Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Patriots vs. Jets
New England Patriots vs. New England Jets
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Jamison Crowder
Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
At Least 6 Receptions
Consistency
Jamison Crowder is New York’s most valuable wide receiver.
With relatively few pass-catching options and with the 0-8 Jets often behind in games, Crowder is always sure to get a lot of attention from his quarterback.
Defenses must be aware of Crowder’s emphatic role by now. But it doesn’t seem to matter.
Crowder has played in four games this season. In every game, he’s caught at least seven passes and has been targeted at least 10 times.
You can eat up a bit more chalk and take Crowder over 4.5 receptions. I prefer to stick to the trend and expect him to accrue at least six catches.
He eclipsed 100 receiving yards in three of his four games. In the one exception, he accrued 48 receiving yards at Miami.
Staying Upright
New York’s offense was shut out by the Dolphins in what was a uniquely low low point for Adam Gase’s offense.
A unique problem was pass protection. The Jets necessarily became a pass-first team.
But quarterback Joe Flacco faced relentless pressure. In that game, the Dolphins accrued 10 quarterback hits and three sacks.
New England, though, ranks 10 spots behind the Dolphins in adjusted sack rate. So Flacco will have more opportunities by staying upright more often.
Cornerbacks
One extra piece of good news for Crowder is that he won’t have to deal with cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
New England’s top coverage guy has been ruled ‘out.’
Gilmore admittedly does not prefer to man the slot, where Crowder prefers to line up. But his absence rules him out completely from doing so.
Instead, Jonathan Jones will focus on Crowder. Jones is an easier cover opponent than Miami’s Nik Needham as their clear disparity in metrics like opposing passer rating when targeted shows.
Jones is consistently vulnerable. In his past two games, he’s stayed on San Francisco’s’ Kendrick Bourne and Buffalo’s Cole Beasley. He’s seen seven targets in those two games and has allowed seven receptions.
Neither wide receiver is regularly targeted much. So Crowder, in being targeted heavily, will magnify Jones’ problems with opposing catch rate.
Best Bet: Crowder Over 49.5 Receiving Yards at -114 with Bovada + Crowder At Least 6 Receptions at -110 with Bovada
Damiere Byrd
Over/Under 42 Receiving Yards
Snaps
Patriot wide receiver Damiere Byrd certainly benefits from the absence of fellow pass-catcher N’Keal Harry, who has been ruled ‘out’ for this game.
He also benefits from the fact that the Jets own the NFL’s second-worst pass defense in terms of DVOA, which is a metric that adjusts for quality of opponent.
Byrd takes the fourth-highest rate of snaps in the NFL. He’ll continue to be on the field for at least 97 percent of his team’s snaps as the Patriots look to exploit a uniquely horrible pass defense.
Match-Up
One may want to stay away from Patriot wide receivers because one lacks trust in the passing ability of quarterback Cam Newton.
But oddsmakers really aren’t asking for much.
They are also underrating Cam because they are not accounting for the uptick in RPO plays that the Patriots are performing.
This uptick in RPO plays signifies an attempt to make Cam more comfortable as a passer.
Byrd, too, is an obvious candidate to help Newton be more comfortable because he was already Newton’s teammate in Carolina.
He’s great at getting open quickly, using his speed to do so. He owns the NFL’s 20th-best average distance of separation from the nearest opposing defensive back.
RPO plays will work great against a Jet defense that is aggressive — the Jets execute blitzes at the 10th-highest rate — and that plays a lot of zone defense.
With zone defense, defenders are forced to leave their assigned area in order to guard against the possibility of a run. With blitzes, too, defenders leave coverage spaces in order to attack the opposing quarterback.
So Cam will flex the possibility that he hands the ball off in order to create scenarios where wide receivers are open.
He will have no trouble finding Byrd.
Best Bet: Byrd Over 42 Receiving Yards at -114 with Bovada
New England Patriots vs. New England Jets
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Jamison Crowder
Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
At Least 6 Receptions
Consistency
Jamison Crowder is New York’s most valuable wide receiver.
With relatively few pass-catching options and with the 0-8 Jets often behind in games, Crowder is always sure to get a lot of attention from his quarterback.
Defenses must be aware of Crowder’s emphatic role by now. But it doesn’t seem to matter.
Crowder has played in four games this season. In every game, he’s caught at least seven passes and has been targeted at least 10 times.
You can eat up a bit more chalk and take Crowder over 4.5 receptions. I prefer to stick to the trend and expect him to accrue at least six catches.
He eclipsed 100 receiving yards in three of his four games. In the one exception, he accrued 48 receiving yards at Miami.
Staying Upright
New York’s offense was shut out by the Dolphins in what was a uniquely low low point for Adam Gase’s offense.
A unique problem was pass protection. The Jets necessarily became a pass-first team.
But quarterback Joe Flacco faced relentless pressure. In that game, the Dolphins accrued 10 quarterback hits and three sacks.
New England, though, ranks 10 spots behind the Dolphins in adjusted sack rate. So Flacco will have more opportunities by staying upright more often.
Cornerbacks
One extra piece of good news for Crowder is that he won’t have to deal with cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
New England’s top coverage guy has been ruled ‘out.’
Gilmore admittedly does not prefer to man the slot, where Crowder prefers to line up. But his absence rules him out completely from doing so.
Instead, Jonathan Jones will focus on Crowder. Jones is an easier cover opponent than Miami’s Nik Needham as their clear disparity in metrics like opposing passer rating when targeted shows.
Jones is consistently vulnerable. In his past two games, he’s stayed on San Francisco’s’ Kendrick Bourne and Buffalo’s Cole Beasley. He’s seen seven targets in those two games and has allowed seven receptions.
Neither wide receiver is regularly targeted much. So Crowder, in being targeted heavily, will magnify Jones’ problems with opposing catch rate.
Best Bet: Crowder Over 49.5 Receiving Yards at -114 with Bovada + Crowder At Least 6 Receptions at -110 with Bovada
Damiere Byrd
Over/Under 42 Receiving Yards
Snaps
Patriot wide receiver Damiere Byrd certainly benefits from the absence of fellow pass-catcher N’Keal Harry, who has been ruled ‘out’ for this game.
He also benefits from the fact that the Jets own the NFL’s second-worst pass defense in terms of DVOA, which is a metric that adjusts for quality of opponent.
Byrd takes the fourth-highest rate of snaps in the NFL. He’ll continue to be on the field for at least 97 percent of his team’s snaps as the Patriots look to exploit a uniquely horrible pass defense.
Match-Up
One may want to stay away from Patriot wide receivers because one lacks trust in the passing ability of quarterback Cam Newton.
But oddsmakers really aren’t asking for much.
They are also underrating Cam because they are not accounting for the uptick in RPO plays that the Patriots are performing.
This uptick in RPO plays signifies an attempt to make Cam more comfortable as a passer.
Byrd, too, is an obvious candidate to help Newton be more comfortable because he was already Newton’s teammate in Carolina.
He’s great at getting open quickly, using his speed to do so. He owns the NFL’s 20th-best average distance of separation from the nearest opposing defensive back.
RPO plays will work great against a Jet defense that is aggressive — the Jets execute blitzes at the 10th-highest rate — and that plays a lot of zone defense.
With zone defense, defenders are forced to leave their assigned area in order to guard against the possibility of a run. With blitzes, too, defenders leave coverage spaces in order to attack the opposing quarterback.
So Cam will flex the possibility that he hands the ball off in order to create scenarios where wide receivers are open.
He will have no trouble finding Byrd.
Best Bet: Byrd Over 42 Receiving Yards at -114 with Bovada
