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PLAYBALL 2013
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New Mexico Bowl
Nevada / Arizona
The LAST TIMNE AZ WAS FAVORED BY 9PTS OR MORE, WAS AGAINST TOLEDO, WHO THEY BEAT BY 7 POINTS. IRONICALLY ARIZONA HAS BEEN FAVORED ONLY 3 times in 9 games that were against bowlers this season. The AZ defense has allowed over 40pts per game against the 9 bowl teams and when losing, they are even worse.
Nevada had a close game with Boise as they were only out-gained by 4 total yards in that contest. The Wolf Pack will be around all day and could even pull off a shocking upset.
Nevada +9 (10 Units) (ML +280 2 units) over Arizona.
Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo / Utah State
The Rockets this year are a bit better than the Ohio Bobcats who beat Utah State last year SU. Utah State is improved somewhat this year, as they are playing in the same Idaho Potato Bowl they lost in last year. The Rockets are back after a narrow 42-41 win over Air Force in the Militayr Bowl last year. The fact that Toledo beat Cincy and only lost to N.Illinois by 7 points this season, gets me taking the 10 point dog today. Expect another close one again for the Rockets.
'What makes this line so large is the fact that Utah State shows good defensive numbers, but IMO, they are against weaker foes on the season.'
Toledo +10 (8 units) ML +320 1 unit) over Utah State
Poinsettia Bowl
BYU @> San Diego State
This one is a tough call as both teams have a good common opponent (Boise) that they both played at Boise. BYU was great on defense - as was SDSU. They both held Boise to under 300 totals yards of offense. BYU though. was held to only 200 yds on offense by Boise ,while SDSU managed to gain 277. Both games were close as BYU lost 6-7, while SDSU won 21-19. My numbers show that BYU also had a whopping 5 turnovers in that loss to Boise.
There is a large variance in the spread in those two contests as BYU was a 6pt dog and SDSU was a 16.5 pt dog. My concern here, is that BYU has had trouble catching up to opponents this year when trailing. There will be a lot of pressure coming from the SDSU defense. The SDSU run game is outstanding as well and if they get the lead they have the man power to run the clock.
BYU has a great defense all around, but they were torched for 270 rushing yards by Notre Dame. BYU coverd, but still - it exposed a part of them that I can't ignore.
I checked, and the starting QB for BYU (Riley Nelson) was supposed to start in this game, but I'm not sure it would make a big difference. SDSU has a first year starter (Dingwell) original starter Katz is out) playing in this bowl at QB, so there is a 'perceived' advantage there for BYU based on bowl-game experience by the quarterbacks. BYU #2  running backs are out as well.
BYU leads this match-up in regular season defensive rankings. They are #5 in pts allowed (15/game), #3 in total defensive yards allowed/game 266, and #2 in rushing yds allowed/game (84). In bowl opponents, they still rank better over SDSU. What BYU lacks is scoring. They average pnly 18 pts pergame against bowlers, while SDSU avg is 29. Looking at who they each played and the fact that BYU had 5 TO's against Boise, i have to go with the better defense today returning 7 rock solid starters from a year ago.
BYU -3. (7 units)
EARLY 3-TEAM PARLAY >
SMU +12 (-110), BOWLING GREEN +7.5 (-120), PITT +3.5 (-110). (2 UNITS/ TO WIN 11.44 UNITS)
Beef O/Brady Bowl
Ball State +7 (5 units) over UCF. No write uo
New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina / La-Lafayette
Cajuns return for another game in New Orleans where they won last year 32-30 over a soft San Diego State team. La-Laf returns a good group of starters on offense and is favored by 6.5 points. On the season La-Laf was favored in 8 games against opposition and covered only 4. They covered against Troy and Florida INTL, .South Alabama and Fla Atlantic. Those teams all have losing records and combined, they accumulated 13 wins.
