Long version of article + notes posted below. Will also post condensed version (600 words).
Second Half To Be Decisive for Huskies against PSU (Long version of article and notes: concise one posted below)
No. 11 Washington (10-2) plays No. 9 Penn State (10-2) on Saturday, December 30th, at 4 PM ET in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State opened as 3-point favorites, but are now favored by only 2 points, despite strong support from the betting public.
The Huskies can score on Penn State by taking advantage of three things: their offensive scheme, Penn State’s defensive line, PSU’s lack of defensive balance, and PSU’s lack of endurance.
Schematically, Penn State’s defense struggles against misdirection and similar forms of disguised play-calling. Two prime examples come from Pittsburgh, whose offense produced 41 more yards than PSU allows on average at home and Ohio State, which scored 39 points. Huskies’ coach Chris Petersen is notorious for this kind of offensive scheme.
PSU’s pass defense struggles exceptionally when they fail to achieve quarterback pressure even against less-talented receiving corps. They bullied low-ranked offensive lines like Northwestern and Michigan. But against Ohio State, when they managed 2 sacks and 1 QB hurry in 56 tries, the opposing quarterback went 33/39 328 yards 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke threw for 400 yards when PSU pressured him in only 9 of 63 drop-backs. Defensive end Ryan Buchholz will play in the Fiesta Bowl. But his addition won’t be decisive since, even while he was healthy, PSU’s pass defense allowed opposing quarterbacks like Iowa’s Nathan Stanley to have one of their best games when failing to apply pressure.
In assessing Washington’s offensive line, one must distinguish between pass and run protection. UW is much better at the former. They allowed an average of 1.7 sacks and 0 QB hurries in their last 3 games, including against Washington State, which ranks 8th in sack %. The key for Washington’s pass blocking will be to avoid obvious passing situations: they rank 10th in standard down sack rate allowed, but 96th in passing down sack rate allowed. Running back Myles Gaskin will be important for UW’s pass blocking by helping to avoid obvious passing situations. Gaskin can be effective against Penn State, but more so in the second half. He averages over 6 yards per carry on 1st- and 2nd- and long, but averages 1.4 yards per carry more in the second half.
Upon closer examination, the top-20 ranking of Penn State’s run defense is deceiving. Penn State’s defensive line is overrated and their linebackers lack depth. PSU’s defensive line ranks 69th in power success, meaning that they aren’t reliable in short-yardage situations. They rank 39th in stuff rate, meaning that they pretty frequently stop opposing runners at the line of scrimmage. However, these numbers are inflated because they only faced 1 tea in the top 80 in terms of yards per carry, Ohio State. Penn State lacks reliable backups at linebackers—the suspension of Manny Bowen doesn’t help— meaning that their starters are apt to lose endurance. Ohio State’s 201 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against Penn State exposed the weakness of Penn State’s defensive line and PSU's vulnerability to misdirection and attrition.
UW is a second-half team especially because Gaskin is a second-half player. UW ranks 36th in first-half points, 13th in second-half points. Gaskin’s second-half progress will be important for UW to avoid obvious passing situations. UW will boast a balanced offense with a well-protected passing attack, led by a quarterback, Jake Browning, whose accuracy and efficiency (68.9% completion, 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio) supersede what PSU’s defense has seen.
The Huskies' run defense ranks 5th vs ranked teams, 11th vs winning FBS teams. They held their toughest opponent, Stanford (4th in YPC), to 1.6 YPC below their season average, despite Stanford’s massive time of possession. PSU’s offensive line is atrocious. UW’s nose tackle, Vita Vea, excels at occupying multiple blockers so that his teammates can swarm to the ball carrier. Ryan Bates should he fit to play, but is currently listed at backup right tackle. Their o-line ranks 89th in power success rate, 105th in stuff rate, meaning that their running backs struggle in short yardage and frequently get met at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Whereas Browning proved himself against Utah’s 27th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, PSU’s McSorley only 300 yard passing games came against Michigan State, which ranks 85th vs FBS winning teams, Nebraska, which ranks 94th in the category, and Indiana, which ranks 58th in opposing passer rating. PSU’s pass protection is weak, especially on passing downs. Even though McSorley’s receiving corps has a size advantage, PSU’s bigger players will take too much time to get downfield and won’t help PSU sustain drives.
