Playoffs

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Off an extremely sound Sunday after a poor XMas Monday....the good outweighed the bad though....might have been 10-2 on sides...(something like 9-2 / 10-3)...

Dallas Cowboys +3 -108 {5units} , +3.5 -120 {8units} , ML +139 {5units}
Over 22 -108 Dallas team {5units} waiting on this..lean over 46/46.5

This is basically a best bet times four!

The way I have at worst this game is a PK and if Dallas just wins SU they are probably -3. The Seahawks have not been very good all season. The best thing for Dallas to do is get away from home and play on the road...they have lost 3 straight at home including the final 2 games. If you think DAL secondary is bad what till you get a look at Seattle's. Trufant is Doubtful along with Herndon who has to be out after breaking his ankle. Jimmy Williams forced into starting action has a bad knee listed as questionable. You best WR Darrell Jackson hasnt played past few weeks and the guy who stepped in nicely for him DJ Hackett is questionable with a bad groin. They are literally signing guys off the streets.......

You have Romo being called out by his coach...as being over confident...

Think of it like this Seattle was 4 pt dogs at home to SD a few weeks ago , they were just catching 3 pts in Tampa Bay!!!! , they have lost to SF at home !!

There wins at home ARI by 11 , NYG by 12 , GB by 10 , STL by 2 , Oak by 16 .....they had a steak of 7 games straight allowing at least 20 pts + snapped in TB and only 4 of the 16 games fell under 20 pts.... outside of the win @ TB they won by 3 @ Det , 3 @ DEN in Cutlers 1st game and @ STL by 2.....they are a bad 9-7....


Its scary that the DAL defense has allowed 16 TDs past 5 games!! The Seattle OL has not played well , they have injured WR's and there defense has holes...
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yspsctnhdln>Seahawks turn to a hunter and loan officer for defensive help</TD></TR><TR><TD height=7><SPACER height="1" type="block" width="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>By GREGG BELL, AP Sports Writer
January 2, 2007
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<SMALL>AP - Jan 2, 7:01 pm EST</SMALL>
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KIRKLAND, Wash. (AP) -- Not long ago, Pete Hunter was working in Dallas-area mortgage office. John Howell was guiding hunts for elk and other game in the Great Plains. Rich Gardner was working out four times a week at a gym in Nashville.
Then the phone rang for each of them.
Now Hunter, Howell and Gardner will suit up for Seattle in Saturday's NFC wild card playoff game between the Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.
All three signed with the Seahawks in the last week, since starting cornerbacks Marcus Trufant (high ankle sprain) and Kelly Herndon (broken ankle) both got hurt. Then Tuesday, backup defensive back Jimmy Williams joined Herndon on the injured reserve list with a knee injury sustained in Sunday's win at Tampa Bay in the regular season finale.
Just more problems for a Seattle pass defense that has given up big plays throughout this season.
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</NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>"It's really a tough situation," Seahawks defensive coordinator John Marshall said. "We're going to have to come with a decision on who's going to be where."
Marshall said that decision is changing each day, as the coaches assess how well Hunter, Gardner and Howell are learning the defense's calls.
"Hey, that's what we get paid the big bucks for. Yeah, right," Marshall said, smiling.
The coach fully expects Dallas to target Seattle's patchwork defense.
"Yeah, they are going to -- you would assume they are going to -- test the secondary and see what they can do with it," Marshall said.
One of the few healthy defensive backs, Michael Boulware, had been benched for two months for giving him up big plays. Now he's playing where Jordan Babineaux used to be, at safety. Babineaux is starting at cornerback, for Herndon.
Now this: Pulling in a hunter, mortgage broker and gym rat. All had been out of football for this entire season. They're back -- just in time for Dallas receivers Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn and the Cowboys' Pro Bowl quarterback, Tony Romo.
Gardner is the new guy Dallas is likely to see most.
The former Tennessee Titan, signed Dec. 27, last played in a game on Dec. 24, 2005. Tennessee released him in September. The 2004 third-round pick from Penn State said he wasn't falling back on his economics degree from Penn State while waiting for four months for an NFL team to sign him.
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<SMALL>AP - Jan 2, 7:00 pm EST</SMALL>
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>"I knew I would get another opportunity. I didn't know when," Gardner said. "Fortunately, the Seahawks called."
Marshall said Gardner is penciled as Seattle's fifth, "nickel" back in passing situations -- Babineaux's old job.
"Right now, yes. But don't hold me to that, because we've got to get a feel for Pete Hunter," Marshall said. "And don't forget that Gerard Ross is in that mix, too."
Oh, yeah -- Gerard Ross, a practice squad player whom Seattle has cut and re-signed twice this season.
Hunter, a former Cowboy, lives on a hill overlooking Dallas' practice facility. He talked Tuesday while standing over a silver suitcase and an open, black bag full of gear. Both still had airline luggage tags on them from his Monday night flight.
His tryout was Tuesday morning. He didn't even have a locker following the afternoon practice. Hunter had to borrow a hook from Gardner's end stall to hang his sweat pants.
His last NFL tackle and interception? On Sept. 19, 2004, for the Cowboys, who drafted him in the fifth round of the 2002 draft.
Marshall said Hunter impressed the Seahawks with his conditioning and lateral movement during his tryout Tuesday morning.
Sunday, Hunter was home watching NFL games on TV. The Seahawks at the Buccaneers, perhaps?
"The Cowboys," said Hunter, who was studying to become a U.S. immigration enforcement agent before returning to the NFL. "I've still got a lot of friends on that team."
Hunter said he remains tight with Keith Davis, Andre Gurode and Roy Williams on the Cowboys.
"It's going to be crazy playing against my friends," he said.
Hunter is hoping it's not crazy to think the government will push back his test to become a Border Patrol agent because of his new gig.
"I was looking forward to taking the test on the 19th," Hunter said. "Yeah, I'm going to try to postpone ... I'm pretty sure (they'll) understand." The Seahawks value Howell for his special teams versatility. He played in 10 games for Seattle before ending last season on injured reserve.

