Playoff facts, angles, and thoughts
- Thread starter M.W.
- Start date
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Since Venables took over as DC in 2012, Clemson is 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 21.5 points per game) against the other teams in this year's playoff.
1-0 vs. LSU (25-24 as + 5 in 2012)
2-0 vs. Ohio State (40-35 as +2 in 2013; 31-0 as +1 in 2016)
2-0 vs. Okla (40-6 as +5 in 2014 and 37-17 as +3.5 in 2015)
1-0 vs. LSU (25-24 as + 5 in 2012)
2-0 vs. Ohio State (40-35 as +2 in 2013; 31-0 as +1 in 2016)
2-0 vs. Okla (40-6 as +5 in 2014 and 37-17 as +3.5 in 2015)
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
A simple angle would have made you 13-2 ATS betting all playoff games.
Fade the dog if its scoring average for the season is less than 36 points per game (4-0 ATS by 22.125 points per game)
Play the dog if if its scoring average for the season is more than 36 points per game (9-2 ATS by 12.95 points per game). The two losers were Jake Locker's Huskies (lost to Bama 24-7, coming up short by 1.5 ATS) and Georgia vs. Bama (lost 26-23 as +3.5).
That would point to OU and Ohio State in the first round.
Fade the dog if its scoring average for the season is less than 36 points per game (4-0 ATS by 22.125 points per game)
Play the dog if if its scoring average for the season is more than 36 points per game (9-2 ATS by 12.95 points per game). The two losers were Jake Locker's Huskies (lost to Bama 24-7, coming up short by 1.5 ATS) and Georgia vs. Bama (lost 26-23 as +3.5).
That would point to OU and Ohio State in the first round.
Very interesting here.
Now, this is a whole different match-up but still something to think about (prep time etc).
On a side note, could you run down all the star rankings of the defensive starters those years for me, thx in advance.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
There weren't any 5-stars anywhere but the DL, except for Mack Alexander who was the CB whose injury in the 2015 championship game may have cost us the title.
Wilkins played all 4 of those games, Dexter Lawrence played in '16 and '17, and Xavier Thomas played last year. That's all the defensive 5-stars.
That's two each year. This year we have XT only.
Wilkins played all 4 of those games, Dexter Lawrence played in '16 and '17, and Xavier Thomas played last year. That's all the defensive 5-stars.
That's two each year. This year we have XT only.
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Oh man, I was being a smart-ass but I do appreciate it as a recruiting junkie. I was a closet Clemson fan during the Deshaun era and that 40-35 game was one of my more profitable bowl games ever(in many ways).There weren't any 5-stars anywhere but the DL, except for Mack Alexander who was the CB whose injury in the 2015 championship game may have cost us the title.
Wilkins played all 4 of those games, Dexter Lawrence played in '16 and '17, and Xavier Thomas played last year. That's all the defensive 5-stars.
This is going to be such a great game, thanks for the thread.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
My most profitable bowl game was played on Christmas Day 1999. Arizona State vs, Wake Forest coached by Jim "Santa Claus" Caldwell. I remember calling in my bets from my aunt's basement on Christmas Eve/Christmas morning at 1:00 a.m. It took like 45 minutes to get all my bets in at ESB on the Demon Kelvins (it seemed that their whole defense was named Kelvin that year) and the under and all the pointspread props (adjusted pointspreads/totals) and parlays (using the adjusted totals/pointspreads).
Anyway, Deacs were +3.5, total was circa 45.5, and the 23-3 Wake victory was a bonanza. $10,000 -- my biggest win ever on a college game.
That is really cool.
I love great gambling stories that include 'I was hiding at my family thing...' or stuff like that. I think we all have a few like that.
I made my first 3 ever football bets in 1999, went 3-0...hooked.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Ditto. Great story!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I posted this link in traderjoe's thread, but I thought I'd post it again here.
sports.yahoo.com
Yahoo Sports spoke to six coaches and assistants who’ve faced Clemson this year to figure out if this edition of the Tigers compared to last season’s iconic team that blasted Notre Dame and Alabama in the College Football Playoff by an average of nearly four touchdowns.
Is Clemson really better than last season? Here are 4 key questions facing the Tigers
After Dabo Swinney's rant about a lack of respect for his team and claim that this Clemson team is better than last year's title-winning edition, Pete Thamel dives into the four biggest questions facing Little Ole Clemson.
sports.yahoo.com
Yahoo Sports spoke to six coaches and assistants who’ve faced Clemson this year to figure out if this edition of the Tigers compared to last season’s iconic team that blasted Notre Dame and Alabama in the College Football Playoff by an average of nearly four touchdowns.
Traderjoe123
Well-Known Member
I posted this link in traderjoe's thread, but I thought I'd post it again here.
Is Clemson really better than last season? Here are 4 key questions facing the Tigers
After Dabo Swinney's rant about a lack of respect for his team and claim that this Clemson team is better than last year's title-winning edition, Pete Thamel dives into the four biggest questions facing Little Ole Clemson.
Yahoo Sports spoke to six coaches and assistants who’ve faced Clemson this year to figure out if this edition of the Tigers compared to last season’s iconic team that blasted Notre Dame and Alabama in the College Football Playoff by an average of nearly four touchdowns.
Good article... Any coach that they played had inferior players and coaching to make adjustments so its really impossible to say. This team is an unknown. Osu will hit them in the face. I'm curious to see how BV reacts to an early drive that their dline gets pushed back on every run. Will they sell out to stop the run??