The East Carolina Pirates are a far better opponent who is returning 15 starters from a year ago, when the Pirtaes went 5-7, but had 3 losses that were by 7 points or less. This season they imptoved greatly going 8-4 and won 5 of their last 6 SU by averaging over 42 pts/game on offense. The Pirates havent won a bowl game in a while and are ready to play, as they also have only 2 starters out. The Cajusn are loaded with injuries and will find it much tougher this time around in the Dome.
East Carolina +6.5 (8 units). ML +210 (2 units)
Las Vagas Bowl
Washington/ Boise.
Boise is playing in Vegas where they have plenty of home crowd from Idaho showing up for this game. The Huskies have little respect for this Boise group, because of th very rough schedule that Washington faced this season. The Huskies faced SDSU, LSU, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State.
The Huskies beat SDSU, while SDSU beat Boise SU as did Michigan State, while Boise got by BYU on 5 BYU turnovers in a 7-6 win at home. Boise also played a fouth bowl team in Fresno State who they managed to out-score in a shootout winning 20-10...
The loss of qb Kelln Moore to the NFL had shown up all season as the Broncos are nothing like the Broncos from Denver and are scoring only 30 pts/game this season (and only 17pts/game against four bowlers this year) as compared to LY when they averaged 43 /game on the season and 30 against Bowlers LY! They did blow out Arizona State 56-34 in LY Las Vegas Bowl, but Boise this year is a fragment of that team a year ago.
Washington +6.5 (6 units). (ML +210) 1 unit)
Hawaii Bowl
SMU +12 (10 units) over Fresno State. No write up.
Little Caesara Bowl
C. Michigan +6 ( 5 units) over W. Kentucky
Military Bowl
Bowling Green +7 (9 units) ML +240 1 unit) over San Jose State
Belk Bowl
Duke +10 ( 7 units) ML +320 (2 units) over Cincy. Look who Duke faced.
Holiday Bowl
UCLA -1 ( 7 units) over Baylor. Superior defense by UCLA gets this one.
Independence Bowl
Ohio +7.5 (5 units) over La Monroe. Bobcats faced 3 solid teams in their last 3 games - all bowlers - all better than La Monroe. Line is too large in this one.
Russel Athletic Bowl
Virginia Tech -2.5 (4 units) over Rutgers.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota +13 ( 6 units) over Texas Tech. TT 40 point/game allowed defense can't cover this one.
Air Force -2.5 (6 units) over Rice
Navy +14 ( 5 units) over Arizona State
Syracuse +3.5 (6 units) over West Virginia
Texas +3.5 (4 units) over Oregon State
TCU-2 (5 units) over Michigan State
Vandy -7.5 (8 units) over N.C. State
USC -7.5 ( 7 units) iver Georgia Tech
Tulsa +1 ( 10 units) over Iowa State
LSU -6 (5 units) over Clemson
Oklahoma State -17 (10 units) over Purdue
Northwestern +1 (6 units) over Miss St.
Michigan +5 (6 units) over South Carolina
Nebraska +8 (10 units) over Georgia. The Cornhuskers were favored in every game against Bowl teams this season. Georgia had their 'big bowl game with Alabama and this game could be a bit of a letdown after that playoff game. Nebraska has a particularly good pass defense and that could result in a couple turnovers in this one. I have made this a 10 unit play today after recapping this one.
Wisconsin +6 (7 units( over Stanford
Northern Illinois +14.5 (15 UNITS) ML +425 (3units) over Florida State
Louisville +14 (10 units) over Florida Florida won their last game against Fla State on 5 FSU turnovers. The Cards are good enough to keep it close, or with the back door left open.
Oregon-7 (-128) 5Dimes) (20 units) over Kansas State.
Oregon was favored on every game against bowlers this season and when favored by 32 or less they won SU and they covered all of them except Stanford, which they lost. In the 2 games above the 32 pt spread, they won, but failed to cover against Fresno and Arky State.
In the Ducks first 6 games this season, they had a combined 14 turnovers. They improved greatly in the last 6 games only having 4. Speaking of turnovers, Kansas State won their game against Oklahoma State because of five OS turnovers and lucked out against Oklahoma because of 3 Sooner turnovers in a 5 point win.. That Ok State game was in Kansas and the Cowboys still outgained them by rolling up 500 yards!.
