Pappy
Well-Known Member
Week 0: 2-1 (+0.5 units)
Week 1: TBD
Year 7 of my composite betting system gets off to a profitable start which of course I will take, but I wanted to take this time to highlight the importance of the Juice aka the Vig.
The previous 6 years all time record now sits at 1241-986-51 (56%) and +377 units. That is about as good of a historical record as you will find out there (humbly ask you to please correct me if that's not the case) but the point I'm getting at and what makes me sick, is what it all looks like after you suck out the juice.
I will admit I didn't fully understand how misleading profit in units can be, especially in a high volume betting system like mine. High volume does an outstanding job of washing out risk and I am not going to change my approach too much, but man, the more you bet.. the more you pay for it..
The chart accounts for the juice on all bets. Meaning on average when I bet $100 I could either:
A) win $91.91
B) lose $100
C) push for $0
Scale those numbers accordingly for how many units you bet on each game and the juice you get the bet at. Note that the TOTAL row at the top is a linear ROI assuming I continued to bet $100 on every bet from 2019 to 2024 without any deviations.
So last year in 2024 after 525 total bets, the chart shows I was up 47.5 units @ $100 per unit. GREAT RIGHT? Well it doesnt mean I made $4,750. After I subtracted out the juice I only made $727. Books are Crooks
This somewhat depressing reality is a great reminder to everyone... make sure you are shopping for the best possible prices on your bets! Open up accounts at a few different sportsbooks and create a competitive market for yourself when you place wagers. Ill do my best to help you all along the way. Now LFG
Week 1: TBD
Year 7 of my composite betting system gets off to a profitable start which of course I will take, but I wanted to take this time to highlight the importance of the Juice aka the Vig.
The previous 6 years all time record now sits at 1241-986-51 (56%) and +377 units. That is about as good of a historical record as you will find out there (humbly ask you to please correct me if that's not the case) but the point I'm getting at and what makes me sick, is what it all looks like after you suck out the juice.
I will admit I didn't fully understand how misleading profit in units can be, especially in a high volume betting system like mine. High volume does an outstanding job of washing out risk and I am not going to change my approach too much, but man, the more you bet.. the more you pay for it..
| ALL TIME RECORD | $100/unit | |||||||||
| Season | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Total Bets | Win % | P&L Units | Start Bankroll | P&L Dollars | End Bankroll | ROI |
| Total | 1241 | 986 | 51 | 2278 | 56% | 377 | $5,000 | $21,145.45 | $26,145.45 | 423% |
| 2024 | 270 | 247 | 8 | 525 | 52% | 47.5 | $5,000 | $727.27 | $5,727.27 | 15% |
| 2023 | 186 | 166 | 7 | 359 | 53% | 54.5 | $5,000 | $2,577.27 | $7,577.27 | 52% |
| 2022 | 266 | 191 | 14 | 471 | 58% | 106 | $5,000 | $6,863.64 | $11,863.64 | 137% |
| 2021 | 164 | 115 | 6 | 285 | 59% | 61 | $5,000 | $4,359.09 | $9,359.09 | 87% |
| 2020 | 137 | 120 | 6 | 263 | 53% | 23 | $5,000 | $436.36 | $5,436.36 | 9% |
| 2019 | 218 | 147 | 10 | 375 | 60% | 85 | $5,000 | $6,181.82 | $11,181.82 | 124% |
The chart accounts for the juice on all bets. Meaning on average when I bet $100 I could either:
A) win $91.91
B) lose $100
C) push for $0
Scale those numbers accordingly for how many units you bet on each game and the juice you get the bet at. Note that the TOTAL row at the top is a linear ROI assuming I continued to bet $100 on every bet from 2019 to 2024 without any deviations.
So last year in 2024 after 525 total bets, the chart shows I was up 47.5 units @ $100 per unit. GREAT RIGHT? Well it doesnt mean I made $4,750. After I subtracted out the juice I only made $727. Books are Crooks
This somewhat depressing reality is a great reminder to everyone... make sure you are shopping for the best possible prices on your bets! Open up accounts at a few different sportsbooks and create a competitive market for yourself when you place wagers. Ill do my best to help you all along the way. Now LFG
