Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Virginia

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SoonerBS

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This is suppose to be a joint effort write-up. I'll give you the reasons why Virginia is NOT a good play, and B.A.R. will tell you why Pittsburgh IS a good play.

With Virginia, it is a story of the Good, the Bad and the UGLY.

The GOOD:

After a year as a backup quarterback at Notre Dame, then a year of sitting out, then two more years as a backup quarterback at Virginia, it's officially Christian Olsen's time. He entered the spring No. 1 on the depth chart and left the spring in the same spot. The brother of Miami standout TE Greg Olsen, he was even chosen as a captain by his teammates. He doesn't have the talent of Matt Schaub and he sure won't be running around like Marques Hagans, but Olsen knows the offense well and gets to throw to the deepest group of receivers and tight ends of the Al Groh era.

After the graduation of ACC career TD leader Wali Lundy, it's tough putting the tailback situation in the "answers" category -- especially since not a whole lot was decided. We do know, however, there's plenty of talent in this backfield and that Groh is all for the two-tailback rotation this fall. Converted fullback Jason Snelling successfully changed his position, while former Parade All-American Michael Johnson changed his attitude and looks ready to finally break out as a senior. The staff also liked what they saw out of sophomore Cedric Peerman and are extremely high on redshirt freshman Mikell Simpson.

Clint Sintim started every game at outside linebacker last season, but Groh said recently it was more of a "take-up-space" position for the Cavs last year. Not in 2006. Now a sophomore, Sintim was a monster this spring.

So was redshirt freshman Jeffrey Fitzgerald. As a result, Virginia is no longer anxiously seeking a replacement for DE Brennan Schmidt, who tied a conference record by starting in 51 games. Fitzgerald won the starting spot over sophomore Alex Field.

The BAD:

The Virginia Cavaliers only bring back 5 starters on the offensive side of the ball and 6 starters on the defensive side. On top of this, these losses were not only at key positions, but they were also STUD players! They will be very hard to replace and Groh has officially come out in the Spring and pronounced this season as a true "rebuilding" year. "We have a significant rebuilding job ahead of us," Groh said. "We've had some losses, some pretty huge losses … "

The defense will now start a grand total of one senior. And who is going to plug the holes up the middle? The interior of the line is a mess and the terrific inside linebacking duo of Brooks and Kai Parham, who left early for the NFL, is now history.

So Olsen has the quarterback job, but who will be protecting his blind side? Or for that matter, his not-so-blind side? And what about the guy who snaps him the ball? All-American tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson leaves a gaping hole, but it's not the only one. Center Brian Barthelmes and the other tackle, Brad Butler, are also gone. That's 124 career starts in all. Experienced replacements waiting in the wings? Not so much.

So is the punter really replacing the school's all-time scoring leader? With reliable kicker Connor Hughes out of eligibility, it looks like Chris Gould is relinquishing his starting job at punter to try something he hasn't done since high school. He won't do both, though, which leaves the inexperienced Ryan Weigand as his replacement.

The UGLY:

No ACC team has experienced more offseason turmoil -- an arrest, player dismissals and injuries -- than Virginia, which ended the 2005 season on a positive note by defeating Minnesota 34-31 in the Music City Bowl to finish 7-5. As if the departures of several top seniors, including quarterback Marques Hagans and All-American offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, weren't enough to overcome, word came on the eve of spring practice that three starters on the Cavaliers' defense had been kicked off the team. Linebacker Ahmad Brooks, safety and team captain Tony Franklin and defensive end Vince Redd were all banished for various infractions that Groh has refused to detail. Brooks and Franklin were three-year starters, while Redd made a career-high nine tackles in the Music City Bowl win.

Groh was forced to overhaul his staff following the departures of offensive coordinator Ron Prince, defensive coordinator Al Golden and special teams coordinator Mark D'Onofrio. Groh brought in four new assistants and promoted his son, Mike, to offensive coordinator. Of his new staff, Groh said, "It's a very challenging way … to break into their positions."

If the losses were not bad enough, Virginia's woes continue in fall camp:
Deyon Williams, Virginia's best wide receiver, will undergo surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot Friday and will be out indefinitely, Cavaliers Coach Al Groh said yesterday. Williams, a senior captain, probably will miss Virginia's season-opening game at Pittsburgh on Sept. 2.


