Phillies/Brewers series Thoughts/Predictions etc.

[signalcaller]

I have to go to English Class right now (worst class ever) but once I get back from this i will post some shit. Brewers rotation looks to be
Game 1 Yovanni
Game 2 Sabathia
Game 3 Bush

but game 1 could change depending on how Yo feels. I am excited since Braun is now somewhat healthy again and his power swing back. Should be a hell of a series. I think Lidge is the deciding factor and thus the Phillies win in 5.

 

[Smokedawg]

Ill get into some thoughts a little later, but I just wanted to share this pic...

If that pic was cropped like a quarter inch lower from the top and you didnt see the bottle, we might have to add a NSFW tag to the thread....

 

[Tide High]

aaahaha that's hilarious.

 

[cogenman]

Yeah signalcaller, the bullpens are a complete 180 of each other. Phillies have one and the Brew Crew don't. Unless CC, Sheets (if healthy) and the rest of the starters can go deep into the game, I don't think they have a shot.

 

[signalcaller]

Sheets will not pitch at all. Looks like he is shut down for the rest of he year

 

[Smokedawg]

Myers is gonna start game 2

Moyer will go game 3

 

[signalcaller]

So we have
Game 1- Yovanni/Hamels
Gam 2- CC/Myers
Game 3- TBA (Suppan or Bush)/Moyer

I am hoping for September Myers so we can take one in Philly

 

[Smokedawg]

I am hoping for September Myers so we can take one in Philly

Me too...I'll take September 14th's Myers to be exact

:smiley_acbe:

 

[Fondybadger]

So milwaukee will get to clinch at home, that's nice

 

[Smokedawg]

Brewers better not just be happy to be there or theyll be gone before they know what hit them

happened to the Fightins last year...

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Tough series to evaluate. I think the Phillies would be a slam dunk here if I had more faith in Myers. Despite his great turnaround in the second half, his last two starts looked like the pre AS break Brett Myers.

The Brewers are in a similar position the Phillies were last year. An emotionally draining regular season with a great conclusion. The Brewers are very young and will be happy just to be there. I like the Phillies pen in this series.

I think the Phillies take it in four or five.

 

[$$CMoney$$]

I like the Phillies going with Myers in game 2 against CC...Hes either gonna get lit up in a game that CC might smoke the Phills anyway or hes gonna pitch a gem and keep them in the game against CC...All I know is the Phills cant lose any of the games in which CC dosent pitch

 

[Fondybadger]

I think Phils take the series in 4

 

[cogenman]

Imagine if the Brewers somehow snuck out with a win in game 1. Then had CC going in game 2.....

 

[$$CMoney$$]

The Phils look like they are probably gonna be the biggest favorite in Game 1 in the 4 different series...With a -200 on Hamels it would be a disaster if they failed to win game 1

 

[~Utah]

There is absouletly no way in hell that the Phillies win game 1 with Hamels, NO WAY

 

[Throwback420]

There is absouletly no way in hell that the Phillies win game 1 with Hamels, NO WAY

:36_11_6:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

NLDS - Brewers versus Phillies
Permalink
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>NL Ranks</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Brewers</TH><TH>Phillies</TH></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>4.63 (7th)</TD><TD align=right>4.93 (2nd-T)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Batting Avg.</TD><TD align=right>.253 (12th)</TD><TD align=right>.255 (10th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>On-Base Average</TD><TD align=right>.325 (10th)</TD><TD align=right>.332 (7th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>/Slugging Pct.</TD><TD align=right>.431 (5th)</TD><TD align=right>.438 (2nd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>ERA</TD><TD align=right>3.85 (2nd)</TD><TD align=right>3.88 (4th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Strikeouts/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>6.9 (9th)</TD><TD align=right>6.7 (12th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>3.3 (5th-T)</TD><TD align=right>3.3 (5th-T)</TD></TR><TR><TD>HR/200 IP</TD><TD align=right>24.0 (12th)</TD><TD align=right>22.1 (7th)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

This series pits a great offensive team versus a great pitching team. The Brewers rank as high in preventing runs as the Phillies do in scoring runs. They are not much better than the Phillies, however, in keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. The two teams walk the same number of batters and the Phillies are better at preventing home runs. The Brewers advantage comes from more strikeouts and a better DER, but not that much better. Milwaukee's comes in at .708, Philadelphia's .703.

