Playoffs in the FCS

s--k said:
I had thought there could be an opportunity to take South Carolina State live if they are down or start slow. Last played November 22nd. PV played last week. So PV could be a little more game speed ready off the bat.
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I'm in if SCSt get down by 8 or more
 
I do like the fact for SC State that they were here last year, competed very poorly offensively so for the players that are still here (not many of the key ones) and the coaches, preparing to atone for that bad game I like that intangible. The one stain on their season on the biggest HBCU stage and they get to make up for that this year. Looked back, forgot, or surprised to see it now, SC State was actually -3 in that game vs Jackson. They didn't appear ready for it last year.
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m about to hit the kiosk(FD)…gonna take a stab with Tarleton I guess?
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Pretty sure everyone likes Tarleton to win and they should cover. A lot of things would have to go right for Villanova I would suspect whereas a normal Tarleton game should be good enough in this matchup. I personally have not decided how to play it yet other than I have them on a 3-team teaser that sits 1-0 after last night.
 
KJ said:
It's -400.

You put in $800 and get $1000 back if you win. So you gained 25% of your initial wager.
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Yes you're correct. I know I shouldn't be doing math in my head without my morning wake and bake.
 
the way this playoffs have gone, should've saw it coming

Think I'm going to call it a year. Playoffs are telling me to do so. Up about 9 dimes on the regular season, lost nearly 2 dimes the last 2.5 weeks
 
I'd rather go cold at the end of the year and have great memories of the season and stop trying to figure things out that just keep going wrong
 
s--k said:
A smart live player would've put a little something on South Carolina State down 21 and Villanova down 14 to win. Pretty wild FCS post season
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One of the craziest my dad has ever seen. Said it started to get real interesting when they went to 16 schools in 1986...He doesn't remember it ever being this unpredictable on a game to game basis ever .
 
Watching Montana game now as my first is the over 58.5. Also have UCD +1.5 and just realized it already started haha
 
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s--k said:
the way this playoffs have gone, should've saw it coming

Think I'm going to call it a year. Playoffs are telling me to do so. Up about 9 dimes on the regular season, lost nearly 2 dimes the last 2.5 weeks
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im sorry mate. same boat. lost every single play this weekend.
 
s--k said:
the way this playoffs have gone, should've saw it coming

Think I'm going to call it a year. Playoffs are telling me to do so. Up about 9 dimes on the regular season, lost nearly 2 dimes the last 2.5 weeks
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Man you're so good at this, it's been so random that 'Nova makes it to the final four

I think all your knowledge of this sport should lead you to a bit of fun live betting their game next weekend. I'll be watching and betting.
 
If it was in season I would definitely keep digging. I very much enjoyed this year, but everything is forced right now and strange outcomes are happening and I'm not reading the tea leaves the same way. I'm picking some live stuff here and there, but just super casual. I really don't want to work at it any more when the results aren't coming. I'm more excited to start 2026 work right now that try to figure out what's left of 2025. It's fine.
 
Just withdrew a grand from FD, so only 1k left there. Already emptied out BM a few days ago as I am pretty much treading water at this point at 5-3 in the playoffs after UCD failed to deliver. Leaving enough in to put something down for the semis and finals but probably won't waste much time on the fbs bowl games as the transfer portal, players sitting out, etc makes those games too uncertain to bother with.
 
As hot as Montana is right now, not sure that game gets more Cats action than Griz
 
s--k said:
As hot as Montana is right now, not sure that game gets more Cats action than Griz
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Line now down to 3.5 so will probably pass at this point and just stick to the single play on ISU which is now down to 2.5. Seems like I end up splitting when I have two anyway.
 
A lot of time for those lines to move between now and next week. As I've said before, I personally wish the lines would just come out on gameday morning again. It doesn't matter with only 2 or a few games to me, but I like to get my shit figured out before I have to consider an opening line and it takes me a while sometimes.

That Montana State - Montana game a few weeks ago was really really good. Just a couple key plays determined who won. This one could go either way.

As much as I have lost in the games involving Illinois State - Villanova, that is actually a cool game and I'm happy each of these teams has a chance. Do think Illinois State is a stronger team overall. Still hard for me to believe that Tarleton lost to Nova.
 