Barkley could be utilized creatively—such as to help PSU in the passing game. But the departure of their offensive coordinator will hurt. Ricky Rahne will be calling plays for the first since since PSU’s 2015 bowl game.
The Verdict
PSU Coach James Franklin is winless at Penn State away from home against ranked opponents. UW will prolong that streak behind its more balanced offense and defense.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +2
PSU: struggles repeatedly with misdirection— Pitt (41 yards above ypg allowed at home), OSU (39 points). Petersen likes misdirection.
PSU struggles when not achieving pressure on QB: OSU, MSU, even Stanley had one of his best games with Buchholz in. They’ve bullied low-ranked o-lines like Indiana and Michigan. Difference between pass and run protection! UW much better at pass protection than run protection (87th in tackles for loss allowed vs fbs winning teams): allows guys into backfield but doesn’t allow sacks. 1.7 sacks allowed and 0 qb hurries last 3 games including against solid wash st sack % (8th). Key for pass blocking is to avoid obvious passing situations (ranked 10th in standard down sack rate vs 96th in passing down) Yes UW lacks weapons: Ross, #2 WR, tight end, but OSU and Sparty pass attack not exactly filled with weapons, only good pass protection. PSU hasn’t faced QB with the accuracy and efficiency of Browning and they won’t be able to blitz against him to compensate for lack of pass rush since he was one of best vs blitz in 2016. Browning solid vs Utah 27th in opp passer rating, which ranks over 30 spots ahead of the teams which McSorely has managed 300+ against, except for Sparty, due to lack of good quarterbacks played. Yes UW runs a lot more, but Browning showed ability to pass when necessary. When he passes a lot, he can get into a rhythm. PSU isn’t prepared for this kind of offensive balance—not against OSU, not against UW.
PSU D geared towards stopping run. (ie with likes of former linebacker, second leading tackler, Allen at safety and Cabinda). Dedication to Gaskin early for sake of attrition, second half to expose lack of depth at linebacker.. UW a second-half team (36th in first half points, 13th in second half) as Gaskin is a second-half runner. (5.5 ypc 1h, 6.9 2h) Gaskin over 6 YPC on 1st and 2nd and long, can avoid obvious passing downs.
UW solid run defense (5th vs ranked, 11th vs FBS winning, vs best opponent stanford held them well below average ypc despite all their time of possession). Atrocious PSU o-line, Bates also doesn’t seem to be fully fit. D Line 6th in Adjusted sack rate for UW vs PSU’s outside top 60 in the category. Not a lot of D-line penetration against the run either: (69th in power success rate, 38th in stuff rate despite having faced one team in top 80 in terms of rush ypc, ohio state) but also thin at linebacker. Penn State 5th in tackles for loss vs FBS winning teams, but liable to be worn down due to lack of depth and lack of support from interior d-line.
PSU scoring inflated by special teams and defense (see osu), many points even with little production from Barkley—unlikely vs UW who doesn’t turn it over much, solid punting. UW didn’t allow KO return longer than 33 yards all year.
PSU wide receivers only 7 40+ yard receptions. 300 yard games vs sparty pass D that ranks 85th vs fbs winning teams, nebraska 94th, indiana 39th. Size with tight end yes, but more of a red zone thing, not for sustaining drives. Return of Murphy. PSU pass blocking also very weak (time needed for size to get down the field as opposed to a screen pass or quick slant.
Barkley dangerous in passing. Overall he can be used creatively. Perfect example: Michigan. But O-coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne calling plays for first time since 2015 bowl game
Franklin @ PSU winless away from home vs ranked opponents.
