Philip Rivers is a home dog this weekend

Looking that way as well.

Bolo is 30-6 SU in his NFL career during December (20-1 SU against opponents off a SU loss).

GL bro.
 
I'd be very shocked to see the Pats drop two in a row. I thought this line would be a tad higher. SD throwing all over a Balty D who handed them that W doesn't impress me. I don't see Phyllis throwing like that against Revis & Browner.

Pats went straight out west from GB. Heard Tom on the Tuesday morning call in spot on local radio. Sounded like they were all business this week with no family distractions.
 
Yeah, tommy should have a field day on that pass defense, one of the worst in the league.
Line up to 4 at 5dimes though...
 
Sunday night game to boot isnt tom from California? Might b the next Arnold Swartznigger out there. . pats by 30
 
Look up the numbers on Rivers as a dog in the NFL. Its all you need to like this play.
 
Hit it last week ATS and ML. Was wondering if I should stick my hand back into the cookie jar. The Pats practicing at San Diego University since Wednesday though. BB flew the team directly from Green Bay out to California.
 
Rivers 23-26 (.469) SU and 29-19-1 (.604) ATS as the underdog in his career with a 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS record as the home dog in those games. He is 5-8 SU and 7-5-1 ATS as the underdog after winning the previous game as the underdog and 3-2 SU and ATS in that situation at home. Your point is good but that god damn Belichick, man. Has had them out there since Wednesday and I can't get over that.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Oddly, I don't think NE is that great, so I like the wager
Click to expand...

So i am curious...if you don't think NE is that great then who would you rate above them in a power ranking chart....I am a homer so I am prejudiced toward NE but I have to feel that they are one of the 3-4 best teams in the NFL and if they get home field then I really cannot see them not making the SB....so where does "not that great" come from....do not want to be argumentative but I don't see a lot of better teams out there...feel free to knock me off my perch and I was initially against laying the points but as the week has progressed and I have capped the game I keep coming up with a Pats win....and as far as trends for rivers go I can see Rivers at home as a home dog being a auto play but I can't buy into a 20-1 su after a loss as meaning anything in this particular case as it is a super important game to both teams....statistically NE is the superior team and the only hope that SD has is that it is at home...if this game were in foxboro the line would be 7.5 and the final would not be that close...imo
 
week to week everything changes in the nfl and i cannot fault anyone for taking the trending numbers toward rivers and sd as a dog at home....but if you look at the body of work and carve out the quality teams that have participated in that trend I think...key word think... that the numbers would be less favorable toward sd....and scroggy....lov your stuff,you are way better than me but NE just played a heck of a game against gb and only allowed that great o 26 points....how many do you think rivers is going to score against them...lets say he equals aaron and puts up 26....unlikely....but if he does do you really think that sd d is going to keep terrific tom to 21 again....I won't lay 3.5 or 4 with the pats....but i very well may lay heavy juice at 3....and i hate laying heavy juice
 
NE coming off games vs. Peyton, Luck, Det (#1 defense), then losing to GB. Just been a brutal stretch and I've made plenty off Rivers getting points over the years. GL if you play it
 
scdoggy said:
Look up the numbers on Rivers as a dog in the NFL. Its all you need to like this play.
Click to expand...

Conversely have a looksie into a River's led Chargers team versus a Brady-led Pats team. SD is a perfect 0-5
 
scdoggy said:
NE coming off games vs. Peyton, Luck, Det (#1 defense), then losing to GB. Just been a brutal stretch and I've made plenty off Rivers getting points over the years. GL if you play it
Click to expand...

this is a very good point...it has been a physically demanding month and if this game is tight going into the 4th the pats could run out of energy....i'm nervous
 
Doggy: I certainly am not going agst you on this....if Chargers win I also get my season win prop winner on Chargers
 
Would love to see SD win for my season win total bet, and I will definitely be pulling for you, but some scary stuff against us on this one:

Brady 5-0 vs Rivers
bellicheat 45-15 after a loss (per NFL network - have not confirmed)
Bellicheat treating this as a must win game.
Tough assignment for SD's backup C today
 
SD played their fifth center of the season last week. Hard to tell who the "backup" is at this point.
 
Yep, that was my point. They are way down the depth chart at that position against a tough interior D
 
BJPLAYER said:
So i am curious...if you don't think NE is that great then who would you rate above them in a power ranking chart....I am a homer so I am prejudiced toward NE but I have to feel that they are one of the 3-4 best teams in the NFL and if they get home field then I really cannot see them not making the SB....so where does "not that great" come from....do not want to be argumentative but I don't see a lot of better teams out there...feel free to knock me off my perch and I was initially against laying the points but as the week has progressed and I have capped the game I keep coming up with a Pats win....and as far as trends for rivers go I can see Rivers at home as a home dog being a auto play but I can't buy into a 20-1 su after a loss as meaning anything in this particular case as it is a super important game to both teams....statistically NE is the superior team and the only hope that SD has is that it is at home...if this game were in foxboro the line would be 7.5 and the final would not be that close...imo
Click to expand...