Need I say more?? LOL Some of you are wanting great reasons to take Pitt here, and I think Big Al will give them to you, but the fact is, Pitt only has to go out and play good, tough, sound football against this team to win by a TD or more.
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(Article was written with help from ESPN Archives.)
 
SoonerBS--Where does the line go? At -3.5 now, but looks like it could bounce around between -3 and -4.
 
rjurewitz said:
SoonerBS--Where does the line go? At -3.5 now, but looks like it could bounce around between -3 and -4.

Personally, I don't think it will vary more than a half a point either way unless more players are lost to injury on one or the other teams.
 
SoonerBS said:
Personally, I don't think it will vary more than a half a point either way unless more players are lost to injury on one or the other teams.

Well right now good juice at Pinny at -3.5 (-103).
 
Well...Den has the dfirst half done.

Great job. I will be back with my half later tonight after midnight eastern.:cheers:
 
I was already on this bad boy from day 1.. You know its butta
 
Saw that Den////and i was waiting to play..like a dummy...oh well..still like it a lot. I will get my shit down within next 12 hours.
 
Okay. Part One. Offense

First, lets look back at last year:

It was a typical year for a team with a new coach. A new system and philospohies led to quite a few rough spots. As in any situation like this things got a bit better as the season wore down.

Throw away those first three games last season. This may not sound logical but those games are throwaways in my opinion. They were horrid and with new coach/system should have been expected. I think we too many times focus on a little stretch like this that skews our view of a particular situation. After those three they did go 5-3 ats on lined games. Two of those losses were too UL and WVU. Lets remember that WVU was rolling on all cylinders at the end of last year and both games were on the road.Four outta the last five that they were chalked they covered no problem. The exception was Rutgers where they did provide a furious comeback.

Taking into account the late good play lets look at our QB here Tyler Palko. This guy had some struggles obviously with the new coach/offense. He passed for almost 3100 with a nice 24/7 ratio in 2004. Last year, his numbers were respectable but not nearly as good (2400, 17-9). He averaged almost 20 yards more per game the last eight contests and improved his pass completion percentage as the season wore on.

A good offensive line and running game make a QB's life easier. Injuries were certainly a concern last year as well as inconsitent play. This year the offensive line returns 4 starters and should give a better protection to Palko. They improved steadily last year. They allowed only 6 sacks the L4 games after 24 the F7 games. The running game really bottomoed out two years ago at 2.3 ypc. That crepped up to 3.2 last year and should get closer to 4 this season. Wannstedt really is striving the running game. Even though they may not be all that talented at RB they should be better. A focus on the run plus a better line will beat out talent IMO.

The Wr's lost Lee and Gill. A young group with a few veterans will have to step up quick. They have a veteran QB to get them the ball though and that eases my concerns a bit. The TE Strong is a big guy that could make more big plays this season.

As you look at this Pitt offense this year( and for wahoo's game) I think there are thre great factors:

1. QB play
2. O line
3. Commitment to the ground game

They will stay on ground and that opens up play-action and in turn keeps pressure of Palko and recievers.
 
Part Two. Defense

This just may well be the best defense in the Big East. Excellent secondary, a stud at LB in Blades and what should be an improved defensive line. The special teams(which I include in defense) are also solid and won't blow a game with mistakes.

UL and WVU did run on them quite well last year at end of year. Thats to be expected from a great 2 way attack at Louisville and the way Slaton/White were rolling lst half of season for the Mountaineers. Other than that they played the run well last half of season. They routinely kept teams in the 2's and 3's as far as ypc in concerned. With the improved d-line expect more consisistent perfomance here.

Rutgers, Notre Dame and UL all passed well against Pitt last year. The other opponents were average at best. I understand that they played Cuse and wvu in league play and those teams breaking 100 passing is cause for celebration.

Pitt ended the season at -4 in Turnovers due to the WVU game(-4 there alone). The encouraging factor though is that they were even or minus in the first 6 games. The last 5, they won the battle 4 times.

This defense seems to be pretty deep and will have good units from the line to the backfield.
 
Summary.