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"A stat that I remember and that I live by a little bit when it comes to big games is Joe Montana's stats in the Super Bowls, which I believe he has 11 touchdowns and no picks," Romo said. "That pretty much exemplifies what's made him special. So if I can somehow avoid the mistakes and not have any turnovers, I'll be all right."
 
Agree 100% on Dallas Team Over

If this is a sucker bet consider me a sucker, because I believe I will put 3 units on that Dallas Over. How in the hell do they not hit it against a less than average Seattle Defense with a devastated secondary? The only thing that is scary is that it seems too easy. I mean how the hell does this team total not go over? I would like to hear from someone that actually thinks it goes under, and provide the reasons why. I consider myself to be a little sharper than the average bear, so I do get a little frightened when something seems so easy.

Sportsnut I have read your opinions before, was wanting to start an NFL discussion as right now I am still trying to think through these NFL games. Here are my thoughts so far:

K.C./Indianapolis...............I am actually thinking the best play on this game is the Under. I expect KC to play Herm Edwards style ball, try and control the clock and play keep away from Manning. I lean Colts as far as a side in this game, as I have not seen enough out of the Chiefs this year to make me want the points

Dallas/Seatte.............I was disappointed to see the line where it was, as I thought Seattle would be favored by 6 or more. However, I see reason why especially with a decimated secondary. I have to lean the over and take the points with Dallas. I think the Dallas Team Total is the single best bet on this game. The Over looks like a potential play, as Dallas is getting torched right now, and I am not sure they can fix that, and the Seattle Defense was already below average and now their secondary is a collection of guys off the street.

New York/New England..........New England is the play in this game. I learned my lesson last year, don't go against New England at home in the playoffs. Going into this game I think this Jets team is not as good as last year's Jacksonville squad, and the point spread is about the same. I see no reason, especially given the fact New England is playing well right now, and they have added incentive to knock off the Jets who came into Foxboro and beat them the last time. 9.5 is a lot to lay, but not with Brady, Belichick, and co. Don't see any value in taking the Jets. The Jets played a terrible schedule, their defense is average, their offense will get shut down as Belichick will hold them to 14 or less on the board. I see Pennington throwing a couple of picks with his rubber man arm. The Jets feast on poor tackling, and the Pats and their veteran team are as fundamental as they come.

New York Giants/Philadelphia.........The best way to play this game looks like to take the Giants Team Over.....I want to go against the Eagles, as I think they get taken down to earth soon, but not sure I want to test my luck with a schizophrenic Giants team, that at the instance of trouble will fold like a tent. I also don't like the idea of laying 7 with the Eagles. I would have to lean with the G-Men, but can't put my money on them in this game (had the G-Men in the Skins contest last Sat.), but can't do it here. I like the Under, just because it seems a bit high, but I really don't like either defense, so not sure I can play that.

Curious on yours and other thoughts, as I am trying to continue my winning ways in NFL. I just have to spend some more time as well collecting my thoughts on these getting some good input from others on the site.
 
Thanks Yanks...still deciding on the rest...GL

Austin truthfully you shouyld be doing that here but I am always overcautious at the end of the day +100 and 134 or +139 isnt that great a difference..where as winning , pushing or losing could enter in the solution...this is where I need to sack up! BOL
 
Sirwinzalot - yeah I do that to myself often where it looks to easy ...the key is as you said who is the other side? Well as long as the game total doesnt sprint to 49 I feel like there has to be under money then out there...so even though I dont have the contrarian opinion I think the market itself will let you know what people think...lets not forget the world has Dallas sucks engrained in their minds...

With KC @ Indy - actually we are thinking alike cause in this game I do actually really like the under. These days Indy seems to have transformed from a quick strike offense to a more methodical , grinding offense. Perfect example the first scoring drive in the Miami game. As you said its still Herm Edwards. Also though I dont think the Indy run defense which will have Bob Sanders here is anywhere near as poor at home as it is away. Both teams struggling now and KC backed into the playoffs. So really I dont want a team who doesnt actually deserve to be here. I have to look at this better still...

With Dallas v Seattle: Look at it very simply...How many times does a team go from -13 to +3 in a week? Now competition always has alot to do with it but DET also played well vs Seattle in the opener and in NE a couple weeks ago so they are a solid dog..There is no way in hell Seattle would have ever laid 6 pts to Dallas. Last year when Dallas was medicore and Seattle very good the line was only -5 and Dal outplayed them all afternoon but lost by 3. How far has Seattle fallen? They were +3 in TB(meaning Sea would have been like -4 at home) but (Dallas was like -13!! @ home) to Rattay and it was widely known that he was NOT resting his starters!! That means on a neutral field they were EQUAL! Did you see the Dallas vs TB game on T-Day and what the line was? Naturally Seattle was way undervalued in TB...regardless that gap is still so huge though....By having Dallas +3 in Seattle you are saying they are equal and that is nowhere near truthfully based on 16 games(worst case IMO Dal si -3 on a neutral field). Yes, Dallas played poorly past 2 weeks but what did Seattle do all season? This team was 9-7 and won 4 games against below .500 teams by a FG or less..and now is banged up!! Now I am making a big deal of Sea being +3 because its about what that line means...Seattle and TB are equal in theory....Look at Dallas last 4 of 5 away...-3.5 in ATL , -3 NYG , -3 Wash , -6.5 in Arizona...great recent common opponent.....the hwks were -3/-3.5 and lost in Zona about a month apart......Simple way to 'prove' my point is look at the difference in spreads...DAL -6.5 v Sea -3 is a 3.5 pt difference meaning Dal is 3.5 pts stronger at least...on an neutral field... what does DAL being favored in those away games mean...simply they are near TD or better favs on neutral fields then those teams....The Hawks are basically the Falcons as fas as team strength goes...

