Player Props Week 5 Discussion

[He Hate Me]

Starting this earlier since I am playing a prop in the VT/Mia game tomorrow:

Elijah Arroyo over 25.5 yards receiving -114 (FD)
Elijah Arroyo over 50 yards receiving alt line +320

I am splitting a 2 unit bet equally between the normal line and the alt line

VT usually gets killed by a decent TE. They are shorthanded at LB with McDonald out and Lawson will be playing injured if he plays. Woodson played a lot at WLB last week and it so so.

Rutgers ran this same play 9 times last week against VT and were successful on 8 and most of the passes went to the TE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1838227894486642688

Miami is gonna throw the ball on VT, they always do I have not looked back at box scores but I cannot remember Mia not having a 100 yd receiver and a 300 yard passer over the last 5 or so matchups with VT, especially since Bud Foster left. I also looked at playing Restrepo but his total was 90.

I did not post it last week but I played against VT in the first half last week and in week 3, which I posted. VT has a coaching problem and they cannot adjust on the fly and most adjustments, on both sides of the ball, come at halftime. The video I posted above demonstrates this as it was well into the 3rd quarter before VT figured out they were running the same play.

I am also playing 2 units on Miami -10 for the first half.

​

 

[He Hate Me]

I have also played this as discussed with @B.A.R. in the B10 thread. It is obvious that Mullings is the better back but I was worried that Mich would be stubborn and try to stick with Edwards. UNC and Iowa ran all over Minn and Iowa did it with an unbalanced offensive attack like Mich will have on Saturday.

2 units:
Mullings over 84.5 yards rushing -118 (ESPN)

 

[B.A.R.]

I have also played this as discussed with @B.A.R. in the B10 thread. It is obvious that Mullings is the better back but I was worried that Mich would be stubborn and try to stick with Edwards. UNC and Iowa ran all over Minn and Iowa did it with an unbalanced offensive attack like Mich will have on Saturday.

2 units:
Mullings over 84.5 yards rushing -118 (ESPN)

Michigan was being stubborn...

Part of that is loyalty and being Don's turn ..

He's better suited for the "lightning" role.

They'll only be better for this move.

 

[He Hate Me]

I want to play the Ryan Williams TD prop at +164 but UGA scares me too much

 

[He Hate Me]

I also wanna play Avery Johnson over 54.5 rushing which is really low on ESPN compared to other places. Ok St gives up rushing yards to QBs and I expect this to be a crazy type of game, but they also get a lot of sacks, which almost lost me my Taylen Green alt rush total a couple of weeks ago.

 

[sleepy]

I played Jaxson Dart (MIS) Under 294.5 Passing Yards

UK hardly ever gives up tons of passing yards. They have only allowed 300+ yards passing in 3 of their last 43 games. In their four games this season they have allowed 110, 160, 166, 126 passing yards. They also play super slow when they have the ball which will help the under.

 

[B.A.R.]

I played Jaxson Dart (MIS) Under 294.5 Passing Yards

UK hardly ever gives up tons of passing yards. They have only allowed 300+ yards passing in 3 of their last 43 games. In their four games this season they have allowed 110, 160, 166, 126 passing yards. They also play super slow when they have the ball which will help the under.

The right cap.

Scary? Sure.

But, they should be able to shorten the game a bit and cut off some possession time for Miss.

 

[B.A.R.]

Anyone have an Orji number? I am just curious.

 

[He Hate Me]

Anyone have an Orji number? I am just curious.

41.5

 

[B.A.R.]

41.5

Rushing or receiving?

 

[B.A.R.]

I'm assuming rushing.

Thx.

Looking for passing.

 

[He Hate Me]

I'm assuming rushing.

Thx.

Looking for passing.

I don't know if there will be a passing total this week.

 

[B.A.R.]

I don't know if there will be a passing total this week.

I doubt it, figured I'd ask.

I have a feeling he hits one bomb this week. Just a gut feeling.

 

[cubsker]

I doubt it, figured I'd ask.

I have a feeling he hits one bomb this week. Just a gut feeling.

that would be like hitting a 12 yard out pass.

 

[B.A.R.]

that would be like hitting a 12 yard out pass.

Hehe true.

Always remember this team utilizes the flea flicker quite a bit.

 

[He Hate Me]

Starting this earlier since I am playing a prop in the VT/Mia game tomorrow:

Elijah Arroyo over 25.5 yards receiving -114 (FD)
Elijah Arroyo over 50 yards receiving alt line +320

I am splitting a 2 unit bet equally between the normal line and the alt line

VT usually gets killed by a decent TE. They are shorthanded at LB with McDonald out and Lawson will be playing injured if he plays. Woodson played a lot at WLB last week and it so so.