First of all, you prolly noticed a trend in my Pitt talks. It was about the imrovement throughout Wannstedt's first season. It was quite eveident how much better they were by November than when they kicked it off in early September.

Second, new things in life take time. Isn't that evident the majority of the time? Of course it is. Palko got more comfortable as the year went on. He knows he can have a huge season as he has before and I expect him to be closer to his 2004 numbers than last year.

Third, the bascis of football. Running and good line play. The Panthers have it on both sides as far as line play and the staff is committed to running the ball.

Lastly, the defense will play very well and afford the offense to execute it's game plan. As Denny said, if Pitt plays a solid football game they should have no problem winning by a TD against this UVA squad.
 
pretty good actually...I still remember you helped me out in week one with that NIU vs. Michigan in-game where you walked me through the NIU backdoor cover...thanks for that...
 
I remember that very well last year bro. That was just a hectic Saturday last year.
 
Pitt receiver prospects have struggled mightily in camp

Tuesday, August 22, 2006
By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


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Alyssa Cwanger, Post-Gazette
Pitt freshman receiver T.J. Porter has shown some progress in training camp.
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Related article

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Pitt Football Notebook: Abdul doesn't get medical clearance, his college career is over
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It wasn't that long ago that Pitt earned the unofficial nickname "Wide Receiver U." because the Panthers had a propensity for producing great receivers.
The Panthers had the Big East Conference's leading receiver (yards per game) eight of the past nine seasons and became the first school to produce two Biletnikoff winners (Antonio Bryant and Larry Fitzgerald).
This year's group, however, has not progressed as expected and, if things don't improve in a hurry, Pitt could easily be referred to as "Wide Receiver, Who?"
The Panthers are set to finish camp tomorrow and likely will do so with a depth chart at wide receiver that is unsettled. And unlike other positions, such as the defensive line, where the depth chart is cloudy because so many players have performed well, the receiver position is unsettled because of inconsistency.
Junior Derek Kinder is the only receiver who has consistently played at a high level throughout training camp. He is the veteran of the group and the leading returning receiver from last year. The coaches also believe redshirt freshman Oderick Turner has played well enough to separate himself from the rest of the pack and become a second viable option at receiver.
But after Kinder and Turner, there is no third option.
Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt has tried to remain optimistic because he believes there are talented receivers on the roster, but he knows time is running short for some of the younger players to step up.
Wide receivers coach Aubrey Hill understands his group is under some pressure to perform but he isn't ready to panic because he has seen progress. He said redshirt sophomore Marcel Pestano and redshirt freshman Cedric McGee are coming along and freshman T.J. Porter has shown progress as well.
"Every day is critical and every practice is critical," Hill said. "We are looking to see which guys are really committed to the team and which guys are going to do everything right in the run game and pass game. I like what I see from Marcel and Cedric and T.J., but right now everything is tentative and is subject to be changed.
"I'd say this -- we have enough receivers to compete in the Big East, but to say we have a Larry Fitzgerald or an Antonio Bryant here, there is no way I could say something like that. There are some guys here who are very solid and will have excellent careers."
Hill pointed out that the receivers' failure to progress as fast as he would like hasn't been completely about a lack of ability. There have been injuries -- McGee (calf) and Turner (ankle) have missed some time -- and off-field issues -- Porter left the team for a day and senior Joe DelSardo has been suspended for two weeks -- that have hindered their progress as well.
The group also is extremely inexperienced -- Kinder and DelSardo are the only two with more than five receptions in a game.
But the explanations for the state of the receiving corps don't erase the fact that there is a game to be played in 11 days and the Panthers have only two receivers ready to play.
Kinder said he has seen a lot of improvement on the unit. The receivers have talked about holding on to the tradition of "Wide Receiver U." and, as the veteran of the group, it is his job to help mentor the younger players.
He said most of the younger players have had trouble making the transition from high school to college, where receivers are asked to block and need to be a lot more physical to get open.
"The guys have a lot of potential," Kinder said. "I can see the younger guys getting over the humps and starting to understand what it takes. It is a process. We know all about Wide Receiver U. and what it means and that's what we want to be known as, too. I think we take it a step further and look at the Steelers' receivers and how hard-nosed they are and that's what we want to be, too. "We'll get there. It has been a slow process, but I'm confident we'll get there."
 