Anyway I spin it that line is OFF IMO! Best thing mentally for Dallas (just like my NYG) get the Fcuk out of Dodge...Seattle has allowed 156 yds rushing past three and is now facing the Cowboys star WR's with a depleted secondary....sort of rambled ...my goal is exploit bad lines and this is one...

With NYJ @ NE : The Jets are a well prepared team but this is becoming a huge rivalry. HUGE!...half asleep listening to some show on MSG ...and they were talking to a reporter in Boston. He was saying how after NE stomped Tenny the NE assistants were heard muttering aloud something like Sorry Eric , you didnt win the division...sort of rubbing it in that they had won the division over the Jets...So HUGE revenge matchup. In foxboro NY sort of hung around and NE fell apart. I went to the 1st game with the classic Cotchery TD. The Jets looked like little kids playing against NE till that point ....it was 21-0 or 24-0 after the last NE TD the stadium cleared out..NY agains some momentum and ran with it late in that game......

The Jet offense just is not going to be enough up in Foxboro...the best they can do is 17 points......but that could mean a cover.....looking for 24-10...NY will struggle to run the ball making the passing game to much dink and dunk...also thinking of an under here...


With NYG @ Philly: This line was fat it should be about -4 but what scares me is I dont know if NY can win in Philly(again)...with the total the NYG defense seems to tire late alot producing alot of big 4th Q's latetly so I am probably opting for the 1st Half Under. Tiki wont be breaking many 50 yard TD runs versus Philly..hell get his yards but more grind it out fashion...if SHockey doesnt play there wont be miuch in the passing game vs Philly so I dont like that NYG team over..if Shockey and Buckhalter are out would actually really like the under.

You look at at the past 5 weeks for both and you see NYG played only 1 real bad game where Philly only played one real good game. The last meeting bewteen these two saw Philly score the last two TDs in the final 7 minutes to win by 13...so it was game for the most part for 3 1/2 quarters and really the same goes for the NYG vs Dallas. So 2-3 past 5 had really only the Saints game where they laid an egg. Now Philly winning breeds confidence and momentum. However they barely beat Carolina at home...a INT away from a loss? , they barely beat Was an FG insteadof a TD away from a loss , they NYG which I spoke about and then the flattening of Dallas where as NY choked that week. The Atl game was really a typical week 16 game...

So if you asked me what this line would be on a neutral field I would say -1.5 Philly....early on when both teams were healthy Philly was just -2.5...


Hope this helps..my early opinions..

Under 51 Indy ( really no side lean yet but more Indy then anything)

Dal +3 / over 46.5

Under 37.5 NE / (same as Indy really somewhat lean NE)

NYG +7 / Under 46.5 depending in key players
 
The Farm said:
nut,

Any thoughts on the pats/jets over 37.5??
Click to expand...


Not crazy about the total yet..

However the 17 points was the highest NY scored in NE since 2002! The Pats will look to pound the ball into the softest part of NY's defense and look to keep the ball out of the offenses hands. The Pat defense has somewhat diminished this year but still 17points in 3 games , 13 ,10 and 7 in others....only 21 Det and 27 Indy break 20 points(pass happy QB's)....so basically I would expect 13-17 pts from NYJ as the ceiling. I am not sure you an trust Washington and Houston to run the ball in NE in a playoff game. Though I do think Leon Washington can be a stud...look at how the NY offense performed in Miami , vs Chicago , vs Buffalo ...last meeting in NE sloppy day and 280 yards on 60+ plays...early meeting 306 yds passing on 117 yds over 2 receptions that wreaked of bad tackling(the Cotchery one and Coles where the safety waited 10 yds back at the 5 to try and tackle him), so basically then 35 other attempts for 190 yards...


I expect crisp efforts from both and with NE on the heels of an high scoring game probably devalues the over.....dont think it happens by much but expect to slide Under 23-13 type....24-10....the NE passing agme doesnthave many weapons and the NYJ secondary has greatly improved as the season wore on.....both teams will have to grind for points but NE has a strength with Maroney and Dillon and it happens to be a weakness for thr Jets.....
 
I pay very little attention to NFL. In the last 5 years when the dog covers in the first round roughly what percentage is su as opposed to covering with points?
 
Scary that we are thinking alike, but I Guess Scary Good

That's good, that I am thinking just like you on these games. It is good to get some confirmation from another good football capper like yourself. I think I am thinking correctly on these.


Here are my guesstimates on the games

Kansas City/Indianpolis.................28-17 Indianapolis

Dallas/Seattle.........................34-27 Dallas

NYJets/New England....................24-13 New England

NY Giants/Philadelphia...............31-28 Philadelphia

I am the most unsure on that Giants/Philly game........that is a hard one. I think Philadelphia wins, but I also don't like laying 7 points with the Eagles. At the same time I haven't trusted this Giants team since last season. I also think they are really hurting without Toomer and Strahan. Toomer is the guy no one talks about, but I think you can trace Eli's regression back to his absence (Plaxico is not reliable, so now Eli has no other reliable WR to throw to). Strahan is a big loss as well, because the Giants defense can't get enough pass rush to defend their average secondary. The OL has been hurting too, just not sure I want to lay 7 with the Eagles, whose defense is not what it was earlier this year and also a team that doesn't have a consistent smashmouth running game.

Those are my thoughts...........
 
Tuck - I have not the slightest idea. I will say I will rarely take the points in the NFL unless I feel a team has a legit chance at winning. Which is why I have wavered on NY but after further thought I am not sure I can pass on taking them @ +7.5 . Philly is clearly the better team but by how much. If its in reference to the way I staggered my Dallas plays cause its simple I am pussy and looking to protect myself as much possible.

