Playoffs

Damn why didnt I just play this Under....

No interest in this game further..they are giving Colts backers a nice middle but damn we should see at least 20 something pts on the board for us now. Which in itself is scary cause we are letting KC hangaround..however KC defense has played a ton so far...eventually they will wear down...
 
How bout this insane line...what was Indy ML -280 ish?? Right now you would have to take Indy +9 @ -1050!!! while KC is +790....you alwyas get great value when shutouts are involved but this is insane
 
Well I had that game pegged very well unfortunately I walked away to lite in the pocket. Should have been on the Under 50.5 since that was my original play on the game especially off a shootout for KC. As well as the Indy line being soft I should have played some more on it...Tough to nail it the proper way when I have been so focused on Dallas. A solid start nonetheless.!

SportsNut said:
Saturday :

Colts -6.5 -120 {5units} Win 23-8 {+5.00}
Under 22 -108 KC team {2unit} Win 8 pts {+2.00}

All I have heard about is the KC running game against the Colts run defense. Well if you read back I have pointed out that Indy at home is not as bad as advertised on defense and it will also have Bob Sanders in the mix. As well as LJ having just 4 road TDS and some avg numbers. They keep saying 171 yds allowed well only 2 teams cracked that barrier @ the RCA Dome and they were Tenny and Jax who managed 13 and 14 pts. I continue to say that rushing yards dont mean pts and to win vs Indy you need points. Hell the Jags perfectly executed their gameplan earlier hogged the clock and lost by a TD. Not to mention what happens if Indy strikes early? Or the fact that KC's QB play is so poor Trent Green is on a short leash. Great job by Herm instilling confidence. I am sure what you want is a rusty QB coming in the game. How bout KC's 3-5 away record? We gonna overlook that as well since Indy is 8-0. They won by 3 in Zona , Oakland and STL....they face a team quality wise like Indy in the Chargers and manage a 20-9 loss. Basically if KC doesnt win why would you be backing the Cheifs? Hoping they lose by 3, 4,5,6 pts??? Back in 2003 a better KC team couldnt beat Indy and KC so invincible at home in Dec lost once and almost lost again..

Bottomline is Indy is playoff tested ( and peyton has overcome his one flaw winning @ Foxboro) and much more focused this time around not having James Dungy's death hovering over them. Now its about football. I see no reason why this line is less then 9 points. Look at the tough road venues KC played at SD lost 20-9 , Pitt lost something like 45-7 and Den lost 9-6...they didnt even crack 10 pts...All the Cheifs are a team who has backed into the playoffs after some luck.....they are old in the secondary and wont get to rush the QB...Manning will be his best...look at what he has done in every big game this season...

Have to saythe Under looks attractive but not interested yet.


The Nite cap...what more can I add....it all starts with bad line...

Dallas Cowboys
+3 -108 {5units}
+3.5 -120 {8units}
ML +139 {5units}

Over 22.5 -116 Dallas team {3units}
Lean: over 47 Dal and under 51 -110 Indy

Extras:

Cowboys +9 / Indy -1 {wins} {3unit teaser}
Cowboys ML +130 / Indy -286 {wins} {3unit ML parlay}
Cowboys +12.5 / Indy +3 {wins} / NE +2 {3units}
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Fucking Bullshit Game!

:moose:

Got absolutely screwed without vaseline on that Dallas ML. Un fucking believable! I know it was even worse for you, sorry. We were both about to have a great day, and that shit happens. I at least am up 3 units, but still am fuming here. I already played the Pats and the Giants in my fuming rage! I have the Pats -8.5 -103 for 3 units and the Giants +7 -105 for 2 units.

What a joke! I hate when I lose games like this, it just seems I have more luck go against me than for me. I know sometimes it evens out, but I just haven't seen it. This is at least the 3rd game that screwed me in the last couple of weeks with crazy shit.
 
Sportsnut-Good job capping the KC/INDY game you had it nailed!!

