Part III December 29th - January 1st

BenchCoach

BenchCoach

Pretty much a regular
Part I...6-9...-$195
Part II...21-8...+$7,777

back in a bit with early action for Part III...This last part to the bowl season I have found to be the most difficult. You have the best teams playing each other now, more games per day in a short stretch to cap, and this year I have the last Sunday of the NFL season to cap thrown into the middle of it all...there are some good matchups and I have worked ahead this year to have a good blue print to the next 4 days set up in advance...all plays will be one unit unless otherwise stated, 1 unit = $500
 
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12/29

Florida/Michigan 1st Half Under 24½ -110
Florida/Michigan 1st Quarter Under 10½ -115

I lean Florida here but only because they are getting 6. Really feel this game could go either way. I will elect to watch the first half and see if there is a 2nd half oppurtunity. Both teams will try to establish the run early. Both teams have dominate type defenses. I do think these teams can score but the possessesions in the 1st half will be limited. Barring special team/defensive scores this should come in under the number in the 1st half. This is the type of game where you will see a special teams/defensive/safety type score. I feel the number should have been 21 or 20.5. Should be a great physical game...back in a bit with other match ups
 
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Notre Dame/Clemson 1st Half Under 28½ -105 (2*)
Notre Dame Under 23 -110

Posted this one first because I have more action going in this game than any other today. Clemson defense should completely shut down the ND run game. I could see Notre Dame gaining some yardage but I have a hard time seeing big plays or sustaining consistent drives leading to anything other than field goals. 12 is a lot of points to cover in a defensive match up (which is what I see) which is why I went the the ND team total under. Clemson could possibly blow Notre Dame out, we all know that. If ND can muster enough offense to really compete vs this type of defense I will tip my hat. I see both teams being conservative early in a game of this magnitude. If Notre Dame defense can hold their own I think you will see them run the ball/clock and try and make it to halftime within a respectable number. Counting on Notre Dame's defense a bit here???...adding to Michigan game here in a minute
 
Florida/Michigan 1st Quarter Under 10½ -115

this play is for only a nickel or one unit...I edited post #2 and simply added this play to the 1st half
 
12/29...con

South Carolina -3½ -105 (1/2*)

Taking Cocks here. Very solid Bowl record from the better conference. I have Virginia with slightly better defensive numbers but based on strength of schedule I'm not sure it matters. I think the Cocks score a good bit here and will have better athletes on both sides of the ball. I see Virginia as a bit beat up physically and haven't finished the season as strong as they started. Losing to Va Tech in OT put a major damper on their season...just a half unit for now, may add to it at half time.
 
12/29...con

Arkansas State +103 ($100)

played every other bowl game so why not this one for a buck. All I have heard about is these teams scoring a bunch of points, my numbers actually point to the under. Going with Ark St on account of they have a better defensive efficiency number which is a key stat in all bowl games I cap.
 
4 Team Parlay...+137
Pending12/29/18 8:00pm College Football 254 Alabama -550* vs Oklahoma
Pending12/29/18 4:00pm College Football 256 Clemson -400* vs Notre Dame
Pending12/31/18 7:30pm College Football 268 Texas A&M -275* vs NC State
Pending1/5/19 12:00pm College Football 802 North Dakota State -570* vs Eastern Washington
 
Bama -14 -104 (1/2*)

Still looking at a possible play on the under in This game, won’t be a big play...if I play anything else it will be live in play or halftime
 
This q.b on arky might be the worst qb I’ve seen. Can’t read a play at all as it develops
 
Obviously the right side in ark st game, worst bowl game I have seen thus far. Just bad by both teams in all aspects...moving on
 
No play 2H on Clemson...probly would of been if they didn’t score on that last drive...based in the line they’re giving I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson beats the brakes off em won’t make it a big play but my numbers (which have been pretty accurate lately) say that Bama will dominate tonight and the game will go under...that’s it for today unless there is a half time play in the bama game
 
You like Bama and the under, any reason not to take OK TT UN33.5 instead?

been a long time lurker, want to thank you for all your posts!
 
anzhu said:
You like Bama and the under, any reason not to take OK TT UN33.5 instead?

been a long time lurker, want to thank you for all your posts!
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t call you crazy for playing it but I feel the huge number of 81 covers me in case I am wrong a bit. These semi finals games and the short turn around to the final makes me think teams will get conservative and try nd get the semi game over with
 
BenchCoach said:
I wouldn’t call you crazy for playing it but I feel the huge number of 81 covers me in case I am wrong a bit. These semi finals games and the short turn around to the final makes me think teams will get conservative and try nd get the semi game over with
Click to expand...

appreciate the quick reply
 
Going into the Bama game 6-3, +$2,602...solid day regardless of the outcome in the late game...that Ark St 2H is still stickin in my craw a bit...picked up a dime in soccer this morning (hit a couple of those big dogs in the EPL), still have a total in the Frisco/UCSB hoops matchup late tonight for a couple of nickels...getting to work on tomorrow's NFL card and watching to see if we can grab a decent total in the 2nd half of this bama game...back in a bit
 
Oklahoma/Alabama 2nd Half Under 38½ -110

That last drive you saw Bama on is a taste of what we should see in the 2nd half...ground and pound...we just need Bama D to keep the Sooners Off in check to some degree
 
Overall...35-21...+$10,924 (21.84 units)
Part I...6-9...-$195
Part II...21-8...+$7,777
Part III...8-4...+$3,342

12/29...8-4...+$3,342
12/31...
1/1...
 
consilience said:
Continued success BC... any feel for the totals? Definitely expected a patented BC 2* 1st half under in the Cincinnati game.
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looking into that one...if I play the under in that one I don't think it will be 2*...I typically dont put totals in until gameday or even closer to kickoff, usually can get a better number with last minute over bets flooding the market in these bigger games. I posted the side plays on account they are favorites and most likely going to be public favorites throughout the morning today. Line should move in these games I have already put it, if it moves the wrong way we might be in trouble. My numbers have Mizzo as a vastly superior team than the Cowboys. Should look similar to Bama/Oklahoma on a much less talented scale. Probly will add to this Mizzo play with a few different wagers, tt's/halfs/quarters those type wagers...still have some other games I need to continue to research...back in a bit.
 