Sooner/Bar...

A play at -4.5 guys?

I can get that at -110 right now... -120 -4.

What you guys think? I think it's still solid for a strong home club but want others insight.
 
Inspekdah said:
Sooner/Bar...

A play at -4.5 guys?

I can get that at -110 right now... -120 -4.

What you guys think? I think it's still solid for a strong home club but want others insight.

I think so. Virginia had another defection from the team yesterday. Their woes are just escalating.

University of Virginia junior offensive tackle Eddie Pinigis transferred to Liberty yesterday after deciding to leave the Virginia football program over the weekend. He entered the season first on the depth chart at right tackle, but redshirt freshman Will Barker recently overtook him.
"I feel like I'm a starter. I feel like I should be a starter up there," said Pinigis, who started five games last season. "The other day they came out with the depth chart, and they had me on the second team. I feel like I didn't do anything to lose my first-team spot. I played against some of the best defensive ends in the ACC. I felt like I proved myself with my game experience."
 
B.A.R. said:
This just may well be the best defense in the Big East. Excellent secondary, a stud at LB in Blades and what should be an improved defensive line. The special teams(which I include in defense) are also solid and won't blow a game with mistakes.

UL and WVU did run on them quite well last year at end of year. Thats to be expected from a great 2 way attack at Louisville and the way Slaton/White were rolling lst half of season for the Mountaineers. Other than that they played the run well last half of season. They routinely kept teams in the 2's and 3's as far as ypc in concerned. With the improved d-line expect more consisistent perfomance here.

Rutgers, Notre Dame and UL all passed well against Pitt last year. The other opponents were average at best. I understand that they played Cuse and wvu in league play and those teams breaking 100 passing is cause for celebration.

Pitt ended the season at -4 in Turnovers due to the WVU game(-4 there alone). The encouraging factor though is that they were even or minus in the first 6 games. The last 5, they won the battle 4 times.

This defense seems to be pretty deep and will have good units from the line to the backfield.

remember, Blades got hurt in that U of L game too and wasn't the same the rest of the year....He really is a nasty LB..
 
Very true jump. He should have huge year.

Spek, I would lay up to 6 in this one. I am happy with my number. I don't see it being close to spread
 
Cavaliers Are Hurting on the Inside
U-Va. Turns to Young Linebackers to Replace Brooks and Parham

[SIZE=-1]By Adam Kilgore
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 23, 2006; E03
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Clint Sintim caught some of the Cincinnati Bengals' first preseason game a couple of weeks ago, watching former Virginia teammate Ahmad Brooks make his NFL debut, "cracking skulls out there." Sintim grew up down the street from Brooks in Woodbridge, so he knows the former all-American well.
"There's no better athlete in the world than Ahmad," Sintim said. "No better athlete in the world."
Rather than watching him on television, Sintim could have been playing next to Brooks this fall. But Brooks turned pro after he was dismissed from the team following his injury-riddled junior season. Had Brooks and Kai Parham, who also turned pro after his junior year, returned, the Cavaliers would have had perhaps the best inside linebacker duo in the nation. Instead, the Cavaliers' inside spots, crucial to the team's success with its 3-4 defensive formation, will be filled by a pair of sophomores who have combined for 37 career tackles.
With Sintim and junior Jermaine Dias on the outside, Antonio Appleby and Jon Copper likely will start in the middle, meaning two mostly unknown players will replace the team's biggest names.
"That's something the whole team is rallying around," Appleby said. "We're a bunch of no-name guys. You don't have a name the first day you get here. You have to go out and prove it on the field to get the notoriety."
This offseason, the entire team reported to weightlifting sessions wearing collared shirts with name tags that simply read, "Joe." The point? The entire team was constructed of average Joes. The linebackers epitomize that notion.
"There's no superstar," defensive coordinator Mike London said. "The work ethic and the mind-set is: 'Hey, look, there's nobody better than anybody else. There's no one person that stands above anyone else.' Collectively, in the spring, these guys are fun guys to coach. I like these guys; I like these players. Sometimes, you can't always say that."
Sintim, who started every game last season as a redshirt freshman, will be counted on to lead the young group. He has more experience than any other returning Virginia linebacker, and the Gar-Field graduate is the Cavaliers' third-leading returning tackler behind defensive backs Marcus Hamilton (Centreville) and Tony Franklin with 53.
"Even though I'm going into my second year playing, I think I am a veteran as far as people on the team and understanding what role I have to play for my teammates," Sintim said. "Not too many guys on the team have played a full year of football."
Though Brooks missed six games because of injuries last season, including Virginia's Music City Bowl victory, he was a terror when on the field, earning first-team all-America honors after his sophomore season. But Groh dismissed Brooks from the team for unspecified reasons just before this year's spring practice, and the Bengals subsequently selected Brooks in the third round of the NFL supplemental draft.
Parham might have been even more important. He led the team with 103 tackles and eight sacks, starting every game before declaring for the NFL draft. It seems Parham should have remained at Virginia. He went undrafted before being signed as a free agent by the Dallas Cowboys, who already have waived him.
"When they left, it was definitely a loss for the team," Sintim said. "They were two of the best inside linebackers in the nation. I have so much confidence in guys like Antonio Appleby and John Copper. Guys who are willing to work hard and improve."
They'll have to improve in a hurry. Groh's 3-4 formation places a premium on linebacker play and depth at the position. While linemen in the system occupy blocks and clog the line, the linebackers are counted on as playmakers, roles filled well by Brooks and Parham.
But now they're gone, so a new set of linebackers are trying to emerge at Virginia. It's hard not to think of what could have been with the defense, but that's the objective for now.
"Those players really don't have any bearing on this year's team," Virginia Coach Al Groh said. "While they're certainly well respected in what they did, I think that they've been pretty well forgotten by members of this year's team. Players have a short memory. They're really just interested in what's going to occur today."
 