Good luck sunday.
 
Well couldnt shake my hangover after a long nite and then couldnt remember my damn password. Wasnt home and didnt have my laptop either . So it was just a shit show trying to attempt to post my thoughts. I really didnt even touch the NE/NYJ game{2units}. Had a small play on the Pats and that was it. Actually felt of all the lines this game was the tightest on both sides. With the NYG I had played some @ +7.5 earlier in the week and played some more at +7 today. As I said this line was way high with the only scare point being Phillys little run. However thats how they got away with the high line which was soldified by the amount of backers willing to lay 6.5/7 pts when it probably should have been -4. Like I continue to say bad lines or fat lines always lose. The good was I had all 4 sides correct from the get go. ...As for the total played 1st H under ,2nd H under and game under basically doing what I said from the start. Would have been nice to chat about the games but really was in no state to be offering advice to people looking to wager.

So some might think I am pissed about the Dallas game but honestly I am okay with it. Obviously extremely disappointed in alot of things. The bright side is I feel like I had everything covered in that game. This is still gambling and there is risk & luck involved. They play the games for a reason. Its like Texas Hold'em you do the best to get the odds in your favor based on your decision making and over the long run it should even out. This was 1 game of many. Its funny if you look back you will see how I said I am pussy and fear playing solely the ML. One of the rare times lacking balls helped. From the minute that line was published till it ended I had about a 99.9% feeling Dallas would cover +3 pts. Personally I think Dallas played awful and specifically Romo. Though the defense played fairly well except for maybe 1 or 2 plays maybe some holding penalties. The guy was nervous which is understanadble to a degree but he never shook it. Which is why he mishandled the snap IMO. Seattle played as well as it could possibly play and mustered a 1 pt win. Every score they had started with great field position. I never doubted they would bring an A effort only that even a B effort from Dallas could get it done. There offense wasnt very impressive outside of Stevans. Hasselback under pressure looked like a ballroom dancer or something , twisting and spinning backwards...

Just a sloppy game all around from the Boys and I will admit to get a kickoff run for a TD after allowing a score is somewhat lucky. It also seemed to suggest that Dallas was gonna win this game cause Seattle couldnt make the crucial play...there was already the 1st H late TD. Romo was very inaccurate and that lob pass to Terrell Owens was basically the great indicator of what was going on. He throws the ball behind Owens and he had Glenn wide open Over the top so to speak....I didnt like much about Dallas playcalling all nite...WR screen from the 1? Smells like arrogance to me. Which I just never get..not respecting your opponent. Its not like Seattle did anything to force that turnover it just happened. Why not work on chewing clock and regaining field position at that point. There was no need persay to make a play at that time and move the chains should have been the goal.

Thats really it Dallas +3 was a fat line and it paid for us. The Hawks never really did much better then push the game. Its funny watching the game I said SEA had no chance of making the 2 pt conversion cause tehyw ere just not gonna be leading by 3 late. After the long run dont know what Dallas was thinking as they seemed to lack aggression to punch in a score.

Obviously really sucks that the ML didnt hit cause for me it was 10 unit swing on the ML play , a 9 unit swing on the parlay and 6.5 unit swing on the team total....so yeah that botched snapped probably cost me 26 units...the good is I had I think abou +15 units anyway on what I posted and took in another 10-12 units today anyway....it just wasnt the homerun it was supposed to be . The way I saw it was in spite of all the sloppy plays Dallas should have still won but I cant exactly say they deserved to win cause they were inconsistent.

We still have another week of more NFL to decipher. Hope it worked out well for everyone. Just dont let it get to ya...
 
SportsNut We Need to Talk About This Weekend's Plays

I agreed with all of your picks as I felt the same way, and yes I got screwed by the Dallas ML. I share all of your sentiments, good postgame writeup. I should have put half on Dallas + the points and half on the ML, oh well. Still a profitable NFL weekend.


Was curious what your thoughts were on this weekend's card. Here are my initial takes.

