
NYY 24-16 @home since Jul 1


View attachment 35131
27 times this year BOS was a dog and total went
over 18-9 and 9-2 last 11
Sox get home field back tonight in apple

  • 913 Boston Red Sox +153
  • 913 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 8½ +108
  • 1806 Boston Red Sox (Series) +125
 
SUNDAY 1-1 (1-0 series)
MONDAY 2-0
2018 Playoffs 16-7 (2-5 props, 1-0 series)

Probably be on sox again today as most things I see point that way

Tuesday NYY 19-5 - BOS 15-9
home sine 7/1 - NYY 24-17
away since 7/1 - BOS 24-14

today's starters 2018 MONEY
Porcello 22-11 +8.2U
CC 16-13 -5.6U

Porcello 1er, 17k, 1bb in 18inn vs NY this year
CC 11inn 5er 15h 10k 1bb vs BOS this year

Sox hit lefties a little better

Last 7 games BOS avg 8.2 runs and hitting .301 while still leaving avg 7.7 runners on base

Looks like HOU/BOS are destined to meet...and it's gonna be a fight!

7yC1JAU.jpg
 
Angel Hernandez behind the plate. God help us all.

CC immaculate with Angel in 30+ innings, Porcello somehow has never seen him.
 
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