NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, February 5, 2021 a 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Indiana Offense vs. New Orleans Defense: Three-Pointers
Based on the frequency with which the Pelicans allow open and wide open three-point attempts, it may seem safe to identify perimeter defense as their weakness on defense.
They will allow the opposing team to attempt a lot of three-pointers where the nearest Pelican defender is at least four feet away from the shooter.
Based on three-point percentage, the Pacers have lately been one of the most efficient teams when shooting from deep.
Home court provides an advantage because they have also been at their best, shooting-wise, when playing on the court that is most familiar to them.
Three different higher-minute guys are converting at least 40 percent of their three-point attempts: Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, and Justin Holiday.
Brogdon will create his own shot. He’ll also create for guys like Lamb, a characteristic spot-up shooter, and Holiday, who also likes to come off screens.
Indiana Offense vs. New Orleans Defense: Attacking Inside
But New Orleans’ biggest problem on defense might just be in the interior.
As measured by block rate, the Pelicans offer minimal shot-blocking presence.
Indiana matches up well with the Pelican defense because New Orleans does so little to deter opponents who want to attack the rim.
While the Pacers attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket, the Pelicans allow the second-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
In terms of efficiency, Indiana is also considerably effective at attacking the basket.
After all, attacking the basket has been a focal point of Indiana’s offense under its new head coach as guys like Doug McDermott are being turned from shooters into guys who ably finish over defenders.
Power forward Domantas Sabonis, who is second on the team with 21.6 points, is a top candidate to finesse or bully his way to the basket.
But Indiana is pretty loaded with guys like Justin Holiday who aren’t bigs but ably attack the rim.
New Orleans Offense vs. Indiana Defense
One characteristic of Indiana’s defense is its lack of physicality. In terms of big men, the Pacers also lack depth which would give them needed help in terms of throwing fresh bodies into the game.
When the Pacers recently lost to Philadelphia, for example, center Dwight Howard proved to be a menace by accruing 15 rebounds. Lack of physicality was also obvious in last season’s playoff loss to Miami.
While Indiana’s vulnerability on the glass is reflected in its high rate of opposing offensive rebounds, the Pelicans rank among the top offensive rebounding teams.
With physical freak Zion and rebounding machine Steven Adams, the Pelicans are notoriously physical in the frontcourt. They will bully Indiana inside.
Physicality is important for the Pelicans because they do not want to shoot threes. So their offense will do what it wants to do by utilizing its physical advantage inside.
Trends
Current team form suggests that this game will go “over."
New Orleans is enjoying an 8-1 “over” run. Meanwhile, the “over” has hit in Indiana’s past three games.
Detroit Pistons vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday, January 5, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Phoenix’s Tendency
One may want to avoid betting on the Pistons because, at 5-16, they unequivocally count as a bad team.
But this is actually a great reason to bet on them tonight. When deciding whether to bet on a Suns game, you should look for bad opponents.
Phoenix constantly plays down to the level of its opponent.
Against lowly Washington, for example, the Suns lost 128-07.
Trends
The Suns have been favored by at least six points in two different games.
In addition to losing to Washington, they lost to these same Pistons.
So the Suns are 0-2 SU and ATS when favored by at least six points.
Moreover, Detroit has a remarkably positive history against the Suns, producing ongoing eight-game cover and win streaks against them.
Match-Up Details
Phoenix wants to control a game’s place by slowing things down offensively. In order to maintain rhythm, the Suns want to avoid turning the ball over.
But the Pistons are great at forcing turnovers — they accrue the fifth-highest turnover rate.
When these two teams met, the Suns turned it over 21 times as they could never solve the zone defense that Detroit switched to after Phoenix actually enjoyed a hot start to the game.
With the departure of Kelly Oubre and the reduced offensive efficiency of Devin Booker in the team’s new slower-paced offense, Phoenix lacks the same personnel quality with which to attack the rim and draw fouls.
Instead, the Suns become too dependent on their long-range shooting. This dependency can hurt them as they are 1-6 SU when they shoot below 34 percent from deep.
They match up well against teams like Dallas that allow a high rate of open threes, but statistics show that Detroit is not one of these teams.
Parlay Verdict
New Orleans —with its physicality inside — and Indiana — given the Pelicans’ vulnerabilities from deep and in front of the basket — will both do what they want to do offensively.
Trends support an “over” play between the Pacers and Pelicans as well as a play on the Pistons tonight.
