PaintCrew Week 9 YTD 51-46 +5.875

[PaintCrew]

Week 9....most importantly less than 2 weeks to hoops. Can't believe we are at this point already. It's flown by as I've pushed $ back and forth all over the place.

Bye week for Purdue and they need it in an absurd way. A couple extra injuries (per normal) that came out of the Wisky game that likely will matter but all eyes basically for Purdue will be on Illinois in a couple weeks to decide the B1G West crown as I don't see Purdue dropping another game outside of that. Who would've thought....

1.5* Huskers +7.5
1.5* WVU +7.5 (I love this TCU team and still am profitable on them but at some point the opposing team injury luck ends right? This is too high.)
1.5* Sparty +22.5

More to come

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL Paint
I'm trying to pull that WVU trigger as well :shake:

 

[lvmike32]

Hey PC, understand the WV play but man they can't stop anyone this year (except VTech). The thing I keep reading about TCU is how tired they must be due to their recent tough stretch, etc. (as much mental). But I really don't think so. They are right there for a shot at the NC - those kids are sky high as they know if they win out they are pretty much in the Playoff. They may lose or not cover vs. WV but I think WV will have to score a bunch. GL as always. Can't wait for CBB.

 

[PaintCrew]

Hey PC, understand the WV play but man they can't stop anyone this year (except VTech). The thing I keep reading about TCU is how tired they must be due to their recent tough stretch, etc. (as much mental). But I really don't think so. They are right there for a shot at the NC - those kids are sky high as they know if they win out they are pretty much in the Playoff. They may lose or not cover vs. WV but I think WV will have to score a bunch. GL as always. Can't wait for CBB.

I simply think the line is inflated mainly due to all the recent breaks leading to W's from TCU and some very misleading final scores IMO. Two weeks ago an equal team in my eyes (Baylor) laid 3.5 in this same venue.

I love TCU but it's only because of that offense side of the ball. I'll be on WVU TT's across the board when they arrive to go with it. They (WVU) may not win or even cover but the one thing i'm banking on is scoring a bunch. TCU would probably be on a string of 4 straight 40 points allowed games without the QB injury luck they've been on. WVU pushes 40 here is how i'm seeing it.....maybe TCU still puts up 50 to beat me but I'm guessing i'll still end up profitable on it.

Getting close man! Definitely ready to see how it all plays out this year that's for sure!

 

[lvmike32]

Yeah i love betting tt. With big dogs it almost seems the better bet i.e. they wont cover the spread unless they cover their tt. I was looking at wv tt too as completely agree tcu defense is bad. Ill be on that with you.

 

[lvmike32]

also just put 1.5u on WSU O23.5 tonight vs. Utah. Ward is same type of QB as UCLA who ran through Utah like a knife through butter - and Utah defense way down this year IMO. Weather seems ok. Looks like WV will be around 31ish. Wish I could bet tt early in week.

 

[PaintCrew]

also just put 1.5u on WSU O23.5 tonight vs. Utah. Ward is same type of QB as UCLA who ran through Utah like a knife through butter - and Utah defense way down this year IMO. Weather seems ok. Looks like WV will be around 31ish. Wish I could bet tt early in week.

don't mind the WSU TT at all there. Might take a deeper look

Yeah 31 or below is what i really want on WVU...

a juiced 1H 14 would be amazing as well

 

[lvmike32]

don't mind the WSU TT at all there. Might take a deeper look

Yeah 31 or below is what i really want on WVU...

a juiced 1H 14 would be amazing as well

Yeah let me know if you see something on WSU i.e. injury, etc. I couldn't find anything. Looks like it will be chilly but no rain or wind. I have Utah Over 9 on RSW and also put a little on them to win the NC. So I thought they were going to be really good but they've been a huge disappointment to me, right there with AF, Minnesota, A&M and the like. I watched them play SDSU when SDSU QB went down - they killed them but I just wasn't impressed. And they were pathetic vs. UCLA.