Baltimore/Indy

Liking Indy here, as I thought the line should have been 3.5 Thinking about putting 1.5 units on the points and the ML. I think Indy finds a way to win this game.

I think the total is about right, and I like the side too much to fool around with the total

Seattle/Chicago

I lean Seattle, but not sure I really want to put money on a crap Hawks team.

The play in this game is the over. I can't believe it is at 37 right now. A horrible Seattle defense, which I think Chicago will expose with Sexy Rexy making some deep throws and big plays. I also think Sexy Rexy throws a pick or two.

I also think this under is set based on the Bears defense of last year. Bears defense is not as good, especially now with Tommie Harris out. This game should go over. Don't have a score projection yet, but total seems too low

New England/San Diego

Thought this line should have been Chargers -6, initially was liking the Chargers but the more I thought about it, liking the Pats +5.

You have a young San Diego team vs. a veteran playoff team in New England with the master game planner in Belichick. I also don't like the fact the Chargers haven't been in many close games, which I think this game will be close. Further, I think this game comes down to Rivers being able to beat the Patriots.

So in the end think taking the points with the coaching edge, playoff experience, and about even teams.........gotta take the Pats and the points.

I think the Under is worth a look here as I expect a close and lower scoring game than people think. I think both teams will try and get the run game going and rely on strong defenses that they have.

Philadelphia/New Orleans

I like the Eagles getting points here. I will take the points with the better defense facing a young team that relies on offense, that had a week off. There could be a little rust there, and think the Eagles will be able to get pressure on Brees and limit the big plays. The Saints torched the Cowboys, but the Cowboys couldn't get any pressure. Jim Johnson will find a way to get in Brees' face.
 
Really havent done much research or even thinking about these games. Basically due to feeling like shit and simple disinterest. So this is sort of the top of my head type talking....basically dont hold me to it...

You have Indy @ Balt:
I have to say I am suprised that Balt opened -4. I felt that it could have opened anywhere from -2.5 to -3.5 depending on what they felt was fair. The -2.5 would have definetly been light but I look at who Baly hosted this season and there best opponent was SD who was favored in Balt. I also see they were favored only twice on the road. Which gets me back to the point what where those lines telling me? If your always a road dog basically in theory your somewhere around equal to your opponent. So to say balt is better then Indy right now I struggle with. I understand they are 13-3 but they also played a soft schedule and stole a few games late. However they do seem to be playing their best football right now. The past 7 weeks their defense has been filthy. I actually think the total may be lite...Indy weakness has been there road defense and especially against the run. baltimore isnt scaring me with the run but McNair can still do some things. Indy was 12-4 during the season and stole a few games as well but also looked awful last 4 away after winning in Den and NE.

Right now I still like Indy and the over possibly.

With Philly @ NO...Sheppard's loss seems big since Brees played well the 1st meeting. On one hand I think its tough for NO to beat Philly twice but at least its at home. One thing is I can never figure out these teams true values cause they seem to be rolling on perception and inconsistent play. I do think on a neutral field NO is slightily better so -5 doesnt sound that high wouldnt have expected less then -4. After a hard fought win losing a key defender , can they now go on the road to win? thinking no right now. Not sure about a 48 total because NO defense playing fairly well against some big offenses. Guess I am thinking NO here..

Seattle @ Chi :

Real tough cause there is alot going on. First the earlier meeting was extremely one sided so what can Seattle do differently here? Some key Bears injuries and Alexander plays here. However I have always said Alexander never seems to run well versus better NFC defenses...Look how much help they needed to get 21 points will Chi do the same? Look how Hasselback looked under pressure...pretty shitty to me...With Chi they lost 2 meaningful games all year one an upset the other a road squeaker..Now Chi had been 4-0 ATS at home but followed that with a 1-3 ATS mark past 4 but that was a 1 pt cover. I think I would have expected more like 7 here and you dont want a team like Sea to gain confidence or momentum. As you said the total seems low especially sice the only CHI home under was the last game. Funny is that I could see both offenses being inept and struggling. So I might entertain an under if it went up some...thinking Seattle is 14 -17 pts maybe 20...

