Penn State/Maryland & Clemson/Louisville Parlay Preview Article

[VirginiaCavs]

Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 10 Parlay

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 3:30 pm. ET (FS1) at Maryland Stadium in College Park, Maryland

Must-Fade Spot

After losing straight-up to Ohio State last weekend, Penn State is in a must-fade spot.

Historically, under coach Franklin, Penn State consistently does a poor job of regrouping after a straight-up loss.

Since this tendency forms the entire basis for my play, let's go through the list beginning in 2017.

In 2017, Penn State lost straight-up to Ohio State and then lost straight-up as 10-point favorites to Michigan State.

Next year, the Nittany Lions lost straight-up to the Buckeyes and then lost straight-up as 13.5-point favorites to Michigan State.

Subsequently, they failed to cover the spread at Indiana.

Exceptionally, they did cover the spread against Wisconsin after suffering a massive blowout in Michigan.

In 2019, they failed to cover the spread against Indiana after losing straight-up to Minnesota. Later, they did not come close to covering the spread against Rutgers after their straight-up loss at Ohio State.

Last year, this pattern repeated itself four times until they finally covered the spread against Michigan.

This year, the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread against Illinois after losing to Iowa, although they did cover the spread against the Buckeyes last weekend despite losing to the Illini the week before.

So, in the past four years, Penn State is 3-10 ATS following a straight-up loss.

Sandwich Spot

One may raise doubts because Penn State has covered after losing straight-up. It is rare but not impossible.

However, Penn State is especially unlikely to bounce back this weekend because it finds itself in a classic sandwich spot -- just like it did in its major upset loss to the Illini.

After playing a huge game at Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have to somehow concentrate sufficiently on Maryland. Their ability to concentrate will surely be impeded, though, by their awareness that their next opponent is high-profile Michigan. They will surely be looking past the lowly Terps.

Clemson Tigers vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville

Clemson on the Road

This season, Clemson is winless, 0-3 ATS on the road.

The Tigers were not close to covering the spread in any of the three road games.

First, they lost straight-up as 10.5-point favorites at NC State. Then, they escaped with a 17-14 win at struggling Syracuse.

Most recently, they lost by 10 points as 3.5-point underdogs at Pitt.

One thing that does not quite show up for Clemson on the road is its defense.

Devin Leary, for example, threw a season-high four touchdowns in NC State's upset victory over the Tigers.

Most recently, Kenny Pickett threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns against the Tigers.

This negative tendency of Clemson's pass defense presents great news for Louisville's Malik Cunningham, who forms a uniquely crucial part of the Cardinal offense given both his abilities as a passer and the threat he poses as a runner.

Clemson's defensive weakness is decisive because its offense is broken this season. The Tigers repeatedly have trouble reaching just 20 points.

The Tigers miss weapons at key positions and their offensive line has been struggling from the beginning of the season.

Injuries have further depleted this unit. They have also eroded stability particularly in the interior.

Recently and significantly, for example, All-ACC senior left guard Matt Bockhorst suffered a season-ending knee injury against Pitt.

The Verdict

Penn State and Clemson are both worth fading given the spot each is in: Penn State just lost and is in a sandwich spot; Clemson is on the road.

Best Bet: Terrapins +11 at -110 & Cardinals +4.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada

 

[M.W.]

Devin Leary threw two TD passes in regulation.

 

[M.W.]

There is a big difference between -14.5 and -4.5. And a big difference between Pitt or State and UL. And this is the first week Clemson has had any sort of momentum.

 

[2daBank]

my issue with ville is they so Cunningham dependent for offense, they looked like the better team against ncst last week (as i said they might be), but then Cunningham got banged up and they got killed in the 4th qrtr (and ruined my bet! never would have thought in a million years the spread would be in jeopardy while watching that game unfold!), he couldnt move the same and his passes started sailing on him bad, he is never the most accurate qb but once he was hobbling around on a bum leg his accuracy was awful.. I imagine he will most likely play cause he a gutsy tough ass kid but man, i gotta know he healthy enough to step into throws and im not sure how we will know that until the game starts? maybe be a good game to possibly bet live, if he able to step into throws and be accurate early on take ville, if it obvious he still effected then take clemson, pass, or under.. really dont know what else to do short of us knowing someone who gets to watch practices? lol.

 

[2daBank]

as i been saying i think ville defense was a bit underrated due to all the real explosive offenses they faced this season, last few weeks against lessor offenses they have played pretty well. they absolutely fell apart in the 4th qrtr last week tho, im sure that was a direct result of them being gassed cause cunningham all a sudden couldnt keep the offense on the field. dunno the stats thru 3 qrts but after the 1st drive of the game ncst couldnt do anything until the 4th.. ville d is definitely better than the numbers suggest imo,.

 

[2daBank]

pen state was off a loss coming into the osu game, i wonder if the same thing applies when we talking about 2 losses? my bigger problem in this game isnt the idea of fading psu, it trusting the terps. ever since they lost one their nfl wr's in the iowa game they havnt looked the same, it could be argued it was as much about comp level rising as it was the injury but im not sure, they were starting to move the ball on iowa until he crumbled to the ground on that kick return. . likewise i dunno if they found something last week or it was a result of catching a hoosiers team that was down in the dumps? normally i would be impressed with baby tua throwing for 400+ against a pretty solid hoosiers defense but again i dunno if hoosiers were simply deflated? certainly doesnt bode well for terps defense they allowed a very crappy imdy offense to put up 35 points!!

 

[2daBank]

So who are you doing these for now if you stopped writing for the other place due to the new owners? pretty lame they force you to suggest parlays, not that im opposed to the parlays, god knows i play too many of them, just not something i feel should be suggested to degenerates looking for a play! lol

 

[VirginiaCavs]

So who are you doing these for now if you stopped writing for the other place due to the new owners? pretty lame they force you to suggest parlays, not that im opposed to the parlays, god knows i play too many of them, just not something i feel should be suggested to degenerates looking for a play! lol

It‘s back to normal, I never stopped writing for the old bosses (preview articles), they just relocated basically. I stopped writing for the new bosses (picks articles) since they said we could only write for them or for the old bosses and I chose to continue writing for the ols bosses.

 

[2daBank]

It‘s back to normal, I never stopped writing for the old bosses (preview articles), they just relocated basically. I stopped writing for the new bosses (picks articles) since they said we could only write for them or for the old bosses and I chose to continue writing for the ols bosses.

yea i recall all that which why i was curious.