Patriots vs. Chiefs: NFL Best Bets
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 5, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer has been announced as tonight’s starting quarterback for New England in place of Cam Newton.
As a result of this change, the Chiefs moved from being favored by seven points to being favored by 11. That is a large move. Is it justified?
If you compare Hoyer’s passing numbers last year, where he played in four games with Indianapolis, with Newton’s last year and this year, it becomes apparent that Newton is the stronger passer.
As a passer, Hoyer often displays poor accuracy and poor decision-making. which is why he barely completed over half his passes and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns last year.
Hoyer also lacks the arm power that Newton possesses, which can help keep defenses honest downfield.
The thing about Hoyer is, though, that passing is all he can do. He is not a threat to run the ball.
The Importance of New England’s Injuries On Offense
Cam Newton’s abilities as a runner have exercised a huge influence on New England’s offensive style this year.
You can see an example of a typical Newton play in the beginning of the following video:
Notice the position of Miami’s defensive end as he waits for Newton to decide whether to hand the ball off or run.
The key word here is „wait.“ In making this decision, Newton freezes the opposing defender, who has to account for the possibility that Newton hands the ball off.
With this unpredictability, Newton ultimately does a good enough job taking him out of the play and there is enough of a hole for him to attack and run for a nice gun.
The point is that Newton makes New England’s rush attack more dynamic because he forces opposing defenders to react instead of allowing them to attack.
We can also evaluate Newton’s significance from a pure numbers perspective.
He leads the team with 35 rush attempts and is second in rushing yards.
So without Newton, New England loses a significant part of its offense.
It gets worse for the Patriots: their current leader in rushing yards, Sony Michel, is injured. He’s listed as ‚questionable.'
As the only running back on the team who averages over 4.4 YPC — he averages 6.7 — his ability to play is meaningful.
Michel stands out from his fellow Patriot running backs because of his ability between the tackles. Other guys like Rex Burkhead do not have the power and strength to run through contact. They are much easier to bring down.
Why Newton’s Loss Is Critical Match-Up-Wise
Having Newton — that decisive boost to its ground game — would have been huge for New England given this match-up.
According to FootballOutsider’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics, Kansas City’s defense ranks 30th against the run and fifth against the pass.
So, while oddsmakers have accounted for Hoyer’s objectively lessened abilities by favoring the Chiefs by four extra points, they do not account for the Chiefs’ additional match-up advantage.
Without Newton — and perhaps without Michel — New England is less able to exploit the Chiefs’ defensive weakness and is instead coerced to confront its defensive strength.
Kansas City Secondary
Having Charvarius Ward back — he’s a full participant at practice again — bolsters Kansas City’s cornerback group. Last year, he ranked 16th among qualified cornerbacks in terms of opposing passer rating.
Tyrann Mathieu is enjoying a strong season. He’s allowing a 46.2 completion percentage and 55.3 passer rating when targeted.
They are helped by a pass rush that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate.
With Newton out of the equation, they’ll be attacking a sitting duck in Hoyer.
Chiefs Pass Attack vs. Patriots Secondary
New England, which ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate, cannot bring the quality of pressure that Kansas City does.
This lessened pressure — at least in part a product of key playmakers like Dont’a Hightower, who accrued 5.5 sacks last season, sitting out — creates a double-edged sword.
Do the Patriots just sit back and let superstar Patrick Mahomes find one of sundry top-caliber targets? This sounds like a bad choice because Mahomes will find somebody.
But do the Patriots bring pressure, and likely fail? This also sounds like a bad choice.
When Baltimore blitzed Mahomes, it hardly generated pressure, thus allowing Mahomes to throw for 191 yards and three touchdowns on 15 of 19 pass attempts when he was blitzed.
While the Patriots’ secondary is well-respected after last season, its lessened pass rush partly explains why the team ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Of course, contending with Russell Wilson and that Seahawk offense will hurt any team’s pass defense numbers. But why should one expect any less from Mahomes?
Especially consider that New England’s dud of a quarterback will struggle to sustain drives and thus keep the Patriots’ defense from resting sufficiently.
The Verdict
In Newton, New England loses an important piece as measured by quality and by match-up significance.
The Patriots won’t take advantage of Kansas City’s defensive weakness. Instead, they’ll succumb to the Chiefs’ defensive strengths, which are pass rush and pass defense.
For KC, Mahomes will see plenty of action. He’ll be comfortable against New England’s regressed pass rush and he’ll pick the Patriots’ secondary apart with his notorious variety of pass-catching weapons at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
Best Bet: Chiefs -10.5 (-105) with BetOnline
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 5, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer has been announced as tonight’s starting quarterback for New England in place of Cam Newton.
