Playoffs Discussion

Bryson seems really full of himself. The type of person who feels he's the smartest in the room wherever he goes... I don't think the talk about slow play will affect him much. Until they make changes to the rule,i think he will be ok. Any changes won't take place until next season.
 
RBTrojan said:
Bryson seems really full of himself. The type of person who feels he's the smartest in the room wherever he goes... I don't think the talk about slow play will affect him much. Until they make changes to the rule,i think he will be ok. Any changes won't take place until next season.
Click to expand...
Agree.
 
Been struggling a big with these tournament plays but going to take a swing on a few this week:

Ancer -120 vs Sabbatini: I like the momentum Ancer has going of late and not a huge Sabbatini fan...

Kooch +115 vs Hideki: Both guys are having solid seasons but I will take the price on Matt vs Hideki who has been struggling since the Open

My gut is telling me to fade Woodland with Xander round one after the birth of his twin girls a few weeks ago but going to wait for round match ups after opening day...

good luck guys
 
SCENARIOS TO ADVANCE
PlayerCurrent pointsSolo projected finish for top 30
23. Charles Howell III 1,279 70th
24. Tommy Fleetwood1,23444th
25. Shane Lowry1,16229th
26. Sungjae Im1,16128th
27. Corey Conners1,12623rd
28. Louis Oosthuizen1,10921st
29. Harold Varner III1,10821st
30. Andrew Putnam1,10020th
31. Ryan Palmer1,09619th
32. Jason Kokrak1,08217th
33. Hideki Matsuyama1,06115th
34. Francesco Molinari1,06115th
35. Scott Piercy1,03812th
36. J.T. Poston1,03412th
37. C.T. Pan1,03312th
38. Tiger Woods1,00311th
39. Billy Horschel99910th
40. Kevin Tway99610th
41. Lucas Glover98710th
42. Sung Kang98610th
43. Ian Poulter98010th
44. Jordan Spieth9609th
45. Rory Sabbatini9367th
46. Phil Mickelson9136th
47. Keith Mitchell9006th
48. Jim Furyk8906th
49. Ryan Moore8785th
50. Jason Day8655th
51. Adam Hadwin8595th
52. J.B. Holmes8405th
53. Si Woo Kim8384th
54. Nate Lashley8364th
55. Kevin Na823Has withdrawn
56. Max Homa8064th
57. Collin Morikawa8054th
58. Cameron Champ8034th
59. Troy Merritt7974th
60. Dylan Frittelli7764th
61. Byeong Hun An7744th
62. Vaughn Taylor7333rd
63. Joel Dahmen7293rd
64. Graeme McDowell7293rd
65. Adam Long7193rd
66. Keegan Bradley7163rd
67. Rafa Cabrera Bello6963rd
68. Wyndham Clark6793rd
69. Emiliano Grillo6733rd
70. Joaquin Niemann6593rd
 
Just because i pretty much can't help myself....2nd rounders for 1/2 unit each

BH -105 over Tiger
Koepka -111 over Rory
Shauflie -146 over Ancer
SJ Im -110 over Lowry
 
Riding with you on the Im bet. Good luck today.

not understanding the line movement against Clark.... I'm passing on the play but he sure seems great value today over Niemann
 
Tour championship.

Please play to a -12 or so....

I don't need to watch another Bob Hope Desert Classic.
 
Can't imagine how tough it is for JT sleeping on the lead for 4 nights in a row
 
Did some research on the past 3 Tour Championships. Last 3 years winning final total was -11, -12, -12
In 2015 the winning score was -9

Here was the scoring breakdown for 89 rounds (1 withdraw) Final scores:

-12 4x
-11 2x
-10 2x
-9 3x
-8 1x
-7 4x
-6 7x
-5 7x
-4 7x
-3 4x
-2 8x
-1 4x
even 9x
over par 26x

So 35/89 rounds were even par or worse.

So this isn't really a course you can get super low on. Im thinking if JT gets to -17, he should eliminate all the -4s and would force Rory to shoot -12 to tie and Brooks to shoot -10 to tie.

I personally think the guys at -4 are already to far back. Rory at -5 is capable. Reed at -6 only 4 back, but not a great track record at the course.

I love guys like Xander, Webb, and Rahm but I'm afraid they are too far back.
 
