Playoffs in the FCS

Dowler seems to have been underutilized in the playoffs until the Montana game. 2r-6y vs Yale, 3r-38y vs SFA and then 5r-125y vs Griz. In the regular season he eclipsed 50.5 in six games.

Illinois State generally allows a lot of receptions. Not like Montana State is a high throw % team, but still, when they do throw, Illinois State should give up some catches and yards.

Last 7 games:
Vs Nova - Colella 4r-58y, Reed 3r-56y
Vs UC Davis - Dobbins 10r-121y, Gbatu 6r-99y, Jones 2r-83y
Vs NDSU - Lance 1r-78y
Vs SLU - Domingeaux 6r-78y
Vs SIU - Jones 4r-60y
Vs SDSU - Bullock 9r-68y, Gannon 9r-63y
Vs Indiana St - Rochelle 6r-103y, Singleton 6r-51y

I'm choosing to stop there, but pretty sure Illinois State pass D has given up consistent yardage to atleast one receiver per game like this. Every Illinois State opponent has had atleast one receiver top 50.5 on them. Dowler is the top guy for Montana State, he leads them with 69 receptions in 15 games (avg ypg 60.9). Steele is next with just 37 catches in 15 games (avg ypg 30.6).

I bet Dowler Over 50.5.

Want to look over the rest, but have some things to tend to right now.
 
Fan Duel has a variety of yardage props.

I took the lowest alt yards for Montana St total Ov 375, Montana St receiving Ov 150, Illinois State total Ov 275 and Illinois State receiving Ov 150 4 team parlay -140

Risk is: MSU has gone Over 375 ttl yards every FCS game except Yale (341), Mercyhurst (354) and SDSU (349). They have gone Over 150 passing/receiving yards every FCS game except Yale (92), UC Davis (144), Mercyhurst (121) and SDSU (139). Illinois State has gone Over 275 ttl yards every FCS game except SIU (217), SDSU (275) and passed/received for 150 yards every game but SLU (147) and SIU (144).

In terms of these Ds and what they have or could allow: Illinois St has yielded Over 375 ttl yards 7x (although just twice over the last 8 games and just 1 in 4 playoff games). 10 of 16 games teams have passed for Over 175y on them. Montana State has yielded Over 275 ttl yards 9x (including 6 straight and all 3 playoff games). 10 of 15 teams have passed for Over 175y on the Cats including 5 straight and all 3 playoff teams.

Illinois State's defensive performance at NDSU a few weeks ago will always be one of the best defensive games vs a team of Bison's caliber (allowed 3.9ypp including 2.2ypc rush and just 2-of-13 3rd downs). But then they followed that masterpiece up the following week with the UC Davis game (allowed 8.2ypp including 5.5ypc rush and 54.5% 3rd downs). That just reinforces how inconsistent Illinois State has been all year long. I can't say I know how they are going to show up tonight, but do think in terms of those relatively low yardage totals, both teams should be able to achieve them.
 
None of the other player props on BM appealed to me much. I might have taken the Rittenhouse Over rush number, but the MSU D creating sacks and negative plays isn't something I wanted to have to deal with.

Adam Jones has been a beast in the playoffs (43att-352y), but in the regular season he only topped 75.5 yards rushing 1 of 12 games. And with Davis splitting carries, who knows which one might get hot in this game or break the runs. Davis actually is posted at 70.5, he has gone Over that figure 7x on the year and has 165 carries (43att and 215y in 3 playoff games). While Jones has 168 carries and an identical 43att in the playoffs as Davis. One of them probably goes Over their figure. Jones has been the hot one lately, but it feels just like guessing which one. Illinois State has had some games they gave up yards to QBs. Not in the playoffs so much, Payton finished with -14 and Pinnick only ran for 26y on them. But in the regular season SIU's DJ Williams ran for 134y, Ind St's Patterson ran for 30y, UNI Dailey 40y, Brungard hit them for 200y on the ground and even the Murray QB ran for 39y. Then in the first game Payton ran for 79y and UNA's QB ran for 60y. Lamson Over rush would be good, but they have it at 48.5 and that feels a little high to bet considering how many rushing options MSU has.
 
Both QBs Over 1.5 TD passes at +$ is interesting. MSU has 44 rushing TDs and 25 passing TDs but Lamson has passed for 2 or more 8x this year including 2 of 3 in the playoffs. Illinois State gets more TDs through the air than the ground (38 vs 23) and Rittenhouse has passed for 2 or more TDs in 11 of 16 games this year including 3 straight in the playoffs...their first playoff game, SLU, no QBs threw a TD in that game. Both at +$ betting both to get Over 1.5, if one of them does it then overall it makes money. MSU has not allowed more than 1 TD pass in the last 4 games however. Rittenhouse's style and play calling will challenge that. Think I am going to take both QBs Over 1.5 passing TDs at +119 and +123 and just hope that atleast one of them does and maybe they both do (last year Payton and Mallott both threw for 2).
 
Think Montana St might crush them

Couple weeks thinking about it can't be great for Cinderella, going to lay something at some point pregame but save more for live

No props or team totals available in this dojo
 
I really do not know how the side or total plays out for either team. My mind just can't seem to forsee it, and I kind of don't even want to try honestly. But these prop options are pleasing to me. Bovada has some alt options. I took a lower juiced and a higher +$ Dowler receiving yardage total there.
 
Just don’t have a read on this one at the current line, so gonna sit back and enjoy it instead of forcing something I might regret later. Been a fun ride fellas!
 
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enjoy it guys.

I played over 56.5 and montana state team total over 33.5.

Fun ride for Illinois State and they could keep pace here, but this team did surrender 36 against North Alabama, 32 against Murray State, 30 against Eastern Illinois, and have now had time to think about it after the magical 4-game run.

I think MSU scores in the 40's tonight.
 
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It's air Montana State! Would assume the 2H is where they turn to the run
 
Not counting RBs, every Montana State WR/TE (4 of them) went Over their yardage total for the game in the 1H.
 
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+ 2 rush TDs on the ground. Lamson going to be a MSU legend (Tommy who?)
 
Great 2H by Illinois State. The choking by Montana State is unreal.
 
Wow is right. Man that was extremely interesting and dramatic!
 
Illinois QB is pissed that they didn't they didn't just go win it in regulation. He was pissed then. Probably more now.

Gut wrenching.
 
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