Playoffs in the FCS

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If nobody knew any better they would've thought the team on the left would be NDSU and the team on the right would be Illinois State
 
All but TWO of NDSU's offensive possessions were 25 yards or less and of those 11 seven were single digit yards or negative yards. If Rittenhouse didn't throw FIVE INTs this game wouldn't have been as close as it was
 
After all that craziness and the 0-2 start, somehow managed to clear some profit on my six pack strategy, finishing 4-2 thanks to the alt line on ACU but definitely took the long way to get there. Going to keep it simple this week as that was way too stressful especially at the end as I thought SFA was gonna punch it in.
 
s--k said:
All but TWO of NDSU's offensive possessions were 25 yards or less and of those 11 seven were single digit yards or negative yards. If Rittenhouse didn't throw FIVE INTs this game wouldn't have been as close as it was
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That was such a weird game especially given how dominant the NDSU pressure was early on. Every time they got an INT it looked like lights out but the offense was just off, it was weird. I give ISU credit though, because they never stopped fighting and made adjustments throughout.
 
I finished down a nickle. NDSU ML was only loss on a round robin of 5 team parlays or would've been up and they were only loss on another 4 team parlay. NDSU -13.5 lost 10pt 3-team teaser. They didn't deserve to win by 14, but they were up by 14 in the 4Q and had a chance to add to it...but whatever. None of my middle attempts panned out.

I said before the games I had 64 bets, I didn't, my spreadsheet shows both wins/losses until I update it so I had 32 pregame bets and finished with live and teasers, parlays - 29-31. Weeks 0-13 I went 935-616 with 11 winning weeks and 3 losing weeks, in the two playoff weeks 14 & 15 I have gone a combined 49-55 lost money both weeks
 
Montana State up 2pts from 8.5 to 10.5.

UCD up 3pts from +1.5 to -2.5

Tarleton down 1pt from 9.5 to 8.5

Montana down 1pt from 7.5 to 6.5
 
steponaduck said:
i think villanova is in major major trouble this weekend.
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Yeah not sure they can keep up as even though I lost on Lehigh, I watched almost the entire game and their only shot in my view is to completely ugly this one up but even then they may lose by 10. Like seeing this line go down though as I would like 6.5 at decent juice.
 
Just seeing Monday night that lines came out Monday morning. Been busy all day - actually went snowmobiling! Good early season snow in the rockies!

Tarleton has occasionally had some run D issues - Chattanooga, Southern Utah, ACU and Austin Peay. SUU started their #2 QB who ran for a lot, but Dye had a lot on them as well and Parsons had the game of his life in the finale. Actually UTC had Orth who ran for a lot on them too. Earle of ACU did not run much. But point being in 3 of those 4 games that Tarleton gave up a lot on the ground it was due to significant contributions from a mobile QB - Earle is mobile he just wasn't or didn't need to be a factor. Villanova QB is not a running threat. So maybe that helps Tarleton run D vs Nova run O?

Villanova would need to play a game like Eastern Kentucky did in beating Tarleton last year. EKU ran for 243 and got 3 Gabalis INTs and won as 10.5 pt dog at Tarleton. Gabalis was just forcing balls to Cooper in that game. He hasn't done anything like that since. Would think the Villanova D is really going to be up against it vs this Tarleton O. Only question is will Tarleton run D be good enough?
 
Massey


DateTeamStandingScrPredPwinMarginTotal
Fri 12.12SF Austin
@ Montana St
playoff		# 10 (11-2)
# 2 (11-2)		0
0		17
35		8 %
92 %
-17.5		55.5
Sat 12.13
12:00.PM.ET		Prairie View
S Carolina St
Celebration Bowl @ Atlanta, GA		# 66 (10-3)
# 47 (9-3)		0
0		21
28		30 %
70 %
-6.5		52.5
Sat 12.13Illinois St
@ UC Davis
playoff		# 8 (10-4)
# 9 (9-3)		0
0		27
31		36 %
64 %
-4.5		59.5
Sat 12.13Villanova
@ Tarleton St
playoff		# 11 (11-2)
# 4 (12-1)		0
0		24
34		21 %
79 %
-9.5		56.5
Sat 12.13South Dakota
@ Montana
playoff		# 6 (10-4)
# 3 (12-1)		0
0		28
33		36 %
64 %
-4.5		62.5