12/31...con

Michigan St +2 -105 ($210-$200)

buying out of some of the Oregon play while I can. This one just rubs me the wrong way. After looking at some #'s really feel its more of a coin toss going into it. I have an idea of what I will be looking for early on in this game and if I see what I think I will I may play more live.
 
12/31...con

Virginia Tech +6 3/4 -113

used a bit of an Asian line here (thats half the wager at +6.5 & half the wager at +7). All the defensive #'s and statistical info I use point to Cincy in this one. Cincy has also put more than a few pennies in the BC slush vacation/quality alcohol fund this year. As much as I love their style of play and respect there coach I have to go against em here. Starters its too many points. The Bearcat schedule is weak. Other than getting handled by UCF their best win that I see Ohio. OHIO?????Nothing the Cats bring on the field will be something Tech hasn't seen almost every week they have strapped it on. I think Tech finished strong and they have the type of program who tends to show up when people question their motivation...Think we see a great effort from both sides today...worst case your looking at tech with a chance to slide in the back door in the last few minutes. no real opinion on the total, I could see it going a few different directions. Virginia Tech has proven to be unpredictable in bowl games as far as what they will implement and adjustments they will make.
 
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Raining hard in the Memphis area FYI. Looks like it should move out by kickoff but that could change. Just something you may want to keep an eye out for. GL.
 
Michigan State/Oregon Over 46 -105 (2*)
Missouri/Oklahoma State Over 71½ -105 (2*)
Pittsburgh U +4 -105

Over in Liberalville USA...I don't think the Ducks can stop Michigan State from running the ball, if they do it will be early but eventually Spartans will impose their will on em. Michigan St is light years ahead of Oregon defensively but speed could play a factor at time and I think Oregon one way or another will get their fare share of points...

Mizzo game and total...Really like Mizzo here, most underated team in the country by my numbers. #3 toughest SOS vs OKST #50 SOS. I have Mizzo #23 is defensive efficiency vs OKST #101...OKST last 5 games they have averaged giving up 41 points per game, even the median number I use which is always lower and was still 38. Mizzo will should get to 40+ just for remembering to wake up and get on the bus to the field this afternoon. Taking the over is a bit of a hedge in this game. If Mizzo doesn't cover this game goes over easily. If Mizzo covers the game still very well could go over which is what I am putting a good bit of faith in. I made these larger wagers because I feel there is a very low percentage chance the both lose. In other words much higher odds they both win than they both lose.

Pitt...better conference getting points = yes please...should be a great game...also have one of the guys I follow pretty close on this one as well
 
SIGO said:
Raining hard in the Memphis area FYI. Looks like it should move out by kickoff but that could change. Just something you may want to keep an eye out for. GL.
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thank you...always appreciate local weather reports from men in the neighborhood...gl today with your action
 
Write now I am leaning Northwestern and under but going to wait a bit before I make anything official in that game...I did post one soccer (Israel Div2 pro league) play today and one NCAA hoops play
 
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Virginia Tech/Cincinnati U Over 50 -102 (1/2*)
Virginia Tech/Cincinnati U 1st Half Over 25½ -105 (1/2*)

bad weather driving the total down too far before kickoff. Should be light rain worst case and its possible it holds off at kickoff for the game. Both these teams already run the hell out of the ball or at least try too a good bit so I don't think the play calling will be affected by the weather as much as some might think...half units here
 
BenchCoach said:
Notre Dame/Clemson 1st Half Under 28½ -105 (2*)
Notre Dame Under 23 -110

Posted this one first because I have more action going in this game than any other today. Clemson defense should completely shut down the ND run game. I could see Notre Dame gaining some yardage but I have a hard time seeing big plays or sustaining consistent drives leading to anything other than field goals. 12 is a lot of points to cover in a defensive match up (which is what I see) which is why I went the the ND team total under. Clemson could possibly blow Notre Dame out, we all know that. If ND can muster enough offense to really compete vs this type of defense I will tip my hat. I see both teams being conservative early in a game of this magnitude. If Notre Dame defense can hold their own I think you will see them run the ball/clock and try and make it to halftime within a respectable number. Counting on Notre Dame's defense a bit here???...adding to Michigan game here in a minute
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Nice analysis.
 
Pittsburgh U/Stanford 1st Half Under 27 -120 (1/2*)
Pittsburgh U/Stanford 1st Quarter Under 10½ -120 (1/2*)

This is real simple...two well coached teams, two very conservative play callers, two teams who want to establish the run with authority. Both teams have had plenty of time to plan and make adjustments to a line em up smash mouth type offense. A game like this is a matter of lining up and physically imposing your will on the man across the line of scrimmage from yourself....both of these teams defense have seen better days but I think the extra time off and the simplistic play calling by their opponent on both sides will allow them to play a bit over their head...all this said it should lead to fewer possessions and conservative play calls = unda early...definitely my kinda game to watch...really looking forward to a few of these games today (Pitt/Tree, Spartan/Duck, Wildcat/Utah, Wolfpack/Dirtbags). All these games have one if not both teams who apply a tough physical presence to the game
 
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