Pitt Football: Some key issues not likely to be solved before opener

Wednesday, August 23, 2006
By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


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Matt Freed, Post-Gazette
LaRod Stephens-Howling will have plenty of company in the backfield when the Panthers open against Virginia next week at Heinz Field.
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Looking ahead

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Game: Pitt vs. Virginia in the season opener.
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When: 7 p.m. Sept. 2.
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Where: Heinz Field.
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TV: ESPNU. Preseason football polls
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Today is the final day of Pitt's preseason training camp, and the Panthers will end it in grand fashion with a full-contact scrimmage this afternoon.
The Panthers will have two more practices -- tomorrow and Friday -- before they begin full-scale preparations for their Sept. 2 opener against Virginia.
Camp has provided a number of answers, but a few questions linger. Some, like those about the defensive line, exist because there are a lot of players who apparently deserve playing time.
But at other positions, such as kicker, running back and receiver, the questions potentially could turn into problems when the season begins.
The most glaring unsettled issue is at kicker now that senior David Abdul is officially out for the season after heart surgery. Walk-on sophomore Conor Lee was the frontrunner, but he missed several days with a sore hamstring.
Lee has been competing with walk-on freshman Dan Hutchins for the starting job. Both kickers have lacked consistency, and neither one has kicked in a college game. Wannstedt said the kickers will get two opportunities to kick at Heinz Field before the opener, and he is confident one will emerge and be ready to help the team.
"Both of our kickers have had good camps and both are capable of going in there and kicking a game-winning field goal," Wannstedt said. "Conor wanted to kick [yesterday], but I told him to wait another day to make sure he's healthy. Hopefully, we can work some of the other things out in our last scrimmage [today]. We'll have them do a lot of kicking. I mean, we don't have any other choices. That's where we are at."
The situation at running back, supposedly an area of strength, likely depends on the health of freshman Dorin Dickerson, who is recovering from an ankle injury. Dickerson is the only running back with the right combination of speed and size to be a featured back, but he has not made it through practice for a full day yet.
Wannstedt said yesterday that all four scholarship tailbacks will play against Virginia. Sophomore LaRod Stephens-Howling will be the starter, but he will split time with sophomore Shane Brooks and freshman Kevin Collier as well as Dickerson. All have different styles and assets.
"It is unfortunate for Dorin because he's not hurt, but he's not 100 percent," Wannstedt said. "His day will come, though. It is a long season, and he'll be able to showcase his talent. He is a competitor, and we all know what he is capable of."
The other unstable position is receiver, where redshirt freshman Oderick Turner is the only player who has stepped up and grabbed an open position alongside junior Derek Kinder. While coaches have sung the praises of every receiver one day or another, none has played with enough consistency to separate himself from the others.
Wannstedt warned that some issues won't be resolved all season, but added that such is life with a young team.
"We are going into the season with a lot of positions cleared up, but we also have the mentality that we have to play a lot of guys. There are very few positions where we can look at it and say we are locked in to one guy, and that's good, that can be healthy. When you have a young football team like we are, competition is good."
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I hate to get this at -3.5, but I have to. I think they cover by a TD and hope that at worst they cover by 4.