The teams diverge on offense. While a seven point difference in OBA and a seven point difference in slugging percentage doesn't seem like much, combined they point to a big difference in offense. With nearly identical batting averages, the larger OBA difference points to a more selective team in Philadelphia, and the larger slugging percentage difference indicates more the Phillies hits go for extra bases. More men on plus more long hits advancing them means more runs. This shows up in their head-to-head numbers:

<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>Head to Head</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Brewers</TH><TH>Phillies</TH></TR><TR><TD>Wins</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>2.67</TD><TD align=right>5.50</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>25</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Runs</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

On top of the Phillies bringing a better offense to the series, the Brewers starting pitching stand in tatters. Yovani Gallardo starts game one after a four inning outing five days ago, his first off the disabled list. Even if he pitches well, Gallardo will likely turn the game over to the bullpen early. Sabathia follows for game two, but Suppan and Bush are crap shoots. It's too bad Ben Sheets broke down now after helping the team get this far. He and Sabathia would prove formidable against any opponent.

Meanwhile, Hamels and Moyer are solid for Philadelphia. Even if Myers lost what was working for him most of the second half of the season, Charlie Manuel can call on the bullpen early. I especially like that Jamie Moyer pitches game three on the road, as he's strongest away from Philadelphia.
My matchup to watch is Prince Fielder versus Ryan Howard. Both power hitting first basemen are capable of lifting their teams with their offense, but also pulling them down with strikeouts if they slump.

Based on a better offense and, at the moment, a stronger pitching staff, I give the Phillies a 75% chance of winning this series.

Brewers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.
Phillies batters vs. Brewers, 2008.
Brewers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.
Phillies pitchers vs. Brewers, 2008.

 

[signalcaller]

I am praying Yovani keeps it close but even if he does he can only go 6 innings max which then gets us into this bullpen situation of the Brewers. Gagne has actually pitched well lately so he can be the 8th inning guy with a lead. Villanueva will relieve Yo so theres 2 innings. I am hoping for a 3-2 type of game and the Brewers squeaking out Game 1, which would be just huuuge in terms of momentum.

 

[Smokedawg]

The news is coming fast and furious today. . .


Pat Burrell left batting practice today after experiencing discomfort in his lower back while taking a swing. He left the field, gingerly walking down the steps before disappearing into the clubhouse.


The official word from the Phillies is that he will be re-evaluated tomorrow.


I have no idea how serious it might be.


Burrell is one of the few Phillies who had success against Brewers righthander Yovani Gallardo last season. Burrell hit a solo home run off the young starter in the seventh inning of the Phillies' eventual loss.


Gallardo will start Game One on Wednesday.

I don't expect to hear anything else tonight, so stay tuned tomorrow

 

[Trueblue]

gallardo is one scary mofo. He has some of the nastiest shit i have seen for a young gun. He is also NOT restricted on a PC according to him, which may be an overstatement, but i expect at least 80 hurls... At +180 i love the value, but CC the next game hurts a lot... may hit the 1st 5 under, but expect hamels to be victim of a few big flys. Gallardo has allowed ONE run this entire season. Pat Burrell homer...and he probably aint playing tomorrow

 

[HUNT]

Newsflash: Phillies are not the 1927 Yankees

 

[Smokedawg]

Newsflash: Phillies are not the 1927 Yankees

Perhaps not, but they did hit 56 more home runs than them

:smiley_acbe:

 

[HUNT]

lol

I guess I just think the series will be closer than people think...

 

[Smokedawg]

anybody that thinks the phillies are gonna walk right through this doesnt know how the phillies like to do things...

when you think theyre gonna zig, they zag

i wouldnt be surprised to see them get beat tomorrow and then come out and light Sabathia up the next day

literally anything is possible...they could get swept or they could win the World Series

theyre all over the place

 

[New_York_Bob]

Phils sweep

Outscore Brewers 21-8

 

[Blue_Chip]

The most evenly matched divisional series IMO.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

CC on the Side

Sabathia really is an iron man!