In road games against bowlers, the Cats are averaging only 24 pts per game, (excluding the implosion by West Virginia). That isn't enough to keep up with the Ducks.
The Ducks bring a first year starter at QB (Mariota) hitting 70% completions, who is actually better than last year starter Damon Thomas. The Ducks also replaced LY starting RB, LaMichaerl James (1800 yds rushing), with Kenjon BARNER(1660 yds, 6.6 avg) The Ducks scored 41 last year in the Rose bowl on Wusconsin - who at that time - had held bowlers to an average of 20pts per game. This year, the Ducks only return 11 starters from that squad, but IMO they are better than the Rose Bowl team.
K State is the most over rated team this year in the bowls IMO and I think that they will be beat by more than double the spread. If they have ANY turnovers against Oregon, each one will turn into scores for the Ducks,.
This qualifies as my best play to date on the bowls and you can count on a 2nd half bet if the numbers are right at halftime too.
Oklahoma +4 (-127) (8 Units) 5Dimes. ML +140 (6 units) over A&M
Im on Oklahoma after capping this game down to a few simple facts.
A&M qb Johnny 'Football' Manziel, was shut down by LSU and held to only 27 yds rushing. He had 290 passing yds but was picked 3 times. The Aggies managed only 19 points against an LSU squad that offensively was also ineffective on A&M turf. Oklaahomas' Landry Jones is far better at qb than Mettenberger was for LSU.
Pittsburgh +3.5 (15 Units) (ML +145) (10 units) over Mississippi.
Largest bet on the Bowls to date. I dont see this one being in doubt and I WILL make another play at halftime if the numbers are right - just like the Oregon play.
Three Team Parlay. Pittsburgh +3.5, Kent State +3.5 and Notre Dame +10.
3 units/1800.00
Kent State +3.5 (10 units). ML +135 (8 units.)
Notre Dame +10 (20 units) ML +300 (7 units) over Alabama
All My Plays Are Rated 'G'
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada / Arizona
The LAST TIMNE AZ WAS FAVORED BY 9PTS OR MORE, WAS AGAINST TOLEDO, WHO THEY BEAT BY 7 POINTS. IRONICALLY ARIZONA HAS BEEN FAVORED ONLY 3 times in 9 games that were against bowlers this season. The AZ defense has allowed over 40pts per game against the 9 bowl teams and when losing, they are even worse.
Nevada had a close game with Boise as they were only out-gained by 4 total yards in that contest. The Wolf Pack will be around all day and could even pull off a shocking upset.
Nevada +9 (10 Units) (ML +280 2 units) over Arizona.
Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo / Utah State
The Rockets this year are a bit better than the Ohio Bobcats who beat Utah State last year SU. Utah State is improved somewhat this year, as they are playing in the same Idaho Potato Bowl they lost in last year. The Rockets are back after a narrow 42-41 win over Air Force in the Militayr Bowl last year. The fact that Toledo beat Cincy and only lost to N.Illinois by 7 points this season, gets me taking the 10 point dog today. Expect another close one again for the Rockets.
'What makes this line so large is the fact that Utah State shows good defensive numbers, but IMO, they are against weaker foes on the season.'
Toledo +10 (8 units) ML +320 1 unit) over Utah State
Poinsettia Bowl
BYU @> San Diego State
This one is a tough call as both teams have a good common opponent (Boise) that they both played at Boise. BYU was great on defense - as was SDSU. They both held Boise to under 300 totals yards of offense. BYU though. was held to only 200 yds on offense by Boise ,while SDSU managed to gain 277. Both games were close as BYU lost 6-7, while SDSU won 21-19. My numbers show that BYU also had a whopping 5 turnovers in that loss to Boise.
There is a large variance in the spread in those two contests as BYU was a 6pt dog and SDSU was a 16.5 pt dog. My concern here, is that BYU has had trouble catching up to opponents this year when trailing. There will be a lot of pressure coming from the SDSU defense. The SDSU run game is outstanding as well and if they get the lead they have the man power to run the clock.