Sagarin

College Football 2025 ratings through games of 2025 December 6 Saturday - Week 15
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.19 2.96 3.18 3.43 3.43
FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL
1 @ Montana State 14.16 15.50 14.55 13.47 12.04 Stephen F. Austin 430 81% 33.27 18.29 51.56

3 @ Tarleton State 9.18 10.37 8.32 9.45 10.04 Villanova 266 73% 37.35 17.77 55.12
4 @ Montana 8.79 7.78 8.86 10.47 11.59 South Dakota 256 72% 37.11 21.98 59.09
5 @ UC Davis 2.43 1.77 4.01 1.34 -1.70 Illinois State 131 57% 30.70 26.38 57.08

No Celebration Bowl from Jeff. Here's his rating for them:
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT

159 SC State AA = 51.10 9 3 44.61( 222) 0 0 | 0 1 | 48.65 174 | 52.01 156 | 49.77 151 | 52.40 135 MEAC

153 Prairie View A&M AA = 51.85 10 3 39.87( 258) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.03 154 | 49.98 166 | 51.88 139 | 56.85 120 SWAC-WEST

Reddit


/r/FCS Sportsbook - FCS Games
12/12: Stephen F. Austin @ Montana State -11.5 (O/U 53.5)
12/13: Illinois State @ UC Davis -2.5 (O/U 56.5)
12/13: Prairie View A&M vs. South Carolina State -3 (O/U 53)
12/13: South Dakota @ Montana -10 (O/U 56.5)
12/13: Villanova @ Tarleton -14 (O/U 55.5)


S&P+


Montana State 28.5, Stephen F. Austin 22.9
Montana 33.6, South Dakota 23.6
Tarleton State 33.7, Villanova 21.4
UC Davis 30.5, Illinois State 30.3
Celebration Bowl
SC State 25.3, Prairie View A&M 25.1



I haven't thought these PRs have been helpful this offseason. Really I enjoy looking at them before lines come out and this week we already have lines but for completeness and consistency I will post them here. Unlikely I do much on football considerations until I am back home Thursday. My football considerations haven't been worth much this post season anyway.
 
Have tried to follow this thread during the season and it's been insightful. Nice to read FCS thoughts. I've bet it for years but there isn't much sharp talk around it online, frankly because it's hard to get down especially if you have strong edges and that edge usually evaporates if things are posted publicly.

I registered an account to chime in occasionally. I like and have played Tarleton this week. Agree that Villanova post game from last week's win looks terrible. Tarleton should be able to move the ball vs. Nova. I make it over 2 touchdowns and expect it to close near -13/-14.

Villanova22.82Tarleton State37.7660.5814.94-14.9412/13/2025
 
NSRankings said:
Have tried to follow this thread during the season and it's been insightful. Nice to read FCS thoughts. I've bet it for years but there isn't much sharp talk around it online, frankly because it's hard to get down especially if you have strong edges and that edge usually evaporates if things are posted publicly.

I registered an account to chime in occasionally. I like and have played Tarleton this week. Agree that Villanova post game from last week's win looks terrible. Tarleton should be able to move the ball vs. Nova. I make it over 2 touchdowns and expect it to close near -13/-14.


Villanova22.82Tarleton State37.7660.5814.94-14.9412/13/2025
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Welcome to the thread NSR, really appreciate you jumping in and contributing out of the gate! Looking forward to checking out your posts the rest of the way and best of luck this weekend!
 
SC State -1.5 106 at FD with early money coming in on PVAM. Total is 51.5 and I like the under but I hate betting unders. Kinda surprised SC State isn’t at least -2.5-3.5 so will wait on this one so I can get a better price on the ML if I do decide to move forward.
 
Looking to find another three way alt dance at <200 each most likely involving the Tarleton game, Montana State game and SC State game.
 

Tarleton announces that, not only will $1 beer be back against Nova, but $1 Hot dogs as well.​



Also giving out free rally towels and the weathers looking to be in the 60s again. REALLY looking forward to being there. This saturday was electric, especially once the shirtless section grew.

They are looking to pack the stadium.
 
A few hours from first game. Going to see how I feel about these games.

First I can't stop thinking about some of the crazy events that have taken place this playoffs.

NDSU losing in their first game- not just losing but really being statistically dominated, at home!

Illinois State wins despite throwing FIVE INTs!

Montana State QB Lamson plays probably his most complete game of the season in the regular ssn finale Brawl at Montana, then follows that up with arguably his worst game vs Yale.