I'm not a power ranking type but I don't think anyone is great this year, actually there are only good teams. I guess I'd put NE in there, but not so good that a win in SD, even while spending the week out West is automatic. They are one Gronk injury from being an 8-8 type team, as are most teams. I guess Seattle is the one I would fear the most right now, and Green Bay is a distant second, then all others.

The Pats might be one of the best teams in the NFL right now, doesn't mean they will beat the Chargers, they just aren't a great team and I'm not sure they're close to that.
 
Agree with KJ. Nobody pulling away from the pack this year. NE, Den, GB and Sea all good but with weaknesses. There is no complete team yet.
 
I think one of my favorite ways to bet this time of year is going against those perceived "great" teams. It doesn't work all the time, but reality tends to set in more times than not.
 
This play for me isn't just about the trend, its about how Rivers performs when disrespected. Love him or hate him he is one of the fiercest competitors out there and rises to the occasion when his team is counted out. Last week was a prime example. The backup center is a huge concern, and I appreciate you pointing it out Austin. I didn't know that until you posted.

Later today I'll dig up the numbers where SD is getting 3 or more points. It is even stronger as many of his losses as a dog were with +1 and +1.5 lines.

Conversely, to Zeke's point about NE being 5-0 against SD, I looked into it. Here is what I saw:

1. They haven't played NE in 4 years.
2. Here were the results, and the lines:
9/25/11 - San Diego Lost 21-35 as a 6 point dog
10/12/08 San Diego won and covered 30-10 as a 6 point fave
1/20/08 San Diego covered but lost SU in AFC Champ game 12-21 as a 14 point dog
9/16/07 San Diego lost 14 - 38 as a +3.5 dog
1/14/07 San Diego lost 21-24 as a 5 point fave.

SD is actually 2-3 ATS and 1-4 SU in these games. Indeed Matt Cassell was the QB in the game they won as the fave.
 
austinhous said:
They averaged 21 ±6 points per game in these games.
Click to expand...

all three patriot losses this year are on the road and on grass

mia hwere they had a lead at half and just wilted in the heat....wicked high index that day
kc where they just got beat like a red headed stepchild
gb where they actually played a pretty good game

so i don't think it's the grass

I think a more telling stat is that the pats are 43-5 in december over the last 11 years....they perform better as the season progresses or they don't wear down as much as the season gets deeper....personally i think it's superior prep but i'm a homer....regardless it's an impressive stat should be considered
 
austinhous said:
I want to know more about this.. :confused:
Click to expand...

belichick treats every game pretty much the same....the press and the fans change the perception but he doesn't change much (he does like to kick the jets ass though ha ha) at the conclusion of the game each week he begins to watch every snap of every game that the next opponent has played year to date and brady does the same....then they come to the wednesday morning meeting with a game plan to dissect and refine....and i think they have some kind of mano a mano competition on who can come to the meeting more prepared....belichick has admitted in his more liberal moments that if he doesn't come fully prepared that brady kicks his ass in that meeting.....what brady and bill both realize is that if they have the 1 seed then they have an infinite better chance of going to the dance and getting the pretty girl....this is the toughest challenge they have for the remainder of the year....mia at home,jets away and buff at home to finish so if they win today their chances at the dance improve greatly....my .02
 
Bolts 16-9 ATS (11-14 SU) when catching 3+ points since 2006 (the year Bolo was a starter).
 
Pats are 32-4 SU off a loss over the past 10 years & those losses have been by 1,1,3 & 4 points. I think that's a testament to how well Belicheck & Brady prepare. I'm going to finish off an open ML parlay with the Pats & hope for the best.
 
Apples & Oranges Capone. One team is good & going for HF throughout, other team sucks & is shooting to stay alive in the worst division in football.
 
kjohnson109 said:
I think one of my favorite ways to bet this time of year is going against those perceived "great" teams. It doesn't work all the time, but reality tends to set in more times than not.
Click to expand...

No. If you had bet blindly on NE, SEA, Denver, and GB every game this season you'd be up money, not down.
 
Zeke said:
Apples & Oranges Capone. One team is good & going for HF throughout, other team sucks & is shooting to stay alive in the worst division in football.
Click to expand...

Definitely. Go all in tonight and see me after the game

Edit:

I believe NO had more to play for today than NE does
 
Rex = Rivers 12-5 1 since 2012 season started (including postseason) when catching 3 or more.

GL fellas.
 
Rough losing the punter but Brady did his thing. I'll give credit....

Rough day for me with Washington and SD dropping the cash
 
No doubt big dog..just trying to make it a fun grind..with the help from ctg of course bro
 
Offense was not in sync and sputtering as we witnessed..chargers gave us all we could handle..philip in big games?
 
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