Just think 23.5 is way too low and really like Ward. Utah should score a lot on WSU's pathetic D so they will have to keep up. We'll see. I almost always lose these "strong feel" games I have. Hence only 1.5u. Lol.

Can't wait to see that 7'5" kid play for Purdue this year. Usually those guys can't walk and chew gum.

 

[PaintCrew]

1.5* WVU TT O31

 

[PaintCrew]

Yeah let me know if you see something on WSU i.e. injury, etc. I couldn't find anything. Looks like it will be chilly but no rain or wind. I have Utah Over 9 on RSW and also put a little on them to win the NC. So I thought they were going to be really good but they've been a huge disappointment to me, right there with AF, Minnesota, A&M and the like. I watched them play SDSU when SDSU QB went down - they killed them but I just wasn't impressed. And they were pathetic vs. UCLA.

Just think 23.5 is way too low and really like Ward. Utah should score a lot on WSU's pathetic D so they will have to keep up. We'll see. I almost always lose these "strong feel" games I have. Hence only 1.5u. Lol.

Can't wait to see that 7'5" kid play for Purdue this year. Usually those guys can't walk and chew gum.

Apologies @lvmike32 I ended up not having time to dig in at all and stayed off. Hopefully at least the Utah W keeps you and I (and many others) towards a push at worst on the RSW.

Yeah you've seen the kid play (Edey) but it's just one more year of development for him (year 4 of organized basketball in his life). Each year it's been pretty dramatic improvement. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out for him as he's got every opportunity this year to put up pretty ridiculous numbers (almost out of necessity as well) with his likely utilization and a team full of 40% 3PT shooters around him.

 

[B.A.R.]

Apologies @lvmike32 I ended up not having time to dig in at all and stayed off. Hopefully at least the Utah W keeps you and I (and many others) towards a push at worst on the RSW.

Yeah you've seen the kid play (Edey) but it's just one more year of development for him (year 4 of organized basketball in his life). Each year it's been pretty dramatic improvement. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out for him as he's got every opportunity this year to put up pretty ridiculous numbers (almost out of necessity as well) with his likely utilization and a team full of 40% 3PT shooters around him.

Maybe even upset Oregon and still get the win on RSW!

 

[B.A.R.]

Doubtful... But just want a chance.

 

[PaintCrew]

Doubtful... But just want a chance.

Exactly I'll count my lucky stars if we get to Oregon at 8-2. Although the Florida game was completely given away I feel more than fortunate with the USC and WSU W's. Would love the shot to cash and never know with a conf title on the line and Bo Nix on the other side of the field....

 

[PaintCrew]

The other fun one (that really should be cashed by now) is Indy U4 that became a lot more interesting than it should've with the Illini and WKU gift W's....

 

[lvmike32]

Apologies @lvmike32 I ended up not having time to dig in at all and stayed off. Hopefully at least the Utah W keeps you and I (and many others) towards a push at worst on the RSW.

Yeah you've seen the kid play (Edey) but it's just one more year of development for him (year 4 of organized basketball in his life). Each year it's been pretty dramatic improvement. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out for him as he's got every opportunity this year to put up pretty ridiculous numbers (almost out of necessity as well) with his likely utilization and a team full of 40% 3PT shooters around him.

No apologies needed. Was hoping you stayed off and glad you did. I could write an essay on why WSU didn't get to 24 points but suffice to say whenever I post a "strong feel" it loses. I made a vow last night Never Again lol. But Whittingham not disclosing that Rising was out (he didn't even tell the TV announcers in their prep meeting the day before) was complete BS. When you bet a TT you need the other team to score - and Utah would have scored more with Rising in the game, though I thought their backup was good. Utah would also have played much faster with Rising in there giving WSU more scoring opps. With the backup they were huddling and burning clock all game. On the WSU side, I think they must have tried at least a dozen of those WR screens or whatever you want to call them - and they surely lost yardage on them. EVERY time they tried one of those passes Utah had 3 or 4 defenders around the WR and crushed him - they weren't even close to breaking for even a 5 yard gain. Yet the WSU coaches still called 2 of them on the last drive. Amazing. And you have often said how dumb Purdue plays, well last night they had nothing on WSU - see the WSU RB circling out of backfield in 2Q wide open but running out of bounds before catching a pass at the 10 (so 10 yard penalty vs 1st and goal) and then the collision/muffed punt fuck up at end of 2Q. Just really stupid playing and coaching all the way around.