Second Half To Be Decisive for Huskies against PSU (Long version of article and notes: concise one posted below)
No. 11 Washington (10-2) plays No. 9 Penn State (10-2) on Saturday, December 30th, at 4 PM ET in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State opened as 3-point favorites, but are now favored by only 2 points, despite strong support from the betting public.
The Huskies can score on Penn State by taking advantage of three things: their offensive scheme, Penn State’s defensive line, PSU’s lack of defensive balance, and PSU’s lack of endurance.
Schematically, Penn State’s defense struggles against misdirection and similar forms of disguised play-calling. Two prime examples come from Pittsburgh, whose offense produced 41 more yards than PSU allows on average at home and Ohio State, which scored 39 points. Huskies’ coach Chris Petersen is notorious for this kind of offensive scheme.
PSU’s pass defense struggles exceptionally when they fail to achieve quarterback pressure even against less-talented receiving corps. They bullied low-ranked offensive lines like Northwestern and Michigan. But against Ohio State, when they managed 2 sacks and 1 QB hurry in 56 tries, the opposing quarterback went 33/39 328 yards 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke threw for 400 yards when PSU pressured him in only 9 of 63 drop-backs. Defensive end Ryan Buchholz will play in the Fiesta Bowl. But his addition won’t be decisive since, even while he was healthy, PSU’s pass defense allowed opposing quarterbacks like Iowa’s Nathan Stanley to have one of their best games when failing to apply pressure.
In assessing Washington’s offensive line, one must distinguish between pass and run protection. UW is much better at the former. They allowed an average of 1.7 sacks and 0 QB hurries in their last 3 games, including against Washington State, which ranks 8th in sack %. The key for Washington’s pass blocking will be to avoid obvious passing situations: they rank 10th in standard down sack rate allowed, but 96th in passing down sack rate allowed. Running back Myles Gaskin will be important for UW’s pass blocking by helping to avoid obvious passing situations. Gaskin can be effective against Penn State, but more so in the second half. He averages over 6 yards per carry on 1st- and 2nd- and long, but averages 1.4 yards per carry more in the second half.
Upon closer examination, the top-20 ranking of Penn State’s run defense is deceiving. Penn State’s defensive line is overrated and their linebackers lack depth. PSU’s defensive line ranks 69th in power success, meaning that they aren’t reliable in short-yardage situations. They rank 39th in stuff rate, meaning that they pretty frequently stop opposing runners at the line of scrimmage. However, these numbers are inflated because they only faced 1 tea in the top 80 in terms of yards per carry, Ohio State. Penn State lacks reliable backups at linebackers—the suspension of Manny Bowen doesn’t help— meaning that their starters are apt to lose endurance. Ohio State’s 201 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against Penn State exposed the weakness of Penn State’s defensive line and PSU's vulnerability to misdirection and attrition.
UW is a second-half team especially because Gaskin is a second-half player. UW ranks 36th in first-half points, 13th in second-half points. Gaskin’s second-half progress will be important for UW to avoid obvious passing situations. UW will boast a balanced offense with a well-protected passing attack, led by a quarterback, Jake Browning, whose accuracy and efficiency (68.9% completion, 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio) supersede what PSU’s defense has seen.
The Huskies' run defense ranks 5th vs ranked teams, 11th vs winning FBS teams. They held their toughest opponent, Stanford (4th in YPC), to 1.6 YPC below their season average, despite Stanford’s massive time of possession. PSU’s offensive line is atrocious. UW’s nose tackle, Vita Vea, excels at occupying multiple blockers so that his teammates can swarm to the ball carrier. Ryan Bates should he fit to play, but is currently listed at backup right tackle. Their o-line ranks 89th in power success rate, 105th in stuff rate, meaning that their running backs struggle in short yardage and frequently get met at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Whereas Browning proved himself against Utah’s 27th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, PSU’s McSorley only 300 yard passing games came against Michigan State, which ranks 85th vs FBS winning teams, Nebraska, which ranks 94th in the category, and Indiana, which ranks 58th in opposing passer rating. PSU’s pass protection is weak, especially on passing downs. Even though McSorley’s receiving corps has a size advantage, PSU’s bigger players will take too much time to get downfield and won’t help PSU sustain drives.