BYU has a great defense all around, but they were torched for 270 rushing yards by Notre Dame. BYU coverd, but still - it exposed a part of them that I can't ignore.
I checked, and the starting QB for BYU (Riley Nelson) was supposed to start in this game, but I'm not sure it would make a big difference. SDSU has a first year starter (Dingwell) original starter Katz is out) playing in this bowl at QB, so there is a 'perceived' advantage there for BYU based on bowl-game experience by the quarterbacks. BYU #2  running backs are out as well.
BYU leads this match-up in regular season defensive rankings. They are #5 in pts allowed (15/game), #3 in total defensive yards allowed/game 266, and #2 in rushing yds allowed/game (84). In bowl opponents, they still rank better over SDSU. What BYU lacks is scoring. They average pnly 18 pts pergame against bowlers, while SDSU avg is 29. Looking at who they each played and the fact that BYU had 5 TO's against Boise, i have to go with the better defense today returning 7 rock solid starters from a year ago.
BYU -3. (7 units)
EARLY 3-TEAM PARLAY >
SMU +12 (-110), BOWLING GREEN +7.5 (-120), PITT +3.5 (-110). (2 UNITS/ TO WIN 11.44 UNITS)
Beef O/Brady Bowl
Ball State +7 (5 units) over UCF. No write uo
New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina / La-Lafayette
Cajuns return for another game in New Orleans where they won last year 32-30 over a soft San Diego State team. La-Laf returns a good group of starters on offense and is favored by 6.5 points. On the season La-Laf was favored in 8 games against opposition and covered only 4. They covered against Troy and Florida INTL, .South Alabama and Fla Atlantic. Those teams all have losing records and combined, they accumulated 13 wins.
The East Carolina Pirates are a far better opponent who is returning 15 starters from a year ago, when the Pirtaes went 5-7, but had 3 losses that were by 7 points or less. This season they imptoved greatly going 8-4 and won 5 of their last 6 SU by averaging over 42 pts/game on offense. The Pirates havent won a bowl game in a while and are ready to play, as they also have only 2 starters out. The Cajusn are loaded with injuries and will find it much tougher this time around in the Dome.
East Carolina +6.5 (8 units). ML +210 (2 units)
Las Vagas Bowl
Washington/ Boise.
Boise is playing in Vegas where they have plenty of home crowd from Idaho showing up for this game. The Huskies have little respect for this Boise group, because of th very rough schedule that Washington faced this season. The Huskies faced SDSU, LSU, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State.
The Huskies beat SDSU, while SDSU beat Boise SU as did Michigan State, while Boise got by BYU on 5 BYU turnovers in a 7-6 win at home. Boise also played a fouth bowl team in Fresno State who they managed to out-score in a shootout winning 20-10...
The loss of qb Kelln Moore to the NFL had shown up all season as the Broncos are nothing like the Broncos from Denver and are scoring only 30 pts/game this season (and only 17pts/game against four bowlers this year) as compared to LY when they averaged 43 /game on the season and 30 against Bowlers LY! They did blow out Arizona State 56-34 in LY Las Vegas Bowl, but Boise this year is a fragment of that team a year ago.
Washington +6.5 (6 units). (ML +210) 1 unit)
Hawaii Bowl
SMU +12 (10 units) over Fresno State. No write up.
Little Caesara Bowl
C. Michigan +6 ( 5 units) over W. Kentucky
Military Bowl
Bowling Green +7 (9 units) ML +240 1 unit) over San Jose State
Belk Bowl
Duke +10 ( 7 units) ML +320 (2 units) over Cincy. Look who Duke faced.
Holiday Bowl
UCLA -1 ( 7 units) over Baylor. Superior defense by UCLA gets this one.
Independence Bowl
Ohio +7.5 (5 units) over La Monroe. Bobcats faced 3 solid teams in their last 3 games - all bowlers - all better than La Monroe. Line is too large in this one.