Yale comes from 28 pts down in the final 20 minutes vs YSU to win and then follows that up out-gaining, out-first downing and converting better 3rd down O vs Montana State

Harvard averages 39.4ppg on O in the regular season and 461ypg, they get held to 7 and 213 losing to Villanova

Villanova goes for 52pts and 512 total yards round 1 vs Harvard and then can barely manage 14pts and 230 yards in beating Lehigh.

Lehigh does not lose a single fumble all season and then loses 2 very costly fumbles in their home loss to Villanova.

47-0! South Dakota beats Mercer....Forty Seven to Zero!

The top 2 finalists for the Walter Payton Award, Beau Brungard and Cole Payton go MIA when their team needed them most in the final minutes of the 4Q (Payton was injured on a sack fumble, but even before that).

Montana hangs FIFTY 5-0 on South Dakota State D!

Stephen F Austin's D has been one of the best all year - they allow a season high 34pts and 419y (160y over their avg) in their playoff game. And SFA's O has been limited vs a handful of other quality opponents they have played this year (held under 340y 3x vs FCS this year), but in the playoffs they go from a season avg of 382ypg on O to 502!

UC Davis is losing at HT vs Rhode Island by 2 then goes on to win by 21

Home favorites go 29-1 straight up in second round the last 4 years, last week they went just 5-3

I find it rather stunning all that has taken place so far this playoffs.
 
Point in all that being, knowing what team is going to take the field in any given game seems difficult this post season, at least for me
 
Fun weekend for the FCS

Love Montana team total if you get it, I won't but doesn't mean I'm not pulling for it
 
Maybe the SFA D is just a byproduct of playing in the Southland? Very possible. However, I thought their D in the opener at Houston played really well (UH had five 3-and-outs and a 4-and-out and were held to a season low 4.7ypp on O). Last week SFA was run on a lot by ACU 211y (6.8), but their pass D was strong (54% 0-1 ratio allowed and just 5.6ypa). The official stats credit SFA D with 18! 18 QB hurries last week! Still ACU led that game 34-31 mid 4Q before SFA won it 41-34.

SFA's O suprised me last week, they do have quality and capable game changing players, they just have had a lot of games that they hadn't really done a lot with it. But it all kind of hit for them last week, mostly Vidlak and the passing game, one big run boosted the rush numbers.

Montana State O was 'off' last week vs Yale. It was in the same vein of the Cal Poly game, just worse. Interesting that Cal Poly also followed a bye just at the Yale playoff game did. It would seem that Montana State run O is going to do very well vs SFA. SFA secondary is their strength and the Cats passing game generally lacks. Sometimes Dowler can have a big game, but MSU doesn't have much of a threat outside of what they can design for him.

MSU D suprisingly hasn't gotten a lot of pressure by the stats I look at. How the QBH data is calculated vs what somebody like PFF might have can vary a lot. 18 QBH for SFA wasn't an outlier for them (they had 17 vs Lamar also), but it is certainly an outlier from what I see other teams having in the offical pdf box scores. I am not sure what any of the pressure rate stats say. MSU did have a great game harrassing and sacking Pinnick from Davis, but they did not vs Yale or Montana in the last 2 games. It seems their pressure is inconsistent. And they can also give up some pass yards and a high percentage of completions to teams. Ah Yat was 26-of-32 vs them.

The way that Montana State played last week offensively coupled with the home night game on ESPN and some of the storylines following game last week, it kind of lines up that one would think they are going to play inspired this game.

I think I still respect the SFA D...they would seem vulnerable vs the run which is bad vs MSU obviously, but maybe their strength in the secondary can allow them to commit more vs the run?

From carolinablue's post I see the line opened at 8.5 and is now 14.5/15! It is hard for me to want to lay that, but very possible MSU wins by that.

Thinking of giving 1H SFA +8.5 a try. I can see a 1H that may be competitive and a 2H were MSU pulls away. The last 3 games MSU has only led UCD 14-7, UM 17-14 and Yale 7-0 at HT. Vs the 4th playoff team that MSU has played they were tied 10-10 at HT home vs SDSU. The only team with a winning record MSU actually had a good HT lead against was at NAU 20-7 which was thanks to a punt ret TD. That would make them 1-4 ATS 1H if favored by more than a TD as they are here 1H vs SFA.

Speaking of punt ret TD, SFA has been great at non-offensive TDs this year, I count atleast 6...but they came vs the weak SLC and 2 were vs Dll opponent.