I don't get the Montana St./Montana line. A few weeks back they were giving the same number on the road. Take away 2 points for hfa Montana and add 2 for Montana St now being at home and this should be at minimum -7. If I had to speculate on where it closes I believe it will close -6/-7. Would be really surprised if it stayed in the -3/4 range. I still have to dig into the matchup but opener seems low.
 
NSRankings said:
I don't get the Montana St./Montana line. A few weeks back they were giving the same number on the road. Take away 2 points for hfa Montana and add 2 for Montana St now being at home and this should be at minimum -7. If I had to speculate on where it closes I believe it will close -6/-7. Would be really surprised if it stayed in the -3/4 range. I still have to dig into the matchup but opener seems low.
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I’m hoping to get 7.5 at a decent price but don’t think it gets there so will probably just stick with my ISU 3.5 as I think that one is a coin flip so like getting the 3.5 there
 
Massey


DateTeamStandScrPredPwinMOVTotal
Sat 12.20Illinois St
@ Villanova
playoff		# 6 (11-4)
# 7 (12-2)		0
0		24
27		44 %
56 %
-2.5		51.5
Sat 12.20Montana
@ Montana St
playoff		# 3 (13-1)
# 2 (12-2)		0
0		28
35		30 %
70 %
-6.5		65.5


Sagarin
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.17 2.94 3.17 3.42 3.42

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL

11 @ Villanova 30.56 30.62 32.41 31.99 32.13 Marist 1711 94% 40.35 6.36 46.71

12 @ Montana State 6.22 7.21 5.88 5.83 4.22 Montana 197 66% 33.95 25.03 58.98


Reddit

/r/FCS Sportsbook - FCS Games

12/20: Illinois State @ Villanova -4.5 (O/U 53.5)

12/20: Montana @ Montana State -6.5 (O/U 57.5)


S&P+


Montana State 32.7, Montana 29.2

Villanova 29.5, Illinois State 24.9


Sagarin has the matchup wrong for Villanova - Illinois State and instead has Villanova - Marist. So for that one Villanova 63.85 - Illinois State 63.36 = -.49 + 3.17 HF = -3.66
 
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As for the Montana - Montana State number open/move/current - I must assume early bettors think that any points are valuable regardless of location. It was a 3 point game last time and maybe their expectation is that is could be similar this time?
 
Here is the S&P rank for Montana - Montana State from week 13


teamconferenceRec.SP+rkpctileOff. SP+rkDef. SP+rkLast WkChg
Montana StateBig Sky9-224.2597.7%39.4815.274-1
MontanaBig Sky11-022.3696.7%43.7221.43071



And now


teamconferenceRec.SP+rkpctileOff. SP+rkDef. SP+rkLast WkChg
Montana StateBig Sky12-223.6397.840.2716.5630
MontanaBig Sky13-122.6497.3%44.8222.23551

​
 
Second year in a row a massive rivalry decides the semi-finals and sends a team to the title game. Last year SDSU and NDSU played in Fargo in the regular season, NDSU +1.5 won 13-9 and again in Fargo in the semis NDSU +3.5 won 28-21. SDSU had slight yardage edges in both games, but were -1 TO in each. This will be the first Montana - Montana State rematch in the postseason
 
I won’t be surprised if Montana wins SU as I considered taking both dogs ML at positive money, as I think at least one will hit, but ultimately decided to take ISU +3.5 first and wait and see on Montana as I wasn’t sure if the 5.5 would hit 3 or 7 first, so no reason to rush in my view.
 
Montana State line has gone from -5.5 115 to 3.5 105 to -4.5 110. Will definitely keep an eye on things as the week progresses.
 
Get-in price for the Brawl of the Wild (Montana vs. Montana State) is $675. Highest get-in for the FBS games is $350 for Miami / A&M.

Stadium sizes are obviously apples to bananas but still. Shame that the Brawl is right in the middle of Saturday afternoon.

I may watch more of th FCS game than Tulane / Ole Miss. Or at least alternate a lot.
 