Barkley could be utilized creatively—such as to help PSU in the passing game. But the departure of their offensive coordinator will hurt. Ricky Rahne will be calling plays for the first since since PSU’s 2015 bowl game.
The Verdict
PSU Coach James Franklin is winless at Penn State away from home against ranked opponents. UW will prolong that streak behind its more balanced offense and defense.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +2
PSU: struggles repeatedly with misdirection— Pitt (41 yards above ypg allowed at home), OSU (39 points). Petersen likes misdirection.
PSU struggles when not achieving pressure on QB: OSU, MSU, even Stanley had one of his best games with Buchholz in. They’ve bullied low-ranked o-lines like Indiana and Michigan. Difference between pass and run protection! UW much better at pass protection than run protection (87th in tackles for loss allowed vs fbs winning teams): allows guys into backfield but doesn’t allow sacks. 1.7 sacks allowed and 0 qb hurries last 3 games including against solid wash st sack % (8th). Key for pass blocking is to avoid obvious passing situations (ranked 10th in standard down sack rate vs 96th in passing down) Yes UW lacks weapons: Ross, #2 WR, tight end, but OSU and Sparty pass attack not exactly filled with weapons, only good pass protection. PSU hasn’t faced QB with the accuracy and efficiency of Browning and they won’t be able to blitz against him to compensate for lack of pass rush since he was one of best vs blitz in 2016. Browning solid vs Utah 27th in opp passer rating, which ranks over 30 spots ahead of the teams which McSorely has managed 300+ against, except for Sparty, due to lack of good quarterbacks played. Yes UW runs a lot more, but Browning showed ability to pass when necessary. When he passes a lot, he can get into a rhythm. PSU isn’t prepared for this kind of offensive balance—not against OSU, not against UW.
PSU D geared towards stopping run. (ie with likes of former linebacker, second leading tackler, Allen at safety and Cabinda). Dedication to Gaskin early for sake of attrition, second half to expose lack of depth at linebacker.. UW a second-half team (36th in first half points, 13th in second half) as Gaskin is a second-half runner. (5.5 ypc 1h, 6.9 2h) Gaskin over 6 YPC on 1st and 2nd and long, can avoid obvious passing downs.
UW solid run defense (5th vs ranked, 11th vs FBS winning, vs best opponent stanford held them well below average ypc despite all their time of possession). Atrocious PSU o-line, Bates also doesn’t seem to be fully fit. D Line 6th in Adjusted sack rate for UW vs PSU’s outside top 60 in the category. Not a lot of D-line penetration against the run either: (69th in power success rate, 38th in stuff rate despite having faced one team in top 80 in terms of rush ypc, ohio state) but also thin at linebacker. Penn State 5th in tackles for loss vs FBS winning teams, but liable to be worn down due to lack of depth and lack of support from interior d-line.
PSU scoring inflated by special teams and defense (see osu), many points even with little production from Barkley—unlikely vs UW who doesn’t turn it over much, solid punting. UW didn’t allow KO return longer than 33 yards all year.
PSU wide receivers only 7 40+ yard receptions. 300 yard games vs sparty pass D that ranks 85th vs fbs winning teams, nebraska 94th, indiana 39th. Size with tight end yes, but more of a red zone thing, not for sustaining drives. Return of Murphy. PSU pass blocking also very weak (time needed for size to get down the field as opposed to a screen pass or quick slant.
Barkley dangerous in passing. Overall he can be used creatively. Perfect example: Michigan. But O-coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne calling plays for first time since 2015 bowl game
Franklin @ PSU winless away from home vs ranked opponents.
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