I gotta think Brady and Co remember that Sunday afternoon when SD traveled to NE and spanked them. I think most of ot was 2nd Half but liek 41-17 if I recall...I think both defenses are better then advertised and both offenses maybe abit overhyped. They didnt play many good defenses at home Pitt , Oak and KC were above average and all low scoring games. I owuld throw Denver in that conversation except they seemed to catch Denver when they were sliding not early on when the D was lights out. So really liking an under here. Its really tough to not like SD being home but I have to like NE in revenge mode and being 7-1 away this season. The line I guessed about -4 cause NE has finished strong so I lean pats but seem to like the under in a game wioth good defenses , good running games , but good qb's without big play WR's...

Thats my early two cents....

I'll start a thread tmrw or Tuesday depending on if I see anything that should be jumped on..
 
Great work last week don't know if you get sick of hearing it but always enjoy reading your threads. I refer back to your thread throughout the week and agree or disagree always respect your angle. I thought the same about Romo his throws were never sharp and felt Dallas didn't take advantage of the weak secondary. This maybe a stretch but I was wondering during the game if Bill would put Bledsoe in? Do you think that Parcells ever considered it?
 
I'll put it to you like this Chancedog its great to know I am being helpful in some manner. If it I didnt feel that way I truly wouldnt post. I am not persay some young kid looking for attention or validation. I have a great level of confidence in what I do and its probably to the point there is a certain level of arrogance involved. I think the best way to explain it for me is that recent WSJ Dr.Bob article. It should never be a pissing contest bewteen posters or gamblers cause the mission is beating the books. To me its not gambling it really is problem solving. Every game , every line is a problem I must solve and thats really where my 'need' to play alot of games come from. Not the action that inner desire to be able to say they presented me with a problem and I solved it..and there was no problem I couldnt solve.....so yes , I am overacheiver by nature....Trust me the last thing I want is everyone agreeing with me its the disagrements that tend to feed my confidence levels. So a good arguement could make me wonder about my decision making.

Anyway with regards to Romo I think Bledsoe 's arm might have been helpful but his lead feet would have been a problem cause Romo did have to move around alot. I dont think he ever entertained Bledsoe but I could be wrong. I noticed that Romo was putting alot of mustard on his passes. Which also futhers the nervous play. A guy with a great arm when he is unsure of himself tends to simply throw at hard as he can. If my guy cant catch it , no ne can mentality. Like a power pitcher in baseball faced with a tough situation he will try and throw it as hard as possible which it seemed like Romo was doing. Which we all know is the worst thing to do.

I really didnt like Dallas play calling at all. Why run the ball on the 1st down after Jones 35 yard scamper. I understand your in FG position want to play it safe and all . Okay so why not a designed run for Romo?? it just seems so obvious that Dallas was gonna run their and that Seattle would sellout...befor the play happened I was like okay so now it sgona be 2nd and 9 what can we call here..thats what makes a good 1st down play so crucial cuase if you dont its like you are almost giving up on scoring 6 points and saying its on my defense to stop then now..

The game to me came down to this though. As poorly as Seattle really played the Boys never really took advantage of it. So many minor plays when say Dallas was at midfield or on the Sea40 when they walked away with zip..( 3 or 4 occassions at least). They only had a TD lead late. After the great defensive stand that forced a unconverted 4th down to tie the game. Days later I still cant fathom why they throw a WR screen on 1st down at the opposing 1 yard line and then play it safe 4 minutes and run the ball at the Sea 11 . That just befuddles me. You wonder what would happen in so many ways if Dallas just picks up 1 or 2 first down kills a good deal of time...they could have done alot more then that but you do wonder...Dallas was open all day...the secondary did make any stops it was Romo just missing throws or reads all evening....and to say he did that previously was really not the case. He only played poorly in 1 game late down the stretch..his errors were different in the final 4 weeks then they were vs seattle. Funny though the games both ended in the same manner with Romo just a bit short vs Det and Sea ...that tackle from behind really saved the game.