As a result of this change, the Chiefs moved from being favored by seven points to being favored by 11. That is a large move. Is it justified?
If you compare Hoyer’s passing numbers last year, where he played in four games with Indianapolis, with Newton’s last year and this year, it becomes apparent that Newton is the stronger passer.
As a passer, Hoyer often displays poor accuracy and poor decision-making. which is why he barely completed over half his passes and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns last year.
Hoyer also lacks the arm power that Newton possesses, which can help keep defenses honest downfield.
The thing about Hoyer is, though, that passing is all he can do. He is not a threat to run the ball.
The Importance of New England’s Injuries On Offense
Cam Newton’s abilities as a runner have exercised a huge influence on New England’s offensive style this year.
You can see an example of a typical Newton play in the beginning of the following video:
Notice the position of Miami’s defensive end as he waits for Newton to decide whether to hand the ball off or run.
The key word here is „wait.“ In making this decision, Newton freezes the opposing defender, who has to account for the possibility that Newton hands the ball off.
With this unpredictability, Newton ultimately does a good enough job taking him out of the play and there is enough of a hole for him to attack and run for a nice gun.
The point is that Newton makes New England’s rush attack more dynamic because he forces opposing defenders to react instead of allowing them to attack.
We can also evaluate Newton’s significance from a pure numbers perspective.
He leads the team with 35 rush attempts and is second in rushing yards.
So without Newton, New England loses a significant part of its offense.
It gets worse for the Patriots: their current leader in rushing yards, Sony Michel, is injured. He’s listed as ‚questionable.'
As the only running back on the team who averages over 4.4 YPC — he averages 6.7 — his ability to play is meaningful.
Michel stands out from his fellow Patriot running backs because of his ability between the tackles. Other guys like Rex Burkhead do not have the power and strength to run through contact. They are much easier to bring down.
Why Newton’s Loss Is Critical Match-Up-Wise
Having Newton — that decisive boost to its ground game — would have been huge for New England given this match-up.
According to FootballOutsider’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics, Kansas City’s defense ranks 30th against the run and fifth against the pass.
So, while oddsmakers have accounted for Hoyer’s objectively lessened abilities by favoring the Chiefs by four extra points, they do not account for the Chiefs’ additional match-up advantage.
Without Newton — and perhaps without Michel — New England is less able to exploit the Chiefs’ defensive weakness and is instead coerced to confront its defensive strength.
Kansas City Secondary
Having Charvarius Ward back — he’s a full participant at practice again — bolsters Kansas City’s cornerback group. Last year, he ranked 16th among qualified cornerbacks in terms of opposing passer rating.
Tyrann Mathieu is enjoying a strong season. He’s allowing a 46.2 completion percentage and 55.3 passer rating when targeted.
They are helped by a pass rush that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate.
With Newton out of the equation, they’ll be attacking a sitting duck in Hoyer.
Chiefs Pass Attack vs. Patriots Secondary
New England, which ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate, cannot bring the quality of pressure that Kansas City does.
This lessened pressure — at least in part a product of key playmakers like Dont’a Hightower, who accrued 5.5 sacks last season, sitting out — creates a double-edged sword.
Do the Patriots just sit back and let superstar Patrick Mahomes find one of sundry top-caliber targets? This sounds like a bad choice because Mahomes will find somebody.
But do the Patriots bring pressure, and likely fail? This also sounds like a bad choice.
When Baltimore blitzed Mahomes, it hardly generated pressure, thus allowing Mahomes to throw for 191 yards and three touchdowns on 15 of 19 pass attempts when he was blitzed.
While the Patriots’ secondary is well-respected after last season, its lessened pass rush partly explains why the team ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Of course, contending with Russell Wilson and that Seahawk offense will hurt any team’s pass defense numbers. But why should one expect any less from Mahomes?
Especially consider that New England’s dud of a quarterback will struggle to sustain drives and thus keep the Patriots’ defense from resting sufficiently.
The Verdict
In Newton, New England loses an important piece as measured by quality and by match-up significance.
The Patriots won’t take advantage of Kansas City’s defensive weakness. Instead, they’ll succumb to the Chiefs’ defensive strengths, which are pass rush and pass defense.
For KC, Mahomes will see plenty of action. He’ll be comfortable against New England’s regressed pass rush and he’ll pick the Patriots’ secondary apart with his notorious variety of pass-catching weapons at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
Best Bet: Chiefs -10.5 (-105) with BetOnline
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