Still not completely sold on Nebraska but I might play that too. Don't like 3 TD chalk in the 1st week and I prefer Florida over USM in that kind of spot to Nebraska.

GL, Sooner.
 
Sounds like they are going to run the shit out of the ball, but both teams will have DL issues. Good for Pitt with the proven O, bad for UVa with the unproven O.
 
rjurewitz said:
I hate to get this at -3.5, but I have to. I think they cover by a TD and hope that at worst they cover by 4.

Still not completely sold on Nebraska but I might play that too. Don't like 3 TD chalk in the 1st week and I prefer Florida over USM in that kind of spot to Nebraska.

GL, Sooner.

The last couple of years the big faves have covered pretty well in the first week. I'm more comfortable laying the chalk now than I will be week 3 and onward.
 
Alright. Looking at the big chalk and Pitt, I've got the lines capped at the following:

Nebraska -24
Florida -22
Pitt -7

Right now the line is on the right side of key numbers. Florida and Nebraska are going up to 3 TDs.

Sooner, you're on #1 and #3. Getting a piece of Florida too?
 
I cannot see the future but if this game gets to 4, i'll be playing the Wahoos. Yes, it has not been a great off-season for UVa but Pitt is nothing to write home about either. i see a FG winning this game. just my 2 cents.
 
Al Groh is the east coast (south) version of Dirk Koetter, and Wandstedt is the east coast (north) version...what a bunch of idiots...
 
Tarheel, you just a CTG consesus fader? Have you seen Pitt's record at home and ATS? Plus the eerie start of last season is long behind them. They get their roll on here.
 
Some of you guys like to hear "behind the scenes" information, I heard some about Wandstedt yesterday. Pat Jones, former head coach at Oklahoma State and assistant coach to Wandstedt at Miami, is now a sports radio host on the Sports Animal out here in Oklahoma. He tells a lot of "behind the scenes" shit about college and NFL football because he's retired from the business and doesn't give a shit about what he says, LOL.

He said that he talked to Wandstedt the other day over the phone and he asked him what was going to be different about this year's team that was not there about the team last season. He said Wandstedt emphasized the word "tougher." He admitted to being soft on them coming from NFL to college and he said he decided that had to change after the season. He started some "old school" tactics of toughening up his players back in the Spring and has continued them through the Summer and fall camp. They are "running the hill" there around their practice facility and other stuff that leaves the players panting for air. He said there has been a lot of "beer tossing" going on at every practice (vomiting.)

Pags, every coach I have ever heard talk about Wandstedt has high respect for his abilities. He had a no win situation coming into Pitt last season and he has to totally rebuild their system. They will be better than they were last year, and they will be even better in the years to come IMO.
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Inspekdah said:
Tarheel, you just a CTG consesus fader? Have you seen Pitt's record at home and ATS? Plus the eerie start of last season is long behind them. They get their roll on here.


Inspector,


i'll take Al Groh and the points over Wanny any ol day of the week. best out of 10, i'll win 7 of them. unfortunaltey we only have best out of one here. still love my chances. BOL to ya.
 
Tarheel Brn&Bred said:
Inspector,


i'll take Al Groh and the points over Wanny any ol day of the week. best out of 10, i'll win 7 of them. unfortunaltey we only have best out of one here. still love my chances. BOL to ya.

Tarheel,
And you think Mike Shula laying 17 points to June Jones is a good deal?
 
den, he sucked with the bears, sucked with the dolphins and has sucked with Pitt...coaches may respect him, but he hasn't shown an ability to ge the job done on a consistent basis...
 
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