I did miss some of the game as I was driving ...like the sack he took coming out of the half...dont know what happened there....the Witten fumble early and the inability to convert on 3rd down from Sea's 40 were huge errors in myopinion in the 1st quarter...Not using Marion Barber much wasnt smart . The dal defense really played well exept it allowed 4 high yardage pass plays(Hasselback was probably about 110 yds passing on his other 32 attempts) and had to many silly penalties , a few of which I thought were bad calls but not seing the whole game maybe I missed some questionable calls that DAL received.. Alexander did nothing until the 20 yd run after the failed FG. So you got the effort from the defense that you wanted.....


The most disappointing thing for me outside of Dallas play and arrogance cause I thought they would have been humbled by DET was two -fold. Losing out personally on 26 units that would have put me at +40 on the 1st day of the playoffs and the fact that for people who may have believed my arguement may have waited to long to play it and instead of getting +3 or +2 opted for the ML and lost a game they probably shouldnt have...to me that sux...bad...not to mention I would have loved to chat about the Philly/NYG game...

Probably will start thinking about the NFL tonite....
 
Funny to hear you talk about the Cowboys' arrogance, SN, because weren't we just talking about that same thing a week ago?

I agree with you, after the Eagles go in there and kick their *ss, then after they can't out-score the Lions (the Lions?!?) you'd think they'd be humbled. But they weren't, I think, because it's in their nature. From Jerry Jones, through Parcells, down to TO and even to Romo, they are an arrogant franchise.

And the truth is, if you do the things you've pointed out above, you deserve to lose. The sad part about it, from a Cowboys' perspective, is that both the teams in that game played poorly enough to lose.

Unfortunately, I could say the same about the Eagles/Giants game. But I have a somewhat high standard for the Birds.
 
On the flip side if Dallas hits the Fieldgoal, their was some time on the clock. Where their is a chance Seattle breaks one ruining the 3 point cover inprobable but those of us that just had Dallas getting the points were not terrably disapointed.
Personally I had a great weekend, much better than last year where I bet against Pitt in every game. The homer that I am I had the Pats and also had a good feeling on Dallas early on, large part from reading your thread.
I think the SD vs NE game is the best match up of the weekend. A rookie Q.B. and a coach that has not had success in the playoffs are the two advantages that favor the Pats. I had thought the line to be 4 it sits at 5 if I see it deep I will take the 4.5 in fear it goes to 4.
Thanks Sportnut see you around.
 
I guess thats what seperates us Joe. You and I would see the error in our ways and make an effort to correct them. I definetly have to agree with the its in their nature comment. You wonder if at the end Parcells was simply fed up with the whole team , TO arrogance is what keeps him from being a HOFer and well Romo's arrogance left him a sacred little boy on Saturday. They should not have been setting for three IMO at that time.

The Boys did alot of things poorly but what I hate to see is they were unforced errors and there were also more coaching errors. Coaches shouldnt win or lose games in any sport...thats just my take the play on the field should be the determining factor. Really all of Dallas miscues were unforced. With 6 minutes to go that WR screen really pisses me off. The last thing you want is safety there, isnt it? You rather give thema short field with the a TD lead then good field position and up only 5 cause everything is 4 down territory. I just dont ever get how pro's make these mistakes. The mission should be chew clock move the chains....in that position...very disappointed in that...you go from great momentum in your favor to giving it all back times two...

I dont think Sea played poorly though cause that what about as good as you could have expected form them. Thats what they looked like form week 1 to 16 of this season. The Hawks are the team who managed to be favored twice vs STL twice and win both times yet fail to cover three pts both times...they have just had this knack of not beating themselves and winning games cause the other team never buried them. Which I dont have a problem with cause in a sense they are fulfilling there potential.