It is going to be on the cold side (36) but SFA got kind of lucky with the weather, no cold rain, snow or below freezing temperatures.

I thought the SFA D would be better than their O last week, it was not. In this game I will assume their D will again be better than their O as it has been in several games this year which leads me to another SFA full game Under, think I feel better about that than SFA 1H actually. If Lamar kept a lid on this SFA O, as other teams have earlier in the year, I would think Montana State can right?
 
Last edited:
steponaduck said:
SFA defense is so buttoned up. why cant they show up here and create some issues for the Cats?
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I tend to think it is possible, concerns being SFA D good vs SLC type teams might equal D not good vs better quality teams (ACU run game vs them last week is an issue)?

Montana St passing game is not going to do well vs SFA I do not think 1) because SFA secondary players are so good and 2) Montana State lacks weapons to do it for the most part.

So it all comes down to how Cats can get it done on the ground vs them.
 
steponaduck said:
SFA defense is so buttoned up. why cant they show up here and create some issues for the Cats?
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I just don’t know if SFA can hang for a full 60 minutes taking “body blows” throughout. Don’t have anything I like in this one as I considered the over early hit the total kept rising. Hoping for an entertaining one!
 
Ol buddy was an account rep in the mortgage biz, recruited by USC and got hurt. Ended up in Mizzoula. Was a LB. Enjoyed watching Grizz games with him when we could get them, before ESPN+.

Wisely got out of the mortgage biz and got a sales job in cyber security based in Charlotte CB. Couple kids were still in HS in Chandler so flew back to Phx every weekend while wifey held down the fort here then they moved to Charlotte or a burb. Miss that dude, he had hookups for any event you could ever want to go to.
 
KJ said:
Ol buddy was an account rep in the mortgage biz, recruited by USC and got hurt. Ended up in Mizzoula. Was a LB. Enjoyed watching Grizz games with him when we could get them, before ESPN+.

Wisely got out of the mortgage biz and got a sales job in cyber security based in Charlotte CB. Couple kids were still in HS in Chandler so flew back to Phx every weekend while wifey held down the fort here then they moved to Charlotte or a burb. Miss that dude, he had hookups for any event you could ever want to go to.
Click to expand...

Message him tomorrow and see if he's going to watch the game!
 
s--k said:
Message him tomorrow and see if he's going to watch the game!
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Only contact now is wifey on FB so I'll shout out. He doesn't do social media and I haven't talked to him since he moved. Such is life as a transient...people come and go but man they were fun!
 
KJ said:
Only contact now is wifey on FB so I'll shout out. He doesn't do social media and I haven't talked to him since he moved. Such is life as a transient...people come and go but man they were fun!
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Curious to know which part of Charlotte so let me know if you find out
 
I just went 0-8 1H primarly because these fucking teams scored 15 points in final minute-and-half. Live Unders 24.5, pregame 1H Under 28.5, pissed away
 
final tally 13-17-1 not bad I guess considering the 0-8 start

These playoff games have been like trying to catch a falling knife for me. 3 months of teams showing who they are in the regular season and then it's out the window in the playoffs
 
s--k said:
A few hours from first game. Going to see how I feel about these games.

First I can't stop thinking about some of the crazy events that have taken place this playoffs.

NDSU losing in their first game- not just losing but really being statistically dominated, at home!

Illinois State wins despite throwing FIVE INTs!

Montana State QB Lamson plays probably his most complete game of the season in the regular ssn finale Brawl at Montana, then follows that up with arguably his worst game vs Yale.

Yale comes from 28 pts down in the final 20 minutes vs YSU to win and then follows that up out-gaining, out-first downing and converting better 3rd down O vs Montana State

Harvard averages 39.4ppg on O in the regular season and 461ypg, they get held to 7 and 213 losing to Villanova

Villanova goes for 52pts and 512 total yards round 1 vs Harvard and then can barely manage 14pts and 230 yards in beating Lehigh.

Lehigh does not lose a single fumble all season and then loses 2 very costly fumbles in their home loss to Villanova.

47-0! South Dakota beats Mercer....Forty Seven to Zero!

The top 2 finalists for the Walter Payton Award, Beau Brungard and Cole Payton go MIA when their team needed them most in the final minutes of the 4Q (Payton was injured on a sack fumble, but even before that).

Montana hangs FIFTY 5-0 on South Dakota State D!