Also Sirwinzalot , I do agree with your possible outcomes outside of Philly/NYG. I think that total will be dictated heavily be the 1st half. Both defenses seem to fade abit late games so 4th quarter overs probably make sense. I could easily see a 7-7 , 7-3 ,10-3 1st half...

I very much agree with your point about Amani Toomer. For all of Plax and Shockey's talent they both have mental flubs and drop easy passes in big spots. Amani was ole reliable and whoever NY puts in his place is a big dropoff. I dont think Strahans loss is a big cause I think his level of play was inconsistent. So if someone steps up on a given day they can replace his presence IMO...hard to say you dont feel a ProBowler's loss but I think you get my point..once again NY was derailed by injuries it really is a shame...
 
Looking further at KC @ Indy:

Two things that I dislike about KC are Larry Johnson's effectiveness on the road and the whole Trent Green situation. Starting with his play , to his sprained ankle , to the possibility of a short leash. Huard has to be somewhat rusty...doesnt he?


While Indy's defense has issues it will have Sanders and plays much better at home in general but especially against the run. Now lets sort of move aside how mnay carries LJ has had 416 plus his 41 receptions.

LJ on the road:
Has only 4 of his 17 TDs. Now he did run well in STL on turf so that is a caution flag. <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Turf {career}</TD><TD class=yspscores>4</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>111</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>614</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>153.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Now on the road
@ Den 27c 126yds
@ Ari 16c 36yds
@ Pitt 15c 26 yds
@ STL 27c 172yds
@ Mia 18c 75yds
@ Cle 28c 110yds
@ SD 19c 84 yds
@ Oak 31c 135 yds

154c 592 yds w/o the Rams game.

Now KC only gets 3.9YPC away but Indy does allow 5.1 YPC at home which is misguided IMO. However just 5.1 YPA where KC gets only 5.9YPA. Kc QB's have been sacked 40 times to Indys 14 ....Green has a bad ankle and Indy has Freeney. So while we all know this Indy clearly has the better OL as well. Manning has 31 Tds and 9 Ints...Green has 7Tds and 9 Ints in half a season!! That the Indy duo has 3 less carries and only 67(1789 v 1722) less rushing yards then LJ....! WRs Harrison alone has 12 TD catches while Kennison , TG and S.Parker have 11 combined (only 18 passing for KC). For all the concerns Indy DEF is only slightily worse statiscally allowing 3 pts more per game with about the same turnovers forced and sacks.

Special teams: Dante Hall is more of a gamebreaker but Wilkins is statistically better. Vinateri kicking FG's end of story. Tynes has better range from 50+ but Vinateri is so solid from 47 in...


Take away Greens game in Cle he never topped 185 yds and he would have 3Tds to 8 Ints this season!

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Home (Addai)</TD><TD class=yspscores>8</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>109</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>607</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>75.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Getting back to the run defense at home:

Ronnie Brown 21c 115 yds but had a 47yd run.
Rudi Johnson 22c 79yds
Westrbook 20c 124yds
ATrain 28c 109 yds
Betts/Portis 22c 95 yds
Henry/Lendale 27c 171yds
Taylor/Drew 34c 177yds
Texans trio 20c 98 yds

Whats most interesting is the teams who ran for the most yds Tenny and Jax only scored 13 and 14 pts the lowest totals.


In Conclusion while I like the game under I am concerned knowing Indy should put up 31 here at home. KC couldnt contain Jax and a 3rd string QB...they have a veteran secondary which lacks speed and Indy's OL will allow the WRs time to run their routes and Peyton to pick it apart IMO. Also the best way to eliminate LJ is score quickly...and we might see more methodically drives from Indy on offense. So with that in mind I am leaning KC under 22 team since no team since Houston's 21 pt 4th quarter in the home opener has broken 22 points in Indy and KC road offense has been an issue.

Strong lean: Under 22 -108 KC
Lean : Under 51 -110 and Indy -6.5 (buy from -7)

What I did play was 2 things:

Cowboys +9 / Indy -1 {3unit teaser}
Cowboys ML +130 / Indy -286 {3units}pays about 6.30units
 
Saturday :

Dallas Cowboys
+3 -108 {5units}
+3.5 -120 {8units}
ML +139 {5units}

Over 22 -108 Dallas team {5units} waiting on this & weather
Lean over 46/46.5 Dal and under 51 -110 Indy
Under 22-109 KC strong lean


Cowboys +9 / Indy -1 {3unit teaser}
Cowboys ML +130 / Indy -286 {3unit ML parlay}
 
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Sportsnut- Agree with the Dallas pick. I think they win this game outright. seattle scares nobody, and I just can't see them moving the ball with much success against Dallas.

I am leaning towards KC +7 on the other game. I just feel Indy giving up 173 yards/game rushing is hard enough to win outright in the playoffs much less cover a TD. KC's D is better than Indys and I feel Chiefs will ball control this game as much as possible to keep Indy O off the turf.

I am gonna try to find Herm's record ATS when playing P.Manning the last couple of years and see if that sheds any light here.

Leaning NYG and NE on sunday.

Thanks and good Luck!!
 
awesome thread, guys. some excellent info in here.

only fav i like is NE...only under i like is NE/NYJ. everything else is dogs and overs from me.
 
really like the Dallas play and the overs with it. I have been playing all of Seattle's games on the over for the 1st quarter, if you go back and look at the games almost every single 1st quarter went over, a huge percentage. Going to add that one onto the list of plays you already have on this game.
Good Luck Sports.
 