Russel Athletic Bowl
Virginia Tech -2.5 (4 units) over Rutgers.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota +13 ( 6 units) over Texas Tech. TT 40 point/game allowed defense can't cover this one.
Air Force -2.5 (6 units) over Rice
Navy +14 ( 5 units) over Arizona State
Syracuse +3.5 (6 units) over West Virginia
Texas +3.5 (4 units) over Oregon State
TCU-2 (5 units) over Michigan State
Vandy -7.5 (8 units) over N.C. State
USC -7.5 ( 7 units) iver Georgia Tech
Tulsa +1 ( 10 units) over Iowa State
LSU -6 (5 units) over Clemson
Oklahoma State -17 (10 units) over Purdue
Northwestern +1 (6 units) over Miss St.
Michigan +5 (6 units) over South Carolina
Nebraska +8 (10 units) over Georgia. The Cornhuskers were favored in every game against Bowl teams this season. Georgia had their 'big bowl game with Alabama and this game could be a bit of a letdown after that playoff game. Nebraska has a particularly good pass defense and that could result in a couple turnovers in this one. I have made this a 10 unit play today after recapping this one.
Wisconsin +6 (7 units( over Stanford
Northern Illinois +14.5 (15 UNITS) ML +425 (3units) over Florida State
Louisville +14 (10 units) over Florida Florida won their last game against Fla State on 5 FSU turnovers. The Cards are good enough to keep it close, or with the back door left open.
Oregon-7 (-128) 5Dimes) (20 units) over Kansas State.
Oregon was favored on every game against bowlers this season and when favored by 32 or less they won SU and they covered all of them except Stanford, which they lost. In the 2 games above the 32 pt spread, they won, but failed to cover against Fresno and Arky State.
In the Ducks first 6 games this season, they had a combined 14 turnovers. They improved greatly in the last 6 games only having 4. Speaking of turnovers, Kansas State won their game against Oklahoma State because of five OS turnovers and lucked out against Oklahoma because of 3 Sooner turnovers in a 5 point win.. That Ok State game was in Kansas and the Cowboys still outgained them by rolling up 500 yards!.
In road games against bowlers, the Cats are averaging only 24 pts per game, (excluding the implosion by West Virginia). That isn't enough to keep up with the Ducks.
The Ducks bring a first year starter at QB (Mariota) hitting 70% completions, who is actually better than last year starter Damon Thomas. The Ducks also replaced LY starting RB, LaMichaerl James (1800 yds rushing), with Kenjon BARNER(1660 yds, 6.6 avg) The Ducks scored 41 last year in the Rose bowl on Wusconsin - who at that time - had held bowlers to an average of 20pts per game. This year, the Ducks only return 11 starters from that squad, but IMO they are better than the Rose Bowl team.
K State is the most over rated team this year in the bowls IMO and I think that they will be beat by more than double the spread. If they have ANY turnovers against Oregon, each one will turn into scores for the Ducks,.
This qualifies as my best play to date on the bowls and you can count on a 2nd half bet if the numbers are right at halftime too.
Oklahoma +4 (-127) (8 Units) 5Dimes. ML +140 (6 units) over A&M
Im on Oklahoma after capping this game down to a few simple facts.
A&M qb Johnny 'Football' Manziel, was shut down by LSU and held to only 27 yds rushing. He had 290 passing yds but was picked 3 times. The Aggies managed only 19 points against an LSU squad that offensively was also ineffective on A&M turf. Oklaahomas' Landry Jones is far better at qb than Mettenberger was for LSU.
Pittsburgh +3.5 (15 Units) (ML +145) (10 units) over Mississippi.
Largest bet on the Bowls to date. I dont see this one being in doubt and I WILL make another play at halftime if the numbers are right - just like the Oregon play.
Three Team Parlay. Pittsburgh +3.5, Kent State +3.5 and Notre Dame +10.
3 units/1800.00
Kent State +3.5 (10 units). ML +135 (8 units.)
Notre Dame +10 (20 units) ML +300 (7 units) over Alabama
All My Plays Are Rated 'G'
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