Interesting to see Montana St. -6, now -5.5 -115 at bookmaker (sports 411) on the screen, when two of the squarer books are at -4. (DK and theScore aka ESPN). Bookmaker usually opens Saturday 9-10am during the season and everyone copies moves after they take initial action. Played some Montana St. -3.5 earlier and recently -4. Will be curious to see what happens after some other sharper books open and take some action. Would think BOL would move up if the bookmaker line is sharpest but we will see. Regardless should be a great game and I'm on Montana St. (attached what I'm currently seeing on screen)
 

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Montana state line continues to creep higher as it is now 6 115 at BM and FD should hit 6 shortly. Going to play the waiting game on Montana, as I want to maximize the points with 10.5 <200 being the ultimate goal, but anything over 8 will be a play. No reason for me to rush as 8.5 188 is already out there.
 
Looks like MSU not going higher than 6.5? Can buy UM to 7.5 -136 at BM. Can't buy at BV. FD can buy anything; +7.5 -142 and +8.5 -156

I might do a MSU ML / UM +7.5 or 8.5 just to try and have something in the game. Or wait live I guess
 
1766332475083.png

Kind of crazy Montana couldn't cover some of the high live numbers (like +15.5 and 17.5) after they took the lead in the 3Q. I didn't really watch either of these games, but had them on in the background and had some live Montana bets. I glanced at the score as it was ending and was like "good they lost by 15"....then later I see the final score again, damn...that isn't 15, it's 25!

Cinderella Red Birds have made it to the ball!
 
Here's what I have for title game. Close to market. My guess it closes -10 or more. No play for me if it stays in this area. I have a Montana St. +550 ticket to win title I played before the tournament started. Only one I have left I as I played three others that aren't alive. So may just ride that out unless something stands out when digging more into the matchup.

Illinois St.22.24Montana St.33.4955.7311.25-11.2501/05/2026*NEUTRAL*
 
Not seeing anything I like for the championship so might call it a season, and just enjoy the game as I don’t see the line offering much value between now and then but we’ll see.
 
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I'm not going to be around much next couple weeks and don't have much to talk about anyway. With Christmas and New Years coming up, I hope you guys do great with your bowl bets and enjoy your friends and families. See you in about 2 weeks before the game I suppose.
 
Not on these games but been interesting watching Jimmy Rogers put the staff together for ISU. It's basically SDSU and NDSU at the three main positions. Rogers was always bringing Bobbit on at DC as both SDSU connections go deep and they went together to WSU. Now bringing back Roehl to ISU after a season in the NFL is ideal. He was OC at NDSU. Building a complete coaching staff from the Dakota schools makes this more interesting to me than just being a fan of the team.
 
The Montana at Montana State FCS semifinal game on ABC was the most-watched FCS playoff game on record, averaging 2.8 million viewers.

ESPN2’s Illinois State at Villanova game averaged about 400,000 viewers. The average of 1.6M viewers is the most-watched semifinals since 2009.

For comparison, last year’s FCS semifinals had two games on ABC, which draws more eyeballs than ESPN2. SDSU at NDSU on ABC averaged 1.58M viewers. South Dakota at Montana State on ABC averaged 1.37M. Last season’s title game of NDSU vs. Montana State on ESPN drew 2.41M.

This comes a week after the quarterfinal round drew its highest average audience since 2011.

Viewership for the six FCS playoff games so far on national TV is up 13% from the comparable six games on networks prior to the title game last year.
 
I watched the fewest bowl games ever Christmas - New Year's and man was it liberating! I am pretty checked out of college handicapping right now, but looking forward to watching the game tomorrow.

Over the weekend, so awesome for Beau Brungard to win the Walter Payton. It is ironic that after the votes were due, YSU lost to Yale and Brungard did not finish that game well. And ALL these people were like "he's undeserving, you can't lose to Yale and win the Payton, etc, etc - Cole Payton is the best player in the country, Brungard isn't even the best QB in his own league". And then, the very next week, Cole Payton lays an absolute egg in the Illinois State loss. So much for that argument! And the best part about Brungard winning the award is that it follows his announcement to return to YSU for 2026! Love it when FCS' best players stay put!

Cole Gonzales was the big deal QB at WCU before Dickens. He has since transferred to Oklahoma, then Pitt and is now in the portal again. Now the other Payton Award finalist and latest big deal WCU QB, Taron Dickens is following suit. Hooray for those that stay.
 
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