No problem Farm ...its a real tight number . Wish I could give a more definitive answer. GL

Thanks Yanks and were basically on the same page. GL

Thanks Mx. I have been looking at over possible related to that game just waiting on the weather reports/ updates....dont want to lock myself in just yet. GL

Thanks Terps...Awful is such a strong word....GL

ISU74 -

To me the biggest misconception about the Indy / KC game is the running game. Rushing yards dont ever translate into points. I see it all the time about how teams run all day well its great but if you dont get points from it who cares...perfect example the Atlanta Falcons and Jax Jags.

Truth is LJ and the KC offense is very ineffective on the road. In 8 road games LJ had 4 TDs...and he wasnt facing many great rush defenses...

Now on the road
@ Den 27c 126yds
@ Ari 16c 36yds
@ Pitt 15c 26 yds
@ STL 27c 172yds
@ Mia 18c 75yds
@ Cle 28c 110yds
@ SD 19c 84 yds
@ Oak 31c 135 yds

154c for 592 yds w/o the Rams game. Less then 4 YPC!

I dont see much I would be concerned here about his running yards. He had ONE good game on the road vs the worst run defense. He was pretty solid @ Denver and @ Oakland but nothing scary....only 6 and 20pts in those games...and 58 carries you better see 120,130 yds

The other misconception is the INDY run defense it does NOT allow 171 rush yds per game......

Getting back to the run defense at home:

Ronnie Brown 21c 115 yds but had a 47yd run.
Rudi Johnson 22c 79yds
Westrbook 20c 124yds
ATrain 28c 109 yds
Betts/Portis 22c 95 yds
Henry/Lendale 27c 171yds
Taylor/Drew 34c 177yds
Texans trio 20c 98 yds

Whats most interesting is the teams who ran for the most yds Tenny and Jax only scored 13 and 14 pts the lowest totals

KC was pretty bad in SD when SD had an off nite. The Charger defense is clearly better but the Indy offense is also clearly better then SDs. So after much thought 7 is light IMO for this game....8/8.5 was probably a more fair number...I think Indy wins here by 10-14....how quickly we forget how Cincy was dismantled by Indy a few weeks ago...

Good Luck in your plays..
 
Dallas couldn't even beat fucking Detroit at home, and you're telling me they're going to come into Qwest Field and just decimate a Seahawks defense that has played very well the past two weeks? They should have beat San Diego two weeks ago, if not for an inexplicable breakdown in coverage in the last 30 seconds of regulation.

Nobody is mentioning anything about a Dallas O-Line has been absolutely awful the past month. Even without much of a secondary, Seattle should be able to get pressure on Romo and force a few turnovers. I guarantee you this...Seattle will move the ball, through the air and on the ground.

Don't forget...this Seattle team is 9-7 minus their NFL MVP running back for half the season, and their Pro Bowl QB for over a month. It's tough to win games when your offense is turning the ball over, and your defense is left with a short field over and over.

I think the line is right where it should be. Just my $0.02 of course. No way would I lay money on a Cowboys team that has been horrid the past 4 weeks. At least Seattle was competitive in all of their recent games...Dallas just kept getting blown out.

Do me a favor...pound Dallas so the line drops and I can lay some dough on the Hawks -3. :shake:
 
Deep breath...slow down....I love the conviction though!!!!

Uhmmm and SF is much better? Historically both are two of the worst road NFL teams and didnt Sea win by 3 vs Det? The SD offense is so overrated its not funny! SD did well against injured or bad defenses...the Browns played well in SD so who cares that Seattle played well at home and lost! They had every edge possible and still found a way to lose thats what bad team do. They played well in TB are you even sure about that statement? Besides the fact TB is one of the four worst teams in the NFL. I beg to differ. Here's why and remember factor in TB is AWFUL:

Down 3-0 TB drives 54 yds and settles for a 43yd FG attempt to tie at 3. Bryant misses and not suprisingly with decent fiedl position and momentum they score a TD and go up 10-0. Then TB gets the ball back and goes 80 yards and makes it 10-7. You sure that defense is playing well? I mean TB has Tim Rattay , Michael Pittman , Joey Galloway and Maurcie Stovall to deal with. They had 8 possessions the great TB offense punted 3 times , missed a FG , scored a TD , fumbled inside the 5 , turned it over on downs inside the 5 and fumbled deep in their territory.

Now down 10-7 the Hawks moving the ball they fumble. TB takes over at their 42 and goes 53 yards but fumbles. You sure that defense is playing well...TB down just 3 points already has taken 6-10 points off the board. After this they exchange punts then Seattle drives down teh field for a TD and 17-7 lead.

After the Half down 17-7 Seattle gets the ball punts it to TB who fumbles on the first play giving Seattle the ball at TB's 11. They manage to settle for -2 yards and 3 pts for a 20-7 lead. Tb gets the ball back down 20-7 and punts it back to seattle who gets another drive going and 3 more points 23-7 lead now.TB has the ball to start the 4th quarter and goes 53 yds but fumbles at the Sea 3 yard line...more points taken off the board...which brings the total from anywhere to 9-17 points that a poor TB team left off the board. You really want to applaud the SEA defense?

Now you really want to boast about that TB win??

Yeah its great Seattle played SD tough and still lost!! proving they cant beat a good team and they were 4 pt home dogs! I throw in that SD has reached overrated status especially on offense. There defense is really the key and LT great TD record is a product of having the ball handed to him inside the 10 yd line repeatedly. Any elite back could do what he did given those opportunities(think Priest Holmes!). Four games that show my point longest run vs Tenny 17 yds but 2 Tds , longest run vs SF 9 yards but 4 TDs , longest run @ Cincy 17 yards but 4 TDs , longest run @ Den 17 yards 3 TDs!!! Product of great field position...the guys awesome but a little to much hype IMO. reaping the rewards of his teammates getting the ball to the red zone...