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Clemson's stats, including stat counts, are here.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
An analysis by a Buckeye who uses video to conclude that Ohio State's OL will be able to blow Clemson off the ball.
www.elevenwarriors.com
Clemson Defense VS Boston College(AJ Dillon) Run Game Film Study
I have done a couple film studies and a Clemson team breakdown and throughout it I have said the Clemson weakness is their defensive front. Woo boy Boston College's ground game proves exactly what I was thinking. AJ Dillon is one of the best back in college football with a running style somewhat...
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I find it odd that tOSU has all of these advantages, yet the line hasn’t moved off the 2 in two weeks. What to make of that?
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
I think the expansion of legal gambling and technology have curtailed line moves in comparison to 15-20 years ago. You have big groups with insane amounts of money that ultimately “bracket” numbers once the initial lines settle in place. They decide their numbers and hammer them every time it moves to what they have calculated as a green light. For a game of this magnitude I think there are many groups on both sides of this affair. Some books may move the line .5/1 point one way and it gets hit hard and returns and vice versa. This is just a theory I developed from listening to different people that make plays for others for a living.
Also, I think here at CTG we have some very passionate and vocal Big Ten advocates that at times mix exorbinant alcohol consumption and posting. Again, just another theory I developed.
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
I think your theories may have some considerable merit
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Can’t speak on the Clemson squad but both of those recent opponents were what we are being accused of being this year......Extremely Overrated. They had powerful offenses that covered up their defensive shortcomings. Strength of schedule mattered a lot more back then. It didn’t hurt that we were taken lightly and both of them were already penciled in as the champions. We have revenge aimed our way no matter what and we Fkn Love It!!!!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Pretty cool.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Now 5-0 to the under.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Now 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in playoff games 14-2 SU & ATS overall in postseason since Venables arrived.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Again, favorite is 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in title game, with SU wins by 3 (Bama over UGA) and 5 (Bama over Clemson). The two blowout losses by favorites (Oregon 2014 and Bama 2018) were by the most high-flying pass-heavy of the favorites.
Three favorites average between 198 and 220 pass yards per game (the Bama teams from 2015-2017). They failed to cover by 0.5, 10.5, and 1.5 points, and they won two SU.
Two teams averaged 310 (Ore 2014) and 330 (Ala 2018) pass yards per game. They lost ATS by 28 and 33.5 points and SU by 22 and 28..
LSU averages 398 pass yards per game.
Three favorites average between 198 and 220 pass yards per game (the Bama teams from 2015-2017). They failed to cover by 0.5, 10.5, and 1.5 points, and they won two SU.
Two teams averaged 310 (Ore 2014) and 330 (Ala 2018) pass yards per game. They lost ATS by 28 and 33.5 points and SU by 22 and 28..
LSU averages 398 pass yards per game.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
The two favorites who lost the CFP title game in blowout fashion were the two that scored the most in the semis (59 for Ore in '14 and 45 for Bama in '18), allowed the most points in the semis (20 for FSU in '14 and 34 for Okla in '18), and had the highest combined total (79 for Ore in '14 and 79 for Bama in '18).
The other favorites (Bama in 2015-2017) came off wins of 38-0, 24-7, and 24-6.
LSU won 63-28.
The other favorites (Bama in 2015-2017) came off wins of 38-0, 24-7, and 24-6.
LSU won 63-28.
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
The two blowout losses by favorites (Oregon 2014 and Bama 2018) were by the most imbalanced (pass vs. run) of the CFP title favorites.
Oregon 2014's pass yards per game were 68 more than their rush yards per game. Bama 2018's pass yards were 128 more per game than their rush yards.
LSU 2019's pass yards per game are 229 more than their ruch yards per game.
Oregon 2014's pass yards per game were 68 more than their rush yards per game. Bama 2018's pass yards were 128 more per game than their rush yards.
LSU 2019's pass yards per game are 229 more than their ruch yards per game.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
The two favorites who lost the CFP title game by 22+ were the two with the worst rush defenses on a yards-per-rush basis.
Bama '15, '16, and '17 allowed under 2.7 yards per rush. They won 2 of 3 SU and lost ATS by an avrage of 4 ppg.
Oregon '14 allowed 4.08 yards per game, and Bama '18 allowed 3.41. LSU is right there at 3.35 yards per rush.
Bama '15, '16, and '17 allowed under 2.7 yards per rush. They won 2 of 3 SU and lost ATS by an avrage of 4 ppg.
Oregon '14 allowed 4.08 yards per game, and Bama '18 allowed 3.41. LSU is right there at 3.35 yards per rush.
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Twice the CFP title game favorite had a worse record than the dog. The favorite won both those games straight up, 45-40 as -6.5 and 26-23 as -3.5.
Once the CFP title game favorite had a better record than the dog. That was the year Clemson beat Bama 35-31 as +6.5.
Twice (2014 and 2018) the favorite and the dog had the same record. Each time the dog blew out the favorite.
Once the CFP title game favorite had a better record than the dog. That was the year Clemson beat Bama 35-31 as +6.5.
Twice (2014 and 2018) the favorite and the dog had the same record. Each time the dog blew out the favorite.
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austinhous
Pretty much a regular
You're locked in brother. I like your formatting/presentation/etc. Make sure to allow yourself some time to relax and "come down" when it's time to be done! Enjoy the game brother.
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