Stephen F Austin's D has been one of the best all year - they allow a season high 34pts and 419y (160y over their avg) in their playoff game. And SFA's O has been limited vs a handful of other quality opponents they have played this year (held under 340y 3x vs FCS this year), but in the playoffs they go from a season avg of 382ypg on O to 502!

UC Davis is losing at HT vs Rhode Island by 2 then goes on to win by 21

Home favorites go 29-1 straight up in second round the last 4 years, last week they went just 5-3

I find it rather stunning all that has taken place so far this playoffs.
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Definitely the wildest playoffs I can remember, we have a historically great FCS playoff capper here in WNY ..Sells his pick for $15 weekly , he's currently 3-12 down some serious cash after SFA failed to cover last night ..Those picks include 0-3 on his largest bets ...
He hasn't had a losing FCS playoff in 11 years and only 4 losing seasons overall since 1992 ..

For what it's worth he's heavy on South Dakota +7.5 today for 6 U, also on Cal Davis -2.5 and Nova +11.5 for 1.5 unit each
 
Never compared the marketplace to gambling lines so decided to give it a whirl with the Nova/Tarleton game.

ML is -450 at every place I look at, this exchange price is -400 at the moment. Fascinating, I don't have money in the exchange markets but that's significant.

1765635620921.png
 
There are definitely good solid wins and handicaps to be had. We've seen some in this thread and by our members. I think the data that I am using to form opinions is leading me to incorrect results, or I am not properly analyzing that data.

I started keeping very detailed records last year on a spreadsheet. First 2 rounds last year (including SWAC) I was 73-38, this year 49-54
 
s--k said:
There are definitely good solid wins and handicaps to be had. We've seen some in this thread and by our members. I think the data that I am using to form opinions is leading me to incorrect results, or I am not properly analyzing that data.

I started keeping very detailed records last year on a spreadsheet. First 2 rounds last year (including SWAC) I was 73-38, this year 49-54
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Wow 73-38 is amazing ...And to be honest 49-54 is good for this highly unpredictable season .
 
KJ said:
Never compared the marketplace to gambling lines so decided to give it a whirl with the Nova/Tarleton game.

ML is -450 at every place I look at, this exchange price is -400 at the moment. Fascinating, I don't have money in the exchange markets but that's significant.

View attachment 105509
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can you just clarify a little? If you want to take Tarleton to win, you put up $1.00 to win .80?
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Wow 73-38 is amazing ...And to be honest 49-54 is good for this highly unpredictable season .
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The numbers can lie, the volume in the playoffs is live and those bets are $10 to $20 each. The pregame bets are $100 to $50 each. So last night I went 1-4 on bets worth $50 or more and won a bunch of $10-20 live bets.
 
oakas said:

Tarleton announces that, not only will $1 beer be back against Nova, but $1 Hot dogs as well.​



Also giving out free rally towels and the weathers looking to be in the 60s again. REALLY looking forward to being there. This saturday was electric, especially once the shirtless section grew.

They are looking to pack the stadium.
Click to expand...



Boom , thank you for this post ...Already planned on taking Tarleton State ...

Have a fantastic time brother
 
Exchange markets are pretty new. It's a way to legally gamble in all 50 states basically. You can short futures on many markets basically or in this case if you bet on Tarleton to win the game you're getting -400 on Kalshi. There are other markets out there as well.

It's regulated because there are people backing "no" at the rate that's listed basically. The difference between the yes and no against 100 is their fee I assume so low juice. I've not done it but paying attention.
 
I'm going against the steam and played S. Carolina St. ML +115/+120. Prarie View playing well of late but I just can't get to this number. I have:

Prairie View A&M25.1S. Carolina St.29.2654.364.16-4.1612/13/2025
 
NSRankings said:
I'm going against the steam and played S. Carolina St. ML +115/+120. Prarie View playing well of late but I just can't get to this number. I have:


Prairie View A&M25.1S. Carolina St.29.2654.364.16-4.1612/13/2025
Click to expand...
I called out in the thread earlier that I was surprised when SCST was such a light fav at open as I was expecting -3 but then it kept moving towards PVAM getting as high as SCST +1.5 104. Was going to alt line SCST with a couple dance partners but not a lot to choose from unfortunately. Definitely agree on SCST though best of luck today man!
 
I had thought there could be an opportunity to take South Carolina State live if they are down or start slow. Last played November 22nd. PV played last week. So PV could be a little more game speed ready off the bat.
 
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