All that being said, I will also admit the Utah D looked much more dominant than I expected. Those WR screens being a good example. Thought they dominated WSU pretty good on both LOS. If Ward wasn't mobile Utah would have killed him in the pocket. Still think WSU should have gotten to 24 pretty easy.

Yes only solace is the RSW - hopefully they can beat Oregon like BAR said and actually win it. I wouldn't count on it. Rising hopefully will be healthy from here.

And one more thing. Saw this last night and see it all the time. Why the fuck at the end of games when a team is trying to run out the clock by getting a FD or two (like Utah last night) does the other team play 2 deep with their safeties???? Like WSU last night. Bring in 5 DL and pack the box to stop the run - if they hit a TD pass over you who cares - you're going to lose the game anyway if they get the FD. I'll never understand that. See it all the time - and the team gets the FD and game is over.

Yeah, saw a little of Purdue and Edey last year after I started following you a little. He was decent for a guy that size and they obviously had more talented guys around him so he wasn't focus. I'd love to see a guy like that just fight for position down low and demand the ball on the box or close to the rim - like Shaq used to do. Assuming he has the talent to score when getting the ball deep in post. Thats why I hated that big guy from Boise last year - just hate soft bigs playing almost 100% outside though have to admit he's very skilled - sucked he got hurt this year. And he was too skinny to get position down low a lot. But look forward to seeing how much he's improved.

I need you to get off to a +50 unit start this year again in CBB to offset my "strong feel" losses. LOL. No pressure. Just kidding. GL again this year.

 

[PaintCrew]

Full card for now with adds:

2* Sparty +22.5/+23 (Added 0.5 at +23)
1.5* Sparty TT O16
1.5* Huskers +7.5
1.5* WVU +7.5 (I love this TCU team and still am profitable on them but at some point the opposing team injury luck ends right? This is too high.)
1.5* WVU TT O31
1* WVU 1H +4.5
1.5* Stan/UCLA U66.5
1.5* Florida +23.5
1.5* Kentucky +12
1* Penn St +15
1* Penn St TT O23
1* UNC -3
1* Cuse TT U25
1* Ole Miss -1.5

RR ML Ricking 1.375
Nebraska +235
WVU +235
Notre Dame +105
Baylor +115

Maybe more to come but that should be most of it....at least i snuck 2 small favs in there....one in honor of @carolinablue

Good luck ya'll as I probably still pay more attention to notes of a worthless Purdue/Cincy (Secret) scrimmage than all of the above

 

[PaintCrew]

since I don’t have enough dogs I’ll add this one

1.5* Rutgers +14
1* Rutgers 1H +7.5

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Line-shopping matters...22.5, good work

 

[PaintCrew]

8-7-1 -0.7 (includes -0.8 on the round robin)

TCU continues the injury luck this time with running backs and then they go for the jugular from the 40 with almost no time left to flip a nice profitable day to a loser

Not quite the absurdity of ol’ Harbaugh though with the double reverse pass with under a minute to go and up 22…seems he wanted that cover for the alums

 

[PaintCrew]

YTD 59-53 +5.175

 

[carolinablue]

8-7-1 -0.7 (includes -0.8 on the round robin)

TCU continues the injury luck this time with running backs and then they go for the jugular from the 40 with almost no time left to flip a nice profitable day to a loser

Not quite the absurdity of ol’ Harbaugh though with the double reverse pass with under a minute to go and up 22…seems he wanted that cover for the alums

It's funny I didn't get a chance to see any of the highlights until this morning, when I realized just how lucky I was in that one as I had TT O38 and TCU -6.5. Between that one and the Baylor v TT over, I have no problem admitting I definitely got more than a few breaks yesterday!