Playoff Halftime Scores, 2H Lines, & Final Score Thread

[tbone14]

Sunday, May 3

Game 7
Miami vs Atlanta -5.5
Miami 36, Atlanta 49
2H Line Atlanta +2
Atlanta 91-78

Game 1
Dallas vs Denver -6.5
Dallas 47, Denver 51
2H Line Denver -3
Denver 109-95

 

[tbone14]

Recap time.

For all games 6/7:
Team up at halftime continued the trend and pulled away = 3/6
Team down at halftime came back and bucked the trend = 2/6
Halftime line = full game line = no play = 1/6

For all round 1 games:
Team up at halftime continued the trend and pulled away = 24/45
Team down at halftime came back and bucked the trend = 12/45
Halftime line = full game line = no play = 9/45

So far, the results show that what happens in the 1H tends to continue in the 2H with regards to the 2H ATS line. Also, I think this shows another important fact, too. That using ATS lines, it's too damn hard to middle a game and hit both ways. A middle opportunity would only have been possible 12 times. And while I haven't done (nor do I plan to do) the full analysis, I'd imagine only a few of those 2Hs where the team came back and bucked the trend, would they have covered the 2H line and still gotten inside the full game number. (Keep in mind, more middle opportunities would be present if you played a ML and ATS combination.) Again, some key points to remember are the small sample size, and the handful of games that were in-between or questionable 2H plays by a point or two.

In this business, it's tough to show restraint and not bet the line before tipoff, but if you can hold off, I really think that there is a substantial edge by making an in-game 2H bet. Of course, no matter what, you will also be laying/catching a worse number than before tipoff. On the flip side, you may also get a better number on the favorite or underdog at halftime, if you favored one side but just not enough to make a play before tipoff.

This has been profitable, but it also takes a fair amount of discipline. The hardest thing I've experienced is going against my initial thoughts and leans on a game for the 2H. Sometimes it's hard to fight that inside voice that just makes you think you can pick the winner...

At any rate, I'll keep posting these lines throughout the playoffs. I'll try to do recaps for games 1-4 are they are completed in a series, but I will post round summaries for sure.

:shake:

 

[tbone14]

Monday, April 4
Game 1
Orlando vs Boston -2.5
Orlando 54, Boston 36
2H Boston -5
Orlando 95-90

Game 1
Houston vs Los Angeles -8
Houston 43, Los Angeles 40
2H Los Angeles -7.5
Houston 100-92



Tuesday, April 5
Game 1
Atlanta vs Cleveland -11.5
Atlanta 44, Cleveland 49
2H Cleveland -6
Cleveland 99-72

Game 2
Dallas vs Denver -7
Dallas 55, Denver 58
2H Denver -4
Denver 117-105


Wednesday, April 6
Game 2
Orlando vs Boston -3.5
Orlando 46, Boston 61
2H Boston +3
Boston 112-94

Game 2
Houston vs Los Angeles -9.5
Houston 57, Los Angeles 57
2H Los Angeles -7
Los Angeles 111-98


Thursday, April 7
Game 2
Atlanta vs Cleveland -13
Atlanta 35, Cleveland 59
2H Cleveland -0.5
Cleveland 105-85



Friday, April 8
Game 3
Boston vs Orlando -4.5
Boston 41, Orlando 53
2H Boston -2
Orlando 117-96

Game 3
Los Angeles -1 vs Houston
Los Angeles 50, Houston 48
2H Los Angeles -0.5
Los Angeles 108-94



Saturday, April 9
Game 3
Denver vs Dallas -3.5
Denver 48, Dallas 45
2H Dallas -4
Denver 106-105

Game 3
Cleveland -8.5 vs Atlanta
Cleveland 47, Atlanta 46
2H Cleveland -5.5
Cleveland 97-82



Sunday, April 10
Game 4
Los Angeles -6.5 vs Houston
Los Angeles , Houston
2H


Game 4
Boston vs Orlando -5
Boston , Orlando
2H