True to form, the Suns will play down to Detroit’s level. Turnovers and unfortunate dependence on three-point shooting will cost the Suns.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers/Pelicans over 226 at -120 & Pistons +8 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, February 5, 2021 a 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Indiana Offense vs. New Orleans Defense: Three-Pointers
Based on the frequency with which the Pelicans allow open and wide open three-point attempts, it may seem safe to identify perimeter defense as their weakness on defense.
They will allow the opposing team to attempt a lot of three-pointers where the nearest Pelican defender is at least four feet away from the shooter.
Based on three-point percentage, the Pacers have lately been one of the most efficient teams when shooting from deep.
Home court provides an advantage because they have also been at their best, shooting-wise, when playing on the court that is most familiar to them.
Three different higher-minute guys are converting at least 40 percent of their three-point attempts: Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, and Justin Holiday.
Brogdon will create his own shot. He’ll also create for guys like Lamb, a characteristic spot-up shooter, and Holiday, who also likes to come off screens.
Indiana Offense vs. New Orleans Defense: Attacking Inside
But New Orleans’ biggest problem on defense might just be in the interior.
As measured by block rate, the Pelicans offer minimal shot-blocking presence.
Indiana matches up well with the Pelican defense because New Orleans does so little to deter opponents who want to attack the rim.
While the Pacers attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket, the Pelicans allow the second-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
In terms of efficiency, Indiana is also considerably effective at attacking the basket.
After all, attacking the basket has been a focal point of Indiana’s offense under its new head coach as guys like Doug McDermott are being turned from shooters into guys who ably finish over defenders.
Power forward Domantas Sabonis, who is second on the team with 21.6 points, is a top candidate to finesse or bully his way to the basket.
But Indiana is pretty loaded with guys like Justin Holiday who aren’t bigs but ably attack the rim.
New Orleans Offense vs. Indiana Defense
One characteristic of Indiana’s defense is its lack of physicality. In terms of big men, the Pacers also lack depth which would give them needed help in terms of throwing fresh bodies into the game.
When the Pacers recently lost to Philadelphia, for example, center Dwight Howard proved to be a menace by accruing 15 rebounds. Lack of physicality was also obvious in last season’s playoff loss to Miami.
While Indiana’s vulnerability on the glass is reflected in its high rate of opposing offensive rebounds, the Pelicans rank among the top offensive rebounding teams.
With physical freak Zion and rebounding machine Steven Adams, the Pelicans are notoriously physical in the frontcourt. They will bully Indiana inside.
Physicality is important for the Pelicans because they do not want to shoot threes. So their offense will do what it wants to do by utilizing its physical advantage inside.
Trends
Current team form suggests that this game will go “over."
New Orleans is enjoying an 8-1 “over” run. Meanwhile, the “over” has hit in Indiana’s past three games.
Detroit Pistons vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday, January 5, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Phoenix’s Tendency
One may want to avoid betting on the Pistons because, at 5-16, they unequivocally count as a bad team.
But this is actually a great reason to bet on them tonight. When deciding whether to bet on a Suns game, you should look for bad opponents.
Phoenix constantly plays down to the level of its opponent.
Against lowly Washington, for example, the Suns lost 128-07.
Trends
The Suns have been favored by at least six points in two different games.
In addition to losing to Washington, they lost to these same Pistons.
So the Suns are 0-2 SU and ATS when favored by at least six points.
Moreover, Detroit has a remarkably positive history against the Suns, producing ongoing eight-game cover and win streaks against them.
Match-Up Details
Phoenix wants to control a game’s place by slowing things down offensively. In order to maintain rhythm, the Suns want to avoid turning the ball over.
But the Pistons are great at forcing turnovers — they accrue the fifth-highest turnover rate.
When these two teams met, the Suns turned it over 21 times as they could never solve the zone defense that Detroit switched to after Phoenix actually enjoyed a hot start to the game.
With the departure of Kelly Oubre and the reduced offensive efficiency of Devin Booker in the team’s new slower-paced offense, Phoenix lacks the same personnel quality with which to attack the rim and draw fouls.
Instead, the Suns become too dependent on their long-range shooting. This dependency can hurt them as they are 1-6 SU when they shoot below 34 percent from deep.
They match up well against teams like Dallas that allow a high rate of open threes, but statistics show that Detroit is not one of these teams.
Parlay Verdict
New Orleans —with its physicality inside — and Indiana — given the Pelicans’ vulnerabilities from deep and in front of the basket — will both do what they want to do offensively.
Trends support an “over” play between the Pacers and Pelicans as well as a play on the Pistons tonight.
True to form, the Suns will play down to Detroit’s level. Turnovers and unfortunate dependence on three-point shooting will cost the Suns.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers/Pelicans over 226 at -120 & Pistons +8 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