I agree the Dallas O-Line has been bad the last month but hasnt Seattle's been worse all season and has 3 members still listed as questionable. I do know that Parcells has been yelling at Romo to run more when pass protection breakdowns so it actually hasnt gone unnoticed.

Seattle will move the ball with a banged up OL and 2 injured gametime WR's? They didnt move it that well @ TB and please dont fool yourslef into thinking TB D is anything but medicore , they didnt move it vs SF or SD at home, what happened in Arizona?? What was the problem in Denver ..? In the past 8 games they have one time scored more then 24 pts vs GB at home.....so whats been holding them back....Sure Dallas D has been bad the past five weeks but SF (twice) , Zona , STL , GB still cant compete with Dallas D....

Your dreaming if you think Seattle 9-7 record has to do with Alexander or Hasselbacks absence. There schedule is so WEAK its laughable!! They are 7-4 with a healthy offense ...they won by 3 @ Det , they beat Zona and NYG by 11 , GB by 10 , TB by 16 , Den by 3 in Cutlers 1st start , Stl by 2...there best win was versus when the NYG defense was in shambles pre BYE WEEK! They have only 5 games on their schedule they Could have lost ...Home vs NYG , SD , @ KC , @ Denver , @ Chi maybe I say they could split with the Rams..they should win 10 games by showing up..

Seattle is simply not good where Dallas is just playing poorly....the Hawks were UNDERDOGS in Tampa Bay!!! Can you fall any lower??

So Dallas wasnt comeptitive when they got stopped on the 1 yd line to end the game? The Sainst and Eagles are much better then what Sea is lining up against. They are cocky bastards no doubt but losing to DET humilated them!

I see no reason how you can say the line is fair. Dallas was favored in every road game by 3 or better...Seattle was dogged at home to SD.....

Sorry, I pounded Dallas enough already you will have to hope I convince some really "hitters" to get off -3.

In all seriousness....I understand the risky feel Dal has but that is why I like gambling....I dont believe in that comfortable loss theory. I would rather lose my money on so and so team...Wish ya all the Luck! We both need it!
 
Also if it matters you can check my post past 2 weeks and I had Seattle both times only playing Dal vs Philly...no way I would have seen -13 as fair value with Dallas struggling and DET just going up to NE and giving them a ball game..
 
Nut - I agree with most of your plays, but disagree on the Boys/Hawks Over. I don't see Seattle scoring 20 points here. I tink they max out at 17 and Dallas is capable of scoring 21, but Parcells on the road in the playoffs just screams conservative to me. I tihn the line shoudl be about 44.5 here and i think 46.5 is a bit too much. Under for me.
 
Aztec - I love the passion you have for your team, but lets get real. Other than not showing up in the SB last year, what have the Hawks really done? I look at this seaosn as a total failure. Both teams fomr the SB last year have been shit. The only reason why Seattle is in the playoffs and Pitt is not is because the NFC is so much worse than it was last year and the AFC keeps getting stronger. Not only did you lose @SF, but when you got Hass & Alexander back and played AT HOME with your beloved 12th man, you lost again to San Fran. You lost @ Zona and I honestly have to question wether or not you beat Denver or did Denver beat themselves. Broncos aren't the dominant team that we are used to seeing. I just don't buy Seattle and I think thats why the line is where it is.
 
I think the line is right where it should be. Just my $0.02 of course. No way would I lay money on a Cowboys team that has been horrid the past 4 weeks. At least Seattle was competitive in all of their recent games...Dallas just kept getting blown out.
Click to expand...

Dallas vs Philly, NO, Atl, Det
Seattle vs TB, SD, SF, Ari

Seattle played 1 good team in SD and the other 3 were crap, but Seattle still managed to go 1-3 SU in the last 4. Congrats on beating TB.

Dallas stunk it up too losing to Detroit and being blownout by NO. But if you give the past 4 games for each team a close look, I thnk you can see why the line is @ 3.
 
aztec im with you totally cowboys got smoked at home DET N.O. EAGLES,AND GIANTS now there going on road to loudest place,with romo in rain ?ill give the 2.5 whoever is in secondary for seahawks theyll be ok ,look at dallas deense they sux more then seattles, seattle will move down the field with ease so will dallas but romo turns ball over here couples times and thats all seattle needs people getting sucked into the tuna legend , holmgren just as good of cocah gl all
 
Okay guys were approaching gametime....good stuff by all of you....BOL to everyone.....as far as the total really dealing more with Dallas team over then anything else but I am watching the weather and may wash that...
 
One thing for sure is I think way to many look at teams names versus team performances...or just look at stats. Austin has a good point look at who Seattle is playing to some degree.

You really want to knock Detriot? I think alot of you should go back and look exactly how DET played in the month of December. They were only the second team to score more then 20 points in Foxboro this season the other is Indy. The Patriots who at Foxboro have one of the greatest home field edges in the past decade did NOT lead against DET until 2:30 remained in the game.


Thats not me spinning anything that straight from the Associated Press recapping the game. What people dont realize is BAD team find ways to lose games. However with Dallas in the midst of a slump the Boys could not overcome their own mistakes. Det didnt beat them they beat themselves. Kitna had 314 passing yards vs NE defense which is regarded fairly highly and the NE backs 13c for 39yds...so is what they were able to do to DAL that suprising if you actually pay attention? I dont think so and I had the Lions 2nd Half cause I felt Dallas wasnt serious about that game..to many mental lapses.

Now maybe you want to knock them for Minnesota? It was a bad , ugly game I expected DET to win no doubt. However they had 6 turnovers and one turnover on downs at the 4 which means they punted ONCE!! Kitna had 294 yards!! They gave that game away 26,27 and 41 yd TD drives for Minny! So again they beat themselves.