The Cowboys deserve to lose to just about any other team not named Seattle or Kansas City the only frauds in the playoffs.

I think with the NYG though its alot of what I expected. They had many opportunities to do some things but I respect that Philly will make it tough for them every possession. I also realize being a NYG fan we just have limitations on offense. Plaxico will not be given much space to make plays which leaves only Shockey really in the passsing game. You know what kills me is all the times they throw 3rd and2 when your RB is Tiki and your pass game is limited. As well as the 1st & goal plays where they are passing that was so huge. The NYG are a broken team due to injuries they cant overcome thanks to players who never progressed on both sides of the ball. I basically got what I expected from 7.5 of 8 teams in the NFL this weekend...the one miss was really the Dallas offense...the defense did what I expected....

If I rated Dallas play on defense it was a B+ but the offense was C- maybe even D.....and againit wasnt Seattle doing much . Though Sea I think did well to not allow Romo time to make the proper reads on occassion. Then again did Romo even look at another WR on the third down lob to Owens...? Shit performance they are home and I only care cause the ML didnt pay for everyone....

We got another week to have fun with.....
 
chancedog said:
On the flip side if Dallas hits the Fieldgoal, their was some time on the clock. Where their is a chance Seattle breaks one ruining the 3 point cover inprobable but those of us that just had Dallas getting the points were not terrably disapointed.
Personally I had a great weekend, much better than last year where I bet against Pitt in every game. The homer that I am I had the Pats and also had a good feeling on Dallas early on, large part from reading your thread.
I think the SD vs NE game is the best match up of the weekend. A rookie Q.B. and a coach that has not had success in the playoffs are the two advantages that favor the Pats. I had thought the line to be 4 it sits at 5 if I see it deep I will take the 4.5 in fear it goes to 4.
Thanks Sportnut see you around.

yeah with about 1: 15 left thats why I wanted that killer instinct from Dallas...punch it in go for 2 and regardless you need Seattle to drive down the field which they hadnt done all nite and rarely done all season..The thought of never felt likeyou were losing with Dallas was comfortable and to be honest I wasnt even paying close attention to the FG attempt. Not cause it was a cant miss but because it really didnt change as much...

The best game is gonna be SD and NE for sure...Under! BOL bro..
 
I agree with you on coaches. I think they 'can' win the game at times, but they rarely should. That said, I think a good coach is worth at least one extra win to your team a year.

And, with that, Coughlin deserves to be fired.

Leading up to both of the last two Giants/Eagles games that if the Giants pounded Jacobs and Tiki they'd control the game and have the better chance at the win. But I said they wouldn't because Coughlin would get sucked into throwing the ball. Sure enough, I'm almost surprised to say it, but that's exactly what he did.

I honestly don't understand how, especially in this game--when afterward he was directly asked if anything was wrong with Jacobs physically and he said no--that you sit Jacobs on the bench for the whole game.

Tiki had a good day, really he was the reason they covered as much as anything. But to sit Jacobs, when Tiki is running well is just pathetic.

More than that, and I think this applies to all the coaches involved in those two games, coaches get into grooves and it's hard to get them out of them. Coughlin doesn't really want to run and yet his talent says he should. Andy doesn't want to run even though his numbers and talent tell him that he absolutely must. Parcells doesn't want to change the way he calls plays, neither does Holmgren. And at a certain point they're better moving on because their groove isn't working with the talent they've got.

This week is going to be interesting.
 
well....still very early.... 6-0 colts

but as we predicted...no turnovers by colts or bad plays to give them short fields to ravens and making their Raven offense march 70+ yards to score is working in our favor...on that angle, ill take peyton over there offense any day
 
Watchin this game it seems like the ravens are on the verge of taking the lead and taking control.. The last 2 drives for the colts have been pathetic
 
Looks like the ravens are gonna pound this defense and wear them out, they are so much more physical than the colts.
 
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