A "bored" Milwaukee Brewers team had ace pitcher CC Sabathia throw a 180-pitch side session Tuesday to help pass some time, a day before the team takes on the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series. ...
"After about 100 pitches, they asked me to throw 40 curveballs in a row," Sabathia said. "So that was sort of tiring and a bit painful. Then, on the last 20 pitches, they made me wear a weighted vest. It's really hard to pitch with an extra 80 pounds on your body after you've already thrown 160 pitches. But I sort of bowed my neck and got through it."
​

He should be sufficiently warmed up for game 2.

 

[Tito]

Perhaps not, but they did hit 56 more home runs than them

:smiley_acbe:

Well, yea, any major league team would when they play in a little league ball park like the Phils do

 

[Smokedawg]

Well, yea, any major league team would when they play in a little league ball park like the Phils do

They hit 109 HRs at home compared to 105 HRs on the road

they can hit it out of any park...

 

[signalcaller]

Just under 4 hours. Agree with some of the thoughts in this thread. I think evenly matched series as well. Lot of people just think are the team that is "happy to be here" not really. They got the vets like Cameron, Durham, Kendall that keep them out of that mindframe and the swagger of Braun who thinks anything less than a world series is unacceptable. Game 1 is the big one imo. If the Brewers can beat Hamels watch out

 

[Sarcastic Sword]

Milw feasts on LHP...Im taking a shot w/ Milw today......

 

[Trueblue]

Game 1:

Demuth bhp. Give me the under first 5 with two power pitchers.

 

[Smokedawg]

Pat The Bat is in the lineup

 

[Shortline]

Give me OVER 8.5 in Phi

 

[HereWeGo]

On the over 1H....good luck Shorty.

 

[Smokedawg]

Huuuuuuge win today

Bring it home, Fightins!!!

'an_horse'

 

[Fondybadger]

I'm going to cry... then go cash in the $150 on Phils winning the series

 

[Smokedawg]

I think Id blame/thank Corey Hart...what the hell was he doing swinging at that first pitch in the first inning??

 

[$$CMoney$$]

What an at bat by Brett Myers:smiley_acbe:...Nice to see him back to his good form as well(after the 1st)

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I don't think there's any doubt Philly will be undervalued come the NLCS. Given both teams went 4-0 on home turf with Manny present, HFA being undervalued here is going to criminal.

 

[Smokedawg]

Greatest at bat in the history of postseason baseball??

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[Smokedawg]

2nd greatest at bat in post season history???

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[CapTwo]

now may be the time for this.........

phillies +100 for the pennant? theyre going to close this series out... maybe milky wins game 3 and avoids the sweep against moyer but thats about all theyre going to get

phills should be about -140 for the series against LAD, barring some crazy assd shit that happens in either series

i kind of see value in this number, as youre basically getting them at even $$$ for the series

great energy and effort by the phills so far though, gotta give it up to em.
only red flag so far has been lidge. victorino is the fuckin man and its nice to see him finally getting in the limelight- been underrated all year long but still one of the leaders on this squad. he just makes things happen when he needs to, or when everyone else was slumping.
citizens bank is such a crazy place to play, those mofo fans were goin nuts on every foul ball!
phillies/rays would be an interesting WS

 

[Smokedawg]

ugh ugh ugh ugh

I have tickets to game 5 on Tuesday

I hope I dont have to use them...

the Phillies offense has been beyond terrible so far...theyve scored in 3 innings out of 25...its a miracle that theyre somehow up 2 games to 1

 

[Throwback420]

Its goin 5

it would be great for MLB if CC gets a 2nd chance.

 

[HereWeGo]

Question for you guys:

Before the NL/ALDS I laid 5 units on each of the 4 underdogs in each series. Already hit with LAD and hopefully will hit with Boston.

Do you think I should try to hedge out of the PHI/MIL series? If so, how would you suggest that I do so? I got it at 500 to win 775. Was thinking of putting 345 to win 300 on the Phils tomorrow so if they win I'd only have lost 200 on the series. Problem is, if they lose, I'm down 345 going into a winner take all on Monday and not sure how I would just hedge out to break even...would assume I'd lay 775-345 on the Phills Game 5.

What do you guys think/advise?

-HWG

 

[Smokedawg]

Its goin 5

it would be great for MLB if CC gets a 2nd chance.

it wouldnt be great for this guy...

im hoping we can hang like a 7 spot on Suppan in the first tomorrow

that guy sucks, if we cant hit him, we might as well give up

 

[Smokedawg]

Pat The Bat baby!!!

Bring on those bums from LA!!!!