The lost @ Gb but not suprisingly blew a chance to win when they were down 10-6 early 4th Q ball at GB 12 they settle for 3 ..10-9 game...then GB drives it the other way but neither Johnson of Farve passed for 200 yards....did you see Romo's numbers??

Hosting the 13-2 Bears the visitors needed 3 FGS in the 4th Q to winand Kitna had near 300 yards again..this team is starting Arlene Harris @ RB...it snot like someone fears the run! Oh yeah and Mike Williams dropped the winning TD pass in teh end zone as time expired....

So again was the effort suprising when they faced a slumping Dallas squad?? TB is so bad its not even funny.....look atthere wins...look at how many times they scored 20 pts!!!!! I'll answer 16 games they managed 20 pts on 6 occassions!! It won in Cle late vs a Rookie QB , it won by 3 in Campbell's 1st start and doubt they could duplicate that...they won vs Cincy and Philly on late FGS one which traveled 60 something yards....Of there 12 losses only 3 were by 11 or less!!! beating TB is accomplishment it created momentum??










FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) -- The Patriots know how to finish games. The Lions just finish themselves off. Corey Dillon scored two of his three touchdowns in the last 8:35, Detroit turned the ball over on its last three possessions and New England avoided a stunning upset with a 28-21 victory Sunday. Dillon gave the Patriots their first lead of the second half with his 4-yard scoring run with 2:33 left, backing up Tom Brady's belief that the Patriots nearly always have a chance to win
 
Good Luck Sportsnut

I agree with your picks. I put 3 units on Dallas ML, 3 on Indy -7, and 3 on 51 Under KC/Indy.

I could not put any money on the Dallas/Seattle total..........part of me thinks it goes under, and part of me thinks it goes over.......all the fundamentals point to an over, but I do agree with Austin that with Parcells it could go under. However if Parcells is smart he should run 4 WR sets and get those off the street signees in nickle and dime packages.

Good luck on your plays, and good work. Nice to know we are on the same side on these games. Looking at Pats - the points tomorrow and the Giants + the points.

:cheers:
 
Saturday :

Colts -6.5 -120 {5units}
Under 22 -108 KC team {2unit}

All I have heard about is the KC running game against the Colts run defense. Well if you read back I have pointed out that Indy at home is not as bad as advertised on defense and it will also have Bob Sanders in the mix. As well as LJ having just 4 road TDS and some avg numbers. They keep saying 171 yds allowed well only 2 teams cracked that barrier @ the RCA Dome and they were Tenny and Jax who managed 13 and 14 pts. I continue to say that rushing yards dont mean pts and to win vs Indy you need points. Hell the Jags perfectly executed their gameplan earlier hogged the clock and lost by a TD. Not to mention what happens if Indy strikes early? Or the fact that KC's QB play is so poor Trent Green is on a short leash. Great job by Herm instilling confidence. I am sure what you want is a rusty QB coming in the game. How bout KC's 3-5 away record? We gonna overlook that as well since Indy is 8-0. They won by 3 in Zona , Oakland and STL....they face a team quality wise like Indy in the Chargers and manage a 20-9 loss. Basically if KC doesnt win why would you be backing the Cheifs? Hoping they lose by 3, 4,5,6 pts??? Back in 2003 a better KC team couldnt beat Indy and KC so invincible at home in Dec lost once and almost lost again..

Bottomline is Indy is playoff tested ( and peyton has overcome his one flaw winning @ Foxboro) and much more focused this time around not having James Dungy's death hovering over them. Now its about football. I see no reason why this line is less then 9 points. Look at the tough road venues KC played at SD lost 20-9 , Pitt lost something like 45-7 and Den lost 9-6...they didnt even crack 10 pts...All the Cheifs are a team who has backed into the playoffs after some luck.....they are old in the secondary and wont get to rush the QB...Manning will be his best...look at what he has done in every big game this season...

Have to saythe Under looks attractive but not interested yet.


The Nite cap...what more can I add....it all starts with bad line...

Dallas Cowboys
+3 -108 {5units}
+3.5 -120 {8units}
ML +139 {5units}

Over 22.5 -108 Dallas team {5units} waiting on this & weather
Lean over 47 Dal and under 51 -110 Indy

Extras:

Cowboys +9 / Indy -1 {3unit teaser}
Cowboys ML +130 / Indy -286 {3unit ML parlay}
Cowboys +12.5 / Indy +3 / NE +2 {3units}
<!-- / message -->
 
You're livin' or dyin' with those 'Boys, eh, SN?

Tough. Really, in some ways, I'm not loving that as a game to really dive in on simply from the non-battle tested nature of the Cowboys. And, really, I'd jump all over Seattle if they were healthy. But they're not and every day they seem to get worse.

I'm all over Indy, though, sort of like you, teased, ML, 6.5, a little 7. And I do really, really like Dallas teased.

But I think I might have to see how the Indy game goes before I get involved in the Dallas thing.

Good luck, though.
 
It's funny how some view the postseason in sports as a time when lines are tight. Actually I view them as a time when perception is even more overpriced then usual. You werent here but at one point during the baseball playoffs I reeled off a 17-3 spurt and +80 units in a week or so. Simply taking advantage of bad lines. This goes back to my bad line discussion. There is no way on a neutral field that Seattle and Dallas are equal. Remember what is this line telling me , talk? If anything I would make Dallas -3 making this game a PKem. The injuries are the icing on the cake...remember what happened to NYG last year when they lost all their LB's? You simply cant overcome these things in the playoffs. The 12th man is getting overplayed...if SF can win then just about anyone can. Bad weather I also think tames your fans.. Dallas peaked a bit early and Greg Ellis injury really killed them or so it seems.