JT is more than capable of firing right back. Think he was on track for a huge year before he got derailed at Honda when he hit the tree. Still can't take 2-1 on him right now. Brooks at 6-1 isn't bad.

The US books are starting to put odds that just take into account total shots for the week not including what they start out already. Could find some value there.
 
Justin Thomas -10
Patrick Cantlay -8
Brooks -7
Patrick Reed -6
Rory -5
Rahm -4
Kuchar -4
Xander -4
Webb Simpson -4
Abraham Ancer -4
Gary Woodland -3
Tony Finau -3
Adam Scott -3
DJ -3
Hideki Matsuyama -3
Paul Casey -2
Justin Rose -2
Snedeker -2
Rickie Fowler -2
Kevin Kisner -2
Marc Leishman -1
Fleetwood -1
Corey Conners -1
S. Im -1
Chez Revie -1
Bryson Dechambeau even
Charles Howell even
Lucas Glover even
Jason Kokrak even
Louis Oosthuizen even
 
I'm having a really hard time trying to figure out value in tournament match ups this week. Fading DJ seems appropriate but struggling to figure out who to take against him. This new format could really mess with guys mentally imo. Starting 10 back without even hitting a shot is a tough pill to swallow..
 
I think the new format keeps the players engaged in the tournament for more rounds. In previous years, the bottom half of the field had virtually no chance to win the FedEx, and were so far behind in points, that they couldn't really change their position on the points list very much outside of winning. I think that's why you would see guys well over par by Sunday. But this year, your FedEx money is 100% based on where you finish in this tournament. So the bottom half has a much better chance of winning the whole thing than in years past (though still unlikely), and can still make huge jumps in $ by not mailing it in on the weekend even if they have no chance to win the tournament. I could see guys like DJ, Brooks and Rose mailing it in, but I think the non-superstars are going to grind as hard as they can all four days
 
Took a stab at a couple of matchups:

Glover (-115) over Reavie
Sneds (EV) over Kisner

Glover is starting 1 back from Chez, but Glover comes in with better form and East Lake doesn't exactly suit his style of play. Snedeker is obviously a former champion, also coming in hot. Both he and Kis will start at -2
 
gps_3 said:
Took a stab at a couple of matchups:

Glover (-115) over Reavie
Sneds (EV) over Kisner

Glover is starting 1 back from Chez, but Glover comes in with better form and East Lake doesn't exactly suit his style of play. Snedeker is obviously a former champion, also coming in hot. Both he and Kis will start at -2
Click to expand...
Sneds, He is putting well but he is spraying the ball all over the course. If he can get that under control he will get my money.
 
Secretly hoping Louis goes real low so the network will be forced to show him and his giant UPS logo hat this week as a big FU to Fed EX.
 
Second round play..

Conners +135 vs Finau- My initial reaction making this play is I am crazy for playing it. But I am trusting what my eyes are seeing and how round one was played by both. Conners looks like he really had a good feel of the speed of the greens. Hit the ball really well and had a very solid round of 68. Finau was missing drives to the left and missing some irons short and right. He shot 70. At this price I will take a shot with the Canadian.
 
Is anyone else surprised at the lack of buzz about this thing? There is just no chatter or interest whatsoever amongst the majority of people. A lot of people don’t even realize it’s going on.
 
emg2525 said:
Is anyone else surprised at the lack of buzz about this thing? There is just no chatter or interest whatsoever amongst the majority of people. A lot of people don’t even realize it’s going on.
Click to expand...
Well, few of the name guys aren't there(and yes their current form isn't great but still) and this is generally a very good course but I think after watching last week's Bob Hope Desert Shootout there is some apathy about these tournaments. They need better tests in the playoffs.
 
This is the first year with this schedule, and it is better but this is also the last week of a lot of people's summer vacations b4 going back to the grind etc as well.
 
gps_3 said:
Took a stab at a couple of matchups:

Glover (-115) over Reavie
Sneds (EV) over Kisner

Glover is starting 1 back from Chez, but Glover comes in with better form and East Lake doesn't exactly suit his style of play. Snedeker is obviously a former champion, also coming in hot. Both he and Kis will start at -2
Click to expand...

Well this has gone about as poorly as I could have guessed. I have been a PGA Fade Friend this season for sure
 
So talented when he is on... But tournaments like the Open leaves one scratching his/her head in wonderment...

A fun season guys and truly enjoyed all who participated in dialogue and banter... Looking forward to next season
 
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