PaintCrew Week 6 (35-31 +8.525)

[PaintCrew]

Getting the homer play in early. Pretty much will play Purdue at +3.5 or better in any game the rest of the year on the schedule if OConnell is a go and he should be healthier for this one than Minny. But you can’t pay me enough to lay points with this team. Road games as a dog against equal teams is the way to play them IMO and fade them against run heavy teams as favorites at home.

Graham might also be back which would be huge defending this attack. Either way I expect it to be more Purdue like and back and forth coming down to the last possession either way. Should be a fun one

2* Purdue +4

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL PC :shake:

 

[PaintCrew]

Couple notes from Brohm this morning that likely matter. For sure the first 2 notes as Trice finally looked more like himself in coverage and I was wondering what changed:

'Optimistic' that Jalen Graham can play.

Said this was the first week Cory Trice didn't wear his knee brace and he 'looked more fluid.'

Not optimistic on Doerue to play

 

[lvmike32]

thanks PC. I played at 4 and now at 3. You seem to have a good read on them now.

How's the CBB looking? NIL and portal have as much impact as football? Can't wait.

 

[PaintCrew]

thanks PC. I played at 4 and now at 3. You seem to have a good read on them now.

How's the CBB looking? NIL and portal have as much impact as football? Can't wait.

Glad to hear you got in at 4. Feels reasonable that it could come into play being a FG type game either way and doubt it moves back up to that with positive impactful injury news on the Purdue side.

Yep CBB I needed a bit extra time to decompress after last year but after a full offseason of news/hype i'm beginning to read some tea-leaves and practice notes of folks (obviously i'm up to speed on my boys) and am chomping at the bit to get things going. NIL and portal are as impactful as ever I'd say in CBB just as it was in football and maybe even more line impactful since 1/2/3 players have such a bigger impact on teams vs football. Will be tough to get ahead of but I'd expect the first couple weeks for there to be some healthy edges if you can find them but that's easier said than done.

 

[PaintCrew]

All 1.5*

Iowa +3.5
BYU +3.5
TCU -7
Stanford +7
Northwestern +10

Probably will end up wrapping some of those dogs along with Purdue in a round robin

 

[PaintCrew]

Adding to TCU...about as much as I'll play other than super early pre-season lines and bowl games where I think I have info that the line doesn't....

Add 1.5* more to make it a full 3* on TCU -7. A little house money in hand on both of these squads but I'm kind of in love with this TCU team and think this might turn into a bit of a rout to put a bit of a downer on gameday being in town...

This doesn't help KU....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577336110526734340

 

[lvmike32]

Glad to hear you got in at 4. Feels reasonable that it could come into play being a FG type game either way and doubt it moves back up to that with positive impactful injury news on the Purdue side.

Yep CBB I needed a bit extra time to decompress after last year but after a full offseason of news/hype i'm beginning to read some tea-leaves and practice notes of folks (obviously i'm up to speed on my boys) and am chomping at the bit to get things going. NIL and portal are as impactful as ever I'd say in CBB just as it was in football and maybe even more line impactful since 1/2/3 players have such a bigger impact on teams vs football. Will be tough to get ahead of but I'd expect the first couple weeks for there to be some healthy edges if you can find them but that's easier said than done.

Purdue D looked like the Steel Curtain vs. Minnesota but it was the same old Minnesota I've always seen. Couldn't pass a lick. I know their stub RB was out. I know Little Tua will present a bigger challenge. But seems like a game Purdue can win so 4 is a nice #.

Yeah, the cappers I'm tailing this year have been consistent winners year after year. A couple do write ups and a couple don't really. The ones who do write ups have totally followed the portal since LY and all that - totally on top of it all - and they have gotten absolutely drilled this season. One even has quit posting after years of doing so at around 60%. The other guys have been their usual solid. But I guess the lesson is you might know what happened with the portal but the impact remains an unknown. You would think the impact would be greater in CBB as like you said only 1 or 2 players can turn a team around in a hurry. I remember last year you got off to about the hottest start possible and then had a draw down the last part of the year. Think the start of any season is the best time to jump on them before the bookmakers get a handle on everything. Hopefully it will go well. thanks again for posting (you got me on Cal big vs. ND few weeks ago - it's those types of wins that have kept me alive).

 

[PaintCrew]

1.5* Wash St +13

 

[PaintCrew]

Now that the overall total has drifted down a bit and pushed this below 28 I have to take a nibble

1* Purdue TT O27.5

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

lots in common out west :shake:

 

[PaintCrew]

FYI - Basically a go that Graham is playing and clearly AOC in a better place than last week

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578127744298352653

 

[B.A.R.]

Good info P...

TCU team total has me interested...

 

[PaintCrew]

Good info P...

TCU team total has me interested...

Yep I might add a unit there as well

 

[PaintCrew]

1.5* Tenny -3
1.5* Duke/GT O55
1* Auburn +28
1* Army +16.5
1* Purdue 1H TT O13.5 (-120)

 

[PaintCrew]

RR
Purdue +135
TCU -280
Stanford +165
Iowa +150

Total risk 1.375

Good luck y’all

 

[PaintCrew]

Week 6 Results​

6-6 -0.3​

41-37 +8.225​

Probably pushed it a bit on a couple adds and had second thoughts on BYU all week but decided to let 'er ride but all in all felt like the week deserved much better and the RR had a real shot of sweeping to make it pretty fun...onward

Purdue continues to be the dumbest team i've ever had to watch and still reminds me of the Brees years. Almost assured to donate 7-10 points to the other team in some sort of jaw dropping fashion but then good enough to overcome it most of time time. Thoughts later but key notes moving forward this week I think is Purdue is down 2 key OL from the past 2 weeks and leaves them with only 6 that they trust to use in the rotation. It showed quite a bit against Mary and I'd think Nebraska has enough obviously on their front to take some advantage as well.