Pappy's Picks - Week 11 CFB - YTD 96-71-3 (58%)

[PappyOSU]

Week 11 CFB plays will be released tonight at some point. I'm about 70% through my work and the baby is about to go down for a nap, which I'm never upset about. LOL. As reminder I'm in the pacific time zone but will do my best to get it done asap for you east coasters.

FYI its not looking like there will be a Friday night system play unless some major steam comes in somewhere. Data so far has been pretty much a wash and not a ton of interest either so far from my source pool. That being said BOL to all who have bets out there tonight. Hope you crush it.

Week 10 CFB Recap: 11-8 +4.5 units.

Pick	Source Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units	Result	Net
New Mexico +14.5	14	62	3	L	-3
Tulsa +7	13	55	2.5	L	-2.5
Baylor +3.5	10	52	2.5	W	2.5
Army/Air Force Under 40.5	8	NA	2.5	W	2.5
Navy +18.5	12	48	2	W	2
Memphis +3.5	10	46	2	W	2
Texas-2.5	14	42	2	W	2
UAB +1	13	40	2	L	-2
Boise St -7.5	11	40	2	L	-2
Florida St -7.5	9	37	1.5	W	1.5
Iowa +3.5	10	32	1.5	W	1.5
Notre Dame +4	14	29	1	W	1
James Madison +7	13	25	1	L	-1
Texas Tech +8.5	9	25	1	L	-1
Marshall -3.5	7	20	1	W	1
Southern Miss -2.5	9	19	0.5	L	-0.5
Charlotte +15.5	6	19	0.5	L	-0.5
SMU -3	7	18	0.5	W	0.5
Ohio St/Northwestern Under 55	4	NA	0.5	W	0.5

Yes it sucks having the top two plays take L's. Parlay crusher for many who follow that like to dabble with those. So I apologize there. We will take the profitable weekend and move on but I acknowledge there is still a lot of work to do. The picks at the top of the board have to get better. Period.

Here is a recap of the composite system YTD record splits heading into this weekend. System as a whole is currently at 60% win rate after 280 total NFL/CFB bets. CFB slightly below, NFL slightly above. As you can see this is a high volume betting system which no doubt can be debated on sustainability long term... but after continued success and improvements over the years, to be sitting above 60% at this point is something I'm proud of. It's not real until we reach the finish line though, so staying focused and LFG.

Ill include NFL here as well to make it a little easier for me.. lol

	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	69.5	164	108	8	60.29%
CFB Spread Record	15.5	88	67	3	56.77%
CFB Totals Record	4	8	4	0	66.67%
NFL Spread Record	44.5	53	30	4	63.86%
NFL Totals Record	5.5	15	7	1	68.18%
	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	69.5	164	108	8	60.29%
CFB Week 0	1.5	3	0	0	100.00%
CFB Week 1	3	12	4	0	75.00%
CFB Week 2	2.5	10	6	1	62.50%
CFB Week 3	3	9	7	0	56.25%
CFB Week 4	9	10	7	0	58.82%
CFB Week 5	-5.5	10	11	1	47.62%
CFB Week 6	-8	7	9	0	43.75%
CFB Week 7	5.5	9	5	1	64.29%
CFB Week 8	5.5	9	3	0	75.00%
CFB Week 9	-1.5	6	11	0	35.29%
CFB Week 10	4.5	11	8	0	57.89%
NFL Week 1	11.5	11	3	0	78.57%
NFL Week 2	5.5	8	4	1	66.67%
NFL Week 3	14.5	10	2	2	83.33%
NFL Week 4	7.5	9	5	0	64.29%
NFL Week 5	6	9	4	0	69.23%
NFL Week 6	-2.5	4	7	0	36.36%
NFL Week 7	2	2	2	0	50.00%
NFL Week 8	1	8	4	0	66.67%
NFL Week 9	4.5	7	6	2	53.85%
	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	69.5	164	108	8	60.29%
3 Unit Bets	18	12	6	1	66.67%
2.5 Unit Bets	2.5	15	14	2	51.72%
2 Unit Bets	10	22	17	0	56.41%
1.5 Unit Bets	18	26	14	3	65.00%
1 Unit Bets	10	38	28	1	57.58%
0.5 Unit Bets	11	51	29	1	63.75%

LFG this weekend

 

[PappyOSU]

Final Composite Scores - CFB Week 11

Pick	Source Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Alabama -11.5	13	61	3 (Max Bet)
Uconn +14	11	60	3 (Max Bet)
Arkansas +3.5	16	58	2.5
Penn St -10.5	10	55	2.5
Wake Forest -4	11	51	2.5
UCLA -19.5	9	48	2
Rutgers +10	9	45	2
Louisville +7	10	42	2
Vanderbilt +17.5	7	36	1.5
Iowa St -1.5	8	33	1.5
Baylor -2.5	7	29	1
Ga St -13.5	6	28	1
Oregon -12	12	22	1
Utah -24	6	20	1
Army/Troy Under 45	5	NA	1
Tennessee -19.5	6	18	0.5
Wisconsin +1.5	6	15	0.5
WVU +8.5	6	15	0.5

*2 max bets this week. Alabama is going to dominate and overwhelm this game. They are pissed off with blood in the water. They are on CFP life support but there is still a glimmer out there maybe. It's not pack in the bags time yet for them and there is no reason the line should be within 2 TDs. The other max play Uconn was more of an un-opposed pick as there was just one source of input that liked Liberty tomorrow compared to 11 sources who took Uconn. Don't argue with that differential and fire away.

*Texas -7 and USF +17.5 just missed the cut. Consider those the Leans. Also Indiana/Ohio State over 61 was scratched due to weather forecast looking like rain for most of the game and some injury concerns at RB for OSU. If not for the weather that one was a slam dunk, and with minimal wind ill be considering this one closely around gametime. If its decent out Ohio State might hit that number themselves. They are pissed off too after last week, there is still no look ahead almost by default after last weeks performance against northwestern, and only limited weeks to get better before Michigan comes to town. Also Kevin Wilson is calling the plays.. there is no love lost between him and Indiana. This one gets ugly early.

*Texas 1h -4 was probably the most popular first half ive seen all year. I dont have the capacity to tackle the 1h bets quite yet but ill get there. If you wanted to bet the TCU/Texas game maybe this is the way to go, especially given the size of the horseshoe that TCU has up their prison wallet late in games.

Everything else seems pretty normal. Would have liked to see fewer than 19 plays but no sense in backing down now. It just is what it is. Set your unit amounts within reason, and fire away at the board. LFG.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff Pappy, Good luck!