Go back to the fact that since Romo became QB @ Carolina that was the last game they were UNDERDOGGED. So the following road games @ NYG , ATL , ARIZONA and Wash all chalk. This kid is 4-1 away already...and really while Washington was a loss it was one in a million fluky type deals...The message was missed when Seattle was dogged in Tampa Bay. On their worst day Dallas would be about -6 in TB. I absolutely believe overconfidence and focus were the reason for Dallas recent demise. Again though Det is not the typical 3-13 team . Romo's commenst about respecting Joe Montana playoff stats tells me he is focused here.

I just dont see where Seattle is even going to have an edge in this game. Alexander is great but their OL just wasnt the same this year with Hutchinson missing . He looks healthy now but remember what happened when they met last year? Thats another thing Dallas last year with Bledsoe went into Seattle when they were peaking and all about but beat them. It was a loss by a fluke loss where Sea scored 10 pts in the final minute...No one seems to remember that...

Wish ya the best and I have utmost confidence that this line is bad and will close close to PKem.

I really dont know what else I can say other then people are breaking the Golden rule of gambling if they are weighing that DET game or TB game. After all it was one game and really Philly & NO are playoff teams so whats so bad about losing to them. Imagine they played Denver now instead of Cutlers 1st start? Same type effort and they lose...

I have no problem hearing any KC or Seattle arguements I want to hear them... but again I know the LINE is bad...
 
I couldnt agree with you more on the thoughts about the dallas game and the line being bad. its almost so bad that it got me thinking that the books might think that seattle can actually beat the boys (and can get a lot of money on them) with a patchwork defense, a bad oline, and a qb that has been actually less consistent the romo. then i slapped myself and said that can't be true.

also wanted your thoughts on peyton manning over 2.5 td passes.
 
BOL today, hope your a winner. I jumped on Dallas early in the week taking the 3. I'm still waiting on your angle Pats vs the Jets game.:drink:
 
Nut, great thread this week !!!! u know i am a dallas homer so my thougths could be considered bias..anyway, seattle d is only good in the front seven and will try to offer pressure but my question is from where? up the middle or outside contain..romo is very mobile and does have the tendency to move left from the pocket from watching him over the past 6 weeks. i believe this will be the concern for seattle. they will not be able to bring tons of pressure without getting burned by the dallas recieving core. i know the dallas o line is not the best but they do not need to be if romo will play like he started 6 weeks ago. the dallas d has been a major concern for weeks and the positive i see is this is now or never so i do expect to see some focus (which has been lacking ovr the past three weeks). dallas played fine against atl and it seems to me seattle is just abt the same class as atl....I know you are a ny'er so please let me know when u r ready to discuss the the philly/gmen game.
the last time we talked abt this game philly was +5 at nyg and made them pay...thanks for your effort !!!!!!
 
i like Joseph Addai hova 71.5 rushing yards -105 at pinny give me your thoughts on this SportsNut
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks guys. I think its actually a good point that Romo's mistakes are more correctable through pratice...such as take off from the pocket when protection breaks or better protect the football . This past week he suddenly had fumbling issues . One thing I would like to point out from an image prospective is do we remember how bad Tony Romo looked in relief during the MNF NYG game? Then how he quickly looked much beter in a week or two? So maybe he just one of these guys who when it going bad looks worse then it really is and vice versa when its going good. Also how bad di he actually play when he was 23 of 32 for 321 yds? His numbers are incredible in 10 1/2 games...1 start below 7.5 yda per attempt , 1 game under 200 yards passsing most above 250 , half his starts with QB ratings well above 100.

Would say I really like the Manning prop but sometimes you just have to be lucky with those. Guys get tackled inside the 5 and then pounding it in but it could go the other way if they run it down to the 5yd and then pass...generally a solid prop one that I would say lacks value though..sort of like Killa's Curry prop last nite. Good play on it but it wasnt exactly cheap.

I will try and start chatting about the NY playoff games when Dallas starts.

With Seattle I agree they have alot of sacks but not exactly a great pass rusher. If Romo is listening to what Parcells wants , he will realize when the pocket collapses to take off. Which as you said will negate the effectiveness of Sea front 7. Absolutely agree with ATL being in the same class as Seattle and I think thats a great tool when looking at teams/games...

GL...riding VaTech early in CBB...be back around kickoff...
 
thecakeoff said:
i like Joseph Addai hova 71.5 rushing yards -105 at pinny give me your thoughts on this SportsNut
Click to expand...

I do like it. My only problem with NFL Props is to me there is alot more guess work then the NBA. NFL they dont play as many games and you just have a harder time with consistency. If this was 68.5 I think it would have 'more' value. It depends on three things IMO: First is how much they pass which should be alot (and if they do have a lead do they allow the vet Rhodes to sort of pound away the clock rather then Addai?), the next would be amount of carries Addai gets I would want to know he gets a minimum of 16,17 carries , the last is considering KCs run defense away it shouldnt be a problem as long as factors 1 and 2 are taken care of...Fargas , Droughns and just about every lead back on the road had no problem avg well above 4 .+ YPC except Ronnie Brown who still had 89 yards.... Even davenport is relief ran all over this KC defense...

So I like I just dont view it something cheap persay...BOL
 
Wish ya the best and I have utmost confidence that this line is bad and will close close to PKem.

Said this to Joe Pub @ 1:42 AM...its now now down to -1 -115...

 
Just so I answer this question before its asked:

Is Dallas still a play at the current levels.. absolutely still alot of value @ +115 ML and would say that Dallas is a play all the way to Dallas -2.5 here....
 
SportsNut said:
Just so I answer this question before its asked:

Is Dallas still a play at the current levels.. absolutely still alot of value @ +115 ML and would say that Dallas is a play all the way to Dallas -2.5 here....
Click to expand...

why is the line droppin so much? sharp money comin on dallas
 
I know this worst omen in football is to drive down the field with ease , have a drive stall and them miss the FG attempt. Very few teams seem to recover from that .....so yeah this a big 47yder...
 
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