Rutgers ran this same play 9 times last week against VT and were successful on 8 and most of the passes went to the TE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1838227894486642688

Miami is gonna throw the ball on VT, they always do I have not looked back at box scores but I cannot remember Mia not having a 100 yd receiver and a 300 yard passer over the last 5 or so matchups with VT, especially since Bud Foster left. I also looked at playing Restrepo but his total was 90.

I did not post it last week but I played against VT in the first half last week and in week 3, which I posted. VT has a coaching problem and they cannot adjust on the fly and most adjustments, on both sides of the ball, come at halftime. The video I posted above demonstrates this as it was well into the 3rd quarter before VT figured out they were running the same play.

I am also playing 2 units on Miami -10 for the first half.

​

That was quick, hit both the Arroyo rec yards and alt yards in the first half of the first quarter.

 

[HUNT]

That was quick, hit both the Arroyo rec yards and alr yards in the first half of the first quarter.

Unbelievable. Great work.

 

[HUNT]

Dante Dowdell should run wild on Purdue today. Peek at his over 76.5. Purdue hasn't stopped anyone on the ground this year.

 

[survive&advance]

Dante Dowdell should run wild on Purdue today. Peek at his over 76.5. Purdue hasn't stopped anyone on the ground this year.

yep took this earlier in the week as well

 

[HUNT]

Orji Rush over 45.5 is the play in Ann Arbor imo. He should get that because he definitely can't throw the ball at all.

 

[He Hate Me]

Dante Dowdell should run wild on Purdue today. Peek at his over 76.5. Purdue hasn't stopped anyone on the ground this year.

Yeah, from the box score it looks like Nebraska gave him more carries last week instead of splitting the carries.

I put 2 units on this at 76.5 -115 at Bet365

 

[He Hate Me]

I also wanna play Avery Johnson over 54.5 rushing which is really low on ESPN compared to other places. Ok St gives up rushing yards to QBs and I expect this to be a crazy type of game, but they also get a lot of sacks, which almost lost me my Taylen Green alt rush total a couple of weeks ago.

I ended up playing this. I should have played it when ESPN had 54.5 and most other books had the low to mid 60s.

I played 2 units over 61.5 -118 ESPN

Okie St cannot stop the run and gives up yards to rushing QBs, just hope there are not a lot of big sacks.

 

[HUNT]

Yeah, from the box score it looks like Nebraska gave him more carries last week instead of splitting the carries.

I put 2 units on this at 76.5 -115 at Bet365

Let's go!

 

[He Hate Me]

Orji Rush over 45.5 is the play in Ann Arbor imo. He should get that because he definitely can't throw the ball at all.

I see his passing total at 89.5 in some places. Probably the lowest ever.

 

[He Hate Me]

I have also played this as discussed with @B.A.R. in the B10 thread. It is obvious that Mullings is the better back but I was worried that Mich would be stubborn and try to stick with Edwards. UNC and Iowa ran all over Minn and Iowa did it with an unbalanced offensive attack like Mich will have on Saturday.

2 units:
Mullings over 84.5 yards rushing -118 (ESPN)

I added another unit to this at 85.5 -118 (ESPN)

 

[HUNT]

I see his passing total at 89.5 in some places. Probably the lowest ever.

It will still go under. He's awful.

 

[He Hate Me]

Also played these two:

2 units:
Taylen Green over 62.5 rushing -115 (BM)
KJ Jefferson over 39.5 rushing -115 (Bet365)

 

[HUNT]

Lot of people on the mullings prop. Hope y'all hit it. Orji is the easier play. Jmo.

 

[2daBank]

Damn I couldn’t find this thread when I was looking for it, maybe I need to get this cataract fixed, lol. I didn’t play much this morning anyways.

Kj Jefferson ov 43.5 rush -118

 

[2daBank]

Unc

O. Hampton ov 113.5 rush -118

Most these on espn bet as draft kings has went from not only bull shit numbers but they just decided this week to not even offer props on basically every game I like. Duke rush d hasn’t been that great playing teams that don’t rush it at nearly the level heels and Hampton do, really couldn’t believe he cashed given the situation last week but even when game was out of reach mac brown continued feeding him the ball, no clue why but if they gonna keep feeding him down 20+ no reason not to bet him in a game I’d think Is much closer.

 

[B.A.R.]

I added another unit to this at 85.5 -118 (ESPN)

Glad you added to this.

We received the carries expected and a few more.

 

[cubsker]

Yeah, from the box score it looks like Nebraska gave him more carries last week instead of splitting the carries.

I put 2 units on this at 76.5 -115 at Bet365

Dowdell couldn't get it going today. I've always believed our third string guy was our best RB and he showed it today. May have an opportunity next week there....we'll see.